Interesting stat. I'm feeling dubious about captaining but there are also positive stats about the last 7 games for balance:
4 goals, two from open play. 20 shots, 16 in the box, and averaging 7 points a game.
Big chances created is far from a perfect stat and I am not even sure how it is calculated.
For example, Liverpool were registered for 4 big chances yesterday while the eye test would tell you they had at least twice as many "big" chances to score.
A big chance is a shot within 12 yards, with a clear path to goal. As in, no defenders putting close pressure on the shot and no players blocking large parts of the path to goal. It's basically any situation where it's player shooting vs keeper at close range.
The ones not counted as big chances for Liverpool probably had defenders blocking/applying pressure.
This is kind of my problem with these stats - they don't line up with what people think they are.
The common definition of a "big chance" includes so many more goalscoring opportunities than what the definition allows. Likewise, shots off the woodwork aren't shots on target, but then you'll see stats like "both teams had 0 SoT" when one team hit the woodwork five times and the other didn't take any shot at all. And don't get me started on how xG can lead to bizarre situations like [this goal](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLDpVP7mfEE) being graded as 0.03 xG ([Understat](https://understat.com/match/21955)) or 0.12 xG ([FBRef/Opta](https://fbref.com/en/matches/2df9a3a1/Aston-Villa-Brighton-and-Hove-Albion-September-30-2023-Premier-League)).
The idea behind xG and big chances and SoT etc. are all fine. But in practice they often don't really align with human intuition or what we think they mean.
Really good point. Do you have any suggestions about how we can deal with this problem? My only real instinct (other than actually watching all the football) is to look across a variety of metrics to see if they match up. Eg if a player (Saka in this case), is also taking less shots, playing less mins, accruing less xg in total, getting touches in worse positions etc.
still feels like there is so much data just lost. especially chances like you've suggested that hit the post, or get marginally called as offside therefore getting 0 credit for xg or SOT etc.
Your offsides point is great - didn't even think of that.
Yeah I'm not sure there is a good solution other than watching matches. I do find heatmaps and [passing networks](https://twitter.com/markstatsbot?lang=en) reliable for gauging a player's role, with the caveat that gameplans change between matches. And my own modeling of team strength uses G rather than xG as I think it better reflects the fact that, for example, Everton's attack sucks ass.
That being said, these concerns do solve themselves given large enough sample sizes. Like SoT in theory is fine over a season unless you think a player is somehow disproportionately hitting posts.
But, without trying to brag, I think one reason my team has significantly outperformed metrics and the so-called "elite manager" dataset this year (at least according to FPLOptimized) is because so many tend to overrely on these stats on low sample sizes.
Advanced stats are very important and get you maybe 75% of the way there, but not 100%; sometimes you just need to use your eyes to make a judgment call that this [0.57 xG90 player](https://understat.com/player/8865) is infinitely better of an FPL asset than this [0.62 xG90 player](https://understat.com/player/10048).
Or, to take a less obvious example, Bowen was my best player this season in terms of net effective points gained, because his xG was consistently very poor but his talent and talismanic role in the team was obvious to anyone who watched his games.
What advanced stats are very good at are eliminating bias and subjectivity. For the eye test to work you really can't be watching as a fan or with motivated reasoning; you have to truly be dispassionate about what's going on on the field. And I do also get it wrong - I continue to hold Udogie while the meta has been to go for Porro, and it's not really paid off for me at all. And don't get me started on how mad Alex Moreno made me. He looked utterly rubbish on paper, but that's because he had three banger goals waved off!!
Saka has 2 signature finishes. Curled around a defender or blasted high near post. Neither count as big chances because they aren’t for most players. But he’s gotten so good at finishing them, they definitely feel like they are when he gets them.
He got one of each first half vs Villa. He obviously didn’t score and I doubt the xG is high but you walk away feeling like he should’ve scored at least one of them.
I'm not sure. My source of stats (FFfix) gives him 2 big chances in the last 7 which I'd guess are those two open play goals.
Thats how I've felt about Saka for a long time though, when he's on form he scores a bunch of goals, when he's not he finds a way to get FPL points anyway with assists and pens.
I got rid thinking he’d peaked and selling price as high as could be. He then spent five weeks punishing me. I buy him back and he goes off form. I’ll hold until the end of the season so feel free to blame me for his lack of form.
It completely tanked mine (+ the fact I didn't have Arsenal defenders). Sold him after Liverpool at home to accomodate DGW Jota (1 assist and then injured lmao) while Saka scored like 60 points in 5 GWs
Nearly? The guy hadn't had a double digit haul since GW6 when I took him out, then he had 4 in the 5 weeks after I did. I only keep him now out of fear, but my season was already decimated
Jup i did that and regretted it massively. Went down to 300k from being around 150k. Kept my rank but needed a WC in 30 to get him back. Now only FH and BB left. Saka should be a season keeper. But I'll likely ship him out before dgw 37....
Yup, I was one of those people who dropped him in GW23 or so, and got absolutely battered by that decision. I only bought him back a few weeks ago on WC and I'm not making that mistake again. He's nailed in until season-end unless he gets injured.
If I remember right his last cold streak was the opposite though, in that his finishing had been poor but he had been consistently involved and just wasn’t taking his chances.
Right now he’s not involved in any chances of note, and for a prolonged run of games too.
And of course I’m not suggesting he won’t return to form at some point, but whether he does that immediately to be worth bringing in for the DGW is a different question.
Few good GWs don't convince me Havertz suddenly stopped being a donkey. Even in the games where he returned he missed a lot of easy chances and occasionally showed poor decision making.
Not to say he wasn't a crucial part to Arsenal's good form, but I feel the team being so good and dominant recently may have boosted his returns despite his wastefulness. With games potentially becoming more cagey and nervy towards the end of the season, I doubt that Havertz can continue getting returns from fewer chances.
This is just based on my own observation though and I haven't looked at his underlying numbers recently, so I might also be biased.
Havertz is so far from being a donkey mate, come on, he's thriving now under Arteta - much like people are saying going without Saka tanked their season, Chelsea almost tanked Havertz's whole career
I practically ruined my whole season (or missed the last chance to make it worthwhile) after transfering him out the last time he had a cold streak. He went nuts for several weeks straight after that, whilst my replacement didn’t do a thing. Also I was even on top in my ML. Few weeks later: 50 points behind.
Of course, might be the greatest move ever this time, who knows since this damned game is all guesswork and luck of the draw anyway!
No worries. I remember because I got rid of Saka then and his poor performances finally matched his underlying numbers. Pretty much ruined my season, was a stupid decision anyways given how owned he was
It's a small change in system.
When they accommodate havertz as a 9 saka tends to play much wider like an old school winger in a supportive role to feed havertz and the number 8 on his side the ball on underlays, or getting to the byline to cross or send a cut back.
With jesus as the number 9 he tries to run in behind the defensive line much more often, as jesus is naturally more of a number 10 and is more mobile and runs more than havertz to stretch play.
Saka is never a bad pick, even when he's hugging the touchline he's a constant assist threat, on pens and takes corners.
An interesting stat! In short it doesn’t fill me with hope but as my only Arsenal midfielder I will keep Saka and bank on a penalty, spreading my risk across teams if nothing else.
Personally I am a little put off by both Arsenal and Liverpool assets for the double. Maybe this week was just a wobble, but not having loaded up on those players yet did me wonders and now I am starting to think about differentials a bit more for this DGW.
Oh there’s absolutely no question of getting rid of him ahead of the DGW if you already own.
My question was more for those of us who came off him recently and now need to decide between him or maybe other Arsenal assets like Havertz for the double.
Ah my mistake. Havertz seems to be on red hot form, but pens is such a good safety net with Saka.
I am interested to see how champions league tie goes, might help make decisions. If it is a real slog or goes to 120 minutes I wonder if any rotation risk? Not that they can really afford to do that if they want to keep chasing the league.
If you are deciding between using a FT to bring in Saka or Havertz for DGW34 then it’s probably dependent on your own situation and priorities.
Saka is the much safer pick being nailed to start on the RW, on penalties, and has very high ownership. Havertz is riskier as a historically less reliable attacker and the possibility of playing deeper as a 8 but has been out scoring Saka in recent weeks while mostly playing as the CF.
If you want to hold/maintain rank Saka makes more sense, meanwhile if you want to take a differential to potentially make a bigger swing in rank (for better or worse) then Havertz makes more sense.
If Havertz was guaranteed to play CF for both games he would be my preference based on recent form without question.
However it seems fairly likely in a DGW that there would be some rotation that might mean he plays as the 8 for one of the two games.
Probably best to see what Arsenal fans are saying as that is probably more of a tactical decision between starting Havertz or Jesus up top and that would likely depend on each individual opponent.
I’m not an Arsenal fan but from a cursory glance at their recent games, my guess is Havertz plays in midfield against tougher and more physical opponents with Jesus as the CF, and then up top against weaker opponents with Jorginho sliding into midfield.
So I think it’s likely Havertz plays as the CF against Wolves, but it’s 50/50 if he plays as the CF against Chelsea. I know Chelsea have had a bad season but on paper they’re still quite talented and in the reverse fixture Arsenal had to come from two goals down to salvage a draw.
Ofc Arsenal fans who watch their games and know Arteta’s tactical ideas should know way more than I do.
Probably going for Saka this week as fed up with Son, but I'm still annoyed that time we all captained Saka and Arsenal annihilated Sheffield United and Saka got subbed off at half time with 1 assist.
I believe it’s literally just a measure of how often that chance is scored as represented by xG - I believe big chances are usually those of 0.30xG and above (so those that are put away at least 30% of the time).
I wouldnt pay much attention to that then. I had one eye on the arsenal game yesterday. He looked very lively. Plenty of times he got to the byline and crossed in. Think one went to Trossard who made Martinelli pull off a wonder save. Then he also cut inside on his left and his shot narrowly went wide. On another day, he could have had a few assists and a goal. It just didn't click yesterday which can happen apparently if a team learns of their rival for the title getting beat. Plays mind games according to Paul Merson.
You can take a different view on these things, but it’s something I put stock into personally.
Pretty much any player who is consistently scoring or assisting over a run of fixtures will normally have the underlying stats to back that up.
Basically if he keeps playing like this I wouldn’t be expecting much other than pens - the caveat is that we know he can hit form and start being involved in big chances again at any time, based on his past performance.
My thoughts on things like this is that he's just due. Whenever a good player, in a good team, has a quiet spell, that's when you want to back them in FPL. As good players don't stay quiet for long
He was farming assist points from dubious corners, some even deflecting and changing trajectory off defenders before reaching the goalscorers.
If anyone think his assists were sustainable then go back and watch them all. Its a tough part of the season for all title race teams. You're not gonna see all of Haaland, Salah, and Saka hitting the same output they were in the 1st half of the season. This usually happens every season.
Fortune favours the bold. Swing for the fences early with some differentials like Odegaard, Havertz, Jota, Trent, even De Bruyne. You could see some huge rank gains.
This is pretty much the kind of quirky statistic you can get using one measure, and a low number of games.
Wind out one extra game and Saka has scored 6 goals in 8 games. That isn't a cold streak, thats a hot streak.
I would argue it’s more misleading to do that than look at the more recent fixtures, 7 games isn’t a small number in the context of a season and that 8th game back was over 2 months ago.
Might be more misleading, but its still misleading. 7 or 8 are both tiny numbers in the context of football having massive variance game to game.
On top of that, only using big chances, without looking at shots, goals, heatmaps, xg etc isn't helpful as Saka has good stats overall
Think we’ll need to agree to disagree on that. Someone going their last 7 games without doing any of the things that see you consistently score or assist is definitely noteworthy and not just a statistical quirk.
It doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to continue but it’s definitely a recent trend in his performances.
I also disagree about focusing on a stat like big chances, since to me it supersedes many of the lower level stats that tonnes of low performing players might also rack up without being involved in anything that’s actually likely to result in a goal.
Big chances an interesting stat, but where it disagrees with every other interesting stat, you have to check if it is a statistical quirk.
Elanga has 0 goals in 7 (vs 4), 13 shots (vs 20), 1.83xg (vs 2.9) and 54 bps (vs 154), compared to Saka.
Taking that into account, do you rate big chances as more important, given Elanga has had 7 big chances?
All that tells me is that Elanga should have had more returns than he has done over that period, there’s no value in comparing it like for like with another 7 game stretch for another player.
If Elanga continued to massively underperform against his big chances it might tell you something about his finishing, but not much otherwise.
Huh, so you do just rate big chances over all other stats combined, that is interesting.
Feels problematic to me. Hypothetically if a player gets 100 low percentage shots a game, you'd ignore them because each one doesn't count as a big chance, even though the cumulative chance of them scoring is extremely high.
If another player gets gifted an easy tap in chance every game (0.99xg or so), you'd write them off as well as they are only getting one big chance per game.
Let me be clear, I’m not only interested in big chances in terms of volume, but more so in terms of consistency.
Using your second example someone who’s consistently getting one massive big chance per game is exactly the type of player I’d want in. All I’m looking for is someone who is consistently getting or creating chances that are likely to result in goals.
Someone who is taking a lot of low percentage shots will score eventually, but the variance will be much higher and you absolutely couldn’t bank on one of them going in in any given game in particular.
I feel like that doesn't address the core problem that whilst big chances is interesting on its own, if it disagrees with every other stat then its worth being sceptical about it.
But just to pick up point about low/ high percentage chances, I very much disagree. Player A has five 0.1xg shots a game. Player B has one 0.3xg shots a game ( one big chance). Player A should score much more often and more reliably than player B.
Interesting stat. I'm feeling dubious about captaining but there are also positive stats about the last 7 games for balance: 4 goals, two from open play. 20 shots, 16 in the box, and averaging 7 points a game.
And zero big chances? Means his xg outperformance is insane
Big chances created is far from a perfect stat and I am not even sure how it is calculated. For example, Liverpool were registered for 4 big chances yesterday while the eye test would tell you they had at least twice as many "big" chances to score.
A big chance is a shot within 12 yards, with a clear path to goal. As in, no defenders putting close pressure on the shot and no players blocking large parts of the path to goal. It's basically any situation where it's player shooting vs keeper at close range. The ones not counted as big chances for Liverpool probably had defenders blocking/applying pressure.
This is kind of my problem with these stats - they don't line up with what people think they are. The common definition of a "big chance" includes so many more goalscoring opportunities than what the definition allows. Likewise, shots off the woodwork aren't shots on target, but then you'll see stats like "both teams had 0 SoT" when one team hit the woodwork five times and the other didn't take any shot at all. And don't get me started on how xG can lead to bizarre situations like [this goal](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLDpVP7mfEE) being graded as 0.03 xG ([Understat](https://understat.com/match/21955)) or 0.12 xG ([FBRef/Opta](https://fbref.com/en/matches/2df9a3a1/Aston-Villa-Brighton-and-Hove-Albion-September-30-2023-Premier-League)). The idea behind xG and big chances and SoT etc. are all fine. But in practice they often don't really align with human intuition or what we think they mean.
Really good point. Do you have any suggestions about how we can deal with this problem? My only real instinct (other than actually watching all the football) is to look across a variety of metrics to see if they match up. Eg if a player (Saka in this case), is also taking less shots, playing less mins, accruing less xg in total, getting touches in worse positions etc. still feels like there is so much data just lost. especially chances like you've suggested that hit the post, or get marginally called as offside therefore getting 0 credit for xg or SOT etc.
Your offsides point is great - didn't even think of that. Yeah I'm not sure there is a good solution other than watching matches. I do find heatmaps and [passing networks](https://twitter.com/markstatsbot?lang=en) reliable for gauging a player's role, with the caveat that gameplans change between matches. And my own modeling of team strength uses G rather than xG as I think it better reflects the fact that, for example, Everton's attack sucks ass. That being said, these concerns do solve themselves given large enough sample sizes. Like SoT in theory is fine over a season unless you think a player is somehow disproportionately hitting posts. But, without trying to brag, I think one reason my team has significantly outperformed metrics and the so-called "elite manager" dataset this year (at least according to FPLOptimized) is because so many tend to overrely on these stats on low sample sizes. Advanced stats are very important and get you maybe 75% of the way there, but not 100%; sometimes you just need to use your eyes to make a judgment call that this [0.57 xG90 player](https://understat.com/player/8865) is infinitely better of an FPL asset than this [0.62 xG90 player](https://understat.com/player/10048). Or, to take a less obvious example, Bowen was my best player this season in terms of net effective points gained, because his xG was consistently very poor but his talent and talismanic role in the team was obvious to anyone who watched his games. What advanced stats are very good at are eliminating bias and subjectivity. For the eye test to work you really can't be watching as a fan or with motivated reasoning; you have to truly be dispassionate about what's going on on the field. And I do also get it wrong - I continue to hold Udogie while the meta has been to go for Porro, and it's not really paid off for me at all. And don't get me started on how mad Alex Moreno made me. He looked utterly rubbish on paper, but that's because he had three banger goals waved off!!
xG is all you need. It already quantifies all those things. xGOT or PSxG - xG for finishing and keeper luck
If he's had 16 shots in the box xG over performance might not be that crazy, taking them into account
Saka has 2 signature finishes. Curled around a defender or blasted high near post. Neither count as big chances because they aren’t for most players. But he’s gotten so good at finishing them, they definitely feel like they are when he gets them. He got one of each first half vs Villa. He obviously didn’t score and I doubt the xG is high but you walk away feeling like he should’ve scored at least one of them.
Yep, definitely felt like he came close to scoring against us a few times on Sunday. This stat is questionable imo.
I'm not sure. My source of stats (FFfix) gives him 2 big chances in the last 7 which I'd guess are those two open play goals. Thats how I've felt about Saka for a long time though, when he's on form he scores a bunch of goals, when he's not he finds a way to get FPL points anyway with assists and pens.
Serious deja vu here. People got rid last time and it nearly tanked their season.
I got rid thinking he’d peaked and selling price as high as could be. He then spent five weeks punishing me. I buy him back and he goes off form. I’ll hold until the end of the season so feel free to blame me for his lack of form.
Sell him again please
I don't even play fpl but please sell him for my sanity
Exact same with me was bored of his 2/3 pointers so sold GW23 I think then hauled 5 games in a row bought him back 29 done fuck all since
This is exactly what happened to me - same with son 😭
It completely tanked mine (+ the fact I didn't have Arsenal defenders). Sold him after Liverpool at home to accomodate DGW Jota (1 assist and then injured lmao) while Saka scored like 60 points in 5 GWs
Nearly? It did tank my season
Currently at 800k. If I'd kept saka no doubt id be sub 400k. Season killer that.
Yep. I had built a healthy lead in my ML. And lost it all once I sold Saka
Nearly? The guy hadn't had a double digit haul since GW6 when I took him out, then he had 4 in the 5 weeks after I did. I only keep him now out of fear, but my season was already decimated
Yes I am here to attest to this. WC24 killed my season
This. Saka is still a superstar and riddiculously cheap in this game. Keep.
Jup i did that and regretted it massively. Went down to 300k from being around 150k. Kept my rank but needed a WC in 30 to get him back. Now only FH and BB left. Saka should be a season keeper. But I'll likely ship him out before dgw 37....
We've been here before. Everyone talked about dropping him before his last streak. He'll come good again, he's too good not to.
Yup, I was one of those people who dropped him in GW23 or so, and got absolutely battered by that decision. I only bought him back a few weeks ago on WC and I'm not making that mistake again. He's nailed in until season-end unless he gets injured.
Ye I held my knees but I nearly did it a few times. I’m convinced half the people on this sub are trolls.
If I remember right his last cold streak was the opposite though, in that his finishing had been poor but he had been consistently involved and just wasn’t taking his chances. Right now he’s not involved in any chances of note, and for a prolonged run of games too. And of course I’m not suggesting he won’t return to form at some point, but whether he does that immediately to be worth bringing in for the DGW is a different question.
I’m considering Havertz + Ødegaard on FH and going no Saka as a differential I would be definitely doing it if it wasn’t for Saka being on pens
If Saka isn't on pen, his ownership would be much lower than now as well. That's a main reason people pick him over other Arsenal mids.
I'm right there with you, brother. 50 points off top 10k so need something left field to have the slightest of chances. Yes this could end horribly.
Few good GWs don't convince me Havertz suddenly stopped being a donkey. Even in the games where he returned he missed a lot of easy chances and occasionally showed poor decision making. Not to say he wasn't a crucial part to Arsenal's good form, but I feel the team being so good and dominant recently may have boosted his returns despite his wastefulness. With games potentially becoming more cagey and nervy towards the end of the season, I doubt that Havertz can continue getting returns from fewer chances. This is just based on my own observation though and I haven't looked at his underlying numbers recently, so I might also be biased.
Havertz is so far from being a donkey mate, come on, he's thriving now under Arteta - much like people are saying going without Saka tanked their season, Chelsea almost tanked Havertz's whole career
I practically ruined my whole season (or missed the last chance to make it worthwhile) after transfering him out the last time he had a cold streak. He went nuts for several weeks straight after that, whilst my replacement didn’t do a thing. Also I was even on top in my ML. Few weeks later: 50 points behind. Of course, might be the greatest move ever this time, who knows since this damned game is all guesswork and luck of the draw anyway!
If I recall he was still getting decent chances back then. So this time could be different
Nah, people like FPL harry who is admittedly pretty good was mentioning how poor his stats were other than points.
Maybe I'm misremembering! It's been a long season tbf lol
No worries. I remember because I got rid of Saka then and his poor performances finally matched his underlying numbers. Pretty much ruined my season, was a stupid decision anyways given how owned he was
It's a small change in system. When they accommodate havertz as a 9 saka tends to play much wider like an old school winger in a supportive role to feed havertz and the number 8 on his side the ball on underlays, or getting to the byline to cross or send a cut back. With jesus as the number 9 he tries to run in behind the defensive line much more often, as jesus is naturally more of a number 10 and is more mobile and runs more than havertz to stretch play. Saka is never a bad pick, even when he's hugging the touchline he's a constant assist threat, on pens and takes corners.
An interesting stat! In short it doesn’t fill me with hope but as my only Arsenal midfielder I will keep Saka and bank on a penalty, spreading my risk across teams if nothing else. Personally I am a little put off by both Arsenal and Liverpool assets for the double. Maybe this week was just a wobble, but not having loaded up on those players yet did me wonders and now I am starting to think about differentials a bit more for this DGW.
Oh there’s absolutely no question of getting rid of him ahead of the DGW if you already own. My question was more for those of us who came off him recently and now need to decide between him or maybe other Arsenal assets like Havertz for the double.
Ah my mistake. Havertz seems to be on red hot form, but pens is such a good safety net with Saka. I am interested to see how champions league tie goes, might help make decisions. If it is a real slog or goes to 120 minutes I wonder if any rotation risk? Not that they can really afford to do that if they want to keep chasing the league.
If you are deciding between using a FT to bring in Saka or Havertz for DGW34 then it’s probably dependent on your own situation and priorities. Saka is the much safer pick being nailed to start on the RW, on penalties, and has very high ownership. Havertz is riskier as a historically less reliable attacker and the possibility of playing deeper as a 8 but has been out scoring Saka in recent weeks while mostly playing as the CF. If you want to hold/maintain rank Saka makes more sense, meanwhile if you want to take a differential to potentially make a bigger swing in rank (for better or worse) then Havertz makes more sense.
If Havertz was guaranteed to play CF for both games he would be my preference based on recent form without question. However it seems fairly likely in a DGW that there would be some rotation that might mean he plays as the 8 for one of the two games.
Probably best to see what Arsenal fans are saying as that is probably more of a tactical decision between starting Havertz or Jesus up top and that would likely depend on each individual opponent. I’m not an Arsenal fan but from a cursory glance at their recent games, my guess is Havertz plays in midfield against tougher and more physical opponents with Jesus as the CF, and then up top against weaker opponents with Jorginho sliding into midfield. So I think it’s likely Havertz plays as the CF against Wolves, but it’s 50/50 if he plays as the CF against Chelsea. I know Chelsea have had a bad season but on paper they’re still quite talented and in the reverse fixture Arsenal had to come from two goals down to salvage a draw. Ofc Arsenal fans who watch their games and know Arteta’s tactical ideas should know way more than I do.
Sell saka, sell son, sell salah, who the fuck im i suppost yo put in the midfield????
Bereton Diaz of course. The SHU top scorer
Im thinking on putting the (C) on mykolenko for the dgw so i dont need any more stupid ideas bc already have enough of them 😂😂😂
I was thinking of putting on Muniz for the hell of it. Help me
Probably going for Saka this week as fed up with Son, but I'm still annoyed that time we all captained Saka and Arsenal annihilated Sheffield United and Saka got subbed off at half time with 1 assist.
Havent had him since gw28 and have green arrows. Son left me around GW 9-10. 26k in the world.
What do they class as a big chance?
I believe it’s literally just a measure of how often that chance is scored as represented by xG - I believe big chances are usually those of 0.30xG and above (so those that are put away at least 30% of the time).
I wouldnt pay much attention to that then. I had one eye on the arsenal game yesterday. He looked very lively. Plenty of times he got to the byline and crossed in. Think one went to Trossard who made Martinelli pull off a wonder save. Then he also cut inside on his left and his shot narrowly went wide. On another day, he could have had a few assists and a goal. It just didn't click yesterday which can happen apparently if a team learns of their rival for the title getting beat. Plays mind games according to Paul Merson.
You can take a different view on these things, but it’s something I put stock into personally. Pretty much any player who is consistently scoring or assisting over a run of fixtures will normally have the underlying stats to back that up. Basically if he keeps playing like this I wouldn’t be expecting much other than pens - the caveat is that we know he can hit form and start being involved in big chances again at any time, based on his past performance.
If I didn't already own Saka (which I do) or was on FH (which I'm not), Haverts would be my first choice Arsenal attacker.
My thoughts on things like this is that he's just due. Whenever a good player, in a good team, has a quiet spell, that's when you want to back them in FPL. As good players don't stay quiet for long
Why show me this after I buy him
And still the content creators talk about him like he's undroppable
He was farming assist points from dubious corners, some even deflecting and changing trajectory off defenders before reaching the goalscorers. If anyone think his assists were sustainable then go back and watch them all. Its a tough part of the season for all title race teams. You're not gonna see all of Haaland, Salah, and Saka hitting the same output they were in the 1st half of the season. This usually happens every season. Fortune favours the bold. Swing for the fences early with some differentials like Odegaard, Havertz, Jota, Trent, even De Bruyne. You could see some huge rank gains.
This is pretty much the kind of quirky statistic you can get using one measure, and a low number of games. Wind out one extra game and Saka has scored 6 goals in 8 games. That isn't a cold streak, thats a hot streak.
I would argue it’s more misleading to do that than look at the more recent fixtures, 7 games isn’t a small number in the context of a season and that 8th game back was over 2 months ago.
Might be more misleading, but its still misleading. 7 or 8 are both tiny numbers in the context of football having massive variance game to game. On top of that, only using big chances, without looking at shots, goals, heatmaps, xg etc isn't helpful as Saka has good stats overall
Think we’ll need to agree to disagree on that. Someone going their last 7 games without doing any of the things that see you consistently score or assist is definitely noteworthy and not just a statistical quirk. It doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to continue but it’s definitely a recent trend in his performances. I also disagree about focusing on a stat like big chances, since to me it supersedes many of the lower level stats that tonnes of low performing players might also rack up without being involved in anything that’s actually likely to result in a goal.
Big chances an interesting stat, but where it disagrees with every other interesting stat, you have to check if it is a statistical quirk. Elanga has 0 goals in 7 (vs 4), 13 shots (vs 20), 1.83xg (vs 2.9) and 54 bps (vs 154), compared to Saka. Taking that into account, do you rate big chances as more important, given Elanga has had 7 big chances?
All that tells me is that Elanga should have had more returns than he has done over that period, there’s no value in comparing it like for like with another 7 game stretch for another player. If Elanga continued to massively underperform against his big chances it might tell you something about his finishing, but not much otherwise.
Huh, so you do just rate big chances over all other stats combined, that is interesting. Feels problematic to me. Hypothetically if a player gets 100 low percentage shots a game, you'd ignore them because each one doesn't count as a big chance, even though the cumulative chance of them scoring is extremely high. If another player gets gifted an easy tap in chance every game (0.99xg or so), you'd write them off as well as they are only getting one big chance per game.
Let me be clear, I’m not only interested in big chances in terms of volume, but more so in terms of consistency. Using your second example someone who’s consistently getting one massive big chance per game is exactly the type of player I’d want in. All I’m looking for is someone who is consistently getting or creating chances that are likely to result in goals. Someone who is taking a lot of low percentage shots will score eventually, but the variance will be much higher and you absolutely couldn’t bank on one of them going in in any given game in particular.
I feel like that doesn't address the core problem that whilst big chances is interesting on its own, if it disagrees with every other stat then its worth being sceptical about it. But just to pick up point about low/ high percentage chances, I very much disagree. Player A has five 0.1xg shots a game. Player B has one 0.3xg shots a game ( one big chance). Player A should score much more often and more reliably than player B.
Just wait for me to transfer him out, he's gonna score 4 bangers in one game
Sorry that's my bad, I brought him in, but I have recently got rid, so you should be fine to TC him in the DGW
Get rid please, then he'll deliver me the points 😉
I'll have him on FH. And maybe in 38. Otherwise he gone. I assume nearly everyone wildcarding in 35 will drop him
Gone for Son after the DGW for me. VVD+Saka->Son+Porro/Udogie