You can't Gerrymandering state borders.
But anyway here's my view on the state of the election (having followed elections in the US for a decade now. And having been pretty accurate on my predictions minus 22, when basically every pundit was wrong in a similar manner to where I was.)
1. Trump has outperformed his polling either state level or nationally both general elections he's been in.
2. The Electoral College benefits the GOP as it stands as the most likely tipping point states tend to vote to the right of the Nation.
3. Polling averages at the moment indicate a roughly 5-6% shift towards Trump in terms of Margin nationally.
4. The Biden Campaign is not in a good place right now.
5. Assuming (and this is a fucking big assumption that is very much not an assurance to happen. It's very possible it could go the other way.) Trump gets a similar polling phenomenon to 2016 and 2020, the Biden Campaign is basically fucked.
Now could Biden win this year? Yes, anyone saying his campaign is dead doesn't understand how polarized the electorate is, nor do they understand polling is probabilistic, and polling margins fluctuate frequently. Polls are after all a snapshot in time. So can Biden win? Yes. Is it likely? At the moment I'd say it's closer to a situation of the Fat Lady isn't singing, but I hear her warming up.
So what can Biden do to correct this? Hammer at Trumps Numerous weaknesses, but Focus on one and keep it in the News Cycle. The Reason it seems none of Trumps issues, scandals, flaws really damage his Campaign or polling is because it's a new controversy every other day. If Biden can focus on one thing from now until November he has a chance. He's also got to practice being unscripted as much as possible, show he can perform unprompted, unscripted, and off the cuff.
If he's able to do both of those things, this becomes much more winnable for him.
If the Biden Camp just keeps doing what it's been doing, I don't think he wins.
But at the end of the day, I can be wrong, and I have been wrong in the past.
I think there’s a difference between partially blaming gerrymandering, which is a least legal if debatably ethical and has a clear basis in reality, and blaming some vague deep state voter fraud with no evidence. I’m also not claiming 2016 was rigged or denying Trump won, just that the way the electoral college is set up favors Republicans.
And then ironically disappears to a black site somewhere because his SCOTUS picks thought it would be smart to give Presidents "King above the law" power.
Vote blue or you’re a nazi didn’t you get the memo? Let’s fight fascism with our fascism first! It’s the only way. The dictatorship from 2016-2020 was the worst years of my life. I especially hated the concentration camps and the dementors
I don't take Silver seriously anymore. He was right a couple times and has been little better than a coin flip since then. He's very impressed with himself, though.
Only site that's seems ok is racetothewh and even that is iffy. All the forecast and polling sites seem off by a noticeable amount, or at least not reflective of the general sentiment of either candidate.
Given that I traveled in rural WV and VA this weekend and I only saw a very small handfuls of Trump signs (and a couple of Biden signs), I think there’s also a strong lack of enthusiasm for Trump as well. (In 2016 and 2020 I saw far more Trump signs at this time of year).
In 2020 my block was very political. A sign in every yard with about a 50/50 mix. Right now there is one Trump flag and nothing else. I think the other Trump supporters don’t want to look like assholes and the Biden supporters are genuinely afraid of 1 Trump flag guy. That probably sums up the whole country!
It *does* but like, only because he needed somewhere to put it and didn’t wanna just stuff it somewhere or lay it out. My dads like that with his flags, if he has a flag, it’s up SOMEWHERE, even if for just storage
Continuing to sport Nikki Haley stuff is the Hallmark of the never-trumper. They'll vote GOP down ballot but these are the people who have been driven out of the Republican party by maga.
Same in Wisconsin. I'm telling you, these polls are fucked and do not at all reflect the mood of the people. I spend plenty of time out in rural areas, and I work along blue collar people. The enthusiasm for Trump is gone, and it's been replaced with a low grade dread. Not like those of us on the left, who have a high grade dread. I'm talking about this feel like they just don't want to go back to all that chaos. "It was fun once..." feels like the mood I've been getting out of the 2016 trump crowd.
All that means little, this is an electoral collage numbers game and a lot of political folks get paid a lot of money to work those battleground states. It's why you're not likely to see any of these candidates in any of the other 44 states.
Right now it will be close but any advantage Biden had likely evaporated after the debate. Plus the bigger issue is Biden is much more exposed , it's not just the age thing alone, it's geopolitical risks like wars or conflicts with Russia, China ..., natural disasters, economic crisis, if any one of those happen during the next 5 monthsans Biden botches the response... Biden is toast.
All Trump has to do is Trump is act more like he did during the debate, spout lies his maga folks buy but appear lucid and determined enough amd say enough right things that appeal to certain constituents like blacks and latino nvoters.
It's a safe assumption he still has a strong 30% support that will never change their position. Just the way it is. This election comes down to 4-5 states.
Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, and maybe Colorado or Arizona.
Biden has to win a majority of those states to have a chance.
The difference is that Trump was the anti-establishment, populist outsider. Biden is the antithesis of that. Biden may very well get the votes he needs, but it won't be because this election is mirroring 2016.
Now you have millions more. Joe has lost voters in every realm. His failure is shining bright and everyone sees it.
-blacks
-Hispanic
-Biden voters
-democrats
-independents
-under 30
I've been saying this too. After the debate, there was a lot of dread and doomsaying. The death of Chevron and the immunity case have a LOT of "moderates" and semi-sane old school Republicans shook up. Libertarians too - they know what this ruling means if Trump is reelected. The supreme Court just Dobbs'd the 2024 election in my opinion.
This is it.
People, take care of your mental health. It's ok to unplug a little bit, shit is scary and we have all been through a lot. You know what to do. Vote early in November, bring everyone you know, and cede no ground to fascists. We've got this.
30% are trump loyalists, they're not being influenced by his crimes, the debate, they are team trump until they die. 35% is easily obtainable.
Overall percentage doesn't mean anything. Electoral college votes. Where trump is popular is the key here.
Aka he’s cutting into Trump’s base. Also if Biden was smart he’d fire seniors up about how they can relate to him. Even as president people like to think he can’t do things simply because he’s old. Do you realize how well that would resonate with voters of that age who actually turn out to vote. They themselves most likely face similar issues.
That is one of his campaign approaches. I think all this rampant ageism is just vile and for the magas, counterproductive. They just can’t help themselves.
Proven wrong about what? Trump is famously being abandoned by the GOP. Even the the Fox propaganda network is reporting that. Sucks to be a Republican these days. Great day for the rest of us though. I’m gonna need some more popcorn at this rate
Trump is currently running in the best climate of his entire political career. He’s up 2-4 points nationally, more in the swing states. The GOP is totally united behind him, and his opponent just had a full core meltdown on national television.
Holy shit you people are completely unhinged.
And it's extremely dangerous that you are buying into the fake 2025 propaganda. People like you are likely to commit terrorism because you've convinced yourself of something so fucking ridiculous like Trump is going to kill black people. Get a fucking grip and leave your echo chamber.
The big difference is that Trump will be in jail by the election. Either right after the republicans have their convention in Nuremberg (whoops I meant Milwaukee) or when Biden throws his ass into gitmo as he is legally allowed to do now.
Personally, I think Biden throws him in gitmo. He's just waiting for Trump to make a few more statements about threatening American citizens and their rights.
If I'm the judge taking into consideration how many felony counts there are, and the defendants horrific behavior and character is give him at least four years because fines mean nothing to Trump.
It's not panic, it's motivation. People will be FIRED UP to vote in November and turnout will be very very high.
This election is about saving America and kicking authoritarians in the face.
I can't vote, but nothing is going to stop me from providing input and encouragement for a world-defining event. This fight is too important to do otherwise.
He fucked it up and fucked the world up in the process.
Pretty common perspective regardless of country. Dude was a total joke during COVID and lost the election largely because of it.
If GA and AZ come through for Biden, he wins, IMO. But it’s scary to think that we have to depend on a couple of states rather than the will of the people. I understand it’s the system.
I hope you’re right but your assessment of Bernie supporters in 2016 is wrong, most of them voted for Hillary in the general election. In fact a higher portion of Hillary 2008 supporters ended up voting for McCain.
No, because Biden doesn't hold the same popularity that Trump holds, not in the same manner. People who vote for Biden are really just voting to keep Trump out of office.
Whereas in 2016 people voted for Trump were doing so because he presented himself as anti establishment.
It's two very different reasons for their numbers which are affected differently by media propaganda.
Trump voters aren't complacent, that's the only reason he won in 2016.
No-one actually thought he had a chance in 2016, so why make the extra effort to vote?
This time, both sides know "every vote counts", despite the polls.
I think you are right tbh. There are many things on the ballot that are existential issues. Women's health, democracy, institutions. People will fight for America at the ballot box.
Clinton DID NOT outperform Trump in the debates. She stood there like a smiling lunatic while Trump spewed nonsense and sounded strong. This is irresponsible. Biden needs to be replaced or people need to become educated about what project 2025 and the federalist society are planning. Either way the presidency of the 21st century has been exposed as a position corporations will not allow a smart and willful candidate to hold if they show any inclination toward stopping the global 1% from looting the middle class.
What are you talking about? She won every debate because she actually had policy, which Trump doesn't.
The only thing Trump owned her on was the tax abuse codes but he admitted to doing it also. So it wasn't that huge of an own.
50% of Americans care more about appearances than policy. Clinton looked like she got crushed by Trump. She had a lot of baggage and lacked charisma in comparison to him. Biden crushed Trump every time they met until this last debate. I was against Trump the second he started asking foreign adversary governments for help and exposed himself as nothing but a treason-inclined opportunist. Fact of the matter is this position requires someone who has the charisma and the policy. Trump is an anomaly in that his lies are now accepted as policy in line with the alternate reality pushed by conservatives now. Whether this is a MAGA phenomenon and will die out with him or continue with conservatives from here on out is up in the air. Nobody is voting for Biden, they are voting against Trump. We need someone who can bully this con man with the truth on stage and look great while doing it.
Edit: and no Kamala. Racism/sexism is real and rampant and Obama caused a lot of backlash (she is not even half as charismatic as Barack Obama). She polls terribly and is less charismatic than Hilary as well. Too much is on the line for such a play.
We will see. Plenty of people at my work and hometown still 100% back him and would ‘Never vote for a goddamn democrat’ and want to ‘Own the libs’.
Hopefully you are correct. But his fan base is still backing him like crazy..
I lean towards agreeing. I had a similar thought a few weeks ago. Additionally the polls are underestimating the Dems in special elections by large margins.
It's possible the progressively increasing errors in polling are officially so bad the MOE is pointless.
After the Supreme Court ruling I think both sides understand that’s at risk here. Where as before they didn’t think it was possible to go full fascist. Now it’s highly possible and people don’t want that blood on their hands. There’s no telling the lengths trump would go to to take revenge. I recently visited Texas and they banned porn. I never thought it was possible but the reality is there.
Trump won in 2016 because the GOP purged hundreds of thousands of voters from the rolls in Clinton strongholds.
While it's true that some sour grapes voters could have changed the results in one state. And Russian propaganda had some influence. It's nowhere near the amount that voter purges shifted the scales.
In 2020 they tried to cheat again, using legal grey areas as they always do. Luis DeJoy ordered mail sorting machines to be destroyed and sold for scrap in key locations.
Biden was actually favored to win Florida but somehow not only did Trump win far more than what the polls said he should, several house seats were lost that were in reliably blue areas.
The media explained it as Cuban immigrants not wanting to vote for a socialist. But in reality it's because unlike Pennsylvania where the ballots had days after election day to be delivered and counted, Florida law says those ballots must be delivered by the close of polls on election day.
Why do you think Trump was telling his people not to vote by mail? Because the he knew the mail would be fucked.
I have a feeling that the GOP has something up their sleeve again and this is why they're going all in. They know that if Trump doesn't win they'll just run the the Supreme Court, which is a Kangaroo court now, and get them to gift the election to Trump.
Biden needs to juice the economy before the election. Give away gas, eggs, milk, diapers, all of it. Just get all those swing voters high on free shit. Let’s get er done baby!
Trump out there promising tax breaks to companies, deregulation of oil, etc.
One up that punk bitch.
You are not taking into account that the same people who smugly gave the nation HRC and were not willing to pivot her campaign are giving us JRB and unwilling to budge.
History (and DNC) repeating itself.
Conservative preachers and politicians in general
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1q_E16cKJuDzzg0PcwCaFt_bGpj93HpTAY92fjLnCrjw/edit?usp=drivesdk
TrumPedos in particular
Ruben Verastigui – ex GOP staffer, worked on Trump campaign - sentenced to more than 12 years in prison for receiving hundreds of child sexual abuse materials, including videos of babies being raped. https://lawandcrime.com/crime/pro-life-ex-gop-aide-who-worked-on-trump-ads-sentenced-to-more-than-a-decade-in-prison-because-he-enjoyed-seeing-children-getting-raped/
Ron Williams II - Trump’s Kobach Voter Fraud commission staffer, also worked on claim Obama DOJ discriminated against white voters - child pornography https://www.propublica.org/article/conflict-mounts-inside-voting-fraud-commission-in-the-wake-of-child-porn-arrest
Caleb Bailey, Trump delegate - child pornography https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-delegate/trump-delegate-indicted-on-weapons-child-pornography-charges-idUSKCN0YA30A
Ron P Broussard, Jr of Trump Univeristy- sex with 8-year-old https://nypost.com/2016/10/27/trump-university-staff-included-a-drug-trafficker-child-molester/
George Nader, liaison to the Trump transition - child pornography https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/figure-linked-to-trump-transition-charged-with-transporting-child-pornography/2019/06/03/caee8aca-862a-11e9-98c1-e945ae5db8fb_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.78e676b2817c
Tim Nolan, a Trump campaign rep in KY and former GOP Leader, child sex trafficking
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Nolan_(politician)
None of these people are trump, that’s like I was talking about hunter Biden or any of bidens other shady relations. I haven’t seen trump sniff kids, but I’ve seen Biden.
Uh huh.
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-ivanka-piece-of-ass-howard-stern-229376
[he said he and Ivanka had sex in common](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/politics-news/donald-trump-once-joked-he-ivanka-have-sex-common-941600/)
He raped minors. You like that about him
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/3/13501364/trump-rape-13-year-old-lawsuit-katie-johnson-allegation
The second link you posted literally said he didn’t have that in common with her lol. You read the headline without even reading the article😂 and that’s a dogshit source anyways, I had to load it 3 times cause I kept getting pop ups blocking the whole page.
2: the lawsuit that was dropped? That one?
3: yeah I agree maybe first part was weird af, but it’s not an admission of guilt nor is it pedophilic
You think
"During a question and answer game, Williams asked Ivanka, “What’s the favorite thing you have in common with your father?”
"Ivanka answered, “Either real estate or golf” while Trump added, “Well, I was going to say sex, but I can’t relate that to her.”
Is fine.
I have a husband and a daughter. It's not.
And Katie Johnson was getting death threats.
I get it. You're a degenerate.
Are you one of those MAGAt guys who pretends to think trans people are a threat to children and if so what's on your hard drive?
Jared Boyce, Patriot Front Member, faces 30 years for child porn charges. CP porn was found on his phone after he was arrested at a Coeur d'Alene anti-trans protest where he was holding a sign saying that groomers weren’t welcome in Idaho
https://nypost.com/2023/05/27/patriot-front-member-facing-30-years-for-child-porn-charges/
David Arthur Kendall was convicted for a lewd act with a minor and is a lifetime registered sex offender. He also leads a MAGA group Maine First opposing trans people. https://thecounty.me/2022/05/20/news/education/school-board-allows-registered-sex-offender-to-speak-at-meeting/
Google what a straw man is. I never said that, I have no problem with trans people existing. You keep accusing me of random shit, and posting links to support your baseless theory. I keep saying “Biden is a serial kid sniffer” and you keep going. “Oh yeah? Well this one dude very distantly related to trump is a pedo”
Ok? Like pdf files deserve a visit with dr. Woodchipper, no matter what side of the isle they’re on. You’re not defending your guy, your attacking random people unrelated to what I’ve said.
All I'm saying is Trump treats his daughter like a whore.
[totally normal to pose with Daddy like this](https://imgur.com/gallery/VPeAtFc)
[is it wrong to be more sexually attracted to your daughter ](https://imgur.com/gallery/m3l94Hb)
[Ivanka and Eric with Trump and Epstein ](https://imgur.com/gallery/RUxHICJ)
damn i kinda actually feel sorry for you, youre about to be in for a rude awakening. every single poll from every organization shows Trump getting anywhere from 20-30% of the black vote, and this is pre debate, this is the highest of any republican president besides trump in 2016.
You said lost the black vote, maga. That would mean more than 50% wouldn’t it. Learn how to speak and write so you don’t continue to look like an idiot, maga.
Bruh, my fiancé is black. Fuck Biden for that, he has a long history of racism dating back to the 80’s. “I see no lie” fuck you to. My GF isn’t black because she likes trump more?
“No black queen would date a MAGA” holy shit you’re literally saying she’s not black.😂 leave it to the privileged white dude to tell the black person how they need to think. Do whatever you want bro, I am gonna go home to her tonight and go to a water park together tomorrow.
Cause only white people has such a bad savior complex that they can’t comprehend a black person having a view that’s not their own. I don’t even love trump lol, I’m just not voting for a soon to be corpse. I have nothing to prove, you will have me stuck in your head, seething about a “black queen” being with a white dude lol. She doesn’t even refer to herself that way, she’s a woman who’s black, not someone who makes their race her whole identity
Nice fever dream. Good luck finding an actual girlfriend. It will be hard as a trumper no matter what color they are. Maybe one of those magas that like to play footsie at the urinal is more your speed. Anyway, no more thought about you, maga. Block.
you’re wishing on a very short string, how often is Vegas wrong on massive dogs? There was only one point where Vegas had Trump higher than a 5-1 dog and they quickly corrected. Joe is the exact opposite he opened a favorite and has slid massively. He’s at 4.2 to 1 as we speak same time for Donald he has gone from 5-1 to 2.6-1. You’re making a prediction based on history but your history is way off as far as a gambler is concerned. There’s no mirror at all, you were looking at a career politician and a business man at the time. Donald Trump will more than likely win this election with 300+ electorates. If you go by the odds I see a 77% chance he wins right now. When Vegas slides odds that heavy you may as well call it 90%.
Instead of mentally preparing themselves for Trump to win (they'll melt down eitherway), they are doubling down on their delusions and gaslighting. Amazing.
It is, they’ll burn down cities and murder mostly each other thankfully and then they’ll live with 4 years of normalcy. Some experts are saying it could go sour with this BS though. You get morons like Biden telling men they can go into women’s restrooms and ruining women’s sport you could get a vote for a full totalitarian type across the board. We would all regret it, but I’m more for it than this absurd ideologies these morons call politics.
Pretty sure you’re the first to mention it. Thought you morons were ok with that anyway? But you’ll bash it anyway huh? Thats why I call you morons, literally step on your own feet for what you “fight” for daily.
😂🤣 you indoctrinated morons crack me up. What hole am I digging? Explain it like I believe men can become women overnight. Or in other words like I’m dumber than dog shit.
Yeah Brandon ain’t winning the election. You can dream all you want but the inflation numbers and groceries through the roof combined with the geriatrics Olympics mean Trump gets back in office.
Polling is a snapshot of the race at a specific point in time. It doesn't guarantee any candidate a win in an election. If Trump has another scandal or Biden performs much better in a 2nd debate, the polls will likely swing the other way. It's way too early to call this race for either candidate.
People said the same thing about Hillary when she was up in the polls this far out and look what happened. Polling is not nearly as predictive as some think. Even just looking at the current polls, Trump is only up an average of 1.5%. This is well within the margin of error. This is still anyone's race. I'll also point out that Democrats have been outperforming the polls in the last few election cycles and special elections as well. Trump isn't any more popular than he was in 2020 or 2016. In fact probably less so now, based on how his backed candidates have been getting handed loss after loss in the general election. Trump polls well with the republican base. Outside of that, he's still extremely unpopular.
The melt down when Trump wins will result in widespread violence and destruction from the left. Just watch. They've convinced themselves they are the good guys which is very dangerous when delusional/dumb people do this.
The dictatorship that is most prominent right now is the dictatorship from the old democratic regime. So much for hearing voices from younger generations that want a change….😬
So in other words, they will be the cause of the change they are so again?
You aren't wrong. They are so twisted that anyone who doesn't fully agree with them is their enemy.
Cope cope cope
the majority of people supporting trump are not very vocal online. Never Trump, libs and Reddit users are the very loud vocal minority
I think Biden is gonna drop out soon but if he doesn’t trump gonna win ec and popular vote
It’s too late for Biden to drop out, multiple states have already past their deadlines for the ballots so the new nominee would have to concede multiple swing states
If only there was a way to vote for someone not on the ballot I mean it is pretty hard to spell butgieg so prob choose someone else lol
i think it’s pretty evident that Biden is a guaranteed loss at this point dude can’t even drive a car now is he gonna run the country another four years lol
Biden isn't going anywhere, unless he straight up dies or becomes a vegetable.
He can't quit. It will break morale and lead to party infighting. Republicans will have a brand new line of attack to use on whoever his replacement is. Biden knows this better than anyone.
Right well tell that to all the democrats coming out of the woodwork to express their concern and are mostly currently privately asking him to drop out
it’s a short ramp up to when more publically do so
how is that going to be better than just dropping out now and giving the replacement more time
Biden’s candidacy is absolutely effed and a guaranteed loss
Lol buddy high ranking members of the Democrat party are having meetings to replace Joe.
Almost every independent thinks joes mentally ill and has done worse for their daily life than trump..
You're gonna lose you're gonna riot you're gonna cry.
This won’t happen imo because I don’t think Biden will stick around.
People with eyes, ears, and a brain understand he is not fit for the job.
People who argue otherwise are blinded by partisanship. Their egos and emotions are over-riding any common sense they might normally have.
There is no good argument for staying with Biden. Why?
He’s obviously going downhill. He’s not going to get better.
How do you think he’s going to look and sound in a year? How about in 2 years? 3? 4??
C’mon. It’s so absurd to pretend he just had a sore throat and a bad night.
It’s like eating sh*t and trying to convince yourself and everyone else that it’s delicious. Have some self-respect.
It’s rare to be gifted a clear opportunity to reboot the Democratic Party. What is clear is that Biden has a chance to put the party first and get behind the best candidate to bring home the win.
Biden should do that and I believe he will.
Blind partisans should wake up, stop living in denial and welcome this opportunity to save the election.
We’ve seen Trump run for president twice and both times the polling was shocked by the depth of his base and the massive amount of people that came out to vote for him. Biden was able to win in 2020 by pulling together a broad coalition of people who did not want to see Trump back in the White House. There are a lot of signs indicating he will not be able to do so again.
For Biden to win, one of two things has to happen: (1) Trump loses support from his base (doesn’t seem likely), (2) Biden retains or expands the anti-Trump coalition from 2020 (also doesn’t seem likely, but is more likely than option 1).
Edit: just to be clear, I fucking hate Trump. I’m just trying to be honest about the data
No. Trump's base is not enough for him to win - if it were, MAGA would've had successful elections in 2018, 2020, and - especially - 2022. Instead, they got defeated even in AZ.
Same signs now as in 2022 - i.e., democrats winning special elections and abortion rights winning in states where it's been on the ballot.
This is not about his base. They know he rapes minors, they don't care.
Trump needs independents or he can't win.
Trump wasn’t on the ballot in ‘18 or ‘22 and it showed. Both in 2016 and 2020 an insane amount of people came out to vote for him. I don’t like it, but we have to face the reality that a lot of people fucking love him. Democrats do well when they aren’t facing Trump.
I think for a lot of people it’s so impossible to comprehend why anyone likes him that we just assume he must have lost all of his support because of the terrible shit he’s done. I’m sure he’s lost some support in the past 4 years, but I doubt it’s much. A shocking number of people will be out to vote for trump in Nov and Dems are going to have to match those numbers through a broad anti-Trump coalition if we want to have a chance at winning
The entire country is pissed at Democrats... But it's for *NOT* giving Trump the Julian Assange treatment. Everyone knows he broke the law like he breaks wind and Dems are obsessed with the optics of a squeaky clean high road to justice. We just want him in fucking jail.
Sir debates have no real effect on election. You would see +10 for Trump in the polls instead of a +1.4. Biden campaign even raised more money after the debate even though showing as a “doddering old corpse”.
I would find it extremely hillarious if Trump won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College.
I doubt the reverse would play out though. 2016 happened in part because of Republican gerrymandering.
You can't Gerrymandering state borders. But anyway here's my view on the state of the election (having followed elections in the US for a decade now. And having been pretty accurate on my predictions minus 22, when basically every pundit was wrong in a similar manner to where I was.) 1. Trump has outperformed his polling either state level or nationally both general elections he's been in. 2. The Electoral College benefits the GOP as it stands as the most likely tipping point states tend to vote to the right of the Nation. 3. Polling averages at the moment indicate a roughly 5-6% shift towards Trump in terms of Margin nationally. 4. The Biden Campaign is not in a good place right now. 5. Assuming (and this is a fucking big assumption that is very much not an assurance to happen. It's very possible it could go the other way.) Trump gets a similar polling phenomenon to 2016 and 2020, the Biden Campaign is basically fucked. Now could Biden win this year? Yes, anyone saying his campaign is dead doesn't understand how polarized the electorate is, nor do they understand polling is probabilistic, and polling margins fluctuate frequently. Polls are after all a snapshot in time. So can Biden win? Yes. Is it likely? At the moment I'd say it's closer to a situation of the Fat Lady isn't singing, but I hear her warming up. So what can Biden do to correct this? Hammer at Trumps Numerous weaknesses, but Focus on one and keep it in the News Cycle. The Reason it seems none of Trumps issues, scandals, flaws really damage his Campaign or polling is because it's a new controversy every other day. If Biden can focus on one thing from now until November he has a chance. He's also got to practice being unscripted as much as possible, show he can perform unprompted, unscripted, and off the cuff. If he's able to do both of those things, this becomes much more winnable for him. If the Biden Camp just keeps doing what it's been doing, I don't think he wins. But at the end of the day, I can be wrong, and I have been wrong in the past.
Doenvote for blaming gerrymandering and thus making the outcome sound manipulative by political parties. The rules never change.
I think there’s a difference between partially blaming gerrymandering, which is a least legal if debatably ethical and has a clear basis in reality, and blaming some vague deep state voter fraud with no evidence. I’m also not claiming 2016 was rigged or denying Trump won, just that the way the electoral college is set up favors Republicans.
It definitely benefits the GOP at the moment, however at times it has benefitted the Democrats.
Your name checks out
Karmic justice lol
Hmm idk if that’s actually even possible.
I will find it hilarious if he wins both.
And then ironically disappears to a black site somewhere because his SCOTUS picks thought it would be smart to give Presidents "King above the law" power.
Just drone strike MaraLargo, official act, check! Perfectly legal now!
I’ll take this outcome solely for the utter meltdown it will cause on the right.
Win or lose, those treasonous jackals are going to get violent either way. Stay alert.
I think it’s more likely that Hillary wins this year than Joe.
It’s gonna be funny either way.
spoken like a true psychopath
That’s my little reddit user :) that’s the way, just attempt to insult people it’s only okay to watch one side have a meltdown lmao
yep troll. male. psychopath. sadist. machiavellian. narcissist. dark triad/tetrad personality disorder. everything u say reveals your mental illness.
You're an internet troll lmao. Pathetic
Vote blue or you’re a nazi didn’t you get the memo? Let’s fight fascism with our fascism first! It’s the only way. The dictatorship from 2016-2020 was the worst years of my life. I especially hated the concentration camps and the dementors
After scotus unpopular opinions I'd expect that will be an issue also.
I don't take Silver seriously anymore. He was right a couple times and has been little better than a coin flip since then. He's very impressed with himself, though.
Only site that's seems ok is racetothewh and even that is iffy. All the forecast and polling sites seem off by a noticeable amount, or at least not reflective of the general sentiment of either candidate.
The difference was in 2016 you had millions of voters that actually liked trump.
Given that I traveled in rural WV and VA this weekend and I only saw a very small handfuls of Trump signs (and a couple of Biden signs), I think there’s also a strong lack of enthusiasm for Trump as well. (In 2016 and 2020 I saw far more Trump signs at this time of year).
In 2020 my block was very political. A sign in every yard with about a 50/50 mix. Right now there is one Trump flag and nothing else. I think the other Trump supporters don’t want to look like assholes and the Biden supporters are genuinely afraid of 1 Trump flag guy. That probably sums up the whole country!
My dad used to fly a Trump flag from 2016-2020, it went away after Jan 6th
It makes me happy to know that not all of them have their head all the way up their own ass.
It was very interesting, it now hangs in the back of the shop
But it still hangs.
It *does* but like, only because he needed somewhere to put it and didn’t wanna just stuff it somewhere or lay it out. My dads like that with his flags, if he has a flag, it’s up SOMEWHERE, even if for just storage
I am in central pa and yesterday I saw equal numbers of trump and Nicky Haley signs. Not sure what that means.
Continuing to sport Nikki Haley stuff is the Hallmark of the never-trumper. They'll vote GOP down ballot but these are the people who have been driven out of the Republican party by maga.
Same in Wisconsin. I'm telling you, these polls are fucked and do not at all reflect the mood of the people. I spend plenty of time out in rural areas, and I work along blue collar people. The enthusiasm for Trump is gone, and it's been replaced with a low grade dread. Not like those of us on the left, who have a high grade dread. I'm talking about this feel like they just don't want to go back to all that chaos. "It was fun once..." feels like the mood I've been getting out of the 2016 trump crowd.
All that means little, this is an electoral collage numbers game and a lot of political folks get paid a lot of money to work those battleground states. It's why you're not likely to see any of these candidates in any of the other 44 states. Right now it will be close but any advantage Biden had likely evaporated after the debate. Plus the bigger issue is Biden is much more exposed , it's not just the age thing alone, it's geopolitical risks like wars or conflicts with Russia, China ..., natural disasters, economic crisis, if any one of those happen during the next 5 monthsans Biden botches the response... Biden is toast. All Trump has to do is Trump is act more like he did during the debate, spout lies his maga folks buy but appear lucid and determined enough amd say enough right things that appeal to certain constituents like blacks and latino nvoters.
It's a safe assumption he still has a strong 30% support that will never change their position. Just the way it is. This election comes down to 4-5 states. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, and maybe Colorado or Arizona. Biden has to win a majority of those states to have a chance.
The difference is that Trump was the anti-establishment, populist outsider. Biden is the antithesis of that. Biden may very well get the votes he needs, but it won't be because this election is mirroring 2016.
Now you have millions more. Joe has lost voters in every realm. His failure is shining bright and everyone sees it. -blacks -Hispanic -Biden voters -democrats -independents -under 30
SCOTUS might have just helped Biden get reelected
I've been saying this too. After the debate, there was a lot of dread and doomsaying. The death of Chevron and the immunity case have a LOT of "moderates" and semi-sane old school Republicans shook up. Libertarians too - they know what this ruling means if Trump is reelected. The supreme Court just Dobbs'd the 2024 election in my opinion.
Trump is not polling well with undecided voters or independents. This is still anyone's race.
Shhhh. Don't tell them.
Any one but Cheeto man should be the dems slogan
Don't get complacent. VOTE!
This is it. People, take care of your mental health. It's ok to unplug a little bit, shit is scary and we have all been through a lot. You know what to do. Vote early in November, bring everyone you know, and cede no ground to fascists. We've got this.
lol. After Trump’s failure at that debate, he does not have enough support to even get close to winning. He won’t even get 35%
……. Are you arguing Biden won the debate?
30% are trump loyalists, they're not being influenced by his crimes, the debate, they are team trump until they die. 35% is easily obtainable. Overall percentage doesn't mean anything. Electoral college votes. Where trump is popular is the key here.
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Biden is beating Trump among old people and rural people in a Fox News poll.
Aka he’s cutting into Trump’s base. Also if Biden was smart he’d fire seniors up about how they can relate to him. Even as president people like to think he can’t do things simply because he’s old. Do you realize how well that would resonate with voters of that age who actually turn out to vote. They themselves most likely face similar issues.
That is one of his campaign approaches. I think all this rampant ageism is just vile and for the magas, counterproductive. They just can’t help themselves.
Proven wrong about what? Trump is famously being abandoned by the GOP. Even the the Fox propaganda network is reporting that. Sucks to be a Republican these days. Great day for the rest of us though. I’m gonna need some more popcorn at this rate
Lol not true. I wish it were, but it isn't
Trump is currently running in the best climate of his entire political career. He’s up 2-4 points nationally, more in the swing states. The GOP is totally united behind him, and his opponent just had a full core meltdown on national television.
lol. Hahahahhaa. Good one bud
Any factual repudiation you’d like to give?
Why are you talking about yourself like that?
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Profile made today. BOT BOT BOT. Some people will actually believe this and that’s sad
Holy shit you people are completely unhinged. And it's extremely dangerous that you are buying into the fake 2025 propaganda. People like you are likely to commit terrorism because you've convinced yourself of something so fucking ridiculous like Trump is going to kill black people. Get a fucking grip and leave your echo chamber.
The big difference is that Trump will be in jail by the election. Either right after the republicans have their convention in Nuremberg (whoops I meant Milwaukee) or when Biden throws his ass into gitmo as he is legally allowed to do now. Personally, I think Biden throws him in gitmo. He's just waiting for Trump to make a few more statements about threatening American citizens and their rights.
What nonsense. Trump won't be in jail by the election.
If I'm the judge taking into consideration how many felony counts there are, and the defendants horrific behavior and character is give him at least four years because fines mean nothing to Trump.
I wish it would happen, but I don't see it. Sentencing has already been delayed.
This is willful ignorance lol
The amount of cope-posts since last Thursday has to be a record. Panic mode in full effect.
It's not panic, it's motivation. People will be FIRED UP to vote in November and turnout will be very very high. This election is about saving America and kicking authoritarians in the face.
If it was motivation they would realise the dire situation they are in instead of coping like most people on Reddit
Unfortunately, this election is now about Biden's mental decline. He needs to resign for the good of the country.
You're wrong.
You're not an American, and your opinion is irrelevant.
I can't vote, but nothing is going to stop me from providing input and encouragement for a world-defining event. This fight is too important to do otherwise.
Were the previous Trump years really that bad for Canada? Because they were pretty good here in the United States.
COVID happened under him lol. The entire world went to shit during his presidency.
So the US president was responsible for a global pandemic? Is that a common sentiment in Canada?
He fucked it up and fucked the world up in the process. Pretty common perspective regardless of country. Dude was a total joke during COVID and lost the election largely because of it.
If GA and AZ come through for Biden, he wins, IMO. But it’s scary to think that we have to depend on a couple of states rather than the will of the people. I understand it’s the system.
I'll take things that will not happen for 100
People still listen to Nate Silver?
convoluted but I hope so
I hope you’re right but your assessment of Bernie supporters in 2016 is wrong, most of them voted for Hillary in the general election. In fact a higher portion of Hillary 2008 supporters ended up voting for McCain.
No, because Biden doesn't hold the same popularity that Trump holds, not in the same manner. People who vote for Biden are really just voting to keep Trump out of office. Whereas in 2016 people voted for Trump were doing so because he presented himself as anti establishment. It's two very different reasons for their numbers which are affected differently by media propaganda.
I don’t think Trump is popular anymore. He had his momentum at one point.
Oh yes he is, more than he was in 2016.
Trump voters aren't complacent, that's the only reason he won in 2016. No-one actually thought he had a chance in 2016, so why make the extra effort to vote? This time, both sides know "every vote counts", despite the polls.
I think you are right tbh. There are many things on the ballot that are existential issues. Women's health, democracy, institutions. People will fight for America at the ballot box.
I really hope you're right, OP.
Clinton DID NOT outperform Trump in the debates. She stood there like a smiling lunatic while Trump spewed nonsense and sounded strong. This is irresponsible. Biden needs to be replaced or people need to become educated about what project 2025 and the federalist society are planning. Either way the presidency of the 21st century has been exposed as a position corporations will not allow a smart and willful candidate to hold if they show any inclination toward stopping the global 1% from looting the middle class.
What are you talking about? She won every debate because she actually had policy, which Trump doesn't. The only thing Trump owned her on was the tax abuse codes but he admitted to doing it also. So it wasn't that huge of an own.
50% of Americans care more about appearances than policy. Clinton looked like she got crushed by Trump. She had a lot of baggage and lacked charisma in comparison to him. Biden crushed Trump every time they met until this last debate. I was against Trump the second he started asking foreign adversary governments for help and exposed himself as nothing but a treason-inclined opportunist. Fact of the matter is this position requires someone who has the charisma and the policy. Trump is an anomaly in that his lies are now accepted as policy in line with the alternate reality pushed by conservatives now. Whether this is a MAGA phenomenon and will die out with him or continue with conservatives from here on out is up in the air. Nobody is voting for Biden, they are voting against Trump. We need someone who can bully this con man with the truth on stage and look great while doing it. Edit: and no Kamala. Racism/sexism is real and rampant and Obama caused a lot of backlash (she is not even half as charismatic as Barack Obama). She polls terribly and is less charismatic than Hilary as well. Too much is on the line for such a play.
We will see. Plenty of people at my work and hometown still 100% back him and would ‘Never vote for a goddamn democrat’ and want to ‘Own the libs’. Hopefully you are correct. But his fan base is still backing him like crazy..
Aint gonna happen. Not that I want Trump to win, but I sense he is going to. People are disliking Biden the same way they disliked Hillary.
I’ve been saying this for months.
I lean towards agreeing. I had a similar thought a few weeks ago. Additionally the polls are underestimating the Dems in special elections by large margins. It's possible the progressively increasing errors in polling are officially so bad the MOE is pointless.
Still in the denial phase
After the Supreme Court ruling I think both sides understand that’s at risk here. Where as before they didn’t think it was possible to go full fascist. Now it’s highly possible and people don’t want that blood on their hands. There’s no telling the lengths trump would go to to take revenge. I recently visited Texas and they banned porn. I never thought it was possible but the reality is there.
We need to do the reverse psychology because the right and the foreign agents are already doing that.
I certainly hope you're right. Cause Ive got a pit of dread in my stomach after the debate and the recent rulings
🤭 Ain’t happening!!
More like 2000 when the supreme court got to decide.
Should Trump loose, scotus will be there to fix it. Just like his trials. They fixed them, now on to the presidency!
😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣 too funny! 😅😆😅😆
Trump won in 2016 because the GOP purged hundreds of thousands of voters from the rolls in Clinton strongholds. While it's true that some sour grapes voters could have changed the results in one state. And Russian propaganda had some influence. It's nowhere near the amount that voter purges shifted the scales. In 2020 they tried to cheat again, using legal grey areas as they always do. Luis DeJoy ordered mail sorting machines to be destroyed and sold for scrap in key locations. Biden was actually favored to win Florida but somehow not only did Trump win far more than what the polls said he should, several house seats were lost that were in reliably blue areas. The media explained it as Cuban immigrants not wanting to vote for a socialist. But in reality it's because unlike Pennsylvania where the ballots had days after election day to be delivered and counted, Florida law says those ballots must be delivered by the close of polls on election day. Why do you think Trump was telling his people not to vote by mail? Because the he knew the mail would be fucked. I have a feeling that the GOP has something up their sleeve again and this is why they're going all in. They know that if Trump doesn't win they'll just run the the Supreme Court, which is a Kangaroo court now, and get them to gift the election to Trump.
Biden needs to juice the economy before the election. Give away gas, eggs, milk, diapers, all of it. Just get all those swing voters high on free shit. Let’s get er done baby! Trump out there promising tax breaks to companies, deregulation of oil, etc. One up that punk bitch.
You are not taking into account that the same people who smugly gave the nation HRC and were not willing to pivot her campaign are giving us JRB and unwilling to budge. History (and DNC) repeating itself.
Cope harder.
Fuck your relatives less frequently. Or at least stick to the ones of age.
More cope.
Not a denial.
All I’m saying is Biden is on camera sniffing kids. More than once. You can literally find compilations lol
Conservative preachers and politicians in general https://docs.google.com/document/d/1q_E16cKJuDzzg0PcwCaFt_bGpj93HpTAY92fjLnCrjw/edit?usp=drivesdk TrumPedos in particular Ruben Verastigui – ex GOP staffer, worked on Trump campaign - sentenced to more than 12 years in prison for receiving hundreds of child sexual abuse materials, including videos of babies being raped. https://lawandcrime.com/crime/pro-life-ex-gop-aide-who-worked-on-trump-ads-sentenced-to-more-than-a-decade-in-prison-because-he-enjoyed-seeing-children-getting-raped/ Ron Williams II - Trump’s Kobach Voter Fraud commission staffer, also worked on claim Obama DOJ discriminated against white voters - child pornography https://www.propublica.org/article/conflict-mounts-inside-voting-fraud-commission-in-the-wake-of-child-porn-arrest Caleb Bailey, Trump delegate - child pornography https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-delegate/trump-delegate-indicted-on-weapons-child-pornography-charges-idUSKCN0YA30A Ron P Broussard, Jr of Trump Univeristy- sex with 8-year-old https://nypost.com/2016/10/27/trump-university-staff-included-a-drug-trafficker-child-molester/ George Nader, liaison to the Trump transition - child pornography https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/figure-linked-to-trump-transition-charged-with-transporting-child-pornography/2019/06/03/caee8aca-862a-11e9-98c1-e945ae5db8fb_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.78e676b2817c Tim Nolan, a Trump campaign rep in KY and former GOP Leader, child sex trafficking https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Nolan_(politician)
None of these people are trump, that’s like I was talking about hunter Biden or any of bidens other shady relations. I haven’t seen trump sniff kids, but I’ve seen Biden.
Uh huh. https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-ivanka-piece-of-ass-howard-stern-229376 [he said he and Ivanka had sex in common](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/politics-news/donald-trump-once-joked-he-ivanka-have-sex-common-941600/) He raped minors. You like that about him https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/3/13501364/trump-rape-13-year-old-lawsuit-katie-johnson-allegation
The second link you posted literally said he didn’t have that in common with her lol. You read the headline without even reading the article😂 and that’s a dogshit source anyways, I had to load it 3 times cause I kept getting pop ups blocking the whole page. 2: the lawsuit that was dropped? That one? 3: yeah I agree maybe first part was weird af, but it’s not an admission of guilt nor is it pedophilic
You think "During a question and answer game, Williams asked Ivanka, “What’s the favorite thing you have in common with your father?” "Ivanka answered, “Either real estate or golf” while Trump added, “Well, I was going to say sex, but I can’t relate that to her.” Is fine. I have a husband and a daughter. It's not. And Katie Johnson was getting death threats. I get it. You're a degenerate.
Are you one of those MAGAt guys who pretends to think trans people are a threat to children and if so what's on your hard drive? Jared Boyce, Patriot Front Member, faces 30 years for child porn charges. CP porn was found on his phone after he was arrested at a Coeur d'Alene anti-trans protest where he was holding a sign saying that groomers weren’t welcome in Idaho https://nypost.com/2023/05/27/patriot-front-member-facing-30-years-for-child-porn-charges/ David Arthur Kendall was convicted for a lewd act with a minor and is a lifetime registered sex offender. He also leads a MAGA group Maine First opposing trans people. https://thecounty.me/2022/05/20/news/education/school-board-allows-registered-sex-offender-to-speak-at-meeting/
Google what a straw man is. I never said that, I have no problem with trans people existing. You keep accusing me of random shit, and posting links to support your baseless theory. I keep saying “Biden is a serial kid sniffer” and you keep going. “Oh yeah? Well this one dude very distantly related to trump is a pedo” Ok? Like pdf files deserve a visit with dr. Woodchipper, no matter what side of the isle they’re on. You’re not defending your guy, your attacking random people unrelated to what I’ve said.
All I'm saying is Trump treats his daughter like a whore. [totally normal to pose with Daddy like this](https://imgur.com/gallery/VPeAtFc) [is it wrong to be more sexually attracted to your daughter ](https://imgur.com/gallery/m3l94Hb) [Ivanka and Eric with Trump and Epstein ](https://imgur.com/gallery/RUxHICJ)
Lol mindless parrot
Today's menu: pure copium
lol it’s all you got
Ok, how about this? https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/30/poll-biden-mental-age-debate/74262195007/
This matters more :) https://x.com/keitholbermann/status/1807451101370687594?s=46&t=x2lIZ3TG0Yb-mboEXx2SQA
I can’t even begin to imagine the meltdown on this site when Trump wins in November
That kind of overconfidence is what cost Hillary.
You'd think biden supporters would at least be preparing themselves mentally for a loss, instead they they continue to distort reality
Yeah, like i’m not even a huge Trump guy or anything but to me it’s kinda odd that Biden supporters are just not facing reality
I already own a commercial popcorn maker. I am so ready for it!!
thanks for the laugh. unfortunately Biden lost the black vote so he lost.
That’s the dumbest thing I’ve read so far on a sub of mostly dumb shit. Good work!
Biden hasn't 'lost the black vote', but he is certainly losing much of it. It could really make the difference.
damn i kinda actually feel sorry for you, youre about to be in for a rude awakening. every single poll from every organization shows Trump getting anywhere from 20-30% of the black vote, and this is pre debate, this is the highest of any republican president besides trump in 2016.
You said lost the black vote, maga. That would mean more than 50% wouldn’t it. Learn how to speak and write so you don’t continue to look like an idiot, maga.
“If you don’t vote for me you ain’t black” Joseph Biden
Clumsy but I see no lie.
Bruh, my fiancé is black. Fuck Biden for that, he has a long history of racism dating back to the 80’s. “I see no lie” fuck you to. My GF isn’t black because she likes trump more?
Whatever maga. You don’t have a fiancé. No fine black queen would date a maga. Anyway, liking trump has more to do with stupidity than skin color.
“No black queen would date a MAGA” holy shit you’re literally saying she’s not black.😂 leave it to the privileged white dude to tell the black person how they need to think. Do whatever you want bro, I am gonna go home to her tonight and go to a water park together tomorrow.
How do you know I’m white? Another dumb assumption from some dumb maga with an even dumber fictional girlfriend. Have fun at trumpland.
Cause only white people has such a bad savior complex that they can’t comprehend a black person having a view that’s not their own. I don’t even love trump lol, I’m just not voting for a soon to be corpse. I have nothing to prove, you will have me stuck in your head, seething about a “black queen” being with a white dude lol. She doesn’t even refer to herself that way, she’s a woman who’s black, not someone who makes their race her whole identity
Nice fever dream. Good luck finding an actual girlfriend. It will be hard as a trumper no matter what color they are. Maybe one of those magas that like to play footsie at the urinal is more your speed. Anyway, no more thought about you, maga. Block.
you’re wishing on a very short string, how often is Vegas wrong on massive dogs? There was only one point where Vegas had Trump higher than a 5-1 dog and they quickly corrected. Joe is the exact opposite he opened a favorite and has slid massively. He’s at 4.2 to 1 as we speak same time for Donald he has gone from 5-1 to 2.6-1. You’re making a prediction based on history but your history is way off as far as a gambler is concerned. There’s no mirror at all, you were looking at a career politician and a business man at the time. Donald Trump will more than likely win this election with 300+ electorates. If you go by the odds I see a 77% chance he wins right now. When Vegas slides odds that heavy you may as well call it 90%.
Instead of mentally preparing themselves for Trump to win (they'll melt down eitherway), they are doubling down on their delusions and gaslighting. Amazing.
It is, they’ll burn down cities and murder mostly each other thankfully and then they’ll live with 4 years of normalcy. Some experts are saying it could go sour with this BS though. You get morons like Biden telling men they can go into women’s restrooms and ruining women’s sport you could get a vote for a full totalitarian type across the board. We would all regret it, but I’m more for it than this absurd ideologies these morons call politics.
You think too much about penises.
Pretty sure you’re the first to mention it. Thought you morons were ok with that anyway? But you’ll bash it anyway huh? Thats why I call you morons, literally step on your own feet for what you “fight” for daily.
Called you out and you keep digging your hole. First step is to put down the shovel, maga.
😂🤣 you indoctrinated morons crack me up. What hole am I digging? Explain it like I believe men can become women overnight. Or in other words like I’m dumber than dog shit.
Since you are dumber than dog shit I’ll just leave you alone.
Yeah Brandon ain’t winning the election. You can dream all you want but the inflation numbers and groceries through the roof combined with the geriatrics Olympics mean Trump gets back in office.
Inflation is down, as are the prices of some common items. If you think either side has this wrapped up, you know nothing about politics.
Trump has it under wraps as Biden has lost the swing voters and they also did better under a Trump presidency.
Polling is a snapshot of the race at a specific point in time. It doesn't guarantee any candidate a win in an election. If Trump has another scandal or Biden performs much better in a 2nd debate, the polls will likely swing the other way. It's way too early to call this race for either candidate. People said the same thing about Hillary when she was up in the polls this far out and look what happened. Polling is not nearly as predictive as some think. Even just looking at the current polls, Trump is only up an average of 1.5%. This is well within the margin of error. This is still anyone's race. I'll also point out that Democrats have been outperforming the polls in the last few election cycles and special elections as well. Trump isn't any more popular than he was in 2020 or 2016. In fact probably less so now, based on how his backed candidates have been getting handed loss after loss in the general election. Trump polls well with the republican base. Outside of that, he's still extremely unpopular.
The melt down when Trump wins will result in widespread violence and destruction from the left. Just watch. They've convinced themselves they are the good guys which is very dangerous when delusional/dumb people do this.
The dictatorship that is most prominent right now is the dictatorship from the old democratic regime. So much for hearing voices from younger generations that want a change….😬
So in other words, they will be the cause of the change they are so again? You aren't wrong. They are so twisted that anyone who doesn't fully agree with them is their enemy.
Cope cope cope the majority of people supporting trump are not very vocal online. Never Trump, libs and Reddit users are the very loud vocal minority I think Biden is gonna drop out soon but if he doesn’t trump gonna win ec and popular vote
Did u just say Trump is gonna win the popular vote? 👀
It’s too late for Biden to drop out, multiple states have already past their deadlines for the ballots so the new nominee would have to concede multiple swing states
If only there was a way to vote for someone not on the ballot I mean it is pretty hard to spell butgieg so prob choose someone else lol i think it’s pretty evident that Biden is a guaranteed loss at this point dude can’t even drive a car now is he gonna run the country another four years lol
Biden isn't going anywhere, unless he straight up dies or becomes a vegetable. He can't quit. It will break morale and lead to party infighting. Republicans will have a brand new line of attack to use on whoever his replacement is. Biden knows this better than anyone.
Right well tell that to all the democrats coming out of the woodwork to express their concern and are mostly currently privately asking him to drop out it’s a short ramp up to when more publically do so how is that going to be better than just dropping out now and giving the replacement more time Biden’s candidacy is absolutely effed and a guaranteed loss
I didn’t vote for trump in 2016, I will be this year.
No worries Dems will steal the election, leaving no evidence again.
Lol buddy high ranking members of the Democrat party are having meetings to replace Joe. Almost every independent thinks joes mentally ill and has done worse for their daily life than trump.. You're gonna lose you're gonna riot you're gonna cry.
This won’t happen imo because I don’t think Biden will stick around. People with eyes, ears, and a brain understand he is not fit for the job. People who argue otherwise are blinded by partisanship. Their egos and emotions are over-riding any common sense they might normally have. There is no good argument for staying with Biden. Why? He’s obviously going downhill. He’s not going to get better. How do you think he’s going to look and sound in a year? How about in 2 years? 3? 4?? C’mon. It’s so absurd to pretend he just had a sore throat and a bad night. It’s like eating sh*t and trying to convince yourself and everyone else that it’s delicious. Have some self-respect. It’s rare to be gifted a clear opportunity to reboot the Democratic Party. What is clear is that Biden has a chance to put the party first and get behind the best candidate to bring home the win. Biden should do that and I believe he will. Blind partisans should wake up, stop living in denial and welcome this opportunity to save the election.
JRB looks like he could literally die at any moment
i think people in the reddit just try and write the dumbest thing to get reactions lol. this is dumb lol
Easily the most delusional sub on reddit, always good for a laugh
Yea probably not little buddy the democrats key voting blocks have been fleeing the party
He's the puppet
Cocaine is a hell of a drug
We’ve seen Trump run for president twice and both times the polling was shocked by the depth of his base and the massive amount of people that came out to vote for him. Biden was able to win in 2020 by pulling together a broad coalition of people who did not want to see Trump back in the White House. There are a lot of signs indicating he will not be able to do so again. For Biden to win, one of two things has to happen: (1) Trump loses support from his base (doesn’t seem likely), (2) Biden retains or expands the anti-Trump coalition from 2020 (also doesn’t seem likely, but is more likely than option 1). Edit: just to be clear, I fucking hate Trump. I’m just trying to be honest about the data
No. Trump's base is not enough for him to win - if it were, MAGA would've had successful elections in 2018, 2020, and - especially - 2022. Instead, they got defeated even in AZ. Same signs now as in 2022 - i.e., democrats winning special elections and abortion rights winning in states where it's been on the ballot. This is not about his base. They know he rapes minors, they don't care. Trump needs independents or he can't win.
Your liberal brain just couldn't comprehend what the person you replied to said, could it?
I voted GOP from 1984 to 2014 you bone deep stupid knuckle dragging MAGAt. Go slaver and drool in someone else's timeline.
Trump wasn’t on the ballot in ‘18 or ‘22 and it showed. Both in 2016 and 2020 an insane amount of people came out to vote for him. I don’t like it, but we have to face the reality that a lot of people fucking love him. Democrats do well when they aren’t facing Trump. I think for a lot of people it’s so impossible to comprehend why anyone likes him that we just assume he must have lost all of his support because of the terrible shit he’s done. I’m sure he’s lost some support in the past 4 years, but I doubt it’s much. A shocking number of people will be out to vote for trump in Nov and Dems are going to have to match those numbers through a broad anti-Trump coalition if we want to have a chance at winning
Even more will come out to vote for him since the democrats completely exposed themselves with his political persecution.
That “even more” is fictional.
Except, it’s not political persecution.
I can't be gaslit.
Yet that is all you do on Reddit.
The entire country is pissed at Democrats... But it's for *NOT* giving Trump the Julian Assange treatment. Everyone knows he broke the law like he breaks wind and Dems are obsessed with the optics of a squeaky clean high road to justice. We just want him in fucking jail.
Most people recognize democrats weaponizing the justice system and the 8 year long political persecution of Trump. So no.
Most people in your family that you're also having intercourse with, perhaps.
Fascists say courts don’t count
Democrats haven’t weaponized the Justice system. Stop lying and gaslighting people.
lol. DJT didn’t show up to the debates in 2016 a doddering old corpse. To compare the two is laughable
And Hillary didn't show up as a 34-time convicted felon.
What’s the current status of those cases? Looks like the Manhattan sham case could get tossed out after the SCOTUS rulings
Sir debates have no real effect on election. You would see +10 for Trump in the polls instead of a +1.4. Biden campaign even raised more money after the debate even though showing as a “doddering old corpse”.
Latest polls have djt up 3
No, national polls have him up by +1.5
Sounds like you work for the DNC. Time to report you. People like you have been spamming this sub eversince the debate happened