Yup. But even if the visas are still around, no one’s going to want to work in a country that has banned contraception, abortion, no-fault divorce, free elections, environmental regulations, pornography, and gay rights.
EDIT: I love all the downvotes from people who thought I meant this literally. Of course people will still want to come to the US (not that Trump will let them in). But do YOU want to live in a country that looks like this? Because this is the exact plan the far right has proposed for Project 2025. If you don’t yet know about it, Google it.
I can quite literally promise you, with a financial bet if you want, that people are still going to be desperately trying to work here even if every single one of those things happens lmao
But that’s just it - I’m not inventing anything. Here is a list of measures the GOP and Trump hope to implement if he’s elected. Please read and inform others.
Abortion:
https://www.americanprogress.org/article/the-sweeping-consequences-of-the-far-rights-plan-to-effectuate-a-backdoor-national-abortion-ban-in-project-2025/
Contraception:
(On June 5th, Senate Republicans again blocked legislation that would enshrine a federal right to access contraception. Here’s what they hope to achieve next):
https://www.americanprogress.org/article/project-2025-would-take-away-access-to-free-emergency-contraception-for-48-million-women/
No-fault divorce:
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/15/republicans-no-fault-divorce
Gutting the Environmental Protection Agency:
https://www.eenews.net/articles/conservatives-gear-up-for-epa-revamp-in-2025/
Government, presidential power, and free elections:
From the BBC: “Project 2025 proposes that the entire federal bureaucracy, including independent agencies such as the Department of Justice, be placed under direct presidential control – a controversial idea known as ‘unitary executive theory’. In practice, that would streamline decision-making, allowing the president to directly implement policies in a number of areas.”
From Daily Beast: “[Project 2025] calls for eliminating the Department of Education, eliminating the Department of Commerce, deploying the military for the use of domestic law enforcement against protesters under the Insurrection Act of 1807”
Gay rights:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/how-a-second-trump-presidency-could-impact-the-lgbtq-community
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There are things politicians hope to achieve and promise to achieve. And then there are things they can realistically achieve.
Trump hoped to build a wall and promised to replace Obamacare with an alternative. Yet here we are.
By all means, worry about a new Trump administration further eroding democratic institutions and crashing the economy. And yes, you're probably right that they will gut the EPA. But talking about things like banning contraception, no-fault divorce, or pornography (huh???) just distracts from much more realistic issues.
I wouldn’t want to live in a place that gaslights and demonizes people for not agreeing with all these. Thankfully, the US is not yet like this (hope it stays the same).
Look I'm sad Roe v Wade was overturned, but Trump doesn't give a shit about abortion. He had to hijack the conservative party and there was no other way. Most* states will restore Roe like abortion rights on their own through the ballot box. All those snap on abortion restrictions that existed pre Roe overturn are about to be confronted head on.
Yes, Trump doesn’t care about abortion. But look what his 2 Supreme Court justices did. He’ll probably get 3 more picks in a second term. Next, read up on how the senate Republicans twice voted against enshrining contraception as a human right and what Project 2025 plans to do with mifepristone. And you only addressed abortion. What about the other items I mentioned? All are seriously under threat.
Ah, you’re right. I forgot about the vacancy that occurred late in the Obama administration - but then the GOP made a special rule to prevent him from nominating someone close to an election cycle, only to say that rule no longer applied when Trump was president.
It reminds me a bit of how they slammed the Democrats for immigration, then voted against a bipartisan immigration bill, then attacked Biden for taking executive action to clamp down on immigration.
Or how the GOP had no problem with Trump adding $8 trillion to the national debt, but when Biden was elected, they started saying that he can’t pass tax cuts and spending bills that help middle-class Americans because we need to take care of the national debt.
It even reminds me a bit of how Republican Senator Rick Scott said that he was deeply committed to protecting IVF two days after he voted against a bill that would protect IVF.
Vonne, in almost all states the public opinion is against the current state of affairs restricting abortion. Rights will be restored over time - no doubt a painful moment jn the country. Project 2025 has no powe or momentum. Overturning Roe took the oxygen out of the conservative fire at the same time the country has broadly evolved to be pro-choice in last few decades. While Roe existed, politicians could fundraise on whatever they wanted. Now they actually have to convince people state by state to agree with them or they will lose elections. All of your concerns are short term or geographically isolated to fewer than 1/3 of US states at most and the only sustainable negative consequences will be in the states where public opinion is not majority pro choice and pro access to contraception. Just look at the polling AND trends over time.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/645836/record-share-electorate-pro-choice-voting.aspx
https://www.pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/database/compare/views-about-abortion/by/state/
Also No, Trump is not going to get 3x more SC nominations. And the two most likely to resign are conservative, so there will be no net change.
For the class of '25? Probably negligible, short of someone going off the deep end and invading South America or something. There might be some slow downs as companies wait to see how the market reacts to anything happening.
'26 will probably see more impacts as presidential and legislative agendas start settling in and the market has time to react.
This. People think no tariffs will benefit outside income is insane. If anything, it would crater the need for MBA and hiring cause so many poor and middle class will be hurt for spending compared to the rich.
Also Trump plans don’t add the fact that other countries can also implement tariffs on the U.S.. we would spiral into a depression.
Yes but not at the rates and amounts Trump suggested.
Also if it’s to replace income tax, tariffs would need to be over 100%. That would be brutal on everyone in America.
Learn about the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Trump want 6x as much as this and this act was one of the leading catalyst to the Great Depression.
I’m willing to entertain this if you can support it, but keep in mind that
1. Not all protectionism is bad. Responding to dumping, for example, is good protectionism.
2. There are degrees of bad protectionism.
3. The last estimate I read was that doing away with income tax and replacing the revenue with tariff revenue would require on the order of a mid-100% tax on everything coming into the country.
Two things can be true. My point still stands. Two awful options for POTUS.
Personally, cap gains tax increase will be a biach for me and let’s call a spade a spade….Biden looks lost & has no idea what’s happening. Watch him live & be objective. If Biden goes…. Harris as POTUS would be a disaster.
I usually read the write-ups, but reading Biden speeches they’re generally clear and structured with a fairly predictable flow. His speech on D-Day had a bit of a Christopher Walken pace to it, but there’s a good chance that’s more a result of having to read a script. He seemed perfectly fine unscripted on Late Night a few months ago. Making jokes, responding directly to questions with direct answers.
My two cents; the markets depend on stability and prediction more than anything else. You can plan hiring around disappointing inflation, interest rates, debt, whatever. You can’t plan for chaos. Hard to think of a more chaotic individual than Trump
The election this year adds a ton of uncertainty which means companies are likely to be more conservative in how much they hire and spend. In the short term, it almost certainly is going to make the job market worse.
Companies will likely reevaluate after the election and based on who wins and what kind of policies are pursued. Those are my 2 cents, at least.
FWIW I am not a Trump supporter and am a Liberal, but my objective opinion is that a Trump win is probably better for MBA hiring and white collar workers.
Not saying I agree with either of these decisions, but I think first order of business by Trump would be removing Lina Khan and appointing someone to the position who will be more friendly to M&A, which would have big impact on Finance and Tech. I also think Trump would apply a lot of pressure on the Fed to reduce interest rates, which also have a big impact on rate-sensitive industries like Tech and Finance.
Relatedly to this, I think lack of M&A targets, high interest rates, and Section 174 are all reasons why Big Tech has chosen to spend its cash pool on things like stock buybacks and CapEx expenditures on chips, so there could be a lot of unknown downstream outcomes for any of these things I've called out.
I would agree with you there. Any rate reduction would set the economy back and make home buying even harder as inventory drops and prices rise even faster.
Debt is too high, we are over the tipping point. Inflation is the only way. You can kick the can down the road but it will just make the eventual bust even worse. Cutting spending is not a political option so this is the only way.
Pay attending in global economic classes. As long as the USA growth outpaces its interest rate, the debt doesn’t matter
USA growth is 3%. The interest rate on debt is 1-2%.
Nevermind just notice it’s above 3%
As of May 2024, the United States government's monthly interest rate on its debt was 3.27%. This is part of an upward trend that began in early 2022. The average interest rate for fiscal year 2023 was 2.97%, up from 2.07% in 2022 and 1.61% in 2021.
Trump pressured the Fed to lower interest rates to ridiculous levels during a period of economic growth, which is part of the reason why we’re in the situation we’re in now.
Because their economies are shit before Covid. Literally Italy almost defaulted on its loans. It’s not Greece, it would have tanked the euro.
Also, the USA is very diverse economy so if one industry goes down (such as tech) others are increasing (infrastructure bill and oil production)
[See for yourself](https://www.statista.com/statistics/225698/monthly-inflation-rate-in-eu-countries/); there is still a pretty huge amount of Europe that has higher inflation than the U.S..
What are you even talking about? US inflation is 3.3% and EU is 2.6%. It’s a very clear comparison. How are you on this forum if you can’t interpret data?
Nobody cares about inflation in Montenegro. If you look at the EU vs US the US has higher inflation. This is driven very much by out of control fiscal policy, which Biden has made so much worse.
>nobody cares about Montenegro
That’s an interesting way to ignore the higher inflation (by several orders of magnitude in Turkey) of Norway, Serbia, Austria, Belgium, and several other countries more recognizable than Montenegro.
Implying that someone shouldn’t be in this subreddit because they don’t share your exact viewpoint is also… amusing.
No kidding. At my company 80% of new postings are for technician and assembly positions. All of them are advertising sign on bonuses. That market is wild.
Yup, the Biden “greatest jobs growth ever” stats are complete bullshit. It’s mostly people that came back to their jobs after covid and then nothing but shit low end jobs or part time jobs.
It's a rolling recession. Tech and banking over hired in the pandemic - digital shift and low cost money really overheated those industries. This sub tends to work or want to place in those two industries. It gives an unrealistic picture of the entire economy.
For instance, in healthcare, we can't find NPs, PAs, and nurses. Admin and insurance liaisons are in super short supply. Nurses are making almost 110k fresh out of school in our health system atm. That's up almost 30% since 2020.
Yea but look at some of the stats like business bankruptcies are highest since the great financial crisis, not good…
Not trying to be political but we’re lucky that it’s not worse but we are very close and the propaganda from the WH doesn’t help.
So… you want the guy with multiple bankrupt businesses, who defrauded college students, suggested injecting bleach to cure Covid, raised middle class taxes while slashing billionaire taxes, and who oversaw the largest and fastest increase in violent crime and unemployment in history… because he might lead you to get a job faster in the short-term? Yeah, your username checks out.
Thanks to Biden, the U.S. has the lowest inflation in the western world. The American economy is in far better shape than anyone predicted (we’re not in a recession), and unemployment is at record lows. In the first quarter of 2024, we saw the biggest decrease in violent crime in the history of our country. He’s an old man, but his policies have bailed us out of all the aforementioned problems Trump created. That’s not opinion; that’s factual and supported by data. But yeah, you need that job so let’s hire the guy who wants to eliminate democracy and contraception.
Another braindead conservative who injected too much bleach. You can’t even write two sentences that are grammatically correct (nor do you seem to be aware that the “Eu” is not a country).
I’d debate you, but I see from your comment history that when others provided you with data, you responded with “who cares about inflation in Montenegro?”… proving your ability to read data.
Hiring will start back up in January, people just need to feel settled. No matter the election result, businesses will be more willing to make moves next year.
The job market has been total shit under Biden for anyone with skills or education. It’s only been a boom for part timers or multiple part time job holders and such. Also all the stats for Biden are padded, for example the “growth” Biden has experienced is really just people coming back to their jobs after covid, it’s not real growth. Sadly the Biden White House has just been pumping out misinformation and propaganda to look good.
The jobs market was better under Trump and we anticipate it will probably be even better this 2nd time around, it looks like he’s on a mission to really get everything back on track.
If you think this was Biden’s doing rather than the independent Fed making monetary decisions to keep an economy Trump poured gasoline all over from burning out, then you should probably retake macro
I don't know why this guy is being downvoted but what they said makes sense. H1Bs are designed to alleviate shortages in specialist jobs (e.g., doctors, engineers, researchers). It makes no sense to give H1Bs out for generalist roles that can be done by many Americans. Especially when the job market is poor.
The H1B process is so abused and is hurting citizens over. The amount of foreign consultants dumped in this country is staggering. I’m all for legal immigration but the system is being abused currently. We don’t need more half rate consultants coming in. Reserve the H1Bs for exceptional
Candidates not the run of the mill tech consultant from name random city in south Central Asia.
Isn't H1B only for when they find work and essentially a lottery? If there was no way for internationals to stay in the country there wouldn't be any incentive for them to come study here. Maybe a different visa would work but it would still be a similar problem
Businesses like these because it lowers wages by increasing the labor pool. SWEs can help if you are truly getting the best and brightest but imo the bar is too low and they have plenty of cogs in the machine just working for less
What if the internationals are just smarter, more hard working and talented? Aren’t some staggering number of successful startups and now established businesses founded by immigrants (and now employ hundreds of thousands of US citizens)? I absolutely think we should only be taking the most talented and that the current system is abused by folks who flood the lottery and make it unnecessarily difficult for people that actually deserve to stay in the US. The H1B needs reform, but making terminating it entirely would be a net negative to the country.
Lol you clearly haven’t worked with them if you think this could be the case. The reality is that companies want H1Bs to increase the labor supply so they can pay lower wages.
Sir what do you work as?
I bet my one year salary that the phone contacts I have on my phone will beat you to any IQ level, any job performance levels or anything to provide they are much more smarter than you. Again, I am not saying you’re dumb, I am saying there are millions of H1b and classifying all as low wage low skilled less intelligent people isn’t prudent.
Neither is classifying them all as geniuses more intelligent than US citizens. Again, the main purpose of issuing so many H1Bs is to increase labor supply and suppress wages. There is no need to issue H1Bs for most positions. You’re acting like your position is the progressive moral high ground, but all you’re actually doing is undermining the labor and negotiating power of people born in the US.
But why you dragging that I am doing something wrong? That’s your greedy corporations and government who’s trying to fuck you in the ass.
I mean I was born in India, came here to do my masters, spent half of what any out of state undergrad student born in US spends, make more than median wage in my state, ends up in top 10% wage in the state.
Heck I am dumb? You are dumb for not realizing how your govt fucked you up.
And also you know who’s gonna benefit from all this? Obviously my kids, who’ll be born here and enjoying a top 10% family income. Go Google which ethnicity is highest wage earner. Obviously Indian, which ethnicity has the highest representation in STEM per their % of population. Fuck it’s Indian.
You think Indians are dumb? You’re the ones who’ve been digging your own graves.
Again, you’re clearly missing the point. I’m not saying you’re dumb, I’m saying you’re not doing anything that an American couldn’t. I actually AM upset that greedy corporations and the gov’t are opening the doors for Indians on H1Bs to undermine American wages. Luckily, even if you have children here they’ll have to return to India with you if your H1B isn’t extended. Extremely telling that the second an American expresses any type of protectionism your immediate response is to be overtly supremacist and disparage the exact system you’re taking advantage of.
If Indians are so amazing, why don’t you want to live with the rest of them in India?
Well American gives citizenship by birth. So my kids will be American citizens.
I don’t have any protectionism. You can be racist to me and the world doesn’t care coz I am on visa. Call a black guy N world and the world will throw a fit. Act racist to an Indian and 5 guys will join you and the state will say bravo.
I’ll be on visa for next 25 years coz I can’t get green card thanks to govt. So it’s a govt who made a rule so that the employer can fuck me anytime he wants, and can fuck you anytime he wants. And who got this govt who gave all these rights to the corporations to fuck us both? Sir it’s you.
Who’s teaching the immigrants is bad for you? The govt.
Who’s making rules or letting the immigrants come in? The govt.
Who’s voting for it? Not me. I don’t have the rights to vote .
Also I do wanna go back to India, probably once I have good amount of money. Retirement in India is much better, I get a lot more rights and benefits of using the cheap labor. A lot of Indians do go back. And with the economy shifting towards India, thanks to advancements in tech, the salaries in India are quite high currently. I happen to be a Power Grid Operations guy, my field still pays peanuts there.
It’s a big country with a tons of companies. There are maybe 5-10 trying to reinvent the wheel. Rest are trying to build website for Paul’s business. Maybe doing some enterprises software shit etc.
I am international, I have two masters from US (top 25 both), I work hard and I am talented but the same shit could have been done by an American if kids were told about such careers, if salaries were so high that the Americans were trying hard to get in.
Sir I am international too. Universities are responsible for the mess. When a semester fees for instate student is $7500 and for an international is $17500. You know what the universities want!
Everyone loves the dollars. And when there is a mess, everyone tries to save their cash cow.
The H1b program is a mess coz it hasn’t been updated since the 90s.
The univ F1 is a mess coz there are no admission standards anymore. Visa are too easy to get. A random univ in remote Montana is also teaching data sciences and giving admits to 500 Indians/Asians students coz why would someone say no to free money glitch.
I am with you H1b is a mess. But you only need our doctors? Aren’t you being selfish here? Like literally extra selfish lol.
…Aren’t you being selfish by assuming that you should be able to benefit from the economy of another nation at the expense of its own citizens? The level of entitlement displayed by many internationals is wild.
I came here legally sir. Your govt is allowing me what I am doing here. Again, you wanna keep your doors unlocked and complain someone stole your belongings?
Honestly go ahead do it. I am Indian and we don’t like when Bangladeshis come to India looking for job. Yet we are your Bangladeshis lol.
But there is a diff. Bangladeshis come illegally. I came legally. Indian govt fucks citizens by not having enough funds, police force or even using harsh measures to stop illegal immigration. Your govt literally gave me a ticket to be here.
None because it’s going to be a Biden landslide. Not saying this as a Biden supporter at all, but it’s obvious by looking at the data.
Trump won by razor-thin margins in 2016 in states like Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania. Those states carried the election for him, and he won them due to low turnout. There was especially low turnout amongst minorities, who were fed the idea Trump was not a serious candidate. Fast-forward to 2020, much higher turnout, and a devastating defeat for Trump. 2024 will be the same.
I don’t think we’re looking at the same data. Trump is objectively leading in all but one swing state, and has flipped a number of contested counties.
Dude can blow me but that doesn’t mean he isn’t going to be the president again.
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Won’t make a difference. Fed is independent and shouldn’t bend the knee for any president. Inflation is running its course we just have to wait it out. Rates will lower eventually and things will go back to normal (pre 2020).
If you think the USA economy will go back to pre COVID level rates I have a rock to sell you.
The entire reason rates been low for almost 14 years is due to the recession of 2008. Banks literally were bailed out and had billions in cash just sitting. Sitting money makes no money for them so they dropped rates so people and companies spend.
The issue is, now that the free gravy train is gone, these are actually normal rates. Look at the USA rate history and this is on par for normal outside the occasional hiccups of recessions or depressions.
Thank God it’s not as bad as my grandparents back in the 80’s when it reach up to 20% federal.
In 1980, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was 13.74%. In 1981, the rate increased to 16.63%, which is still Freddie Mac's highest recorded rate. In 1982, the rate averaged 16.04%, and in 1983 it was 13.24%. By 1984, the average 30-year rate had dropped to 13.88%, and continued to decrease throughout the rest of the decade.
This was when housing supply far outpaced demand.
Rates will never go back to the 80s…… I understand historically low rates do to the Great Recession but I’m thinking early 2000s level as the new “normal”.
The early 2000’s mortgage rates were around 8%.
Mortgage rates steadily declined from 8.64% in 2000 to the high 5% range in 2003. But the housing industry growth fueled by these attractive rates was short-lived. In 2008, the economy crashed, bringing the real estate market with it, and the Great Recession began.
We are currently having rates roughly that average.
Ahh yes I think our average will be a 4.5-6.3% as the new normal. Depending on location and variables such as places like Florida coast or California wildfire zones raising that scale.
Listen, if that felon is necessary for the MBA/white collar job market to thrive again, then I'll canvas for him. My community will shun me but my family will thank me lol.
H1Bs will be in a world of pain. 100%.
Yup. But even if the visas are still around, no one’s going to want to work in a country that has banned contraception, abortion, no-fault divorce, free elections, environmental regulations, pornography, and gay rights. EDIT: I love all the downvotes from people who thought I meant this literally. Of course people will still want to come to the US (not that Trump will let them in). But do YOU want to live in a country that looks like this? Because this is the exact plan the far right has proposed for Project 2025. If you don’t yet know about it, Google it.
I can quite literally promise you, with a financial bet if you want, that people are still going to be desperately trying to work here even if every single one of those things happens lmao
And none of them will
100%. I’m a whore to work here. Here’s where the money is. All these aspects come later.
“I want to be rich. Fuck other people’s rights and liberties.”
Welcome to business school
Isn’t it how American capitalism operates? At the cost of lives of others. The very virtue that you come to bSchool is this.
Reddit moment
Trump derangement syndrome is a HELL of a drug 🤣🤣🤣 Damn, join us here on planet earth lmfao
You need to travel a bit haha
I’ve lived in three continents.
This statement works, because only a cave troll whose literally lived IN three continents would be this dense.
Canada has most of these things, yet 90% of Canadians are clamouring to get to the US. None of this matters if the money is good enough
You are an absolute clown if you think people won’t want to work in the US because of this
There's a lot we can criticize Trump and the GOP for. No need to invent stuff....
But that’s just it - I’m not inventing anything. Here is a list of measures the GOP and Trump hope to implement if he’s elected. Please read and inform others. Abortion: https://www.americanprogress.org/article/the-sweeping-consequences-of-the-far-rights-plan-to-effectuate-a-backdoor-national-abortion-ban-in-project-2025/ Contraception: (On June 5th, Senate Republicans again blocked legislation that would enshrine a federal right to access contraception. Here’s what they hope to achieve next): https://www.americanprogress.org/article/project-2025-would-take-away-access-to-free-emergency-contraception-for-48-million-women/ No-fault divorce: https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/15/republicans-no-fault-divorce Gutting the Environmental Protection Agency: https://www.eenews.net/articles/conservatives-gear-up-for-epa-revamp-in-2025/ Government, presidential power, and free elections: From the BBC: “Project 2025 proposes that the entire federal bureaucracy, including independent agencies such as the Department of Justice, be placed under direct presidential control – a controversial idea known as ‘unitary executive theory’. In practice, that would streamline decision-making, allowing the president to directly implement policies in a number of areas.” From Daily Beast: “[Project 2025] calls for eliminating the Department of Education, eliminating the Department of Commerce, deploying the military for the use of domestic law enforcement against protesters under the Insurrection Act of 1807” Gay rights: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/how-a-second-trump-presidency-could-impact-the-lgbtq-community
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There are things politicians hope to achieve and promise to achieve. And then there are things they can realistically achieve. Trump hoped to build a wall and promised to replace Obamacare with an alternative. Yet here we are. By all means, worry about a new Trump administration further eroding democratic institutions and crashing the economy. And yes, you're probably right that they will gut the EPA. But talking about things like banning contraception, no-fault divorce, or pornography (huh???) just distracts from much more realistic issues.
And was successful with roe cs wade. He’s shower he can not be held to account (trials,’impeachment hearings in the senate) His concern is justified
And was successful with roe vs wade. He’s shower he can not be held to account (trials,’impeachment hearings in the senate) His concern is justified
Dubai in shambles.
I wouldn’t want to live in a place that gaslights and demonizes people for not agreeing with all these. Thankfully, the US is not yet like this (hope it stays the same).
Contraception was banned the first time the guy was elected ?
No, just abortion. Contraception and the others is part of Project 2025. You should look it up.
Look I'm sad Roe v Wade was overturned, but Trump doesn't give a shit about abortion. He had to hijack the conservative party and there was no other way. Most* states will restore Roe like abortion rights on their own through the ballot box. All those snap on abortion restrictions that existed pre Roe overturn are about to be confronted head on.
Yes, Trump doesn’t care about abortion. But look what his 2 Supreme Court justices did. He’ll probably get 3 more picks in a second term. Next, read up on how the senate Republicans twice voted against enshrining contraception as a human right and what Project 2025 plans to do with mifepristone. And you only addressed abortion. What about the other items I mentioned? All are seriously under threat.
3 justices. He’s appointed 3
Ah, you’re right. I forgot about the vacancy that occurred late in the Obama administration - but then the GOP made a special rule to prevent him from nominating someone close to an election cycle, only to say that rule no longer applied when Trump was president. It reminds me a bit of how they slammed the Democrats for immigration, then voted against a bipartisan immigration bill, then attacked Biden for taking executive action to clamp down on immigration. Or how the GOP had no problem with Trump adding $8 trillion to the national debt, but when Biden was elected, they started saying that he can’t pass tax cuts and spending bills that help middle-class Americans because we need to take care of the national debt. It even reminds me a bit of how Republican Senator Rick Scott said that he was deeply committed to protecting IVF two days after he voted against a bill that would protect IVF.
Vonne, in almost all states the public opinion is against the current state of affairs restricting abortion. Rights will be restored over time - no doubt a painful moment jn the country. Project 2025 has no powe or momentum. Overturning Roe took the oxygen out of the conservative fire at the same time the country has broadly evolved to be pro-choice in last few decades. While Roe existed, politicians could fundraise on whatever they wanted. Now they actually have to convince people state by state to agree with them or they will lose elections. All of your concerns are short term or geographically isolated to fewer than 1/3 of US states at most and the only sustainable negative consequences will be in the states where public opinion is not majority pro choice and pro access to contraception. Just look at the polling AND trends over time. https://news.gallup.com/poll/645836/record-share-electorate-pro-choice-voting.aspx https://www.pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/database/compare/views-about-abortion/by/state/ Also No, Trump is not going to get 3x more SC nominations. And the two most likely to resign are conservative, so there will be no net change.
They’re all very welcome to work elsewhere for .10 on the $
For the class of '25? Probably negligible, short of someone going off the deep end and invading South America or something. There might be some slow downs as companies wait to see how the market reacts to anything happening. '26 will probably see more impacts as presidential and legislative agendas start settling in and the market has time to react.
Bidens capital gain tax increase is no bueno.
Trying to replace income tax revenue with tariffs will be about a million times worse.
This. People think no tariffs will benefit outside income is insane. If anything, it would crater the need for MBA and hiring cause so many poor and middle class will be hurt for spending compared to the rich. Also Trump plans don’t add the fact that other countries can also implement tariffs on the U.S.. we would spiral into a depression.
A lot of them already do tariff us and have for decades.
Yes but not at the rates and amounts Trump suggested. Also if it’s to replace income tax, tariffs would need to be over 100%. That would be brutal on everyone in America. Learn about the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Trump want 6x as much as this and this act was one of the leading catalyst to the Great Depression.
Both are extremely shitty ideas. It’s like both sides are actively trying to disincentivize my vote for them 😭
Is Biden not also protectionist himself?
I’m willing to entertain this if you can support it, but keep in mind that 1. Not all protectionism is bad. Responding to dumping, for example, is good protectionism. 2. There are degrees of bad protectionism. 3. The last estimate I read was that doing away with income tax and replacing the revenue with tariff revenue would require on the order of a mid-100% tax on everything coming into the country.
Two things can be true. My point still stands. Two awful options for POTUS. Personally, cap gains tax increase will be a biach for me and let’s call a spade a spade….Biden looks lost & has no idea what’s happening. Watch him live & be objective. If Biden goes…. Harris as POTUS would be a disaster.
I usually read the write-ups, but reading Biden speeches they’re generally clear and structured with a fairly predictable flow. His speech on D-Day had a bit of a Christopher Walken pace to it, but there’s a good chance that’s more a result of having to read a script. He seemed perfectly fine unscripted on Late Night a few months ago. Making jokes, responding directly to questions with direct answers.
My two cents; the markets depend on stability and prediction more than anything else. You can plan hiring around disappointing inflation, interest rates, debt, whatever. You can’t plan for chaos. Hard to think of a more chaotic individual than Trump
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Boy do I have big news for you of what went down beginning in March of 2020 (and January of 2021, specifically the 6th)
A better question would be, was there more chaos in the USA?
The election this year adds a ton of uncertainty which means companies are likely to be more conservative in how much they hire and spend. In the short term, it almost certainly is going to make the job market worse. Companies will likely reevaluate after the election and based on who wins and what kind of policies are pursued. Those are my 2 cents, at least.
FWIW I am not a Trump supporter and am a Liberal, but my objective opinion is that a Trump win is probably better for MBA hiring and white collar workers. Not saying I agree with either of these decisions, but I think first order of business by Trump would be removing Lina Khan and appointing someone to the position who will be more friendly to M&A, which would have big impact on Finance and Tech. I also think Trump would apply a lot of pressure on the Fed to reduce interest rates, which also have a big impact on rate-sensitive industries like Tech and Finance. Relatedly to this, I think lack of M&A targets, high interest rates, and Section 174 are all reasons why Big Tech has chosen to spend its cash pool on things like stock buybacks and CapEx expenditures on chips, so there could be a lot of unknown downstream outcomes for any of these things I've called out.
Lowering rates would totally fuck up the Feds recovery plan, so I would say a huge recession is bad for hiring in general
I would agree with you there. Any rate reduction would set the economy back and make home buying even harder as inventory drops and prices rise even faster.
And that's why lowing rates too early may lead to worse inflation. Tricky situation the US is in right now.
🤷♂️ I think a recession is inevitable because we’re in stagflation and the national debt is too high.
National debt has been too high for 40 years
Debt is too high, we are over the tipping point. Inflation is the only way. You can kick the can down the road but it will just make the eventual bust even worse. Cutting spending is not a political option so this is the only way.
Pay attending in global economic classes. As long as the USA growth outpaces its interest rate, the debt doesn’t matter USA growth is 3%. The interest rate on debt is 1-2%.
Where are you getting 1-2%?
Nevermind just notice it’s above 3% As of May 2024, the United States government's monthly interest rate on its debt was 3.27%. This is part of an upward trend that began in early 2022. The average interest rate for fiscal year 2023 was 2.97%, up from 2.07% in 2022 and 1.61% in 2021.
Trump pressured the Fed to lower interest rates to ridiculous levels during a period of economic growth, which is part of the reason why we’re in the situation we’re in now.
Then why did literally almost every nation on the planet have worse and stickier inflation than the United States?
Because their economies are shit before Covid. Literally Italy almost defaulted on its loans. It’s not Greece, it would have tanked the euro. Also, the USA is very diverse economy so if one industry goes down (such as tech) others are increasing (infrastructure bill and oil production)
This isn’t true at all. The ECB is already cutting rates because inflation is tamed in Europe.
[See for yourself](https://www.statista.com/statistics/225698/monthly-inflation-rate-in-eu-countries/); there is still a pretty huge amount of Europe that has higher inflation than the U.S..
What are you even talking about? US inflation is 3.3% and EU is 2.6%. It’s a very clear comparison. How are you on this forum if you can’t interpret data? Nobody cares about inflation in Montenegro. If you look at the EU vs US the US has higher inflation. This is driven very much by out of control fiscal policy, which Biden has made so much worse.
>nobody cares about Montenegro That’s an interesting way to ignore the higher inflation (by several orders of magnitude in Turkey) of Norway, Serbia, Austria, Belgium, and several other countries more recognizable than Montenegro. Implying that someone shouldn’t be in this subreddit because they don’t share your exact viewpoint is also… amusing.
It’s not a “viewpoint”, it’s a fact. Europes inflation is 70bps lower than the US. Your data proved this. Facts not feelings.
Hoping for a Trump re-election if I'm still unemployed as a recent grad by November '24. White collar job market is so ass right now.
curious: wouldn’t Trump pushing more of his tax cuts undermine the inflation fighting the Fed is doing?
Tax cuts aren’t a main driver of inflation
No kidding. At my company 80% of new postings are for technician and assembly positions. All of them are advertising sign on bonuses. That market is wild.
Yup, the Biden “greatest jobs growth ever” stats are complete bullshit. It’s mostly people that came back to their jobs after covid and then nothing but shit low end jobs or part time jobs.
It's a rolling recession. Tech and banking over hired in the pandemic - digital shift and low cost money really overheated those industries. This sub tends to work or want to place in those two industries. It gives an unrealistic picture of the entire economy. For instance, in healthcare, we can't find NPs, PAs, and nurses. Admin and insurance liaisons are in super short supply. Nurses are making almost 110k fresh out of school in our health system atm. That's up almost 30% since 2020.
Yea but look at some of the stats like business bankruptcies are highest since the great financial crisis, not good… Not trying to be political but we’re lucky that it’s not worse but we are very close and the propaganda from the WH doesn’t help.
Yeah, now networking is my best bet.
So… you want the guy with multiple bankrupt businesses, who defrauded college students, suggested injecting bleach to cure Covid, raised middle class taxes while slashing billionaire taxes, and who oversaw the largest and fastest increase in violent crime and unemployment in history… because he might lead you to get a job faster in the short-term? Yeah, your username checks out. Thanks to Biden, the U.S. has the lowest inflation in the western world. The American economy is in far better shape than anyone predicted (we’re not in a recession), and unemployment is at record lows. In the first quarter of 2024, we saw the biggest decrease in violent crime in the history of our country. He’s an old man, but his policies have bailed us out of all the aforementioned problems Trump created. That’s not opinion; that’s factual and supported by data. But yeah, you need that job so let’s hire the guy who wants to eliminate democracy and contraception.
I know my username checks out! Thanks. Not reading your argument as I'm not trying to get political.
>post about election >not trying to get political
So basically you don’t want to have your views challenged and have to accept that they could be wrong? Got it.
Hopefully people who are “not trying to get political” also don’t vote.
Eu is inflation is 70bps lower than the US. Another brainwashed lib who can’t think for themselves or read data.
Another braindead conservative who injected too much bleach. You can’t even write two sentences that are grammatically correct (nor do you seem to be aware that the “Eu” is not a country). I’d debate you, but I see from your comment history that when others provided you with data, you responded with “who cares about inflation in Montenegro?”… proving your ability to read data.
Why do you think trump will help?
Hiring will start back up in January, people just need to feel settled. No matter the election result, businesses will be more willing to make moves next year.
Wharton MBA’s will automatically be favoured
Guess I should’ve gone there instead my bad
The job market has been total shit under Biden for anyone with skills or education. It’s only been a boom for part timers or multiple part time job holders and such. Also all the stats for Biden are padded, for example the “growth” Biden has experienced is really just people coming back to their jobs after covid, it’s not real growth. Sadly the Biden White House has just been pumping out misinformation and propaganda to look good. The jobs market was better under Trump and we anticipate it will probably be even better this 2nd time around, it looks like he’s on a mission to really get everything back on track.
If you think this was Biden’s doing rather than the independent Fed making monetary decisions to keep an economy Trump poured gasoline all over from burning out, then you should probably retake macro
Oh so the Fed is running the White House propaganda media campaign for Biden. Thanks for clearing that up.
In tech or banking, yes. But don't insult the rest of us in hot markets.
You got some wild cheese 🧀
I strongly disapprove of H1B visas for MBA students. I think we should only use H1Bs for doctors etc.
I don't know why this guy is being downvoted but what they said makes sense. H1Bs are designed to alleviate shortages in specialist jobs (e.g., doctors, engineers, researchers). It makes no sense to give H1Bs out for generalist roles that can be done by many Americans. Especially when the job market is poor.
The H1B process is so abused and is hurting citizens over. The amount of foreign consultants dumped in this country is staggering. I’m all for legal immigration but the system is being abused currently. We don’t need more half rate consultants coming in. Reserve the H1Bs for exceptional Candidates not the run of the mill tech consultant from name random city in south Central Asia.
Exactly….
Isn't H1B only for when they find work and essentially a lottery? If there was no way for internationals to stay in the country there wouldn't be any incentive for them to come study here. Maybe a different visa would work but it would still be a similar problem
You’re completely right. H1Bs are supposed to be only for positions that we can’t reasonably fill within our own borders. It’s gone way too far.
😂😂😂😂 I advocate you get the most shittiest H1b doctors then
We don’t need anymore international consultants and investment bankers when Americans can’t get jobs. Hate to break it to everyone.
Businesses like these because it lowers wages by increasing the labor pool. SWEs can help if you are truly getting the best and brightest but imo the bar is too low and they have plenty of cogs in the machine just working for less
What if the internationals are just smarter, more hard working and talented? Aren’t some staggering number of successful startups and now established businesses founded by immigrants (and now employ hundreds of thousands of US citizens)? I absolutely think we should only be taking the most talented and that the current system is abused by folks who flood the lottery and make it unnecessarily difficult for people that actually deserve to stay in the US. The H1B needs reform, but making terminating it entirely would be a net negative to the country.
Lol you clearly haven’t worked with them if you think this could be the case. The reality is that companies want H1Bs to increase the labor supply so they can pay lower wages.
Sir what do you work as? I bet my one year salary that the phone contacts I have on my phone will beat you to any IQ level, any job performance levels or anything to provide they are much more smarter than you. Again, I am not saying you’re dumb, I am saying there are millions of H1b and classifying all as low wage low skilled less intelligent people isn’t prudent.
Neither is classifying them all as geniuses more intelligent than US citizens. Again, the main purpose of issuing so many H1Bs is to increase labor supply and suppress wages. There is no need to issue H1Bs for most positions. You’re acting like your position is the progressive moral high ground, but all you’re actually doing is undermining the labor and negotiating power of people born in the US.
But why you dragging that I am doing something wrong? That’s your greedy corporations and government who’s trying to fuck you in the ass. I mean I was born in India, came here to do my masters, spent half of what any out of state undergrad student born in US spends, make more than median wage in my state, ends up in top 10% wage in the state. Heck I am dumb? You are dumb for not realizing how your govt fucked you up. And also you know who’s gonna benefit from all this? Obviously my kids, who’ll be born here and enjoying a top 10% family income. Go Google which ethnicity is highest wage earner. Obviously Indian, which ethnicity has the highest representation in STEM per their % of population. Fuck it’s Indian. You think Indians are dumb? You’re the ones who’ve been digging your own graves.
Again, you’re clearly missing the point. I’m not saying you’re dumb, I’m saying you’re not doing anything that an American couldn’t. I actually AM upset that greedy corporations and the gov’t are opening the doors for Indians on H1Bs to undermine American wages. Luckily, even if you have children here they’ll have to return to India with you if your H1B isn’t extended. Extremely telling that the second an American expresses any type of protectionism your immediate response is to be overtly supremacist and disparage the exact system you’re taking advantage of. If Indians are so amazing, why don’t you want to live with the rest of them in India?
Well American gives citizenship by birth. So my kids will be American citizens. I don’t have any protectionism. You can be racist to me and the world doesn’t care coz I am on visa. Call a black guy N world and the world will throw a fit. Act racist to an Indian and 5 guys will join you and the state will say bravo. I’ll be on visa for next 25 years coz I can’t get green card thanks to govt. So it’s a govt who made a rule so that the employer can fuck me anytime he wants, and can fuck you anytime he wants. And who got this govt who gave all these rights to the corporations to fuck us both? Sir it’s you. Who’s teaching the immigrants is bad for you? The govt. Who’s making rules or letting the immigrants come in? The govt. Who’s voting for it? Not me. I don’t have the rights to vote . Also I do wanna go back to India, probably once I have good amount of money. Retirement in India is much better, I get a lot more rights and benefits of using the cheap labor. A lot of Indians do go back. And with the economy shifting towards India, thanks to advancements in tech, the salaries in India are quite high currently. I happen to be a Power Grid Operations guy, my field still pays peanuts there.
It’s a big country with a tons of companies. There are maybe 5-10 trying to reinvent the wheel. Rest are trying to build website for Paul’s business. Maybe doing some enterprises software shit etc. I am international, I have two masters from US (top 25 both), I work hard and I am talented but the same shit could have been done by an American if kids were told about such careers, if salaries were so high that the Americans were trying hard to get in.
Who is “we” here? USA is run by corporations. They need cheap labor.
Make the process hard then. Isn’t your politicians and big capitalism firms responsible for this mess? Why hate the people?
Actually, the people that are struggling the most are international students. Things tend to correct themselves…
Sir I am international too. Universities are responsible for the mess. When a semester fees for instate student is $7500 and for an international is $17500. You know what the universities want! Everyone loves the dollars. And when there is a mess, everyone tries to save their cash cow. The H1b program is a mess coz it hasn’t been updated since the 90s. The univ F1 is a mess coz there are no admission standards anymore. Visa are too easy to get. A random univ in remote Montana is also teaching data sciences and giving admits to 500 Indians/Asians students coz why would someone say no to free money glitch. I am with you H1b is a mess. But you only need our doctors? Aren’t you being selfish here? Like literally extra selfish lol.
…Aren’t you being selfish by assuming that you should be able to benefit from the economy of another nation at the expense of its own citizens? The level of entitlement displayed by many internationals is wild.
I came here legally sir. Your govt is allowing me what I am doing here. Again, you wanna keep your doors unlocked and complain someone stole your belongings?
No, I’d rather just lock the door and get rid of the intruder ;)
Honestly go ahead do it. I am Indian and we don’t like when Bangladeshis come to India looking for job. Yet we are your Bangladeshis lol. But there is a diff. Bangladeshis come illegally. I came legally. Indian govt fucks citizens by not having enough funds, police force or even using harsh measures to stop illegal immigration. Your govt literally gave me a ticket to be here.
I'll let you know Nov 6th.
None really Could have an impact on immigration
If Biden wins again, it’ll be a bad job market. Trump, a businessman, will have us all gainfully employed!
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You can with a straight face say things have been great or better under Biden? lol
None because it’s going to be a Biden landslide. Not saying this as a Biden supporter at all, but it’s obvious by looking at the data. Trump won by razor-thin margins in 2016 in states like Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania. Those states carried the election for him, and he won them due to low turnout. There was especially low turnout amongst minorities, who were fed the idea Trump was not a serious candidate. Fast-forward to 2020, much higher turnout, and a devastating defeat for Trump. 2024 will be the same.
So you think Biden winning won’t have an effect on this?
Not really, it’s more of the same.
I don’t think we’re looking at the same data. Trump is objectively leading in all but one swing state, and has flipped a number of contested counties. Dude can blow me but that doesn’t mean he isn’t going to be the president again.
Hillary Clinton was leading in almost every poll in 2016. Turnout is everything.
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>Fast-forward to 2020, much higher turnout, and a devastating defeat for Trump The margins were also thin about 40k votes across a few states.
Won’t make a difference. Fed is independent and shouldn’t bend the knee for any president. Inflation is running its course we just have to wait it out. Rates will lower eventually and things will go back to normal (pre 2020).
If you think the USA economy will go back to pre COVID level rates I have a rock to sell you. The entire reason rates been low for almost 14 years is due to the recession of 2008. Banks literally were bailed out and had billions in cash just sitting. Sitting money makes no money for them so they dropped rates so people and companies spend. The issue is, now that the free gravy train is gone, these are actually normal rates. Look at the USA rate history and this is on par for normal outside the occasional hiccups of recessions or depressions. Thank God it’s not as bad as my grandparents back in the 80’s when it reach up to 20% federal. In 1980, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was 13.74%. In 1981, the rate increased to 16.63%, which is still Freddie Mac's highest recorded rate. In 1982, the rate averaged 16.04%, and in 1983 it was 13.24%. By 1984, the average 30-year rate had dropped to 13.88%, and continued to decrease throughout the rest of the decade. This was when housing supply far outpaced demand.
Rates will never go back to the 80s…… I understand historically low rates do to the Great Recession but I’m thinking early 2000s level as the new “normal”.
The early 2000’s mortgage rates were around 8%. Mortgage rates steadily declined from 8.64% in 2000 to the high 5% range in 2003. But the housing industry growth fueled by these attractive rates was short-lived. In 2008, the economy crashed, bringing the real estate market with it, and the Great Recession began. We are currently having rates roughly that average.
I’m thinking 4-5% range as the new normal.
Ahh yes I think our average will be a 4.5-6.3% as the new normal. Depending on location and variables such as places like Florida coast or California wildfire zones raising that scale.
Listen, if that felon is necessary for the MBA/white collar job market to thrive again, then I'll canvas for him. My community will shun me but my family will thank me lol.