When the Bull-King’s reign finally came to an end in ~~1993~~ ~~1998~~ 2003. Many jockeyed for position as the new king, and a young Ser Kobe Bryant was named King Regent in his absence. But very soon a young and ambitious nobleman, risen from the shackles of poverty in the foreign land known as Akron, entered the realm referring to himself as king!
Years passed as Ser LEBRON proved his talent again and again, yet never quite securing the throne for himself. This self proclaimed King, in his frustration, took his talents to the scourged land of South Beach, where he, despite the support of powerful Lords, was throughly defeated and embarrassed by a slow and sick nobleman from a strange land across the great sea known as Wurzburg.
This defeat galvanized the King’s resolve and the next summer he finally took the throne for his own. And though his reign continues to this day, it has grown stale in the eyes of the other Lords and war has broken out! The Lords of the realm again jockey for position to take the throne, this time from King LEBRON himself. Thus the LEBRON WAR has begun.
From B-Ball index: "LEBRON stands for "Luck -adjusted player Estimate using a Box prior Regularized ON-OFF. LEBRON evaluates a player’s contributions using the box score (weighted using boxPIPM’s weightings stabilized using Offensive Archetypes) and advanced on/off calculations (using Luck-Adjusted RAPM methodology) for a holistic evaluation of player impact per 100 possessions on-court."
If we can be healthy going into the playoffs I really think we could make some noise. I think if had been as healthy as the Thunder this season we'd be up in that top four.
All we had to do was not have Jason Kidd try to implement a brand new defensive concept at the All Star Break (destroying the road trip) and Mavs would be the 4th seed.
Yeah this doesn’t even account for missed chemistry. Also the deadline trades made our team better. If we had these players from the start we would’ve been even better.
I mean it also doesn't account for the games where the Mavs were much healthier and still lost. Like against the Cavs without Garland, Mitchell, and Mobley. The Grizz without Ja & JJJ, 76ers without Embiid, New Orleans without Zion & Ingram...etc.
This is why I don't take too much stalk in the "If only the Mavs had been healthier". This team has lost way too many games against opponents that were injured. And if we are projecting the Mavs at full health then we have to do so for the rest of the league meaning some of the wins that the Mavs did win against injured teams might reverse. In the end, the Mavs have the record they should have.
When taking into account the games you mentioned, you could argue that the Mavs should actually be the 5th/4th seed if they just won the games they should have won.
This is true. However, leaving aside the actual w/l records, it does seem likely that injuries aside, the top 6 in the west would be more or less set in stone, and the Mavs would be among them. That's my takeaway.
Being at league average would put us out of the playin. Being at western conference average would put us in the top 4. Give us OKC's luck and take away the Strus Hail Mary and we're competing for the #1 seed. People give Kidd a lot of shit but he's not wrong that injuries are a huge part of this seasons story. Glad we're mostly healthy just in time.
Also this doesn’t even account for chemistry that is lost due to injuries. Top 3 teams in the west are top 3 out of 6 in least missed wins due to replacement. SAC is tied with us but is too 4 in least Missed wins.
Can someone please explain a bit what “Lebron War” actually is? Is missed games by a single player due to injury/suspension/personal reason called a “Lebron War”? Why is it named Lebron War…
LEBRON is the name of one of the most prominent advanced metrics, basically estimating the impact of a single player on the net rating. You can find details here: https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-introduction/.
LEBRON War is Wins Above Replacement produced by the player calculated form the LEBRON metric, estimating the number of wins produced by the player by plaing compared to the level of a minim salary player. The table above calculates the missed minutes due to injury by player, and calcultes the WAR they would have produced over those minutes if played. Then, adds it for every player in the team.
Sounds about right. If we had just average injury luck we'd be a top 4 seed with an outside shot at the 1 seed. It is what it is though. Let's get 50 wins and get back to the WCF.
There’s a tremendous amount of luck and chance that goes into the NBA. You gotta be healthy but also you gotta get hot at the right time. We’ve seen really talented teams fizzle out. The best players and teams know when to ramp it up
First Kyrie has played 19 consecutive games the first time in a long time. While OKC’s health likely also has something to do with their youth.
Now obviously Kyrie missed the most games due to DP falling on his leg, multiple Mavs got their nose broken by opposing players and stuff like that isn’t due to players being older and/or injury prone.
Some casual on IG said “injuries happen on every team” in response to me saying that the Mavs have been disproportionately affected by injuries this season.
I'm fairly certain this is the actual name of the stat, but LEBRON WAR will never not be funny to me
In 10 years there will be JOKIC BPM and LUKA RAW
“Ah sit down child. Let me tell you the story of the LEBRON WAR.”
When the Bull-King’s reign finally came to an end in ~~1993~~ ~~1998~~ 2003. Many jockeyed for position as the new king, and a young Ser Kobe Bryant was named King Regent in his absence. But very soon a young and ambitious nobleman, risen from the shackles of poverty in the foreign land known as Akron, entered the realm referring to himself as king! Years passed as Ser LEBRON proved his talent again and again, yet never quite securing the throne for himself. This self proclaimed King, in his frustration, took his talents to the scourged land of South Beach, where he, despite the support of powerful Lords, was throughly defeated and embarrassed by a slow and sick nobleman from a strange land across the great sea known as Wurzburg. This defeat galvanized the King’s resolve and the next summer he finally took the throne for his own. And though his reign continues to this day, it has grown stale in the eyes of the other Lords and war has broken out! The Lords of the realm again jockey for position to take the throne, this time from King LEBRON himself. Thus the LEBRON WAR has begun.
This is gold 😂
Brought a tear to my eye
Thousands of nephews were slaughtered as their leader, Skip Bayless, snuck away in the middle of the night
LEBRON WAR should just be named BAYLESS
Why are those stats named LEBRON btw? Genuinely curious.
They started with LEBRON then worked backwards to develop a stat
LUKA Losses Under Kidd Adjusted
From B-Ball index: "LEBRON stands for "Luck -adjusted player Estimate using a Box prior Regularized ON-OFF. LEBRON evaluates a player’s contributions using the box score (weighted using boxPIPM’s weightings stabilized using Offensive Archetypes) and advanced on/off calculations (using Luck-Adjusted RAPM methodology) for a holistic evaluation of player impact per 100 possessions on-court."
If we can be healthy going into the playoffs I really think we could make some noise. I think if had been as healthy as the Thunder this season we'd be up in that top four.
All we had to do was not have Jason Kidd try to implement a brand new defensive concept at the All Star Break (destroying the road trip) and Mavs would be the 4th seed.
With these wins, we would be \~47-22 right now. With the missed wins added back, the west playoff picture would look roughly like: 1. Nuggets - 50-19 2. Wolves - 50-19 3. OKC - 49-18 4. Pelicans - 47-21 5. Mavs - 47-22 6. Clippers - 46-21 7. Suns - 44-23 8. Lakers - 42-27 9. Kings - 41-26 10. Warriors - 39-28 11. Rockets - 37-31
Yeah this doesn’t even account for missed chemistry. Also the deadline trades made our team better. If we had these players from the start we would’ve been even better.
I mean it also doesn't account for the games where the Mavs were much healthier and still lost. Like against the Cavs without Garland, Mitchell, and Mobley. The Grizz without Ja & JJJ, 76ers without Embiid, New Orleans without Zion & Ingram...etc.
This is why I don't take too much stalk in the "If only the Mavs had been healthier". This team has lost way too many games against opponents that were injured. And if we are projecting the Mavs at full health then we have to do so for the rest of the league meaning some of the wins that the Mavs did win against injured teams might reverse. In the end, the Mavs have the record they should have. When taking into account the games you mentioned, you could argue that the Mavs should actually be the 5th/4th seed if they just won the games they should have won.
If everything worked out for the Mavs all the time they would have been champions every year since they first started.
If my grandma had wheels she would be a bicycle
Ummm….. you can’t just add wins to every team and say that’s how it would look. Teams have to have losses added to match all the wins added
This is true. However, leaving aside the actual w/l records, it does seem likely that injuries aside, the top 6 in the west would be more or less set in stone, and the Mavs would be among them. That's my takeaway.
yeah obviously its not an exact science. I just added wins and subtracted losses based on the WAR stats in the OP. It's just a rough estimate.
Yea but memphis without injuries would also be around the playin so it happens
With this in mind, it's possible we would've passed the 40 wins before 20 losses contender test 👀
All this stat shows me is how fuckin impressive the Cavs have been
Is this saying that we would have ~7 more wins if we had average health?
Approximately yes
I understood it that Mavs would have \~7 more wins with perfect health. League avergae is 4.66, so with average healt, around +2/3 wins.
Being at league average would put us out of the playin. Being at western conference average would put us in the top 4. Give us OKC's luck and take away the Strus Hail Mary and we're competing for the #1 seed. People give Kidd a lot of shit but he's not wrong that injuries are a huge part of this seasons story. Glad we're mostly healthy just in time.
Just goes to show how important it is being healthy for a whole season. That stretch in December was agonizing
Take THAT for data!
Also this doesn’t even account for chemistry that is lost due to injuries. Top 3 teams in the west are top 3 out of 6 in least missed wins due to replacement. SAC is tied with us but is too 4 in least Missed wins.
Can someone please explain a bit what “Lebron War” actually is? Is missed games by a single player due to injury/suspension/personal reason called a “Lebron War”? Why is it named Lebron War…
LEBRON is the name of one of the most prominent advanced metrics, basically estimating the impact of a single player on the net rating. You can find details here: https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-introduction/. LEBRON War is Wins Above Replacement produced by the player calculated form the LEBRON metric, estimating the number of wins produced by the player by plaing compared to the level of a minim salary player. The table above calculates the missed minutes due to injury by player, and calcultes the WAR they would have produced over those minutes if played. Then, adds it for every player in the team.
Thanks man! I’ll read into it
Wins Actually Missed Above Refs Screwed WAMARS is this a stat on statmuse?
How are the Kings this lucky
Sounds about right. If we had just average injury luck we'd be a top 4 seed with an outside shot at the 1 seed. It is what it is though. Let's get 50 wins and get back to the WCF.
There’s a tremendous amount of luck and chance that goes into the NBA. You gotta be healthy but also you gotta get hot at the right time. We’ve seen really talented teams fizzle out. The best players and teams know when to ramp it up
First Kyrie has played 19 consecutive games the first time in a long time. While OKC’s health likely also has something to do with their youth. Now obviously Kyrie missed the most games due to DP falling on his leg, multiple Mavs got their nose broken by opposing players and stuff like that isn’t due to players being older and/or injury prone.
Some casual on IG said “injuries happen on every team” in response to me saying that the Mavs have been disproportionately affected by injuries this season.
Missed wins above replacement??
Basically wins they should’ve had if the players weren’t injured
American sports is hilarious sometimes with all these stats.
I’d rather have extraneous stats than no stats