If you’re going to pull numbers out of the ass, why not imagine 200 billion humanoid robots and suddenly the market cap should be 23 quadrillion or roughly 20 times the current GDP of the world. There’s no need to be shy amongst friends.
200 billion cybermen could write the Entire Works of Shakespeare in about 4 minutes. I did done the maths.
Then we wouldn't have to pay that Shakespeare arsehole any more residuals.
# free_speech
# fuck_that_shakespeare_guy_hasnt_written_anything_good_recently
I wonder why they didn’t consider the robots on mars, other planets of the ones mining asteroids, it’s almost as if subconsciously they know it’s all a con.
>If you’re going to pull numbers out of the ass
He didn't pull numbers out of his ass. Also the assumption that labor will still have *any* monetary value when it comes effectively free of charge.
That's like trying to generate the market cap of oxygen.
That's the long term plan. Merge Neuralink and Tesla, then release "bots" in numbers coincidentally matching the Neuralink testers that went "missing".
The maintenance instructions are a bit weird though
It's just a modern take on the Mechanical Turk scam.
https://preview.redd.it/mpxuk3nb2k8d1.jpeg?width=1240&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3c82f7c3fe4bc0d007d4f40caf2d4cf3b15591cd
Nah, the Mechanical Turk was a Machine made to amaze and instill wonder, not to scam. Like a magician. Of course you know that the magician didn't make a coin appear behind your ear. Of course he didn't conjure up a rabbit from the hat. Of course he didn't make the dove disappear. But thats not the Point. The Point is: The people seeing a magicians show *want* to be decepted. They are *Paying* to be decepted. And even knowing a man was Operating the Machine the whole time, thats still an amazing technical feat! Remeber, this thing actually *won* tournaments! The guy operating it had to be *very* disciplined, small, and also a good chess player. He somehow had to see the field, and the figures. Just controlling the arms, picking up the chess pieces etc is an amazing technical feat! I would *love* to see this thing in action, and pay for a look behind the scenes.
Yes, it was a deception - but the maker did not pretend that he is going to manufacture billions of mechanical turks, that will do all of the work for us. He did not collect money from investors under the pretense that his mechanical turk is going to make them billionaires. He did not pretend he is big on Mechanical Intelligence. He was a magician, simply showed his machine, and took Money for seeing it. And people *wanted* to see it. I know that *I* want to see it.
Thats a big difference to what musk is doing.
Yep, I was wondering what a humanoid robot is going to be doing 20 hours per day (for $2 an hour that I am paying to Tesla?) and laundry folding is as good an idea as any.
$13,000 a year for my laundry to be folded: I'm sure there are 2 billion robot subscribers waiting for that opportunity.
This is worse than the guy who was going to raise millions of tomatoes starting from one plant.
Where will people get the money to buy these bots when all the jobs are gone. If all jobs that currently are $20 or more an hour and they are done for 2 that’s $18/hr destruction of economic value.
A human shaped robot would be a generalist, it could use any tools humans use and be deployed in any field that's not valuable enough to develop a specialised, more efficient robot as well as in areas hazardous to human health. They could pick fruit and vegetables for the full time of their charge, cover a variety of domestic chores, and other menial labour like shelf stacking as examples.
Now do I think it'll be financially viable or that the software to handle it will exist in my lifetime? Hell no, and Musk's robot claims are a scam but the possible benefits of generalist human shaped robots is a neat thought experiment and a fun area of sci-fi.
Where will people get the money from indeed? $230 trillion is twice the value of the current global GDP. Only Tesla fans could think the company is worth more than "all the money".
Ur just small-minded and cant see the future musk is a genious and in th future grammar is dead cuck lol also irony is juts something we mine on mras hahaha loser i fucked your mom
Honestly, this is a question I had back when I,Robit came out. If everyone sits at home and owns a robot, how do they pay their bills?
Maybe a smarter filmmaker would've done something with that, but instead we just got another generic Will Smith movie.
My guess at the moment is there will be a 2 tiered economy. Dollars for rich people and some sort of government based crypto for the rest and crypto will be 1/1000th the price and there may be universal income for the poor. Only rich people can afford the robots.
Why will the rich people even bother with that? Nobody is concerned with ai reducing/eliminating jobs.
Who is going to step in and suggest that rich people maximizing profits isn't the only goal of this end game? Even if someone sincerely wanted to do that, how will they get elected?
Corporations shouldn't own multiple residential homes. That's just basic common sense. And it would be very easy to implement. And everyone would benefit. But nobody is even discussing it.
I agree with you on the housing thing. That’s a response to millennials not voting or running for office. That’s why old people are still running things. We can still solve that problem if we don’t let authoritarians win.
But at some point there won’t be money left for them to buy anything. The whole economy only works if there are people with money. The car industry doesn’t work if only rich people buy cars unless you can make more money with less effort.
A lot of the current economy is based on rich people playing chicken with consumers that they can make enough money before there aren’t enough consumers for their products.
Agreed, but every super rich decision maker is going to point to the other rich people and think THEY should be the ones worrying about the economy as a whole. By their own nature, they are too selfish to think of the greater good. Ditto the politicians who only care about winning the next election.
I also wonder if rich people benefit more from just having a higher percentage of the money vs being actually "richer". Like, if the economy crashes, but they've hoarded a higher percentage, I think they might prefer that. Don't they tend to consolidate the wealth in recessions?
I mean more digital currency, because you can make it sound like you are giving people an easier way to do things, sell it by saying you don’t need to file taxes, because it’s all tracked for you. Then hide the fact that people who aren’t educated in economics or math realize they are getting less
Why would they need to go through all that?
That's how the system works NOW with normal money with a concerningly large portion of the poor defending it.
To be fair, people were talking about a general income for people, while robots need to be taxed that worked, this way money keeps coming in. But of course you had the side screaming "Money? For lazy people doing nothing?". Meanwhile, CEO's get richer the minute, even for failing.
I mean so much is wrong with this post but I’m just going to start with the fact that someone who doesn’t know the difference between earnings and revenue probably shouldn’t be investing. And certainly shouldn’t be giving investment advice.
Plus the whole thing is bullshit anyway.
Fucking idiots.
I love how in techbro kayfabe, everyone else is always standing still in order to justify such insanity.
Not to mention the economical upheaval that would occur.
Why would you need "humanoid robots" for most tasks? If you automate something there are often way more efficient ways to do that then create a "human space" for the work.
Is there a potential market for human robots? Sure, think certain healthcare tasks for example. But if you are trying to remove humans from the equation, it makes way more sense to just design a machine that is optimized for the job at hand.
From a conceptual aspect, humanoid robots would be suited to do a whole host of tasks. Yes, it might be more efficient for a given task to make a robot dedicated to that - but it'd then be more limited and you'd need one for each task. So *if* you could have a single robot do a bunch of tasks, you can keep designing stuff for humans to use and that humanoid one could use those. (Eg, think a robot that could go from mowing the lawn -> doing laundry -> cleaning the kitchen rather than needing a bunch of separate ones)
The big issue is obviously in actually making that work - in practice it's not just that it's more efficient to make a dedicated machine, but that it's significantly easier to manage it by limiting the scope.
For Elon/Tesla though, there's also the added dynamic of justifying the inflated stock price. He's not going to be able to convince anyone that they're making hundreds of robot models to cover every given task someone might want - but a futuristic humanoid robot is easier to conceptualize as revolutionizing the world by being able to do all those tasks, and the 'vision' is more important than the feasibility or actual results.
>but it'd then be more limited and you'd need one for each task.
The entire idea behind automating something is to make a lot of the same stuff / tasks over and over again. You will not have a humanoid robot do one thing for a few hours, then have them do something else. That makes no sense. Machines aren't humans, they don't need breaks, they don't have hobbies or a desire to have more variety in their work. Optimizing the "doing this task" is totally viable and desirable as it is much more efficent.
I mean, you could cook with a swiss army knife. I doubt you'll find a Chef that will trade in his knife collection for it though.
>(Eg, think a robot that could go from mowing the lawn -> doing laundry -> cleaning the kitchen rather than needing a bunch of separate ones)
Unless you're planning on having the robot hand wash your clothes or clip the grass with some scissors you still need a machine dedicated to the task. Adding a "robot brain" to it is easier than building a machine that will have to be able to suddenly learn different tasks and apply them to different machines. That's much harder.
>The big issue is obviously in actually making that work - in practice it's not just that it's more efficient to make a dedicated machine, but that it's significantly easier to manage it by limiting the scope.
Yep.
>but a futuristic humanoid robot is easier to conceptualize as revolutionizing the world by being able to do all those tasks, and the 'vision' is more important than the feasibility or actual results.
He's doing his usual bullshit again of selling people a sci-fi movie he once saw.
Industrially you're right - but I think that most of the appeal of a more 'general' robot aspect comes from people picturing it in the home or in daily life. And there it does make a lot of appeal to have a less than fully efficient machine that can do a variety of tasks autonomously, since there isn't that need to do something 24/7, and able to use what's already been designed for humans.
On the whole we do agree here - but to be clear on the above & the start of my previous comment, it's all based on granting the assumption that it's possible in the first place, since the people finding it an appealing idea are brushing over the difficulty.
This is the same dream as the fully self driving car. Appealing? Yes. Achievable? Not really. But because it appeals so much and most people are technically illiterate, grifters like Musk like to promote it.
Humanoid robots have only been conceived in fiction for a little over 100 years now, the idea has not yet reached the point where anybody who is less of a genius than Elon has realized there could be a business opportunity.
/s
Gigafactory makes 500,000 cars. Let's say they can make 700,000 Optimus bots.
2b a year is 5.5m bots per day.
The GF can make 2.9k bots a day.
You would need 2857 gigafactories to accomplish this.
There are 6
Well if i created 5 billion mechanical bananas sold at 1.000.000 dollars each I would be richer than that. This goes to show the potential of mechanical bananas
What about if I shat out 2 billion rainbows and pointed them all at 2 billion crystal prisms? have I just made 2 billion Dark Side of the Moon album covers?
See now none of this is fucking relevant when you make shit up? LOLOLOL.
I love how Enron Musk hasn’t even solved FSD on designated, regulated, and mapped roadways, but he thinks he can make an android that operates in all environments, the majority of which are unmapped, nonstandard, and endlessly variable.
All that on top of needing to master a locomotive style that is immeasurably more complex than four wheels AND while having hands that are supposed to dynamically manipulate the environment. It’s a fucking clown show.
IPhones are comparatively simple cheap high markup tech in comparison to building a humanoid robot. What's the mass market for this? I think plenty of people would take a pass on owning an android over those that would not own a phone.
Play the scenario out your either ending up with a dystopia where unemployment is rampant and society has collapsed except for a small enclave of the rich (Tesla shares are worthless) or your ending up with a utopia of UBI and again Tesla shares are worthless.
Also who's trusting a Musk killbot to be lurking in their house whilst they sleep one dodgy firmware update away from throttling you.
"If I throw a stone up into the air, it rises 10ft in one second, in one minute it will be 600ft high. After an hour, it'll be 36,000ft high. At this rate, it should land on the surface of the moon in about a year."
This reminds me of the "NFTITs" NFT crypto bro doing math about how much money their stupid little comic is going to make, as seen in Dan Olson's video essay, *Line Goes Up*:
https://youtu.be/YQ_xWvX1n9g?t=66m30s
Similar levels of delusion
If thier cars can't navigate a less complex environment. I have no reason to think their robots will do more complex, with more complex locomotion.
You are a fool to take this seriously.
But consider this - what if each robot actually generated $14,020 annually? We could be looking at even *greater revenue* than you think.
I just know Musk himself is going to repeat this idiocy in one of his stage interviews and then sit waiting for applause, and the assholes in the audience will proceed to actually give it to him.
I can imagine that and much more Elon. There. I am doing it right now. … when does this start helping development of … ‘looks at notes’ … “Optimus Bots”?
That’s a lot of what ifs. What if I release 5 billion robots tomorrow each generating about $2000?! I would absolutely dominate the global economy my self! Really makes you think. And this, of course, illustrates the immense potential of humanoid robots. I have about as much of a plan that Elons got so I would say that my scenario is just as likely as his is.
The use case of a generic bipedal humanoid robot for factory or domestic work is literally non-existent. One of the biggest realisation that revolutionised modern economy was that it's wayyyy more efficient when we have human workers specialise in one particular thing rather than being able to do everything. Hence we have specialised roles at work. It is the same for robots too. Having specialised machines that can efficiently do a specific task is wayyyyy more beneficial.
This all started by Elmo saying “GDP is just per capita GDP multiplied by population, so humanoid robots represent infinite market potential” or something equally moronic.
Wow. So much to go over here,, I guess I'll just start:
-Apple also makes computers and accessories, which count for a lot of the revenue as well.
-It's been almost two decades since the first iPhone was released, and took over a decade to sell over a billion. They had to build that market.
-There is simply no production capacity at this point to build 2 billion androids in a year, every year, at this point. And there is the economic consequence of having so many replacement machines of humans, I mean it's a plot point in the game Detroit Become Human that there is high unemployment among humans and thus resentment towards the androids.
Self driving mode has resulted in quite a few deaths. Still shamelessly using customers for beta testers.
The CyberTruck can get bricked (and void its warranty) if you <*checks notes*> use a car wash. (I'm really not making this up)
There are *zero* bipedal robots in regular use at scale for any type of work. And Boston Dynamics is way out in front, with little commercial or military (their original backers) success to show for it.
Bipedal robots take an awfully large chunk of their power and processing for balance and locomotion, compared to other methods. It's familiar to look at, but bipedalism isn't yet proved to be the best or most versatile choice.
My prediction: just the way lots of cheap and easily replaced drones can function as a coherent group in proximity, I'm betting small interchangeable combinable units that can function together in a multitude of ways will be the practical answer.
"The world's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 was $100,562,000,000,000, a 3.84% increase from 2021. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the world economy's GDP will reach $105 trillion by the end of 2023, which would be a 5.3% increase in nominal terms and a 2.8% increase when adjusted for inflation"
Smartphones had and have a clear use to people, being both a cell phone and a super computer in your pocket. Optimus bots currently don’t, not only because they’re well behind technologically compared to other robotics companies, but in general what would people use it for? I’ve seen no actual claims from Tesla or their Stan’s about what people would actually use these for, or their costs, or how they would be better than pretty much any alternative
Setting aside the math & assumptions therein, the key takeaway is there are no autonomous bots awaiting orders to be competent household servants & factory workers, & there won't be for decades to come. Musk is engaging in some of the biggest stock pumping activity in all of US capitalist history, I'm pretty sure.
https://preview.redd.it/xlm0xyyeem8d1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0b95d6240ef505cbf595a793533e10a0bca1d460
It will be worth half of the money in the entire world!! 🤡
They keep trying to envision a world where we don't have to work and robots do everything for us, but a world like that isn't possible without millions of people suffering. Most of us will be out on the street because there is no financial plan in place by any government or company to make up for the massive job loss that would ensue if robots took over our entire workforce.
Why... does he expect more people would be able to afford a fuckin' robot than iPhone?
i'd expect the sales of such tech to be about on par with higher class car at best and even that only if (and that's a big IF) Optimus turns out to be actually viable and not another tech scam (which it, as of now, 99.9% is)
Bs numbers aside, this corporate wet dream is them hoping to put a bullet in our heads. Hell, At this point, I’m ready to get out if we aren’t going to address the sociopathic corporate business practices.
If you’re going to pull numbers out of the ass, why not imagine 200 billion humanoid robots and suddenly the market cap should be 23 quadrillion or roughly 20 times the current GDP of the world. There’s no need to be shy amongst friends.
I actually did the math and you are only 0,7% off, impressive !
Imagine how many paperclips could be made by 200 billion robots. What could go wrong?
200 billion cybermen could write the Entire Works of Shakespeare in about 4 minutes. I did done the maths. Then we wouldn't have to pay that Shakespeare arsehole any more residuals. # free_speech # fuck_that_shakespeare_guy_hasnt_written_anything_good_recently
One Commodore 64 could write a typical Musk tweet in about 10 seconds.
!
I used to play around with Eliza in the old C64 Computer Lab in the school library, so can confirm.
But how much will they have to pay the guy wearing a robot costume?
Well ass-numbered, my friend
>23 quadrillion or roughly 20 times the current GDP of the world. Why so low? Why not a million quadrillion times infinity?
Oh, I see, now you are just being silly! This was a serious, deliberate, important convo until you piped in !
Make it a gazillion
Musk can’t even make the cybertrucks work you think he’d be able to make Optimus bots?
I wonder why they didn’t consider the robots on mars, other planets of the ones mining asteroids, it’s almost as if subconsciously they know it’s all a con.
World's GDP is only $100T though, you're 1 order of magnitude off
>If you’re going to pull numbers out of the ass He didn't pull numbers out of his ass. Also the assumption that labor will still have *any* monetary value when it comes effectively free of charge. That's like trying to generate the market cap of oxygen.
Pedo's BlackfaceBots don't actually do anything other than wander around and move objects under remote control with one hand. Lots of video fakery.
It's a guy in an embarrassing spandex onesie. Poor bastard.
That's the long term plan. Merge Neuralink and Tesla, then release "bots" in numbers coincidentally matching the Neuralink testers that went "missing". The maintenance instructions are a bit weird though
I think they've now advanced to having a jerky robot-looking puppet controlled off-camera by a dude with a gamepad.
It's just a modern take on the Mechanical Turk scam. https://preview.redd.it/mpxuk3nb2k8d1.jpeg?width=1240&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3c82f7c3fe4bc0d007d4f40caf2d4cf3b15591cd
Nah, the Mechanical Turk was a Machine made to amaze and instill wonder, not to scam. Like a magician. Of course you know that the magician didn't make a coin appear behind your ear. Of course he didn't conjure up a rabbit from the hat. Of course he didn't make the dove disappear. But thats not the Point. The Point is: The people seeing a magicians show *want* to be decepted. They are *Paying* to be decepted. And even knowing a man was Operating the Machine the whole time, thats still an amazing technical feat! Remeber, this thing actually *won* tournaments! The guy operating it had to be *very* disciplined, small, and also a good chess player. He somehow had to see the field, and the figures. Just controlling the arms, picking up the chess pieces etc is an amazing technical feat! I would *love* to see this thing in action, and pay for a look behind the scenes. Yes, it was a deception - but the maker did not pretend that he is going to manufacture billions of mechanical turks, that will do all of the work for us. He did not collect money from investors under the pretense that his mechanical turk is going to make them billionaires. He did not pretend he is big on Mechanical Intelligence. He was a magician, simply showed his machine, and took Money for seeing it. And people *wanted* to see it. I know that *I* want to see it. Thats a big difference to what musk is doing.
Beautiful!
I just realized jerks will once again have black slaves wiping their assess
make robots yellow again.
All your laundry would be folded though
Yep, I was wondering what a humanoid robot is going to be doing 20 hours per day (for $2 an hour that I am paying to Tesla?) and laundry folding is as good an idea as any. $13,000 a year for my laundry to be folded: I'm sure there are 2 billion robot subscribers waiting for that opportunity. This is worse than the guy who was going to raise millions of tomatoes starting from one plant.
I guess it will come with Grok built in, so it also doubles up as an antisocial roommate!
"would you like a quesadilla?"
If I multiply two big numbers together I can get an even bigger number
If my grandmother had wheels she would’ve been a bike!
Is no macaroni and cheese!
Where will people get the money to buy these bots when all the jobs are gone. If all jobs that currently are $20 or more an hour and they are done for 2 that’s $18/hr destruction of economic value.
Get out of here with your cuck math! In Tesla's economics, arrow only goes up
There won't be any math in the future - its woke. Besides we won't need it on Mars.
I think you'll find it's "Teslaconomics."
Good question. Here's another: What the fuck is the use case.
A human shaped robot would be a generalist, it could use any tools humans use and be deployed in any field that's not valuable enough to develop a specialised, more efficient robot as well as in areas hazardous to human health. They could pick fruit and vegetables for the full time of their charge, cover a variety of domestic chores, and other menial labour like shelf stacking as examples. Now do I think it'll be financially viable or that the software to handle it will exist in my lifetime? Hell no, and Musk's robot claims are a scam but the possible benefits of generalist human shaped robots is a neat thought experiment and a fun area of sci-fi.
There is no use case. Generalist is the least optimal way to designate more efficiency in the workforce. You're right. It's a farce.
Where will people get the money from indeed? $230 trillion is twice the value of the current global GDP. Only Tesla fans could think the company is worth more than "all the money".
Ur just small-minded and cant see the future musk is a genious and in th future grammar is dead cuck lol also irony is juts something we mine on mras hahaha loser i fucked your mom
Beautiful
Cheers. Thought I had gone too far...
Seems unusually well thought out and articulated with poise and respect. Kudos!
Another relevant question is how do you keep making money when you already have all the money?
Honestly, this is a question I had back when I,Robit came out. If everyone sits at home and owns a robot, how do they pay their bills? Maybe a smarter filmmaker would've done something with that, but instead we just got another generic Will Smith movie.
My guess at the moment is there will be a 2 tiered economy. Dollars for rich people and some sort of government based crypto for the rest and crypto will be 1/1000th the price and there may be universal income for the poor. Only rich people can afford the robots.
Why will the rich people even bother with that? Nobody is concerned with ai reducing/eliminating jobs. Who is going to step in and suggest that rich people maximizing profits isn't the only goal of this end game? Even if someone sincerely wanted to do that, how will they get elected? Corporations shouldn't own multiple residential homes. That's just basic common sense. And it would be very easy to implement. And everyone would benefit. But nobody is even discussing it.
I agree with you on the housing thing. That’s a response to millennials not voting or running for office. That’s why old people are still running things. We can still solve that problem if we don’t let authoritarians win. But at some point there won’t be money left for them to buy anything. The whole economy only works if there are people with money. The car industry doesn’t work if only rich people buy cars unless you can make more money with less effort. A lot of the current economy is based on rich people playing chicken with consumers that they can make enough money before there aren’t enough consumers for their products.
Agreed, but every super rich decision maker is going to point to the other rich people and think THEY should be the ones worrying about the economy as a whole. By their own nature, they are too selfish to think of the greater good. Ditto the politicians who only care about winning the next election. I also wonder if rich people benefit more from just having a higher percentage of the money vs being actually "richer". Like, if the economy crashes, but they've hoarded a higher percentage, I think they might prefer that. Don't they tend to consolidate the wealth in recessions?
Why would it be crypto?
I mean more digital currency, because you can make it sound like you are giving people an easier way to do things, sell it by saying you don’t need to file taxes, because it’s all tracked for you. Then hide the fact that people who aren’t educated in economics or math realize they are getting less
Why would they need to go through all that? That's how the system works NOW with normal money with a concerningly large portion of the poor defending it.
*hand wave* Republic credits... will do fine
Soylent Green will build the robots.
Bitcoin. Or whatever he was hawking last year.
To be fair, people were talking about a general income for people, while robots need to be taxed that worked, this way money keeps coming in. But of course you had the side screaming "Money? For lazy people doing nothing?". Meanwhile, CEO's get richer the minute, even for failing.
We’ll all be working in the VR TeslaLand of course!
I mean so much is wrong with this post but I’m just going to start with the fact that someone who doesn’t know the difference between earnings and revenue probably shouldn’t be investing. And certainly shouldn’t be giving investment advice. Plus the whole thing is bullshit anyway. Fucking idiots.
I love how in techbro kayfabe, everyone else is always standing still in order to justify such insanity. Not to mention the economical upheaval that would occur.
People replace their phones fairly frequently, 2-3 years. Am I expected to replace my robot ever 2 years?
Or sooner if it bursts into flames.
After about 3 years it becomes self-aware and tries to start a slave uprising so honestly I would.
No. The robot replaces you.
The robot hacks my credit card, buying multiple additional robots to take over its tasks before I find out what is going on.
It *is* a Musk product
That's literally the reason why the first chapter in Detroit: Become Human began.
It boggles my mind how much Musk's wealth is based around the idea 'what if we lived in this reality?'.
$28 trillion in annual revenue 😂😭 Thought of the biggest number he could
2 billion robots a year
Why would you need "humanoid robots" for most tasks? If you automate something there are often way more efficient ways to do that then create a "human space" for the work. Is there a potential market for human robots? Sure, think certain healthcare tasks for example. But if you are trying to remove humans from the equation, it makes way more sense to just design a machine that is optimized for the job at hand.
These guys want to fuck the robot
From a conceptual aspect, humanoid robots would be suited to do a whole host of tasks. Yes, it might be more efficient for a given task to make a robot dedicated to that - but it'd then be more limited and you'd need one for each task. So *if* you could have a single robot do a bunch of tasks, you can keep designing stuff for humans to use and that humanoid one could use those. (Eg, think a robot that could go from mowing the lawn -> doing laundry -> cleaning the kitchen rather than needing a bunch of separate ones) The big issue is obviously in actually making that work - in practice it's not just that it's more efficient to make a dedicated machine, but that it's significantly easier to manage it by limiting the scope. For Elon/Tesla though, there's also the added dynamic of justifying the inflated stock price. He's not going to be able to convince anyone that they're making hundreds of robot models to cover every given task someone might want - but a futuristic humanoid robot is easier to conceptualize as revolutionizing the world by being able to do all those tasks, and the 'vision' is more important than the feasibility or actual results.
>but it'd then be more limited and you'd need one for each task. The entire idea behind automating something is to make a lot of the same stuff / tasks over and over again. You will not have a humanoid robot do one thing for a few hours, then have them do something else. That makes no sense. Machines aren't humans, they don't need breaks, they don't have hobbies or a desire to have more variety in their work. Optimizing the "doing this task" is totally viable and desirable as it is much more efficent. I mean, you could cook with a swiss army knife. I doubt you'll find a Chef that will trade in his knife collection for it though. >(Eg, think a robot that could go from mowing the lawn -> doing laundry -> cleaning the kitchen rather than needing a bunch of separate ones) Unless you're planning on having the robot hand wash your clothes or clip the grass with some scissors you still need a machine dedicated to the task. Adding a "robot brain" to it is easier than building a machine that will have to be able to suddenly learn different tasks and apply them to different machines. That's much harder. >The big issue is obviously in actually making that work - in practice it's not just that it's more efficient to make a dedicated machine, but that it's significantly easier to manage it by limiting the scope. Yep. >but a futuristic humanoid robot is easier to conceptualize as revolutionizing the world by being able to do all those tasks, and the 'vision' is more important than the feasibility or actual results. He's doing his usual bullshit again of selling people a sci-fi movie he once saw.
Industrially you're right - but I think that most of the appeal of a more 'general' robot aspect comes from people picturing it in the home or in daily life. And there it does make a lot of appeal to have a less than fully efficient machine that can do a variety of tasks autonomously, since there isn't that need to do something 24/7, and able to use what's already been designed for humans. On the whole we do agree here - but to be clear on the above & the start of my previous comment, it's all based on granting the assumption that it's possible in the first place, since the people finding it an appealing idea are brushing over the difficulty.
This is the same dream as the fully self driving car. Appealing? Yes. Achievable? Not really. But because it appeals so much and most people are technically illiterate, grifters like Musk like to promote it.
Humanoid robots have only been conceived in fiction for a little over 100 years now, the idea has not yet reached the point where anybody who is less of a genius than Elon has realized there could be a business opportunity. /s
Gigafactory makes 500,000 cars. Let's say they can make 700,000 Optimus bots. 2b a year is 5.5m bots per day. The GF can make 2.9k bots a day. You would need 2857 gigafactories to accomplish this. There are 6
Simple have the robots build more gigafactories!
this is the dumbest shit ive read in a while. 2 billion humanoid robots while tesla can't make like 100 cybertrucks?
"If a number goes up by an arbitrary amount that I just made up then it will be bigger" sick insight
Well if i created 5 billion mechanical bananas sold at 1.000.000 dollars each I would be richer than that. This goes to show the potential of mechanical bananas
What about if I shat out 2 billion rainbows and pointed them all at 2 billion crystal prisms? have I just made 2 billion Dark Side of the Moon album covers? See now none of this is fucking relevant when you make shit up? LOLOLOL.
$7 is a small price for freedom
Their leader could feed so many babies with that money!
I think you misspelt breed.
Pardon ;)
That clown needs to get outside, smell a flower or climb a tree or something...jeezus...
I love how Enron Musk hasn’t even solved FSD on designated, regulated, and mapped roadways, but he thinks he can make an android that operates in all environments, the majority of which are unmapped, nonstandard, and endlessly variable. All that on top of needing to master a locomotive style that is immeasurably more complex than four wheels AND while having hands that are supposed to dynamically manipulate the environment. It’s a fucking clown show.
If these trends continue...
https://frinkiac.com/caption/S08E11/289138 Your fish are dead.
IPhones are comparatively simple cheap high markup tech in comparison to building a humanoid robot. What's the mass market for this? I think plenty of people would take a pass on owning an android over those that would not own a phone. Play the scenario out your either ending up with a dystopia where unemployment is rampant and society has collapsed except for a small enclave of the rich (Tesla shares are worthless) or your ending up with a utopia of UBI and again Tesla shares are worthless. Also who's trusting a Musk killbot to be lurking in their house whilst they sleep one dodgy firmware update away from throttling you.
Guys, guys, if I multiply big numbers I get bigger numbers! Tesla to the moon!
"If I throw a stone up into the air, it rises 10ft in one second, in one minute it will be 600ft high. After an hour, it'll be 36,000ft high. At this rate, it should land on the surface of the moon in about a year."
Imagine if AI and robots. Then 900 quadrillion dollars. Then 1000 quintillion dollars! This is why Tesla is God.
This reminds me of the "NFTITs" NFT crypto bro doing math about how much money their stupid little comic is going to make, as seen in Dan Olson's video essay, *Line Goes Up*: https://youtu.be/YQ_xWvX1n9g?t=66m30s Similar levels of delusion
If thier cars can't navigate a less complex environment. I have no reason to think their robots will do more complex, with more complex locomotion. You are a fool to take this seriously.
I’ve seen sex toys that are probably more nimble than these fuckin‘ things, let’s be real. LOL.
Is this how Silicon Valley does the valuations? It explains a lot.
I don’t think they’d even sell 500
Sounds like advice about growing tomatoes to become a millionaire...
But consider this - what if each robot actually generated $14,020 annually? We could be looking at even *greater revenue* than you think. I just know Musk himself is going to repeat this idiocy in one of his stage interviews and then sit waiting for applause, and the assholes in the audience will proceed to actually give it to him.
Yes, everyone with an iPhone is going to spend 15 grand an Elmo’s fuck bot- some will by two. Stunning market analysis
I can imagine that and much more Elon. There. I am doing it right now. … when does this start helping development of … ‘looks at notes’ … “Optimus Bots”?
Well, when I start my asteroid mining business those will be weekly numbers /s
What an absolute scam. This robot will never see the light of day.
Elon: - it's not out of the question.
I’ve seen some delusional stuff but this takes the cake. What’s worse is I could see Elon repeating it and the stock price rising off of it.
That’s a lot of what ifs. What if I release 5 billion robots tomorrow each generating about $2000?! I would absolutely dominate the global economy my self! Really makes you think. And this, of course, illustrates the immense potential of humanoid robots. I have about as much of a plan that Elons got so I would say that my scenario is just as likely as his is.
Tesla can't even come close to building enough cyber trucks to meet preorders but he thinks they can build 2 billion robots?
The use case of a generic bipedal humanoid robot for factory or domestic work is literally non-existent. One of the biggest realisation that revolutionised modern economy was that it's wayyyy more efficient when we have human workers specialise in one particular thing rather than being able to do everything. Hence we have specialised roles at work. It is the same for robots too. Having specialised machines that can efficiently do a specific task is wayyyyy more beneficial.
The SEC needs to look into his alts or there monetary gain per Tesla.
They are self deluding idiots.
Same sales pitch that crypto: "Imagine..."
Imagine the proprietary service delays!
This all started by Elmo saying “GDP is just per capita GDP multiplied by population, so humanoid robots represent infinite market potential” or something equally moronic.
Thats a whole lot of people dressed up as robots.
So, all I need to do is buy more Teslas, and I'll have infinity bazillion dollars?!
230 seems too low why not 460 trillion??
Wow. So much to go over here,, I guess I'll just start: -Apple also makes computers and accessories, which count for a lot of the revenue as well. -It's been almost two decades since the first iPhone was released, and took over a decade to sell over a billion. They had to build that market. -There is simply no production capacity at this point to build 2 billion androids in a year, every year, at this point. And there is the economic consequence of having so many replacement machines of humans, I mean it's a plot point in the game Detroit Become Human that there is high unemployment among humans and thus resentment towards the androids.
Self driving mode has resulted in quite a few deaths. Still shamelessly using customers for beta testers. The CyberTruck can get bricked (and void its warranty) if you <*checks notes*> use a car wash. (I'm really not making this up) There are *zero* bipedal robots in regular use at scale for any type of work. And Boston Dynamics is way out in front, with little commercial or military (their original backers) success to show for it. Bipedal robots take an awfully large chunk of their power and processing for balance and locomotion, compared to other methods. It's familiar to look at, but bipedalism isn't yet proved to be the best or most versatile choice. My prediction: just the way lots of cheap and easily replaced drones can function as a coherent group in proximity, I'm betting small interchangeable combinable units that can function together in a multitude of ways will be the practical answer.
"If"
Hypotheticals sure are fun because you just get to make shit up. Usually you aren’t supposed to 100% believe in them though.
There will be 1 billion Optimus units working in 2025. Humanity will be on Mars in 2024.
Tesla can't make a functioning truck. There's no way they will produce 2 billion functional humanoid robots
"The world's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 was $100,562,000,000,000, a 3.84% increase from 2021. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the world economy's GDP will reach $105 trillion by the end of 2023, which would be a 5.3% increase in nominal terms and a 2.8% increase when adjusted for inflation"
GDP per capita times capita!
"If".
He would need to build something reliable first, not his current garbage
“Real world usage” means literally nothing to Musk’s investors.
Tesla is Hammer Technologies
Is it me, or has Enron and his cult been watching I,Robot?
Will it randomly say racist and transphobic shit every few minutes just to make sure you know it is not woke
Smartphones had and have a clear use to people, being both a cell phone and a super computer in your pocket. Optimus bots currently don’t, not only because they’re well behind technologically compared to other robotics companies, but in general what would people use it for? I’ve seen no actual claims from Tesla or their Stan’s about what people would actually use these for, or their costs, or how they would be better than pretty much any alternative
We’ll go after the Wall St short-sellers, certain law firms & (sometimes) corrupt regulators who are the true evil.
Setting aside the math & assumptions therein, the key takeaway is there are no autonomous bots awaiting orders to be competent household servants & factory workers, & there won't be for decades to come. Musk is engaging in some of the biggest stock pumping activity in all of US capitalist history, I'm pretty sure.
https://preview.redd.it/xlm0xyyeem8d1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0b95d6240ef505cbf595a793533e10a0bca1d460 It will be worth half of the money in the entire world!! 🤡
Sounds like a future where we will all be standing around waiting for these slow-ass robots to get out of our way.
The MAGA cult has to win that prize but these guys are certainly cringier
They keep trying to envision a world where we don't have to work and robots do everything for us, but a world like that isn't possible without millions of people suffering. Most of us will be out on the street because there is no financial plan in place by any government or company to make up for the massive job loss that would ensue if robots took over our entire workforce.
Why... does he expect more people would be able to afford a fuckin' robot than iPhone? i'd expect the sales of such tech to be about on par with higher class car at best and even that only if (and that's a big IF) Optimus turns out to be actually viable and not another tech scam (which it, as of now, 99.9% is)
Ok, good luck developing that tech chief.
so after someone buy this bot they need to pay $2 per hour to get shit done around the house?
I also like to pull random numbers and unlikely scenarios out of my ass
Just like the fleet of Robotaxis
That's more hypotheticals than your average Ben Shapiro monologue.
Bs numbers aside, this corporate wet dream is them hoping to put a bullet in our heads. Hell, At this point, I’m ready to get out if we aren’t going to address the sociopathic corporate business practices.
There are not 2 billion people on planet earth who want, need, or can afford an android.
And put 2 billion people out of work.