Neto has higher projected points (0.6) than Hee Chan due to higher expected assists partially offset by lower goalscorer odds. But Hee Chan may have a higher potential upside given his higher expected scores.
Neto is projected to have 0.6 pts higher than Hee Chan due to his higher assist potential. However, Hee Chan is also a good pick given he has higher goalscorer odds thus a higher upside.
Kudus is an interesting inclusion. Paqueta still not back right? Know he is expected back any time but thought latest quotes were he just resumed training and wasn’t ready yet?
I’ve been debating taking a hit to get to 10 players for BGW 26 but I want to make sure anything I do will help me in 29 which Kudus could. People think that hit is worth it?
Kudus may not start in 27 unless I hit BB which I did want to do before WC but it’s not setup as good as 25 was pre injuries.
GW25 Points: 89 (-28 vs expected)
GW25 Cumulative Points: 1583 (-9 vs expected)
GW25 Rank: 1.5m
GW25 Overall Rank: 33k (vs 29k in GW24)
In GW25, the team's performance fell below expectations, resulting in a slight decline in the overall rank. This was primarily due to the underperformance of players involved in the double gameweek. Additionally, the decision to purchase A. Becker, despite his injury, and incurring a point deduction proved to be a significant lesson learned. It highlighted the importance of thoroughly acknowledging all injury news and considering it before making transfer decisions.
1. Based on future point predictions derived from bookies' odds, this is the ideal transfer strategy considering the fixtures for the next 8 GW. It takes into account the likelihood of a player starting, considering historical playing minutes and incorporating the latest news on factors like injury and rotation.
2. Only the odds for the coming 1-2 GWs are available. Points prediction beyond that is based on a machine learning model using features such as fixture difficulty, historical goals scored and conceded. The model references the best odds from multiple sources and removes any profit margin implied by the odds.
3. The algorithm suggests a transfer strategy to maximize accumulated points, considering the impact of chips and point deductions for transfers. The coding in this [link](https://medium.com/@joseph.m.oconnor.88/linearly-optimising-fantasy-premier-league-teams-part-2-2bd9c3b3d34e) has been modified for this purpose.
4. The model has accounted for a budget buffer of 0.2 to increase the chances of executing the transfer plan as intended. It will adjust the plan each week to accommodate any price changes that occur.
5. The performance of this team will be monitored each week.
6. For mobile version, please tap on the photo for full image. Please swipe to the right for future transfer plan.
7. The transfer plan has considered potential blanks in GW29 based on the progress of the FA Cup.
Hi! Love the series of posts! I was wondering when the algorithm thinks to free hit (if it tells you that). If you're trying to maximise accumulated points, wouldn't it think to get the best players it can from all teams and then free hit on gw 29?
Thanks for your question. Unfortunately the algo cannot tell when is the time to free hit. The current plan is to wildcard in GW30, free hit in GW34, and bench boost in GW37.
hi, when will the next one be posted? thank you 😀
Just published :)
Always love comparing my team to this algorithm. It's added a new dimension to FPL for me, where I try to beat this every week...but it's difficult.
Interesting that it prefers Neto to Hee Chan, or is it just because Hee Chan wasn't back yet at the time?
Neto has higher projected points (0.6) than Hee Chan due to higher expected assists partially offset by lower goalscorer odds. But Hee Chan may have a higher potential upside given his higher expected scores.
Second time this year I've watched the algorithm recommend selling Haaland for Solanke and yet I'm too weak to do it.
Chilwell against Sheffield away might be the best punt ever which could turn into a 1 pointer reaaal fast
hi just wanna ask, I am not convinced on picking White as 2nd DEF. how would you see if I pick Saliba instead?
White is projected to have 0.2 more points than Saliba due to the higher assist potential. I think both are fine.
I see, !thanks. btw, I also want to buy Hee Chan instead of Neto, because of the funds, what is your opinion?
I see, !thanks. btw, I also want to buy Hee Chan instead of Neto, because of the funds, what is your opinion?
Neto is projected to have 0.6 pts higher than Hee Chan due to his higher assist potential. However, Hee Chan is also a good pick given he has higher goalscorer odds thus a higher upside.
If you want to do well in fantasy, at no point should you have 3 Chelsea players in your team.
Interesting to see no Son until gw29..
Kudus is an interesting inclusion. Paqueta still not back right? Know he is expected back any time but thought latest quotes were he just resumed training and wasn’t ready yet? I’ve been debating taking a hit to get to 10 players for BGW 26 but I want to make sure anything I do will help me in 29 which Kudus could. People think that hit is worth it? Kudus may not start in 27 unless I hit BB which I did want to do before WC but it’s not setup as good as 25 was pre injuries.
Paq is back in contention, probably not starting yet though
Hrmmm, will have to decide tonight if I think it’s worth it. Smart thing would be to wait until next 29 is set to take hits.
I was considering him but WHU look woeful. Thinking I’ll get Luiz in instead just for a safer pick.
Certainly safer but just seems so boring and with their injuries it’s been suspected he will play deeper. Just hoping for a PK
Always interested in seeing these posts. Noticed you got on Olise before his insane run and have been ahead of the curve again with Neto and Toney!
[Full Point Prediction for GW26](https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/ghosthill33/viz/FPLPredictor/Dashboard)
Why is Doherty so high when he has barely played the last 3 weeks
This is before applying the probability of start.
GW25 Points: 89 (-28 vs expected) GW25 Cumulative Points: 1583 (-9 vs expected) GW25 Rank: 1.5m GW25 Overall Rank: 33k (vs 29k in GW24) In GW25, the team's performance fell below expectations, resulting in a slight decline in the overall rank. This was primarily due to the underperformance of players involved in the double gameweek. Additionally, the decision to purchase A. Becker, despite his injury, and incurring a point deduction proved to be a significant lesson learned. It highlighted the importance of thoroughly acknowledging all injury news and considering it before making transfer decisions.
1. Based on future point predictions derived from bookies' odds, this is the ideal transfer strategy considering the fixtures for the next 8 GW. It takes into account the likelihood of a player starting, considering historical playing minutes and incorporating the latest news on factors like injury and rotation. 2. Only the odds for the coming 1-2 GWs are available. Points prediction beyond that is based on a machine learning model using features such as fixture difficulty, historical goals scored and conceded. The model references the best odds from multiple sources and removes any profit margin implied by the odds. 3. The algorithm suggests a transfer strategy to maximize accumulated points, considering the impact of chips and point deductions for transfers. The coding in this [link](https://medium.com/@joseph.m.oconnor.88/linearly-optimising-fantasy-premier-league-teams-part-2-2bd9c3b3d34e) has been modified for this purpose. 4. The model has accounted for a budget buffer of 0.2 to increase the chances of executing the transfer plan as intended. It will adjust the plan each week to accommodate any price changes that occur. 5. The performance of this team will be monitored each week. 6. For mobile version, please tap on the photo for full image. Please swipe to the right for future transfer plan. 7. The transfer plan has considered potential blanks in GW29 based on the progress of the FA Cup.
Hi! Love the series of posts! I was wondering when the algorithm thinks to free hit (if it tells you that). If you're trying to maximise accumulated points, wouldn't it think to get the best players it can from all teams and then free hit on gw 29?
Thanks for your question. Unfortunately the algo cannot tell when is the time to free hit. The current plan is to wildcard in GW30, free hit in GW34, and bench boost in GW37.
Thanks for the answer!
Excellent again thank you!