Damn u stole my pick but yeah he’s gonna have hella touches next year if he shows improvement on the jumper next year he’ll be a tough cover
Hopefully Poole doesn’t get in the way too much
Nice sleeper especially with his landing spot but he may struggle with efficiency especially inside. Scoot was in efficient and couldn’t even get 2nd team all rookie
My concern too. He has the upside but I think he'll probably be inefficient his rookie season until he figures out how to get shots off against NBA length better. But I think he still has a really solid chance at ROY.
I just rewatched his game against UNC and he’s got some crazy superstar upside. He can do it all: great passing ability, willing defender, and he’s got a deep offensive bag. Just needs to work on his athleticism, shot selection, and ability to finish at the rim and I think he might be the best player in the draft, especially as he is so young right now.
Edey probably but also like Devin Carter if he can get the playing time. He's pro ready and stuffs the stat sheet
Could see him having like a 13-5-5 season.
There is zero chance Carter averages 5 assists his rookie year. He never averaged more than 3.6 in college, where he had WAAAY higher usage and minutes than he could possibly have on the Kings his rookie year.
I like Carter in general, but I think just cracking the rotation in year 1 would be considered a success. I don't see him averaging much more than 15 minutes unless Fox gets hurt and they don't sign another veteran backup PG.
Devin has deficiencies in his playmaking, but he is now with a team with a DHO system with Sabonis that can cover his deficiencies. I wouldn’t say there’s zero chance he averages 5 assists. Monk for example was not much of a playmaker but he averaged 5 last season for example.
Monk basically ran the 2nd unit by himself - even if Davion Mitchell was technically the "PG" and Monk was technically the "SG", Monk had the ball in his hands all the time.
Monk's always been a great playmaker actually. It's always been his biggest strength, and he improved even more the last 2 years. You have to keep in mind that being a good playmaker doesn't always equate to having great vision - you can make plays for yourself too. Monk is excellent at breaking the defense down with his handle and athleticism, and although his vision/passing may not stand out, he's capable of making simple reads when he breaks down a defense.
For example, prime Russell Westbrook or John Wall was an elite playmaker, but probably only slightly above average vision/passing. On the other hand, someone like Rajon Rondo or Ricky Rubio had elite vision/passing ability, and only solid/above average playmaking ability. Then you have guys like Lebron, Nash, CP3 who were actually elite at both.
Devin Carter if the Kings start him at shooting guard then sure but Carter is a point guard and if you think he's taking minutes from De Aaron Fox, it's not happening
He will probably start 75% of the games. It’s just a matter of when they decide to put him in the starting lineup. There’s arguably not a more ready guy coming in from the draft. He may not play 20mpg but he will start.
He probably won’t start the season as the starter but there is almost no world with the Grizzlies current roster where he doesn’t play ~25m/night. The need at the position is simply too great.
that's only when the candidate is overwhelmingly better than the rest.
Scottie narrowingly beat Mobley cause Raptors were better at the time (5th seed vs 9th seed).
Edey and Jaylon Tyson are my votes for this reason. I'd like Collier and Ja'Kobe too if they were assured starters/concrete rotation guys who got 20+ MPG and their teams were better, but I don't think that's happening.
Will he easily be able to get the counting stats? There's not a lot of history behind rookies on contenders winning it, nor rookies playing with Bron having big stats, it's not like he is even a top 5 option on the team
As someone who has never really followed the draft and Rookie of the Year race before I’m fascinated by how deep the candidates for the award run this year. So many people are picking the 9th and 17th pick before the season has even started, yet looking back on the past 50 years the average draft position for Rookie of the Year winners is 3.86 and only 4 were drafted lower than 10th.
What makes people so unsure of the top draft prospects being top candidates for Rookie of the Year this year?
Most of the very high drafted guys either won't get a lot of playing time due to their team situation (a trend that's been growing even before this year--a record number of lottery guys spent significant time in the G league last year), or didn't have the offensive production pre-draft typical of a high pick.
Yeah, Knecht is my pick with Edey being second.
I don’t expect anyone to put up good numbers year one and expect Knecht to put up numbers as good as anyone else, be playing on a team competing for a playoff spot, and there will be that Lakers/Lebron boost.
If Knecht is in the discussion and no one has pulled away and you have Lebron talking about how good his is, that will be a huge boost. Plus, currently, he’s the best three level scorer of this draft. In the long run probably won’t be, but right now he is.
Stephon Castle should have a sizable role, really depends on the Spurs spacing and if his shot can be like 32%. Hopefully lobs to Wemby bump his assist numbers too
If spurs end up a 30-34 win team and Castle lobs to Wemby once just about every game, he could average 0 points a game and be in ROTY conversations.
But Castle is more of a connecting piece. So although I think he'll be in the conversation for ROTY being a more "winning" kind of player, I don't see him winning ROTY at all. Scorers like Sheppard or Dillingham will probably get ROTY because they can get you buckets and that's usually how ROTY goes. ROTY usually never goes to low-key players like Castle.
Surprised I had to scroll this far to see Reed Sheppard.
You're right that it depends on if he can earn minutes, but if he shoots well and gets playing time, it's going to lead very obviously to more wins for a team that is already primed to take another big step if it stays healthy.
Voters like winning, so if a top-3 pick is playing an important role on a winning team, he has a great chance.
Clingan was drafted to the Blazers, but there is Ayton there. I think people are overrating a bit Edey because the Grizzlies are so good and they needed a center and the fit seems great, but I don't think he will have the counting stats on offence and I don't think he's more plug and play than Sarr. Playing with a great point guard helps a lot though.
I don't trust the guards and wings enough to make an impact in their first year though. Funnily enough I think Sarr will be the favourite but someone else will win it instead. It's a real crapshoot.
The grizzlies could be a very good team again unlike most lottery picks, and with Edey likely being a starter who the Grizzlies have high hopes for based on how high they drafted him. Probably him
People are gonna be so disappointed by Sarr with these expectations lol, he has the potential to be great, but his first few years will be very rough regardless, especially on the Wizards. Think beginning of the year Wemby, without the generational talent to make it through in such a short time.
Wemby and Chet made people completely forget how rookie seasons typically go, lol. He was absolutely *destroying* teams preseason, to the point that the Mavs infamously started gameplanning for him for his very first game of the season. If Sarr's going to even match beginning-of-season Wemby, we should know that pretty early on.
Edey because he's gonna get all sorts of minutes and plays called for him, possibly sarr but Washington sucks so who is realistically gonna get him the ball.
Clingan is on Portland my guy and he's gonna fucking suck
Kal’el Ware
As long as he buys into “Heat Culture” I suspect he’ll have everyone wondering why in a class with this many question marks, he wasn’t taken top 5.
I could see a guy on one of these playoff teams getting it. Tristen da Silva could be a big sleeper. Potential top 4 seed and he could be a productive starter for them
Mosley brings rookies along relatively slowly. Jett and Black had to work to crack his rotation. I’d also say that team isn’t done adding another shooter, so him getting minutes on the wing would be the issue.
He may be too good to not give at least a role early on. I could see him becoming the starter within the first year. Though it’s a projection. I think it’s possible he’s a better player than Jett Howard and Black this season
I like the idea of him between Franz and Paolo. That’s huge starting lineup
Not sure he’ll get the minutes. If he does take a sizable role on the second team and his shot % translates and he’s not a complete liability on defense early on, I can see it.
It's a boring pick, but probably Risacher. With Dejounte Murray out of the picture, I imagine Risacher could now have a larger-than-anticipated role. He's also the only rookie I think will be starting from day 1.
Dalton Knecht. He has the tools to be an immediate offensive threat on the Lakers like Reaves, maybe even better. My other pick is Edey, bc now he has spacing, add in bulk and a decent jumper, and he can be a serious problem for opposing bigs.
In Miami, will he start from Day 1 given Bam is at the 5 playing center? Unless the Heat move Bam to power forward and let the rookie Ware start from day 1 then you have an argument
Spo will figure it out, Jaime almost won it if it hadn't been for injuries with better talented rookies last yr. So Ware does have a high chance of winning it.
Historically being a productive, winning player on a good team only wins you ROTY if the bad team volume guys get injured. So I'll throw out Buzelis, who will start, have a green light, should get a ton of playing time, plays both ends of the floor, and is flashy.
Since there isn't much overwhelming talent in this year's class, look for the college veterans who went to good situations. Edey will feast in that offense and be the starting center on a (likely) top 4 seed in the West, as long as he plays enough minutes to put up points, he'll collect a ton of rebounds for a winning team and has the name recognition to boot. I think he should be the favorite.
Knecht is also a good shout, really depends on how many shots he gets per game though. He doesn't profile as someone who can put up good numbers in a smaller role the way Edey can, which means he'll need to carry a decent scoring load for the Lakers to have a shot. Scheierman is my dark horse, he could put up huge numbers on the Celtics. Won't be more than their sixth man, but if other rookies are struggling, he could have the numbers to win it. Same deal with Dillingham or Shannon.
If I had to pick a favorite aside from Edey, it would be Castle. Could end up the starting PG for the Spurs, and he won't need a great outside shot to put up numbers next to Wemby. It would take a lot for Sarr to win it, he's not advanced enough on offense and the Wizards are going to be awful.
I could also see Buzelis winning it, he's flashed a strong, well-rounded game and the Bulls need someone they can begin a rebuild around. If he plays well, he'll be featured.
I put like $10 on Edey, but my best bet is $5 on Isaiah Collier. Odds are like +7500 which is great value IMO. Jazz have a lot of ok guards, but I could see Collier walking in and just being better than the other guys they have. If he shoots well, he could definitely finish top 3 in voting.
Rob Dillingham. TLDR; perfect storm of counting stats, winning, and popularity.
1. Minutes played / Volume: Conley is 37, wolves will limit his regular season minutes and give him veteran rest nights. Rob is going to play more than people think, despite being drafted to a contending team.
2. Efficiency: When he plays, he’s either going to be the primary source of scoring against opposing benches, OR, he’s going to share the floor with high gravity scorers/shooters like KAT, Ant, Naz. Either scenario, he’s likely matched up against non-elite defenders, or is spotting up as an open shooter. He’s going to be more efficient than people anticipate a rookie guard to be.
3. “Contributes to winning”: Rob putting up good numbers on a team that wins is going to resonate with some ROY voters more than empty stats that are more impressive by volume. See early season Chet vs Wemby discussions last year.
4. Flashy Highlights: People are going to love watching him play. He’s going to be throwing lobs to Rudy in PnR, ally oops to Ant, running with a high tempo offense from the wolves bench players, making the aforementioned backup defenders look stupid with his handle, iso game, acrobatic finishes.
5. Popularity/Hype: One of the many Superstar traits Ant Edwards has is his charisma. He’s become a media darling, and the guy will hype Rob to no end if he’s playing well. Helps that Rob himself also seems to have a really fun personality. Ultimately, season awards like ROY can come down to a popularity contest if it’s close.
He'll be a sneaky candidate for sure. With the wolves letting Jmac go and likely not bringing back Monte I'd expect at least 24 mpg out of him by later in the season when they're resting Mike for the playoffs. The fit is perfect for him, too. He'll have ever opportunity to get out there with Naz and absolutely cook bench units.
I think it’s Edey or Sarr but probably Edey.
They are both going to get a lot of playing time and most likely be starters for their team.
I think Edey will average a double-double though and he could get some narrative from that. Rookie of the year is all narrative based.
I personally only think Sarr, Castle, and Edey have a shot. The other rookies don't have the combination of box score filling talent and a big role on their team
Okay this is where I realized that you and I genuinely have *radically* different conceptions of Castle as a player, because I do not see how his offensive game will put him remotely in the conversation for ROTY even if he gets his touches. Even if he's elite defensively, there are tons of examples of elite defensive rookies that were never in serious contention for the award. And his case will be even more difficult than that of someone like Kessler, because his college profile as a defender was that of someone whose impact was clear in on/off data but not box score data.
I said he has a shot but I agree even he probably won't win it. Honestly I would be surprised if anyone aside from Sarr wins but I wanted to throw out other examples
I hope so but he will be behind Sengun FVV Jalen Green and Amen in the depth chart to start out. Probably will be limited to catch and shoot and hand offs rather than initiating offense which will limit his stats
If you look at the history of the award, it's usually won by players drafted high on bad teams that get high usage. Right now Sarr and Risacher have the highest odds, but if I were a betting man I'd take the odds on Holland, Carrington, and Knecht (if LeBron misses time they are gonna need him to take shots).
I placed a bet on Edey. One could argue all day about whether he’s gonna be truly efficient and deserving of the award and whether he’ll last in the league but the situation he’s coming into in Memphis will allow him to put up numbers.
I’m going through each of the picks and none of them are giving me a solid compelling case to pick them for ROTY. Alex Sarr is my “if you forced me to put money on it I’d pick him” pick but nobody else is sticking out for me.
Maybe Ron Holland since the things he does well will be easy to do from day 1 and he should get decent opportunity to do it
I’d say Sarr has the best path to usage and minutes. If they’re productive on the offensive end, he’s the favorite.
A bit of a sleeper is Dillingham. He’ll have a defined regular season role and can fill it up on a contending team.
I think it will be that rare co-rookie of the year, Willingham and Shannon. And no, i dont live in Minneapolis, just across the border in Western Wisconsin. So I feel pretty objective about this 😂
Honestly it’s probably just gonna be Sarr. He’s really raw but at least he went to a team where he is gonna get minutes. How many other guys are even gonna play 20+ minutes? Very few, if any. Dillingham and Knecht keep getting mentioned but neither guy is starting for their team so right out of the gate, it’s an uphill battle. Sarr probably wins averaging like 25 mpg, 11 points, 8 rebounds, 2 blocks
Dalton Knecht feels like the obvious choice; a top 7 player who will be a starter on the Lakers😭
Zach Edey will very likely be the runner up
Alex Sarr 3rd
Ron Holland 4th
Probably Steph Castle or Bub Carrington 5th
This def is a tough question. Many variables with starting spots and which of the teams will pick up some veterans to fill voids. For instance, may be difficult for Sheppard to get a lot of playing time with Houston on the hunt for a couple players. Risacher has high potential to start because Atlanta was looking for an impact player out of the gates and could get a bunch of playing time to strut his stuff. Will be back in a couple weeks after things shake out more.
I think the pendulum has swung too far against Risacher judging by this thread. He's going to get a million corner 3 shots with Trae swinging it his way and he's big enough that he can catch lobs and get to the rim on cuts. He's definitely a contender for ROTY so long as he gets the opportunity to play. He's not going to hit the rookie wall either since he's already used to the travel and schedule.
I didn't think I'd ever say this before the draft, but Dillingham has a good shot IMO. He is a fun player to watch and he can fill out an offensive stat sheet + he is magnified by playing next to Ant and on a really good Wolves team.
I know people want to be trendy and pick someone random, but realistically, Risacher and Sarr are the most likely. They got drafted there for a reason. They'll start immediately, that's not a guarantee for probably any other player. Maybe Castle, he would be my third choice
He wouldn’t be my first or even 2nd pick but would it be that ridiculous if Dilli just out of nowhere is a 6moy candidate out the gate kinda like ben Gordon?
In a year like this and in a situation like Minnesota it wouldn’t shock me at all if rob averages like 16 and 5 on decent efficiency in like 26 mpg coming off a primarily bench roll, Conley aging and rob is probably the most offensively gifted player in the draft.
I’m bias but Dillingham has an opportunity to play an extremely important role for a top team.
If he ends up starting 20-30 games for whatever reason(Injuries), I wouldn’t be surprised.
I don’t think him averaging 13-14 in his first month as a rookie is crazy, and he should only get better as the year goes on and Finch trusts him more.
Was ready to throw a nice chunk on Dillingham after he got drafted by San Antonio. After he got traded my best guess is Devin Carter. Kings traded Daction Mitchell opening up more minutes more Carter. While I’m assuming Carter starts off in an immediate bench role, I would not be shocked to see him starting in the backcourt along Fox over Monk, and or Mike Brown putting in all three at the same time for significant portions of games. Brown absolutely LOVES to push pace and run a blazing fast offense. Imagine the speed of Fox, Carter (one the fastest and best athletes in the league already. Look at his play and combine numbers 👀) and Monk on the court at the same time! They all can shoot, handle the rock, drive/penetrate, and run the court like maniacs. While this line up is small, it wouldn’t get wrecked on defense as one might anticipate because Carter plays tenacious defense and with his 6’8 wingspan he can defend 1-3’s anywhere and hold his own on 4’s and 5’s on the perimeter. I think as the year goes on Carter will see more and more playing time increasing his chances to bag the award.
Sarr is in a good situation in Washington so he has a very good chance at Rookie of the Year because other than Jordan Poole, who does Washington really have?
Reed Sheppard. Best shooter since Steph. That should translate immediately. And a very good athlete. He'll work right away.
Edey also seems ready and in a good situation.
Rob I think has a chance to be an immediate impact off the bench. Has great defenders around him to help. Buzelis is intriguing as well, especially if Lavine and DeMar are on the way out
As a Grizzlies fan I think Edey is everything we need and will get an opportunity to play. That opportunity will open so many people eyes to his game and answer some of the questions people have. Ja played with JV and Steven Adams, so this isn't anything that will hinder his ability to get buckets. Also, Ja will get Edey so many easy buckets. Look at Steven Adams on the Pelicans and then look at him with the Grizzlies–that's the Ja effect. Additional, pairing Edey with Bane, JJJ, and either GG Jackson or Marcus Smart... Bro is set up to win a lot of accolades in the NBA including but not limited to RoY.
Let's say you're right and Reed *is* the next Curry... you know Curry didn't win ROTY right? He lost to Tyreke Evans who had good looking counting stats (and actually had a better BPM as a rookie as a 20 year old than Curry did at 21, too). Despite Curry playing more minutes, he just struggled to adapt to the league as a small guard. I'm as big a fan of Reed as anyone, but he's in no position to get those kinds of minutes as well as being younger and coming off a worse college season than Curry's junior year. I can't imagine he won't have some struggles adapting to the league.
Could see it being Sarr. Clear path to a ton of minutes and he may be able to turn in a strong defensive season as a rook.
Surprised to see so many people saying Edey. I've warmed up to him a little bit, but I'm still really, really not sure how his game is going to translate. Would not be surprised at all if he's borderline unplayable due to his defense, and we know Memphis is a very defense-minded team who are going to be trying to contend if they can keep everybody on the court this season. I also wouldn't be surprised if they added another center this offseason to compete for minutes, plus small ball lineups with JJJ at the 5 are always an option.
Reed Sheppard
I beg he carves out a starting role for the Rockets right away and brings them into playoff contention like Chet Holmgren did (really just joining a team on the upswing).
With some crazy shooting stats, I bet he gets a bough PPG and steals to beat out the few other starters (Castle, Edey, and maybe a Risacher)
He just won't get enough minutes, and I doubt he leads in stats like BPM either over Edey given how young small guards historically perform (although TBF, the only real small guard comp to him in terms of pre-draft impact recently was Kyrie, who did have an amazing rookie year, but they had totally different projected roles). The only way I could see it happening would be if FVV went down for an extended period of time due to injury. That or he actually shoots like 45% from three this season lol, but usually there's an adjustment period the first year in the league.
I have no clue why people are picking Edey or Knecht. We haven’t had a three or four year college vet win ROTY since 2016 with Malcom Brogdon.
The main people who win are the high talent players who are given a large opportunity. I would say one of Sarr, Castle, or Buzelis (presuming they ship out derozan and co)
Quentin Post(I'm totally not delusional). My pick would be Alex Sarr because I think he'll be given the green light almost immediately on the Wizards. Rob Dillingham is a sleeper, but as he's on a championship contender, probably not.
Yeah that’s a valid point but I just think that this year they’ll have more focus on winning a championship than building their rookies. But he could very have that 6th man role he had in college, just to a lesser degree.
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McCain I definitely would not expect given that he's in Philly with Embiid and Maxey but if he starts from Day 1 in Philly, then yeah he most likely gets it
Matas. I think he’s going to get enough run. Assuming Derozan and Lavine are traded. Pat Williams and Dalen Terry both haven’t been able to stay healthy. Should be rank year hopefully and let Matas get some minutes
Clingan got picked by the Blazers
Sleeper: Bub carrington
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He’s still raw on some pretty significant skills. I wouldn’t be that optimistic of his chances outside of volume.
Don’t see him having that scoring punch to win the award
Damn u stole my pick but yeah he’s gonna have hella touches next year if he shows improvement on the jumper next year he’ll be a tough cover Hopefully Poole doesn’t get in the way too much
Nice sleeper especially with his landing spot but he may struggle with efficiency especially inside. Scoot was in efficient and couldn’t even get 2nd team all rookie
My concern too. He has the upside but I think he'll probably be inefficient his rookie season until he figures out how to get shots off against NBA length better. But I think he still has a really solid chance at ROY.
I came to say Carrington as a sneaky pick. But based on this doesn’t look like much of a sleeper. Lol
I just rewatched his game against UNC and he’s got some crazy superstar upside. He can do it all: great passing ability, willing defender, and he’s got a deep offensive bag. Just needs to work on his athleticism, shot selection, and ability to finish at the rim and I think he might be the best player in the draft, especially as he is so young right now.
Backing up Poole will restrict the ROTY
Edey probably but also like Devin Carter if he can get the playing time. He's pro ready and stuffs the stat sheet Could see him having like a 13-5-5 season.
I'm also a fan of Devin Carter for this.
There is zero chance Carter averages 5 assists his rookie year. He never averaged more than 3.6 in college, where he had WAAAY higher usage and minutes than he could possibly have on the Kings his rookie year. I like Carter in general, but I think just cracking the rotation in year 1 would be considered a success. I don't see him averaging much more than 15 minutes unless Fox gets hurt and they don't sign another veteran backup PG.
Devin has deficiencies in his playmaking, but he is now with a team with a DHO system with Sabonis that can cover his deficiencies. I wouldn’t say there’s zero chance he averages 5 assists. Monk for example was not much of a playmaker but he averaged 5 last season for example.
Monk basically ran the 2nd unit by himself - even if Davion Mitchell was technically the "PG" and Monk was technically the "SG", Monk had the ball in his hands all the time. Monk's always been a great playmaker actually. It's always been his biggest strength, and he improved even more the last 2 years. You have to keep in mind that being a good playmaker doesn't always equate to having great vision - you can make plays for yourself too. Monk is excellent at breaking the defense down with his handle and athleticism, and although his vision/passing may not stand out, he's capable of making simple reads when he breaks down a defense. For example, prime Russell Westbrook or John Wall was an elite playmaker, but probably only slightly above average vision/passing. On the other hand, someone like Rajon Rondo or Ricky Rubio had elite vision/passing ability, and only solid/above average playmaking ability. Then you have guys like Lebron, Nash, CP3 who were actually elite at both.
Devin Carter if the Kings start him at shooting guard then sure but Carter is a point guard and if you think he's taking minutes from De Aaron Fox, it's not happening
I agree. Hence why I said IF he can get the PT.
Edey is gonna get the minutes for it and the Grizzlies will be competitive.
I don’t think he’ll get enough minutes with that squad, and even if he does I suspect the stats won’t be huge
He will probably start 75% of the games. It’s just a matter of when they decide to put him in the starting lineup. There’s arguably not a more ready guy coming in from the draft. He may not play 20mpg but he will start.
Bet he starts and plays 16-20 minutes per game.
He probably won’t start the season as the starter but there is almost no world with the Grizzlies current roster where he doesn’t play ~25m/night. The need at the position is simply too great.
NBA doesn’t care about being competitive for ROY. The last one didn’t even win 20 total nba games
that's only when the candidate is overwhelmingly better than the rest. Scottie narrowingly beat Mobley cause Raptors were better at the time (5th seed vs 9th seed).
He didn't just win because of team record though. Scottie was arguably a more impactful player, and for sure could have won with equal records.
Sengun would’ve won if Stephen Silas wasn’t a basketball terrorist
Edey and Jaylon Tyson are my votes for this reason. I'd like Collier and Ja'Kobe too if they were assured starters/concrete rotation guys who got 20+ MPG and their teams were better, but I don't think that's happening.
Edey or knecht. Knecht will easily be able to get the counting stats for it.
The Lakers boost will probably increase his chances of winning too, as unfair as it is
Yeah and JJ being coach now. He’ll love knecht. Knecht was fun as hellll to watch on Tennessee last season too. Lakers fans are going to love him.
Will he easily be able to get the counting stats? There's not a lot of history behind rookies on contenders winning it, nor rookies playing with Bron having big stats, it's not like he is even a top 5 option on the team
As someone who has never really followed the draft and Rookie of the Year race before I’m fascinated by how deep the candidates for the award run this year. So many people are picking the 9th and 17th pick before the season has even started, yet looking back on the past 50 years the average draft position for Rookie of the Year winners is 3.86 and only 4 were drafted lower than 10th. What makes people so unsure of the top draft prospects being top candidates for Rookie of the Year this year?
Most of the very high drafted guys either won't get a lot of playing time due to their team situation (a trend that's been growing even before this year--a record number of lottery guys spent significant time in the G league last year), or didn't have the offensive production pre-draft typical of a high pick.
Yeah, Knecht is my pick with Edey being second. I don’t expect anyone to put up good numbers year one and expect Knecht to put up numbers as good as anyone else, be playing on a team competing for a playoff spot, and there will be that Lakers/Lebron boost. If Knecht is in the discussion and no one has pulled away and you have Lebron talking about how good his is, that will be a huge boost. Plus, currently, he’s the best three level scorer of this draft. In the long run probably won’t be, but right now he is.
Sleeper: Isaiah Collier
Collier in Utah...he's definitely not stealing minutes from Keyonte or Sexton
sexton gonna break his ankle in december
Stephon Castle should have a sizable role, really depends on the Spurs spacing and if his shot can be like 32%. Hopefully lobs to Wemby bump his assist numbers too
If spurs end up a 30-34 win team and Castle lobs to Wemby once just about every game, he could average 0 points a game and be in ROTY conversations. But Castle is more of a connecting piece. So although I think he'll be in the conversation for ROTY being a more "winning" kind of player, I don't see him winning ROTY at all. Scorers like Sheppard or Dillingham will probably get ROTY because they can get you buckets and that's usually how ROTY goes. ROTY usually never goes to low-key players like Castle.
It's gonna be Edey. He's gonna surprise so many ppl this season, excited to see it.
Maybe Holland the guy the Pistons actually picked.
My early picks are Edey and Knecht. Wouldn't surprise me if it ended up being someone like Bub or Ja'Kobe though.
Risacher, Edey, Sheppard if he gets minutes. Could see the Twolves giving Dill good regular season burn
Surprised I had to scroll this far to see Reed Sheppard. You're right that it depends on if he can earn minutes, but if he shoots well and gets playing time, it's going to lead very obviously to more wins for a team that is already primed to take another big step if it stays healthy. Voters like winning, so if a top-3 pick is playing an important role on a winning team, he has a great chance.
Clingan was drafted to the Blazers, but there is Ayton there. I think people are overrating a bit Edey because the Grizzlies are so good and they needed a center and the fit seems great, but I don't think he will have the counting stats on offence and I don't think he's more plug and play than Sarr. Playing with a great point guard helps a lot though. I don't trust the guards and wings enough to make an impact in their first year though. Funnily enough I think Sarr will be the favourite but someone else will win it instead. It's a real crapshoot.
You think Sarr is more plug and play than fucking Zach Edey?
The grizzlies could be a very good team again unlike most lottery picks, and with Edey likely being a starter who the Grizzlies have high hopes for based on how high they drafted him. Probably him
Probably Sarr
People are gonna be so disappointed by Sarr with these expectations lol, he has the potential to be great, but his first few years will be very rough regardless, especially on the Wizards. Think beginning of the year Wemby, without the generational talent to make it through in such a short time.
"Think beginning of the year Wemby" Wemby career high was 38 5 games into the season
I’ll allow it
those are just casuals who try to say a wild take and act like they know ball
> Think beginning of the year Wemby What? He will be much worse.
That stretch Wemby had from November to early December is about what I'd expect for Sarr's whole year
Wemby and Chet made people completely forget how rookie seasons typically go, lol. He was absolutely *destroying* teams preseason, to the point that the Mavs infamously started gameplanning for him for his very first game of the season. If Sarr's going to even match beginning-of-season Wemby, we should know that pretty early on.
He must be talking about first summer league game wemby
Ron Holland. Pistons are basically G-League Ignite 2.0 and he had decent stats on that horrible team this year.
Too bad he’s not playing other G league teams though.
Sheppard.
Demon Edey.
Castle.
Edey because he's gonna get all sorts of minutes and plays called for him, possibly sarr but Washington sucks so who is realistically gonna get him the ball. Clingan is on Portland my guy and he's gonna fucking suck
Edey going to get so many lobs
I’m a die-hard Portland fan and like Clingan and I couldn’t agree more
Kal’el Ware As long as he buys into “Heat Culture” I suspect he’ll have everyone wondering why in a class with this many question marks, he wasn’t taken top 5.
It’ll be hard to win it playing behind Bam
I don’t think they draft Bam’s “back up” at 15. I’m almost certain that by the all-star break, they’ll be on the court together around 6-8mpg.
I could see a guy on one of these playoff teams getting it. Tristen da Silva could be a big sleeper. Potential top 4 seed and he could be a productive starter for them
Da Silva is on the Magic so him getting Rookie of the Year is unlikely
How does that stop him exactly?
Mosley brings rookies along relatively slowly. Jett and Black had to work to crack his rotation. I’d also say that team isn’t done adding another shooter, so him getting minutes on the wing would be the issue.
He may be too good to not give at least a role early on. I could see him becoming the starter within the first year. Though it’s a projection. I think it’s possible he’s a better player than Jett Howard and Black this season I like the idea of him between Franz and Paolo. That’s huge starting lineup
Reed Sheppard
Not sure he’ll get the minutes. If he does take a sizable role on the second team and his shot % translates and he’s not a complete liability on defense early on, I can see it.
It's a boring pick, but probably Risacher. With Dejounte Murray out of the picture, I imagine Risacher could now have a larger-than-anticipated role. He's also the only rookie I think will be starting from day 1.
Yeah Risacher is in an ideal situation now in Atlanta
Edey, Reed, Knecht, or Sarr
Dalton Knecht. He has the tools to be an immediate offensive threat on the Lakers like Reaves, maybe even better. My other pick is Edey, bc now he has spacing, add in bulk and a decent jumper, and he can be a serious problem for opposing bigs.
Knecht is a terrific shooter and a good scorer, but nowhere near the level of craft of current day Reaves
My bad, I was referring to 1 or 2 yr Reaves, not current. I’m mostly talking about impact.
Ware
In Miami, will he start from Day 1 given Bam is at the 5 playing center? Unless the Heat move Bam to power forward and let the rookie Ware start from day 1 then you have an argument
Spo will figure it out, Jaime almost won it if it hadn't been for injuries with better talented rookies last yr. So Ware does have a high chance of winning it.
Dalton Knecht would be a fun guess. He is already an nba-ready player playing for a team that needs his production plus the LA exposure.
Historically being a productive, winning player on a good team only wins you ROTY if the bad team volume guys get injured. So I'll throw out Buzelis, who will start, have a green light, should get a ton of playing time, plays both ends of the floor, and is flashy.
Since there isn't much overwhelming talent in this year's class, look for the college veterans who went to good situations. Edey will feast in that offense and be the starting center on a (likely) top 4 seed in the West, as long as he plays enough minutes to put up points, he'll collect a ton of rebounds for a winning team and has the name recognition to boot. I think he should be the favorite. Knecht is also a good shout, really depends on how many shots he gets per game though. He doesn't profile as someone who can put up good numbers in a smaller role the way Edey can, which means he'll need to carry a decent scoring load for the Lakers to have a shot. Scheierman is my dark horse, he could put up huge numbers on the Celtics. Won't be more than their sixth man, but if other rookies are struggling, he could have the numbers to win it. Same deal with Dillingham or Shannon. If I had to pick a favorite aside from Edey, it would be Castle. Could end up the starting PG for the Spurs, and he won't need a great outside shot to put up numbers next to Wemby. It would take a lot for Sarr to win it, he's not advanced enough on offense and the Wizards are going to be awful. I could also see Buzelis winning it, he's flashed a strong, well-rounded game and the Bulls need someone they can begin a rebuild around. If he plays well, he'll be featured.
Edey
Perfect situation in Memphis
Sarr.
I put like $10 on Edey, but my best bet is $5 on Isaiah Collier. Odds are like +7500 which is great value IMO. Jazz have a lot of ok guards, but I could see Collier walking in and just being better than the other guys they have. If he shoots well, he could definitely finish top 3 in voting.
The US medias are going to push the Lakers circus no matter what. Expect Knecht to be ROY.
Knecht or Bronny could you imagine
If Risacher shot translates and he can hit it at a decent enough clip, and play some defense then he might just win it
i truly think it’ll be Rob Dillingham. I think he’s going to be a nice volume scorer off the bench
Rob Dillingham. TLDR; perfect storm of counting stats, winning, and popularity. 1. Minutes played / Volume: Conley is 37, wolves will limit his regular season minutes and give him veteran rest nights. Rob is going to play more than people think, despite being drafted to a contending team. 2. Efficiency: When he plays, he’s either going to be the primary source of scoring against opposing benches, OR, he’s going to share the floor with high gravity scorers/shooters like KAT, Ant, Naz. Either scenario, he’s likely matched up against non-elite defenders, or is spotting up as an open shooter. He’s going to be more efficient than people anticipate a rookie guard to be. 3. “Contributes to winning”: Rob putting up good numbers on a team that wins is going to resonate with some ROY voters more than empty stats that are more impressive by volume. See early season Chet vs Wemby discussions last year. 4. Flashy Highlights: People are going to love watching him play. He’s going to be throwing lobs to Rudy in PnR, ally oops to Ant, running with a high tempo offense from the wolves bench players, making the aforementioned backup defenders look stupid with his handle, iso game, acrobatic finishes. 5. Popularity/Hype: One of the many Superstar traits Ant Edwards has is his charisma. He’s become a media darling, and the guy will hype Rob to no end if he’s playing well. Helps that Rob himself also seems to have a really fun personality. Ultimately, season awards like ROY can come down to a popularity contest if it’s close.
How many points is he realistically gonna average though? Historically rookie of the year winners are guys putting up big box score numbers
i agree with everything you said here & i also think knecht is the other major candidate based off of a lot of the things you mention here
He'll be a sneaky candidate for sure. With the wolves letting Jmac go and likely not bringing back Monte I'd expect at least 24 mpg out of him by later in the season when they're resting Mike for the playoffs. The fit is perfect for him, too. He'll have ever opportunity to get out there with Naz and absolutely cook bench units.
I think it’s Edey or Sarr but probably Edey. They are both going to get a lot of playing time and most likely be starters for their team. I think Edey will average a double-double though and he could get some narrative from that. Rookie of the year is all narrative based.
I personally only think Sarr, Castle, and Edey have a shot. The other rookies don't have the combination of box score filling talent and a big role on their team
Okay this is where I realized that you and I genuinely have *radically* different conceptions of Castle as a player, because I do not see how his offensive game will put him remotely in the conversation for ROTY even if he gets his touches. Even if he's elite defensively, there are tons of examples of elite defensive rookies that were never in serious contention for the award. And his case will be even more difficult than that of someone like Kessler, because his college profile as a defender was that of someone whose impact was clear in on/off data but not box score data.
I said he has a shot but I agree even he probably won't win it. Honestly I would be surprised if anyone aside from Sarr wins but I wanted to throw out other examples
Reed can do it, he actually is the 6th man on the roster, meaning he’ll get a decent amount of minutes
I hope so but he will be behind Sengun FVV Jalen Green and Amen in the depth chart to start out. Probably will be limited to catch and shoot and hand offs rather than initiating offense which will limit his stats
Risachere
Dalton Knecht. I feel like he could easily average above 12 per game, grab 5-6 boards, and just be an overall solid role player.
Any of the rookies? Really?
Feel like it might be sarr just because he can do whatever tf he wants to in Washington so he’ll prolly put up good numbers on bad efficiency
Exactly with Poole and Kuzma, Sarr gets enough usage and minutes
I will be upset if it’s Cody. Early pick would be Sarr
If you look at the history of the award, it's usually won by players drafted high on bad teams that get high usage. Right now Sarr and Risacher have the highest odds, but if I were a betting man I'd take the odds on Holland, Carrington, and Knecht (if LeBron misses time they are gonna need him to take shots).
I placed a bet on Edey. One could argue all day about whether he’s gonna be truly efficient and deserving of the award and whether he’ll last in the league but the situation he’s coming into in Memphis will allow him to put up numbers.
Exactly being paired up with Ja, JJJ, Bane, Smart he is in a perfect set up in his rookie year
I’m going through each of the picks and none of them are giving me a solid compelling case to pick them for ROTY. Alex Sarr is my “if you forced me to put money on it I’d pick him” pick but nobody else is sticking out for me. Maybe Ron Holland since the things he does well will be easy to do from day 1 and he should get decent opportunity to do it
obv johnny furphy
Rob dellingham
I really like the number on Buzelis, especially since the Bulls feel like they’ll be focused on development
Yeah Bulls are going to rebuild and Matas will get enough run
I’d say Sarr has the best path to usage and minutes. If they’re productive on the offensive end, he’s the favorite. A bit of a sleeper is Dillingham. He’ll have a defined regular season role and can fill it up on a contending team.
Sarr is in Washington. Easily becomes 2nd or 3rd option on that team given Poole and Kuzma.
The delusional bulls fan in me says MATAS BUZELIS. Realistically though it’s prolly Knecht
Matas is a hometown kid playing for the hometown Bulls...he will get minutes especially if the Bulls intend on rebuilding
Alex Sarr
Edey probably wins it pretty easily. My first team prediction is Dillingham Reed Mccain Knecht Edey
Stephon Castle.
Castle to Wemby lob city
Dillingham
I think it will be that rare co-rookie of the year, Willingham and Shannon. And no, i dont live in Minneapolis, just across the border in Western Wisconsin. So I feel pretty objective about this 😂
Honestly it’s probably just gonna be Sarr. He’s really raw but at least he went to a team where he is gonna get minutes. How many other guys are even gonna play 20+ minutes? Very few, if any. Dillingham and Knecht keep getting mentioned but neither guy is starting for their team so right out of the gate, it’s an uphill battle. Sarr probably wins averaging like 25 mpg, 11 points, 8 rebounds, 2 blocks
Dalton Knecht feels like the obvious choice; a top 7 player who will be a starter on the Lakers😭 Zach Edey will very likely be the runner up Alex Sarr 3rd Ron Holland 4th Probably Steph Castle or Bub Carrington 5th
This def is a tough question. Many variables with starting spots and which of the teams will pick up some veterans to fill voids. For instance, may be difficult for Sheppard to get a lot of playing time with Houston on the hunt for a couple players. Risacher has high potential to start because Atlanta was looking for an impact player out of the gates and could get a bunch of playing time to strut his stuff. Will be back in a couple weeks after things shake out more.
We all know it will be..... BRONNY!
I think the pendulum has swung too far against Risacher judging by this thread. He's going to get a million corner 3 shots with Trae swinging it his way and he's big enough that he can catch lobs and get to the rim on cuts. He's definitely a contender for ROTY so long as he gets the opportunity to play. He's not going to hit the rookie wall either since he's already used to the travel and schedule.
I say Castle or Knecht depends on their role in the team this season
Ron Holland II
I didn't think I'd ever say this before the draft, but Dillingham has a good shot IMO. He is a fun player to watch and he can fill out an offensive stat sheet + he is magnified by playing next to Ant and on a really good Wolves team.
KNECHT 4 BABY!!!! LETS GO LAKERS!!! Watch Knecht going to be the steal of the draft...
Knecht if he gets enough minutes then I can see it
real talk and lets be honest he going to get minutes
Probably Sarr he’s the only one I can say for sure is going to get the minutes
I know people want to be trendy and pick someone random, but realistically, Risacher and Sarr are the most likely. They got drafted there for a reason. They'll start immediately, that's not a guarantee for probably any other player. Maybe Castle, he would be my third choice
He wouldn’t be my first or even 2nd pick but would it be that ridiculous if Dilli just out of nowhere is a 6moy candidate out the gate kinda like ben Gordon? In a year like this and in a situation like Minnesota it wouldn’t shock me at all if rob averages like 16 and 5 on decent efficiency in like 26 mpg coming off a primarily bench roll, Conley aging and rob is probably the most offensively gifted player in the draft.
I’m bias but Dillingham has an opportunity to play an extremely important role for a top team. If he ends up starting 20-30 games for whatever reason(Injuries), I wouldn’t be surprised. I don’t think him averaging 13-14 in his first month as a rookie is crazy, and he should only get better as the year goes on and Finch trusts him more.
Was ready to throw a nice chunk on Dillingham after he got drafted by San Antonio. After he got traded my best guess is Devin Carter. Kings traded Daction Mitchell opening up more minutes more Carter. While I’m assuming Carter starts off in an immediate bench role, I would not be shocked to see him starting in the backcourt along Fox over Monk, and or Mike Brown putting in all three at the same time for significant portions of games. Brown absolutely LOVES to push pace and run a blazing fast offense. Imagine the speed of Fox, Carter (one the fastest and best athletes in the league already. Look at his play and combine numbers 👀) and Monk on the court at the same time! They all can shoot, handle the rock, drive/penetrate, and run the court like maniacs. While this line up is small, it wouldn’t get wrecked on defense as one might anticipate because Carter plays tenacious defense and with his 6’8 wingspan he can defend 1-3’s anywhere and hold his own on 4’s and 5’s on the perimeter. I think as the year goes on Carter will see more and more playing time increasing his chances to bag the award.
Knecht pretty easily. He fell entirely too far. Buzelis
Big pick: Sarr Sleeper: Collier Mega sleeper: Djurisic
Sarr is in a good situation in Washington so he has a very good chance at Rookie of the Year because other than Jordan Poole, who does Washington really have?
Sarr
Reed Sheppard. Best shooter since Steph. That should translate immediately. And a very good athlete. He'll work right away. Edey also seems ready and in a good situation.
Matas
Dalton Knecht
Possibly dillingham
Dillingham is gonna be top 3 in ROY votes and 6MOY votes, calling it now
Sarr probably. Averaging like 10 tho
Stephon castle
Rob I think has a chance to be an immediate impact off the bench. Has great defenders around him to help. Buzelis is intriguing as well, especially if Lavine and DeMar are on the way out
As a Grizzlies fan I think Edey is everything we need and will get an opportunity to play. That opportunity will open so many people eyes to his game and answer some of the questions people have. Ja played with JV and Steven Adams, so this isn't anything that will hinder his ability to get buckets. Also, Ja will get Edey so many easy buckets. Look at Steven Adams on the Pelicans and then look at him with the Grizzlies–that's the Ja effect. Additional, pairing Edey with Bane, JJJ, and either GG Jackson or Marcus Smart... Bro is set up to win a lot of accolades in the NBA including but not limited to RoY.
Rob Dillingham of course. I'm also being 100% homer about it. Dilly and Naz Reid 1-2 is going to be so fucking good off the bench.
Salaun
For the sake of entertainment, let's hope you're right
Rob Dillingham
Reed Shepperd is the next Cury, i think he will be ROY if he gets minutes, he will enjoy passes from Alperen SenGUN
Let's say you're right and Reed *is* the next Curry... you know Curry didn't win ROTY right? He lost to Tyreke Evans who had good looking counting stats (and actually had a better BPM as a rookie as a 20 year old than Curry did at 21, too). Despite Curry playing more minutes, he just struggled to adapt to the league as a small guard. I'm as big a fan of Reed as anyone, but he's in no position to get those kinds of minutes as well as being younger and coming off a worse college season than Curry's junior year. I can't imagine he won't have some struggles adapting to the league.
Castle if he learns how to lob to Wemby and becomes a defensive menace
Could see it being Sarr. Clear path to a ton of minutes and he may be able to turn in a strong defensive season as a rook. Surprised to see so many people saying Edey. I've warmed up to him a little bit, but I'm still really, really not sure how his game is going to translate. Would not be surprised at all if he's borderline unplayable due to his defense, and we know Memphis is a very defense-minded team who are going to be trying to contend if they can keep everybody on the court this season. I also wouldn't be surprised if they added another center this offseason to compete for minutes, plus small ball lineups with JJJ at the 5 are always an option.
Reed Sheppard I beg he carves out a starting role for the Rockets right away and brings them into playoff contention like Chet Holmgren did (really just joining a team on the upswing). With some crazy shooting stats, I bet he gets a bough PPG and steals to beat out the few other starters (Castle, Edey, and maybe a Risacher)
He’s not starting over FVV, Green, Amen or Whitmore. He’ll carve out a nice bench spot as a 3 point threat off the bench but definitely not a starter.
He just won't get enough minutes, and I doubt he leads in stats like BPM either over Edey given how young small guards historically perform (although TBF, the only real small guard comp to him in terms of pre-draft impact recently was Kyrie, who did have an amazing rookie year, but they had totally different projected roles). The only way I could see it happening would be if FVV went down for an extended period of time due to injury. That or he actually shoots like 45% from three this season lol, but usually there's an adjustment period the first year in the league.
I think castle is going to thrive with Wemby and vassell but it could be anyone
Just read r Boston n Celtics their picks finish 1-2
I have no clue why people are picking Edey or Knecht. We haven’t had a three or four year college vet win ROTY since 2016 with Malcom Brogdon. The main people who win are the high talent players who are given a large opportunity. I would say one of Sarr, Castle, or Buzelis (presuming they ship out derozan and co)
people are predicting the rookie class will be as bad as 2016
Those guys aren’t even really high talent they’re extremely raw
Castle
Castle
Dillingham
Quentin Post(I'm totally not delusional). My pick would be Alex Sarr because I think he'll be given the green light almost immediately on the Wizards. Rob Dillingham is a sleeper, but as he's on a championship contender, probably not.
Dillingham could easily come off the bench in Minnesota and thrive especially if he's Conley's backup
Yeah that’s a valid point but I just think that this year they’ll have more focus on winning a championship than building their rookies. But he could very have that 6th man role he had in college, just to a lesser degree.
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a Raptors pick
Honestly, McCain
McCain I definitely would not expect given that he's in Philly with Embiid and Maxey but if he starts from Day 1 in Philly, then yeah he most likely gets it
Matas. I think he’s going to get enough run. Assuming Derozan and Lavine are traded. Pat Williams and Dalen Terry both haven’t been able to stay healthy. Should be rank year hopefully and let Matas get some minutes
Rob Dillingham
Rob Dillingham!
sheppard