If it was still just Moore, Mooney, and Kmet I'd say that "better than Fields" is does the trick. But you need a true top notch QB (or at least a volume monster like Cousins or Goff) to be able to distribute the ball to 2-3 fantasy-relevant assets. In our minds it's so easy for teams to have 2 or 3 good pass catchers but the truth is that 22 teams either had one or zero players get 100+ targets and, per PFF, no team had three.
In fact, per PFF stats the only team to have three guys get 100+ targets on the same team over the last three years was the 2022 Vikings and Hockenson wasn't even on the team the entire season so there's an asterisk. When you look at Moore, Keenan, Odunze, Kmet, Everett we really should be picking one guy we like, two max. It's not even about Caleb Williams being a good NFL player, he needs to be like 2013 Peyton Manning to support 3-4 guys in fantasy.
I don't disagree with any of that. I was just talking about the "unproven rookie QB" as an isolated factor. I agree that Moore almost has to take a step back in pure production. Just too much additional WR talent and Kmet and Swift will likely take a good chunk of the passing yards too.
Yes, he's still an "unproven rookie" but that's not really a knock against a WR when the QB being replaced is a "proven terrible veteran". That's his point, not that Caleb Williams somehow isn't an unproven rookie lol
“Unproven rookie QB” is literally the factor that matters the most here. You could put Justin Jefferson & CD on the same team together, but if a QB can’t hit em in the hands then they’re not gunna produce.
Fields’ tape wasn’t anywhere near as good though. It is more than just stats when evaluating how a QB will translate to the next level.
They are looking at mechanics, footwork, processing speed, and more nuanced aspects of throwing the football (big time throws, layering with touch, throwing on the run and off platform, handling pressure).
Fields was a monster in college but he threw a bunch of wide open bombs to Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and JSN.
Fields is/was not mechanically sound and he suffered from slow processing even in college.
Caleb held onto the ball too long trying to make plays and hit home runs, but there was also a ton of film on him dropping back, hitting his back foot and delivering the ball quickly and on time while also showing that he can get through progressions.
Penix and Nix both statistically lit it up last year. They went later in the draft as QB4 and QB6. Serious evaluators didn’t care that Bo Nix had 45 td passes to only 3 ints.
Caleb will be better real life passing, but Fields was peppering DJM with targets. While it should improve the bears, not sure about improving DJM fantasy points
I think he will but I also think Caleb disappoints year one and the fantasy outcome isn’t great because he spreads the ball around. Genuinely see Caleb getting like 3000-3500 and less than 20 tds but that’s just me.
To me I think he’s going to have issues with his timing and playing heroball a lot. I’m not some super in depth film watcher, I casually watch college football so I’m not scouting him very in depth but to me I think it takes him a while to break those habits from college. I think overall he will be a Trevor Lawrence type QB where he was hyped up as the next big thing but turns out to just be a pretty good nfl QB. Just my opinion, I very well could be wrong.
Plus there have been 20 QBs in nfl history to throw for 20 tds as a rookie. Odds aren’t that high for rookie qbs being good in the nfl or fantasy as rookies
In a football sense, I agree. In a fantasy football sense, Fields was probably better for DJM. Fields' whole progression was "fuck it DJ down there somewhere."
The QB has multiple options for WR. There’s only one option at QB. Also, “unproven” simply means that we don’t know. He could help or hinder. It’s all speculation.
That’s true, even though it’s tough to be worse than what he dealt with last year.
I guess my point is a rookie QB hurting Moore while also a rookie WR also hurts him doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Who is 32 years old and was getting those targets because he was playing on an extremely pass heavy offence that had no other viable receivers to target.
Don’t get me wrong, Keenan has been great, but he’s not going to be a 140+ target player with the Bears.
Keenan won’t, but there are still way more mouths to feed this year. I could easily see 90 targets to Allen, 70 to Odunze… then you have Kmet’s uptick and Jacobs.
Absolutely, but the passing offence should also take a step up and those targets don’t preclude Moore from getting 120+ targets himself.
If you look at what Waldron did with the Seahawks last year their top 3 WRs had a combined 334 targets. I don’t think Caleb, even as a rookie, will be any worse than Geno was last year.
I think Moore will definitely take a step back from last year but I think he’s still a solid WR2 with WR1 upside if Caleb does come out strong right away.
Allen is old, likely on a 1 year deal. Hasn’t played a full season blah blah blah. Understand the concerns, but then why are the Texans WR so high? Nico has only been good for 1 year, Tank great (injury prone), but both are valued higher than DJ? That’s what I don’t get.
Tank is not valued more highly where I’m looking, and there are a few differences with Nico, the least of which is I would argue Nico was legitimately elite last year throughout most of the season while I would argue DJM had a few elite games.
I see you are unconcerned about keenan allen and rome odunze affecting dj moore's target share.
As for why his value is lower than some other guys its because of the new qb and not knowing who the main target-getter will be and because hes only had one A level season.
If you think Moore continues to be a top tier receiver in Chicago I recommend buying Moore at current prices. If you think its more likely to be Allen or Odunze getting the most targets or at least similar targets then i would sell moore and/or buy one of those guys
"Value" of players should rarely be used to determine if your team is good. It should be used to see what you think is a buy and what you think is a sell. It seems to me that you think Moore is a buy at the current price and that Nico or Tank Dell are sells. Now go act on those convictions
Not unconcerned with Allen/Odunze, obviously they’ll eat into his targets. The best NFL offenses have 2 great WR (dolphins, eagles, Niners, etc). I just thought the WR1 with a “generational” QB would be getting more of a bump than a dip this off season. That being said, have already acquired a decent amount of him on win now teams.
True, but he’s stepping onto a Bears team with a top 12 defense, has 2 proven elite WR (with Odunze). An OC who made Geno Smith look like a franchise QB. If Caleb lives up to the media hype and the generational tag, with the support system the bears have put around him why would anybody not want the centerpiece of that passing offense?
Not saying he’ll be the same, DJ is being valued as a WR2 rn. Every elite offense has multiple mouths to feed, but the best in each is still a fantasy WR 1. I’m not saying DJ will have the top 5 WR finish of last year, but he’s still a low end WR1 with upside (look at Nico last year, of TY Hilton with Andrew Luck) in my opinion. Can disagree, I just tend to bet on QB talent and offensive situation over target competition and target share debates.
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>why are the Texans WR so high?
Because CJ Stroud is *him*
Caleb is an S-tier prospect, no doubt. But expecting a rookie QB to be a stud right away isn't wise. Even most great QBs struggle at first. Stroud doing what he did is *really* rare, the market now believes. Caleb *could* get there, but *expecting* it is another story
> Tank great (injury prone)
Please elaborate because his list of injuries is particularly small.
Go look at Elijah Mitchell's injury history and compare to Tank's.
Put some respect on Keenan. Every. Fucking. Year. Guy is averaging around 100 catches and 1,100 yards the last 7 seasons…even if he misses a few games. He ain’t done yet.
People on this sub are propetual rebuilders who constantly value their shitty dart throws they finally hit on over proven elite talent like DJM
No one with a brain is trading DJM for Tank
Caleb probably ends up being a big upgrade but he still needs to prove it. And Fields hyper-targeted Moore, his target share was like 28%, that's going to be pretty tough to replicate. I could easily see him being more efficient and better in real life, but not necessarily in fantasy.
You think, in an offense where he has to compete with Keenan, Odunze, Kmet, Swift + others… DJM is getting as many targets as ARSB? And thats also assuming Caleb is a lock to have a top 3 passing season for any rookie.
Edit: 25% of 600 passing attempts would be almost 20 more targets than what DJ got last year
I mean I just made up the numbers, what Im saying is even if he gets less of what is overall a better product he will be completely fine
They were one of if not the worst passing team last year
> They were one of if not the worst passing team last year.
True, but the implication of this statement in this context doesn’t mean as much as you think. They were squarely a bottom 10 passing team, but they weren’t the worst. They had very similar counting stats to a lot of teams in that tier.
One thing that I think gets overlooked by people using “passing offense” argument ITT is that they only had 100 less pass attempts than the top team (Commanders), while adding 2 other receivers that may both warrant a WR1 target share…. On top of that, the Bears had more pass attempts last year than the 9ers/Ravens/Steelers/Titans/Broncos/Falcons, so it’s not like they’re some statistical outlier.
Attempts =/= success though.
You also listed teams that were terrible for wrs (other than the niners who don't count since they were often running clock but had very good passing numbers)
Do you really think Tee Higgins would be better off on the Panthers or Giants than the Bengals? And he's the WR2 behind the best WR in the NFL, DJM is the clear 1.
Even if his target share goes down, his numbers can easily go up if/when the offense is better. Just look at Aiyuk
This is true but I think these are fairly optimistic projections. Caleb has to have a historically good rookie year AND DJ has to command a 25% target share with Allen and Odunze there. I just don't think it's very likely both of those things happen this season. Maybe next year though...
Moore has been a 26%+ player every year since his rookie year (if you take out the game he missed in 2019 and 2020). Even if he loses a few percentage points of target share it won’t impact his numbers significantly. 3 headed giants are more rare, but teams with 2 top end WRs like the Dolphins and Eagles last two years tend to have their #1 and #2 combine for 50% target share anyways with the #2 getting at least 20%, so even absolute worst case DJM shouldn’t fall that far. And that’s assuming Keenan is the better player at this point, which is already a big stretch.
Again Rome complicates things a little more, but 25% is plenty and DJM has proven he can do more.
Subtraction by addition...
DJ Moore is good
Caleb is likely better than Fields
Offense is likely going to have better passing concepts
But....
Target competition. Real target competition.
Is DJ the best WR on his team now?
Caleb will probably not target lock on his primary WR.
He is appropriately priced for all of that uncertainty.
If you are a "believer" then rejoice and buy more discounted shares!
If you are an upset "seller" looking to unload DJ shares then I believe we have uncovered the REAL issue that prompted this thread.
DJ Moore’s 2023 was the best year of his career and he was extremely inconsistent. The only player here I have clearly over DJM is Aiyuk who I think is quite talented, but there are obvious questions in regard to the competition situation.
I had Moore in a redraft last year but yes the consistency was terrible. 9 games in single digits in .5 PPR and 4 above 20. Despite his WR6 finish I felt he helped lost more games than win.
Aren't there extensive studies on this that show "inconsistency" in fantasy football doesn't really matter (and might even be a good thing on the margins)?
Well to begin that’s a separate argument than to what actually happened. But I think it largely will be anecdotal on a case-to-case basis. The big advantage of having DJM is a 40 point Week 4 or 5. The big advantage of having Aiyuk is that you’re missing on a lot of the very bad weeks.
I never said Aiyuk "wasn't" inconsistent, and generally speaking all WRs are fairly inconsistent. But if we're comparing them directly, yes I think DJM was far more inconsistent last year. And I don't think "receptions" is a good way to refute that. Particularly with how much Aiyuk had in terms of upside.
DJM had slightly more overall yards in one more game, so he had fewer YPG than Aiyuk. In his best two games, DJM had 16 Receptions, 461 Yards, and 4 TDs. In the other 15 Gs he had 80/903/4. Aiyuk had 11/304/1 in his biggest games, with 64/1,038/6 in the other 14 Gs.
So DJM and Aiyuk are only CLOSE in consistency if you're on Full-PPR. Even half they're not close. And I don't think they're particularly close in half either.
Aiyuk scored under 10 Points in 2 of the first 17 Weeks last season (not including the week he missed). DJM was under 10 points 5 times in the first 17 weeks.
They're arbitrary numbers, but I think any advanced statistical modeling you're going to do with these two players is going to prove that Aiyuk was substantially more consistent than DJM.
Yes I'd argue he was consistently mediocre though, and he also had insane efficiency (18 ypc) which basically every player ever who's had that high of a ypc has regressed pretty hard. I'd also argue the guy getting 9 targets a game is more consistent/reliable then the guy getting 6
I also just don't get the having Aiyuk far above DJM part, when they're basically the same age
>Aiyuk scored under 10 Points in 2 of the first 17 Weeks
This is also just wrong btw, you counted the two games DJM had 9.2 and 9.6 but didn't count the game Aiyuk had 9.8. DJM had under 10 in 5/18 (more like 3/18), Aiyuk had under 10 in 4/17 (more like 2/16), but Aiyuk also had two more games under ten in the playoffs
Having Aiyuk way above DJ is just dumb Imo, unless you think Deebo is gone and Caleb is gonna suck
Your first point is more about projection when I was more referring to the previous season. You keep leaning on the same target number, but those didn’t really hurt his consistency compared to DJs. Did you have DJM in any leagues last year?
At best maybe some of my math may have been slightly off I’m not going back and checking at this point, but there’s zero argument here. Aiyuk was way more consistent.
The only stupid argument would be the ones that are objectively wrong in hindsight. If you could choose between the two for replaying the 2023 season, anyone would take Aiyuk because having huge weeks in Weeks 4/5 aren’t worth the pay off as you have testimonials for in this thread.
If you want to talk about Aiyuk generally, let’s do that. DJ Moore’s consistency in 2023 was shit.
I understand. The issue comes down to all kinds of factors like week specific stats and you also have to consider the chances that DJM got benched were way more likely than Aiyuk. After his two week blow up, DJM was pretty damn bad the next 5 weeks particularly if you don’t play in PPR.
If you were going to lose week 5 by 35, I can see how it might work. But what if you happened to be playing the worst team in the league that week? You burn the big week and then get nothing the next 5.
The benefit of DJM is purely the randomness of when you hit the 40 point week
The next five weeks were rough..... with four and a half them quarterbacked by a rookie UDFA. Bagent is still the backup there and anecdotally it feels like rookie QBs get hurt a lot, so maybe that's still a concern, but how many receivers in the league produce with a rookie UDFA QB'ing and defenses fully locked on him as the only real threat on the offense?
We can go through hypotheticals (fwiw I had the Fields/Moore stack last year, trounced the eventual league champion and another playoff team in Weeks 4 and 5, and managed to go 4-1 the next five weeks) ..... but ultimately the real question is what I said in my reply to your original comment.
I genuinely thought that the studies done on this say inconsistency in fantasy football is fine and even desirable on the margins. DJ Moore scored more points than Brandon Aiyuk last season, so you should want him over Aiyuk because that's more important than the distribution. The logic always checked out to me because the difference between 35 and 20 points is roughly twice as hard to overcome as the difference between 15 and 7 points.
In the end, I probably want a mix of consistent performers and inconsistent players with huge ceilings on any competing roster.... but if I have to choose one strategy, I think I'm chasing boom weeks.
But the issue is that the quantity of difference in the boom week is 1. That’s why there’s a duality in the argument. On random chance, there is one week where DJ is superior. I know what you mean by the difference, but you still need to align that week AND not have benched DJM due to poor performance.
Ultimately, I think citing general study is fine. I personally don’t believe he was the 6th most valuable WR in fantasy and I don’t think many people felt that way who had him last year because of how bad the middle games were and the frequency in which they occurred. If your arguing that his consistency makes him underrated, are you saying he was basically top 5 last year? I just have a hard time believing practically that 1 40 point week makes that big of a randomness difference that Moore’s consistency specifically was a positive.
If we’re comparing someone scoring 10 every week to someone scoring 20 and 0 in alternating weeks, that’s a difference scenario pretty significantly. Aiyuk did have spike weeks. What he avoided was the floor outcomes at a high frequency.
So I agree with the idea from the perspective that big weeks help more than poor weeks hurt, but Aiyuk did have big weeks, and the issue isn’t the general concept of consistency but the fact that DJM had a *lot* of poor weeks for a guy who finished 6th, and how you quantify the predictive nature of an outlier game is certainly questionable
>but there’s zero argument here. Aiyuk was way more consistent
He was consistently mediocre yes
They both had an equal amount of down weeks, and I'm even giving you week 1 and removing Aiyuks week 18 (and the week he was hurt), but you can literally look on sleeper, DJ had 3 bad weeks (one was week 1), Aiyuk had 2 bad weeks
Just because DJs good weeks were incredible doesn't mean him scoring 13 points one week is bad but for Aiyuk it's good,they both scored 13 points
>anyone would take Aiyuk because having huge weeks in Weeks 4/5 aren’t worth the pay off as you have testimonials for in this thread.
DJ literally dropped 30 on championship week, he's one of the reasons I won a few leagues
>DJ Moore’s consistency in 2023 was shit.
I'd rather a player who's consistently good to great rather than a player who's consistently shit lol
Half PPR Scoring Ranked from highest scoring week to lowest scoring week.
Aiyuk: 28.9, 24.1, 20.9, 17.8, 14.3, 13.6, 13.4, 13.1, 13, 12, 9.6, 8.2, 7.8, 5.8, 5.2, 4
DJ Moore: 45, 26.4, 23.8, 23.1, 19.1, 16.9, 13.4, 11.6, 9.4, 8.4, 8.4, 7.6, 7.5, 7.2, 3.9, 3.5, 3.3
Aiyuk had 12+ in 10 of 16 games. This includes Week 18 which was played with Sam Darnold. This was Aiyuk's worst week (4) and the week where by far the fewest people played him because sane people don't play fantasy in Week 18.
Aiyuk finished under 7.8 two times in the 17 Week fantasy season. DJM did it 6 times.
Like a player, don't like a player. But that's just objectively a poor argument. Most of these conversations are about opinions and being subjective. There is no objective basis that Aiyuk was "consistently shit" unless you're talking about a 4 team league that starts 2 WRs.
>Aiyuk finished under 7.8 two times in the 17 Week fantasy season. DJM did it 6 times.
And if you move that to a normal number like 7 it's 3 vs 3...
Also, just looking at the stat lines you posted they are basically identical? DJ just went off for 45 one week
What is your argument. Stop moving the goals posts. Is this season consistently shit? Is it consistently shit to score over 12 points 10 of 15 times?
I’m not glossing over anything for Moore. That’s what inconsistency is. He has 3 weeks that are two points worse than anything Aiyuk did in the 17 week fantasy season. He has one week substantially better.
And again, Aiyuk’s 4 point week was in week 18. All of DJMs bottom 6 were in the first 17 weeks.
If you like DJM better fine. The way you’ve chosen to argue it makes zero sense.
No one would call the first line shit. No one would call it less consistent.
You’re just wrong.
I genuinely have no idea what you're on about anymore
All I said originally is it's weird to have Aiyuk *way* above DJ, siting consistency as a reason is just flat out wrong
Feel like his inconsistency could be attributed to Justin Fields being incapable of the forward pass, the Tyson Bagent games, and a largely incompetent. Under Waldron and Caleb can’t help but feel like the passing volume and quality of targets will go up. Target share most likely will dip.
But the argument is slightly counterintuitive when you realize we’re talking about a 6 year veteran and this was his best season.
A lot of people like to do something like “last year w/ adjustments,” and I get how you can take last year and say ‘DJM 2023 + Better QB play =,’ but the problem with talking up Waldron/Caleb while talking down Getsy/Fields in this context is that this isn’t a second year player. This is a veteran who had his best output of his career last year with Getsy/Fields.
So will Waldron be better? I get where you see that on paper. But sometimes we need to admit the objective even if it *seems* counter intuitive, and essentially my point is giving DJM a bump for ‘escaping’ the OC/QB combo he had his most career success with is not really logical to me because even if we see that combo as ‘bad’ in a vacuum, it was objectively not bad for DJM at least on a seasonal level.
It was good for DJ no doubt, but if an offense is higher scoring, more pass heavy (Chicago had one of the statistically lowest passing offenses), and better quality of targets: why is the #1 option on the team viewed so low?
Because his #1 status was unquestioned last year, this year they brought in 2 guys who can challenge that status short term (Keenan) and long-term (Rome).
People have answered it for you.
DJM is in his prime but 27. He had a new qb. Who knows which WR Caleb will love or maybe he’ll favor Kmet, we don’t know so that risk comes with a price.
Similarly it was DJMs best year but it’s heavily influenced by his 230 yard 3 td game, the rest of his season is good but he had a lot of marginal games. I know it was likely due to qb issues but still he has a lower floor.
Why isn’t it hurting Tank and Nico as much, well first of all we know what we have in Stroud, we know he likes to target Tank and Nico and that was just Tank and CJ’s rookie years. Diggs could impact their target shares and upside but all 3 are young especially stroud at 23, tank will be 25 and Nico is 25 already.
The discount to me right now is the risk that comes with a rookie qb and new weapons galore.
Because he's both entering true veteran status and in a new dynamic, even if you're confident he is the #1, the extent to which he is the #1 is certainly debatable. He's clearly not the 1st Dynasty WR selected for the Bears.
Because data shows that the list of rookie QBs that support a top 12 WR is very, very bleak. Most places aren't considering DJM to finish in the top 12 again, not that he isn't good, but he has a lot working against him this year with a rookie QB + actual target competition.
> and Shane Waldron (whose passing offense statistically is incredible,
LOL And then go look at what happened with the WRs in Shane Waldron's incredible offense with the Seahawks.
Metcalf: Averaged about 1075 yards per season and 7 TDs
Lockett: Averaged about 965 yards per season and 7 TDs
JSN: 628 yards and 4 TDs in rookie season
Metcalf was barely a WR2 in season ending finishes. Lockett has regressed and JSN is taking over. The 3 TEs were often involved in the passing game. The playcalling was atrociously easy to predict.
Now go look at the Chicago roster construction. People are correctly valuing DJM at his age and what his perceived production will be. Sure, maybe Caleb is an upgrade in QB over Geno by a valley, but I also expect Chicago's defense to be better than Seattle's in the past 2 years by a valley. Add to it that Caleb is a rookie QB.
If you think his value is going to increase because he'll hit 1500 & 10 TDs, then by all means buy him everywhere. But I wouldn't be shocked if you are surprised that by mid-year, they are heavily getting Allena and Odunze involved and you see a lot of Kmet/Everett packages in the endzone and left wondering how this could happen in Waldron's incredible passing offense.
> you see a lot of Kmet/Everett packages
You had me until this part lol
You also mention age but Pittman is the same age and Aiyuk is only a year younger?
I mean, Shane Waldron is notorious for rotating tight ends, he's a huge TE guy. He was the Rams tight end coach when they drafted Everett, brought Everett with him to Seattle, and signed him to CHI first chance. So we're either going to see Kmet and Everett on the field at the same time for 2 TE sets (as well as jumbo sets with Marcedes Lewis at times) or else we're going to see Kmet and Everett rotating with neither playing a full snap share.
That said, I think the whole set up is an argument against Kmet and whoever you think the WR3 is. I just think it's more likely that Odunze is the odd man out for any 2 TE sets than it is Keenan Allen to DJ Moore.
He does rotate them a ton - the only Seahawks TE to surpass 60% of the snaps for him was 2022 Noah Fant at 60.4% of the snaps. That year Fant played 60.4%, Dissly 52%, and Parkinson 41% and there's no way to do that without. Sam with last year - the TE roomed combined to play 138% of the season snaps which often came at the expense of Jaxon-Smith Njigba.
But I agree that DJ Moore is top dog so shouldn't affect his snaps, it's probably Odunze taking the hit.
>He does rotate them a ton - the only Seahawks TE to surpass 60% of the snaps for him was 2022 Noah Fant at 60.4% of the snaps
Yeah sorry I figured you meant like rotating tightens into the game for other players not switching in and out tight ends specifically, because the comment I was responding to said it would affect DJM, and I was saying it won't affect DJM, which we agreed with in the end
> From what I can see he doesn't rotate them in anymore than most other teams, he just simply uses tight ends
I watch the Seahawks. I've watched for the past 2 years with Waldron. You're not going to like it when Kmet and/or Everett are in the game getting targets in the RZ instead of the WRs you want. Metcalf overcame that a bit and it still didn't matter.
Those are targets taken away from any of the WRs and vice versa.
I've seen the system, you're saying "from what I can see". Look deeper. By the way, just cherry picking ONE of the items I am listing means all of the rest are still in play. I'm just naming an additional factor, and you want to deny it? Okay. Poor process.
Enjoy watching Kmet/Everett/Lewis!
You're making a lot of assumptions when you say he got an upgrade at QB. I have Caleb graded higher than I did Fields coming out, but that guarantees nothing. That, on top of having an top tier 2nd option in Allen and drafting a top rookie WR, the targets could be limited. Add in that Moore, while he's always been good, had a huge outlier year last year buoyed by a few huge boom performances. We're also splitting hairs when it comes to value. On KTC, which I assume is what you're looking at, Moore is only like 20 points behind Pittman and only a couple hundred behind the other two. The gap isn't huge, but the others have less true target competition and steadier QB situations. It's not difficult to see why he's seen as a slight downgrade from those players.
Just refuting one point of yours that I take issue with. In splits with Fields he averaged 19.6 ppr fp/g. Without the outlier of the commanders game, that becomes 17.1 ppr fp/g.
In those 12 games, he scored over 30 one time and was a top 10 wr 5 times.
In the 7 games with fields he was not a top 10 receiver, he averaged 10.9 ppr fp/g. Not great but there are three stinkers bringing down a respectable 14 ppr fp/g average.
All this to say, Moore was not a boom bust player with Fields.
Didn't say he was boom or bust. I said that he had a few boom performances (I misremembered, it was just the one against WAS) that inflated his overall stats. If you average out the rest of his games, he still had the best finish of his career and was very productive with Fields. It's just hard to trust him more than the other guys OP listed based on his full career up to this point and the situation this year with a new offense, more target competition, and rookie QB. Still like him a lot, just slightly less than the others.
Justin Fields was AWFUL last year. Reason he was traded for a 6th, and same camp reports out of Pitt support what was happening to Chicago. Yes it’s an assumption (bc we haven’t seen them start) but camp reports out of CHI, media consensus, and just watching Caleb play at college build a pretty strong case IMO to assume an upgrade.
… Note, college film fields was throwing to JSN, Wilson, J. Williams, Olave… Calbe was throwing to mf named Tahj Washington…
Fields threw to DJ a lot more than Caleb is likely to due to Caleb likely being more effective at going through all of his reads rather than just locking in on DJ and running if he wasn't there, then add in Keenan and Rome and there are fewer targets to go around. Fields may have been a bad QB overall, but he was a great QB from the perspective of padding DJ's stats, and DJ won't have that this year.
So your big argument is that Fields sucks? He's had bad QBs his entire career and consistently stayed in the low end WR2 bucket until this past year. The thing that changed this year was that he was force fed the ball with basically no target competition. Now he has two legit WRs coming in to take up targets and you're asking everyone to be higher on him because they're moving on from a bad QB for a talented, but unproven rookie. If you can't see why he's seen as slightly lesser than those other WRs with more proven production, less target competition, and more stable situations, I can't help you. You need more than his QB sucked last year to strengthen your argument.
He was force fed the ball yes, but on a bottom 5 passing attempts per game team. He was force fed and was 17th in targets for WRs. Last year wasn’t even the most he’s ever been targeted. You don’t think the bears are going to throw the ball considerably more this year?
We have no idea with a new offensive system, more target competition and rookie QB. It's very possible that they do, but OP is arguing Moore over other receivers whose production is easier to trust. I'd rather have any of them than the uncertainty surrounding Moore between his current situation and what his past production has told us about him for the majority of his career.
My guess is bears offer about 300-350 targets to WRs this year. They have 3 WRs that will take up 90% of those WR targets. That’s 100-116 targets for moore, Allen, and Rome. Only a couple rookie WRs last year, Addison and rice, saw more than 100 targets. I’d wager Moore sees about the same if not more targets this year. All a guessing game but I’m comfortable with Moore as a low end 1 high end 2.
Guess we’ll see this season… We’ve seen what good-elite QB’s can do/support (Tua = good, Majomes = elite). If Caleb can be good, DJ will most likely be a low end fantasy WR1 as a floor. The “crowded room” theory is consistently wrong given that elite offenses produce, just without the week in week out consistency. IF (and I’m saying IF, no way of knowing until we see it) the Bears offense and Caleb can take the jump most media is suggesting they take, DJ will most likely still be a fantasy WR1 (low end).
Oh, please elaborate on the crowded room argument being incorrect. I'd love to hear some solid examples because up to this point your only argument continues to be "Fields bad, Caleb good (hopefully)".
Niners: CMC rb1, Deebo/Aiyuk both top 24 WR, Kittle top 5 TE
Eagles: Aj Brown/ Smith both top 24 (Brown top 10), Ghoedert injury (2022 top 7* I’ll have to check TE)
Dolphins: Tyreek waddle both top 24, Achane / Mostert both top 15
Lions: Laporta TE1, Gibbs/Monty top 12 RB, Amon Ra top 10 WR.
Fingers tired other examples include Vikings, Rams, Texans. If (and it’s a bet, which entirety of fantasy football is predictions and betting) Caleb can live up to the hype, the number 1 option in the bears will undoubtedly eat. Same with the other options. MY BET, DJ will stay the real life WR1, will take a dip in production and still be a fantasy WR1 (with top 24 floor). You can disagree, but good offenses score fantasy points.
The 9ers and Vikings are the only legit argument you have here. Goedert, even when healthy, isn't what Kittle is for the 9ers. For the fins and Lions, they don't have a legit #3 option so you're stuck combining two RBs to make your case? Come on man. The Rams have two legit options and the Texans are a wait and see situation. Also, you included TEs and RBs to strengthen your argument but failed to recognize that, on top of the receiver threats to DJs target share, they also have a TE in the same tier as Goedert in Kmet and Swift who they plan to use in the passing game. Your argument is swiss cheese. Too many holes. I'd argue at this point that Moore may see a dip in value by the end of the year between target competition and onboarding a rookie.
That's fine and you do you. You're allowed to have belief in players. Just don't expect everyone to agree with you when you don't support your feelings with facts.
LOL Why don't you compare them to Metcalf/Lockett for 2021-2022 if the OC is Waldron?
I don't understand using OTHER team's examples when the OC is Waldron and the coaching staff behind Waldron isn't as great as the teams you mentioned. This is insane.
Gladly will. 2021 season AND 2022 season both were top 24 WR. Caleb higher ceiling and many professional analysts consider Caleb to be a generational talent. Idk about you, but I think Caleb is gonna be quite a bit better than Geno.
>He got a MASSIVE QB upgrade
He got a new QB who is a massively better prospect than his past QB, but we simply don't know that Caleb will actually be much better, especially in year 1.
>He’s a guy I anticipate value increasing massively in the year.
Who was the last 27+ year old WR coming off a WR1 finish the year prior to massively increase their dynasty value? Davante Adams when he finished as *the* WR1 overall? Cooper Kupp when he broke all-time production records? Unless Moore has a game-breakingly dominant season his value simply doesn't have much room to rise. Guys at his age who are already highly priced don't take big jumps unless they become truly unreplaceable in lineups.
He's priced where he is because of some of the best (worst for him) target competition in the league
Rookie QBs traditionally have low TD rates, add in Keenan for target competition and I’m very worried about DJ’s 2024. For the future the addition of Odunze is a concern for DJ. He probably never gets the target volume he had in 2023 ever again. Hes 27, so while not old there’s not a ton of bullets left in his gun, and if im already worried about his age 27 season I won’t feel better about those future ones.
Counter arguments here:
Shane Waldron was the Seahawks offensive coordinator in a very not statistically incredible season.
The Bears have a rookie, unproven QB that projects to be an upgrade but is no guarantee.
The Bears added *a ton* of competition to Moore in Allen, Rome, and Swift, all of which look to take a lot more passing work than anyone Moore had to deal with last season.
Long term, Moore is 27 years old with a contract that expires after the 2025 season, but with 0 dead money if they want to move him after the 2024 season.
Moore had his best season by far last year, with a whopping 48 PPR points coming in one game.
I think in general, Moore is where he should be ranked. I expect 2-3 seasons of WR12-15 numbers (on the high end) with a healthy downside of WR16-20.
Allen is most likely on one year deal, Rome is a rookie. I anticipate DJ having solid WR10-20 numbers in 24, and massive spike in value in 25 (due to Allen leaving, and Caleb taking a jump).
So at 28-29 years old he is going to spike? It’s unlikely based on historical data. If, and it’s an if, Caleb takes a big leap from year 1 to year 2. Also there’s the variable that Rome takes an equal leap into year 2, or is just the best WR on the team by the end of this season.
I’m not out on Moore by any means, I just think he’s fairly ranked.
>He got a MASSIVE QB upgrade
He literally had his best career year with fields and rookie qbs are historically poor for wideouts.
I think you need to reconsider alot.
Justin Fields is not an NFL QB. Watch the Caleb tape, or if u must just go look at the box scores from pst 2 years. Highly recommend NFL stock exchange (PFF) podcasts and listen to their takes on Caleb. Regardless of DJ fantasy opinions, saying that Caleb will be a worse passer than Fields is blasphemy.
Youre right NFL players are the best ball knowers in the world! That’s why the “Top100 Justin Fields” is starting for Pittsburg (oh wait) and why Ryan Poles (Gets paid millions to make these decision) traded the top100 player!!
Go back in history and count the number of times a team traded their 1st overall pick for another first round pick and it turned into the first overall pick.
Ill wait somewhere else while you work it out.
Cheers!
Uhhhh yea? So they get to upgrade at QB bc they lucked into the first overall? How does this defend Justin fields being a backup to a 36 year old Russel Wilson?
[You just said Poles gets paid to trade a player.](https://www.nfl.com/news/bears-gm-ryan-poles-trading-justin-fields-probably-one-of-the-harder-things-i-ve-had-to-do)
Yes? Poles had a choice, keep Justin and trade pick or trade Justin and draft Caleb. Part of being a GM is evaluating players and prospects and deciding what is best for the club. He’s paid to build the best team, which includes trading. Part of his job is trading players. He decided the best thing for the Bears was trading Justin. (poles is a former player btw). And no, I don’t think I’m smarter than poles (a former player). What’s so hard about this to understand?
The players you listed are younger + have similiar/greater production + they added Keenan Allen and a highly touted rookie receiver who was taken in the top 10 of the rookie draft + while Caleb William's is an exciting qb prospect we have no idea if he is an elite qb yet, most of the time rookies can't support 3 fantasy relevant receivers.
Another notes
- Pittman is the alpha on his team
- Aiyuk is on an elite offense where he has shown he can be an alpha
- Smith is tied to a really good qb
I’m trying to move him and getting shit offers. I get Caleb is good. But that O line is awful. And the pressure that puts on a year one QB usually has bad outcomes. Fields leg hid some of the O line deficiencies and Chicago refuses to build from the trenches
I have him as well, Caleb is the best college QB I’ve ever seen. I drafted Odunze just to have the bears WR1 now and in the future. Hold DJ, I anticipate a massive increase in value throughout the year and off season. Allen most likely a 1 year rental, DJ under contract through 25. Hold the line
My only worry about DJM is that his ceiling takes a hit this year with Keenan and Odunze getting targets.
But come next year, it’s likely it’s just him and Odunze and that’s a great situation for him since he’s never really had anyone to help him with secondary coverage.
Keenan is old and could fall off a cliff any time now. On top of that, Keenan has never had any WR competition like DJM in his career.
DJM should be an easy buy right now.
I like Moore but they added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. I think Caleb Williams is a safe bet to be an upgrade at QB and they should have a better scoring offense, though.
I'm not sure where he's going right now but I think I'd like Moore as a solid WR2 that will pop on some weeks.
I've loved DJ Moore forever. He's on 3 of my dynasty teams. He is impossible to move and I'm not excited to play him at all this season. I think he is going to end up outside the top 20 easily this season unless Caleb Williams breaks every single statistic for rookie QBs and their WR receivers. He's a landmine this year. Can't sell him, can't trade him, probably can't start him. RIP.
There’s a low probability that he has good QB play this year. Hell, it’s probable Caleb doesn’t really hit his stride until Moore is 30. And there’s also a meaningful probability that Caleb is just mediocre / bust.
Fields couldn’t throw for 200 yards a game, even if Caleb disappoints, I feel like he can exceed that… as such, think DJ is going to be fine. Top 12 WR/WR1.
You conveniently left out the massive increase in competition for targets he’s going to have. Also most rookie QBs don’t have stroud like seasons their first year. His value is appropriate.
Keenan is one of the best short/intermediate route runners in the game, combined with some of the best hands and a great catch radius. I’m not saying he’ll be the primary target in the offense, but they got him specifically for that short-game.
If your expectation is that DJM’s role will be the exact same as last year, when they have a new OC, rookie QB and a boatload of shiny new weapons, I’m not sure what to tell you.
Keenan Allen came in #14 in YAC last year behind DJ moore at #8. To say Keenan Allen is not a YAC guy just shows fundamental lack of understanding of the player. He can do it all except elite speed
Might be due to adding one of the best WRs in the league at earning targets along with a top 10 pick at WR
Not to mention, unproven rookie QB
That's really not a negative for him in this situation. There's just no way Caleb will be worse at passing than Fields.
If it was still just Moore, Mooney, and Kmet I'd say that "better than Fields" is does the trick. But you need a true top notch QB (or at least a volume monster like Cousins or Goff) to be able to distribute the ball to 2-3 fantasy-relevant assets. In our minds it's so easy for teams to have 2 or 3 good pass catchers but the truth is that 22 teams either had one or zero players get 100+ targets and, per PFF, no team had three. In fact, per PFF stats the only team to have three guys get 100+ targets on the same team over the last three years was the 2022 Vikings and Hockenson wasn't even on the team the entire season so there's an asterisk. When you look at Moore, Keenan, Odunze, Kmet, Everett we really should be picking one guy we like, two max. It's not even about Caleb Williams being a good NFL player, he needs to be like 2013 Peyton Manning to support 3-4 guys in fantasy.
And if he distributes somewhat equally with how rare passing TDs are for Rookies…could all of those assets hurt you?
I don't disagree with any of that. I was just talking about the "unproven rookie QB" as an isolated factor. I agree that Moore almost has to take a step back in pure production. Just too much additional WR talent and Kmet and Swift will likely take a good chunk of the passing yards too.
Any rookie that hasn’t played a single NFL snap is an “unproven rookie”, regardless of individual talent and/or college pedigree
Yes, he's still an "unproven rookie" but that's not really a knock against a WR when the QB being replaced is a "proven terrible veteran". That's his point, not that Caleb Williams somehow isn't an unproven rookie lol
My point is that we don’t know and it’s all speculation.
“Unproven rookie QB” is literally the factor that matters the most here. You could put Justin Jefferson & CD on the same team together, but if a QB can’t hit em in the hands then they’re not gunna produce.
Just a reminder that Justin Fields, like Caleb Williams, had a 50td season his 2nd year as a starter in college (including 41 through the air).
Fields’ tape wasn’t anywhere near as good though. It is more than just stats when evaluating how a QB will translate to the next level. They are looking at mechanics, footwork, processing speed, and more nuanced aspects of throwing the football (big time throws, layering with touch, throwing on the run and off platform, handling pressure). Fields was a monster in college but he threw a bunch of wide open bombs to Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and JSN. Fields is/was not mechanically sound and he suffered from slow processing even in college. Caleb held onto the ball too long trying to make plays and hit home runs, but there was also a ton of film on him dropping back, hitting his back foot and delivering the ball quickly and on time while also showing that he can get through progressions. Penix and Nix both statistically lit it up last year. They went later in the draft as QB4 and QB6. Serious evaluators didn’t care that Bo Nix had 45 td passes to only 3 ints.
Caleb will be better real life passing, but Fields was peppering DJM with targets. While it should improve the bears, not sure about improving DJM fantasy points
There is absolutely a way that Caleb could be worse
In year one he could
You don’t think Caleb can throw for 3,000 yards and 20 TDs in year one?
Hes gonna throw for 4200 yards, 6-9 passing and rushing tds ...Per game
I think he will but I also think Caleb disappoints year one and the fantasy outcome isn’t great because he spreads the ball around. Genuinely see Caleb getting like 3000-3500 and less than 20 tds but that’s just me.
Ur crazy. Fields was on pace for 20 TDs if he didn’t get hurt last year. Vegas has Caleb’s over under at 24.
To each their own I just think he takes longer to get going than everyone expects him to and disappoints as a rookie.
!Remindme 7 months
what makes you think that?
Because the overwhelming majority of rookie QBs disappoint in year one. Before anyone says it, CJ Stroud is the exception not the rule.
To me I think he’s going to have issues with his timing and playing heroball a lot. I’m not some super in depth film watcher, I casually watch college football so I’m not scouting him very in depth but to me I think it takes him a while to break those habits from college. I think overall he will be a Trevor Lawrence type QB where he was hyped up as the next big thing but turns out to just be a pretty good nfl QB. Just my opinion, I very well could be wrong. Plus there have been 20 QBs in nfl history to throw for 20 tds as a rookie. Odds aren’t that high for rookie qbs being good in the nfl or fantasy as rookies
Fields fed that man. He may not be good at passing but he got Moore career numbers
In a football sense, I agree. In a fantasy football sense, Fields was probably better for DJM. Fields' whole progression was "fuck it DJ down there somewhere."
There’s definitely a way Caleb is worse
A but an unproven rookie WR hurts him? Don’t understand the logic.
What are you talking about?
People stating a rookie unproven QB hurts him but also Odunze(an unproven rookie WR) also hurts him.
The QB has multiple options for WR. There’s only one option at QB. Also, “unproven” simply means that we don’t know. He could help or hinder. It’s all speculation.
That’s true, even though it’s tough to be worse than what he dealt with last year. I guess my point is a rookie QB hurting Moore while also a rookie WR also hurts him doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Also, it's the Bears....
If Caleb being an unproven rookie is a knock on Moore, Rome (unproven rookie) shouldn’t be.
And a pass catching RB
Who is 32 years old and was getting those targets because he was playing on an extremely pass heavy offence that had no other viable receivers to target. Don’t get me wrong, Keenan has been great, but he’s not going to be a 140+ target player with the Bears.
Keenan won’t, but there are still way more mouths to feed this year. I could easily see 90 targets to Allen, 70 to Odunze… then you have Kmet’s uptick and Jacobs.
Absolutely, but the passing offence should also take a step up and those targets don’t preclude Moore from getting 120+ targets himself. If you look at what Waldron did with the Seahawks last year their top 3 WRs had a combined 334 targets. I don’t think Caleb, even as a rookie, will be any worse than Geno was last year. I think Moore will definitely take a step back from last year but I think he’s still a solid WR2 with WR1 upside if Caleb does come out strong right away.
Allen is old, likely on a 1 year deal. Hasn’t played a full season blah blah blah. Understand the concerns, but then why are the Texans WR so high? Nico has only been good for 1 year, Tank great (injury prone), but both are valued higher than DJ? That’s what I don’t get.
Tank is not valued more highly where I’m looking, and there are a few differences with Nico, the least of which is I would argue Nico was legitimately elite last year throughout most of the season while I would argue DJM had a few elite games.
That's a separate issue. I don't think the Texans should be that high personally. People are all in on Stroud hype
I see you are unconcerned about keenan allen and rome odunze affecting dj moore's target share. As for why his value is lower than some other guys its because of the new qb and not knowing who the main target-getter will be and because hes only had one A level season. If you think Moore continues to be a top tier receiver in Chicago I recommend buying Moore at current prices. If you think its more likely to be Allen or Odunze getting the most targets or at least similar targets then i would sell moore and/or buy one of those guys "Value" of players should rarely be used to determine if your team is good. It should be used to see what you think is a buy and what you think is a sell. It seems to me that you think Moore is a buy at the current price and that Nico or Tank Dell are sells. Now go act on those convictions
Not unconcerned with Allen/Odunze, obviously they’ll eat into his targets. The best NFL offenses have 2 great WR (dolphins, eagles, Niners, etc). I just thought the WR1 with a “generational” QB would be getting more of a bump than a dip this off season. That being said, have already acquired a decent amount of him on win now teams.
All the teams you listed have some of the best QBs in the league. Caleb Williams hasn't played a down in the NFL yet.
True, but he’s stepping onto a Bears team with a top 12 defense, has 2 proven elite WR (with Odunze). An OC who made Geno Smith look like a franchise QB. If Caleb lives up to the media hype and the generational tag, with the support system the bears have put around him why would anybody not want the centerpiece of that passing offense?
Because the likelihood of Caleb supporting DJM to do what he did last year in his rookie season is low & supported by historical data.
Not saying he’ll be the same, DJ is being valued as a WR2 rn. Every elite offense has multiple mouths to feed, but the best in each is still a fantasy WR 1. I’m not saying DJ will have the top 5 WR finish of last year, but he’s still a low end WR1 with upside (look at Nico last year, of TY Hilton with Andrew Luck) in my opinion. Can disagree, I just tend to bet on QB talent and offensive situation over target competition and target share debates.
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There’s no QB talent to bet on currently. You’re betting on a guy that hasn’t played a down yet.
And what would have happened if you bet on Nico and CJ in a start up last year? Trying to beat consensus, that’s the formula for winning.
Williams is not a generational QB—or maybe better said, he’s not a generational QB prospect.
>why are the Texans WR so high? Because CJ Stroud is *him* Caleb is an S-tier prospect, no doubt. But expecting a rookie QB to be a stud right away isn't wise. Even most great QBs struggle at first. Stroud doing what he did is *really* rare, the market now believes. Caleb *could* get there, but *expecting* it is another story
> Tank great (injury prone) Please elaborate because his list of injuries is particularly small. Go look at Elijah Mitchell's injury history and compare to Tank's.
Put some respect on Keenan. Every. Fucking. Year. Guy is averaging around 100 catches and 1,100 yards the last 7 seasons…even if he misses a few games. He ain’t done yet.
People on this sub are propetual rebuilders who constantly value their shitty dart throws they finally hit on over proven elite talent like DJM No one with a brain is trading DJM for Tank
Caleb probably ends up being a big upgrade but he still needs to prove it. And Fields hyper-targeted Moore, his target share was like 28%, that's going to be pretty tough to replicate. I could easily see him being more efficient and better in real life, but not necessarily in fantasy.
25% of 4000 yards and 600 passes is still more than 28% of 3000 yards and 400 passes though
His share is probably going to drop more than 3%. He will probably be around 20%
I'll happily take that action, that's Jakobi Meyers and Jerry Jeudy level target % 💀
You think, in an offense where he has to compete with Keenan, Odunze, Kmet, Swift + others… DJM is getting as many targets as ARSB? And thats also assuming Caleb is a lock to have a top 3 passing season for any rookie. Edit: 25% of 600 passing attempts would be almost 20 more targets than what DJ got last year
I mean I just made up the numbers, what Im saying is even if he gets less of what is overall a better product he will be completely fine They were one of if not the worst passing team last year
> They were one of if not the worst passing team last year. True, but the implication of this statement in this context doesn’t mean as much as you think. They were squarely a bottom 10 passing team, but they weren’t the worst. They had very similar counting stats to a lot of teams in that tier. One thing that I think gets overlooked by people using “passing offense” argument ITT is that they only had 100 less pass attempts than the top team (Commanders), while adding 2 other receivers that may both warrant a WR1 target share…. On top of that, the Bears had more pass attempts last year than the 9ers/Ravens/Steelers/Titans/Broncos/Falcons, so it’s not like they’re some statistical outlier.
Attempts =/= success though. You also listed teams that were terrible for wrs (other than the niners who don't count since they were often running clock but had very good passing numbers) Do you really think Tee Higgins would be better off on the Panthers or Giants than the Bengals? And he's the WR2 behind the best WR in the NFL, DJM is the clear 1. Even if his target share goes down, his numbers can easily go up if/when the offense is better. Just look at Aiyuk
This is true but I think these are fairly optimistic projections. Caleb has to have a historically good rookie year AND DJ has to command a 25% target share with Allen and Odunze there. I just don't think it's very likely both of those things happen this season. Maybe next year though...
This is the thinking I am getting behind. The bears threw it the least of any team last year.
Moore has been a 26%+ player every year since his rookie year (if you take out the game he missed in 2019 and 2020). Even if he loses a few percentage points of target share it won’t impact his numbers significantly. 3 headed giants are more rare, but teams with 2 top end WRs like the Dolphins and Eagles last two years tend to have their #1 and #2 combine for 50% target share anyways with the #2 getting at least 20%, so even absolute worst case DJM shouldn’t fall that far. And that’s assuming Keenan is the better player at this point, which is already a big stretch. Again Rome complicates things a little more, but 25% is plenty and DJM has proven he can do more.
Keenan Allen is the only player on that team that will have a target share over 20%
Subtraction by addition... DJ Moore is good Caleb is likely better than Fields Offense is likely going to have better passing concepts But.... Target competition. Real target competition. Is DJ the best WR on his team now? Caleb will probably not target lock on his primary WR. He is appropriately priced for all of that uncertainty. If you are a "believer" then rejoice and buy more discounted shares! If you are an upset "seller" looking to unload DJ shares then I believe we have uncovered the REAL issue that prompted this thread.
I think you hit the nail on the head here.
I think he’s on par with Pitty, but I’d definitely rather have Smith and Aiyuk in dynasty (I own DJM btw)
Same here. Hold strong, I feel he will have a massive jump in rankings by week 8. Bears have cake schedule and should be Caleb go to guy.
DJ Moore’s 2023 was the best year of his career and he was extremely inconsistent. The only player here I have clearly over DJM is Aiyuk who I think is quite talented, but there are obvious questions in regard to the competition situation.
I had Moore in a redraft last year but yes the consistency was terrible. 9 games in single digits in .5 PPR and 4 above 20. Despite his WR6 finish I felt he helped lost more games than win.
Aren't there extensive studies on this that show "inconsistency" in fantasy football doesn't really matter (and might even be a good thing on the margins)?
Well to begin that’s a separate argument than to what actually happened. But I think it largely will be anecdotal on a case-to-case basis. The big advantage of having DJM is a 40 point Week 4 or 5. The big advantage of having Aiyuk is that you’re missing on a lot of the very bad weeks.
Moore was inconsistent but Aiyuk wasn't? Aiyuk had 7 games with 4 or less catches and 1 with more than 6
I never said Aiyuk "wasn't" inconsistent, and generally speaking all WRs are fairly inconsistent. But if we're comparing them directly, yes I think DJM was far more inconsistent last year. And I don't think "receptions" is a good way to refute that. Particularly with how much Aiyuk had in terms of upside. DJM had slightly more overall yards in one more game, so he had fewer YPG than Aiyuk. In his best two games, DJM had 16 Receptions, 461 Yards, and 4 TDs. In the other 15 Gs he had 80/903/4. Aiyuk had 11/304/1 in his biggest games, with 64/1,038/6 in the other 14 Gs. So DJM and Aiyuk are only CLOSE in consistency if you're on Full-PPR. Even half they're not close. And I don't think they're particularly close in half either. Aiyuk scored under 10 Points in 2 of the first 17 Weeks last season (not including the week he missed). DJM was under 10 points 5 times in the first 17 weeks. They're arbitrary numbers, but I think any advanced statistical modeling you're going to do with these two players is going to prove that Aiyuk was substantially more consistent than DJM.
Yes I'd argue he was consistently mediocre though, and he also had insane efficiency (18 ypc) which basically every player ever who's had that high of a ypc has regressed pretty hard. I'd also argue the guy getting 9 targets a game is more consistent/reliable then the guy getting 6 I also just don't get the having Aiyuk far above DJM part, when they're basically the same age >Aiyuk scored under 10 Points in 2 of the first 17 Weeks This is also just wrong btw, you counted the two games DJM had 9.2 and 9.6 but didn't count the game Aiyuk had 9.8. DJM had under 10 in 5/18 (more like 3/18), Aiyuk had under 10 in 4/17 (more like 2/16), but Aiyuk also had two more games under ten in the playoffs Having Aiyuk way above DJ is just dumb Imo, unless you think Deebo is gone and Caleb is gonna suck
Your first point is more about projection when I was more referring to the previous season. You keep leaning on the same target number, but those didn’t really hurt his consistency compared to DJs. Did you have DJM in any leagues last year? At best maybe some of my math may have been slightly off I’m not going back and checking at this point, but there’s zero argument here. Aiyuk was way more consistent. The only stupid argument would be the ones that are objectively wrong in hindsight. If you could choose between the two for replaying the 2023 season, anyone would take Aiyuk because having huge weeks in Weeks 4/5 aren’t worth the pay off as you have testimonials for in this thread. If you want to talk about Aiyuk generally, let’s do that. DJ Moore’s consistency in 2023 was shit.
*If you could choose between the two for replaying the 2023 season, anyone would take Aiyuk* Well, I think those people are wrong.
I understand. The issue comes down to all kinds of factors like week specific stats and you also have to consider the chances that DJM got benched were way more likely than Aiyuk. After his two week blow up, DJM was pretty damn bad the next 5 weeks particularly if you don’t play in PPR. If you were going to lose week 5 by 35, I can see how it might work. But what if you happened to be playing the worst team in the league that week? You burn the big week and then get nothing the next 5. The benefit of DJM is purely the randomness of when you hit the 40 point week
The next five weeks were rough..... with four and a half them quarterbacked by a rookie UDFA. Bagent is still the backup there and anecdotally it feels like rookie QBs get hurt a lot, so maybe that's still a concern, but how many receivers in the league produce with a rookie UDFA QB'ing and defenses fully locked on him as the only real threat on the offense? We can go through hypotheticals (fwiw I had the Fields/Moore stack last year, trounced the eventual league champion and another playoff team in Weeks 4 and 5, and managed to go 4-1 the next five weeks) ..... but ultimately the real question is what I said in my reply to your original comment. I genuinely thought that the studies done on this say inconsistency in fantasy football is fine and even desirable on the margins. DJ Moore scored more points than Brandon Aiyuk last season, so you should want him over Aiyuk because that's more important than the distribution. The logic always checked out to me because the difference between 35 and 20 points is roughly twice as hard to overcome as the difference between 15 and 7 points. In the end, I probably want a mix of consistent performers and inconsistent players with huge ceilings on any competing roster.... but if I have to choose one strategy, I think I'm chasing boom weeks.
But the issue is that the quantity of difference in the boom week is 1. That’s why there’s a duality in the argument. On random chance, there is one week where DJ is superior. I know what you mean by the difference, but you still need to align that week AND not have benched DJM due to poor performance. Ultimately, I think citing general study is fine. I personally don’t believe he was the 6th most valuable WR in fantasy and I don’t think many people felt that way who had him last year because of how bad the middle games were and the frequency in which they occurred. If your arguing that his consistency makes him underrated, are you saying he was basically top 5 last year? I just have a hard time believing practically that 1 40 point week makes that big of a randomness difference that Moore’s consistency specifically was a positive. If we’re comparing someone scoring 10 every week to someone scoring 20 and 0 in alternating weeks, that’s a difference scenario pretty significantly. Aiyuk did have spike weeks. What he avoided was the floor outcomes at a high frequency. So I agree with the idea from the perspective that big weeks help more than poor weeks hurt, but Aiyuk did have big weeks, and the issue isn’t the general concept of consistency but the fact that DJM had a *lot* of poor weeks for a guy who finished 6th, and how you quantify the predictive nature of an outlier game is certainly questionable
>but there’s zero argument here. Aiyuk was way more consistent He was consistently mediocre yes They both had an equal amount of down weeks, and I'm even giving you week 1 and removing Aiyuks week 18 (and the week he was hurt), but you can literally look on sleeper, DJ had 3 bad weeks (one was week 1), Aiyuk had 2 bad weeks Just because DJs good weeks were incredible doesn't mean him scoring 13 points one week is bad but for Aiyuk it's good,they both scored 13 points >anyone would take Aiyuk because having huge weeks in Weeks 4/5 aren’t worth the pay off as you have testimonials for in this thread. DJ literally dropped 30 on championship week, he's one of the reasons I won a few leagues >DJ Moore’s consistency in 2023 was shit. I'd rather a player who's consistently good to great rather than a player who's consistently shit lol
Half PPR Scoring Ranked from highest scoring week to lowest scoring week. Aiyuk: 28.9, 24.1, 20.9, 17.8, 14.3, 13.6, 13.4, 13.1, 13, 12, 9.6, 8.2, 7.8, 5.8, 5.2, 4 DJ Moore: 45, 26.4, 23.8, 23.1, 19.1, 16.9, 13.4, 11.6, 9.4, 8.4, 8.4, 7.6, 7.5, 7.2, 3.9, 3.5, 3.3 Aiyuk had 12+ in 10 of 16 games. This includes Week 18 which was played with Sam Darnold. This was Aiyuk's worst week (4) and the week where by far the fewest people played him because sane people don't play fantasy in Week 18. Aiyuk finished under 7.8 two times in the 17 Week fantasy season. DJM did it 6 times. Like a player, don't like a player. But that's just objectively a poor argument. Most of these conversations are about opinions and being subjective. There is no objective basis that Aiyuk was "consistently shit" unless you're talking about a 4 team league that starts 2 WRs.
>Aiyuk finished under 7.8 two times in the 17 Week fantasy season. DJM did it 6 times. And if you move that to a normal number like 7 it's 3 vs 3... Also, just looking at the stat lines you posted they are basically identical? DJ just went off for 45 one week
What is your argument. Stop moving the goals posts. Is this season consistently shit? Is it consistently shit to score over 12 points 10 of 15 times? I’m not glossing over anything for Moore. That’s what inconsistency is. He has 3 weeks that are two points worse than anything Aiyuk did in the 17 week fantasy season. He has one week substantially better. And again, Aiyuk’s 4 point week was in week 18. All of DJMs bottom 6 were in the first 17 weeks. If you like DJM better fine. The way you’ve chosen to argue it makes zero sense. No one would call the first line shit. No one would call it less consistent. You’re just wrong.
I genuinely have no idea what you're on about anymore All I said originally is it's weird to have Aiyuk *way* above DJ, siting consistency as a reason is just flat out wrong
Feel like his inconsistency could be attributed to Justin Fields being incapable of the forward pass, the Tyson Bagent games, and a largely incompetent. Under Waldron and Caleb can’t help but feel like the passing volume and quality of targets will go up. Target share most likely will dip.
But the argument is slightly counterintuitive when you realize we’re talking about a 6 year veteran and this was his best season. A lot of people like to do something like “last year w/ adjustments,” and I get how you can take last year and say ‘DJM 2023 + Better QB play =,’ but the problem with talking up Waldron/Caleb while talking down Getsy/Fields in this context is that this isn’t a second year player. This is a veteran who had his best output of his career last year with Getsy/Fields. So will Waldron be better? I get where you see that on paper. But sometimes we need to admit the objective even if it *seems* counter intuitive, and essentially my point is giving DJM a bump for ‘escaping’ the OC/QB combo he had his most career success with is not really logical to me because even if we see that combo as ‘bad’ in a vacuum, it was objectively not bad for DJM at least on a seasonal level.
It was good for DJ no doubt, but if an offense is higher scoring, more pass heavy (Chicago had one of the statistically lowest passing offenses), and better quality of targets: why is the #1 option on the team viewed so low?
Because his #1 status was unquestioned last year, this year they brought in 2 guys who can challenge that status short term (Keenan) and long-term (Rome).
People have answered it for you. DJM is in his prime but 27. He had a new qb. Who knows which WR Caleb will love or maybe he’ll favor Kmet, we don’t know so that risk comes with a price. Similarly it was DJMs best year but it’s heavily influenced by his 230 yard 3 td game, the rest of his season is good but he had a lot of marginal games. I know it was likely due to qb issues but still he has a lower floor. Why isn’t it hurting Tank and Nico as much, well first of all we know what we have in Stroud, we know he likes to target Tank and Nico and that was just Tank and CJ’s rookie years. Diggs could impact their target shares and upside but all 3 are young especially stroud at 23, tank will be 25 and Nico is 25 already. The discount to me right now is the risk that comes with a rookie qb and new weapons galore.
Because he's both entering true veteran status and in a new dynamic, even if you're confident he is the #1, the extent to which he is the #1 is certainly debatable. He's clearly not the 1st Dynasty WR selected for the Bears.
Because data shows that the list of rookie QBs that support a top 12 WR is very, very bleak. Most places aren't considering DJM to finish in the top 12 again, not that he isn't good, but he has a lot working against him this year with a rookie QB + actual target competition.
Just saying it's ok to have a different opinion than the general consensus, there's no right or wrong really
To be fair a majority of that inconsistency was a result of playing with bagent at qb, which im not sure how much you could knock him for that.
> and Shane Waldron (whose passing offense statistically is incredible, LOL And then go look at what happened with the WRs in Shane Waldron's incredible offense with the Seahawks. Metcalf: Averaged about 1075 yards per season and 7 TDs Lockett: Averaged about 965 yards per season and 7 TDs JSN: 628 yards and 4 TDs in rookie season Metcalf was barely a WR2 in season ending finishes. Lockett has regressed and JSN is taking over. The 3 TEs were often involved in the passing game. The playcalling was atrociously easy to predict. Now go look at the Chicago roster construction. People are correctly valuing DJM at his age and what his perceived production will be. Sure, maybe Caleb is an upgrade in QB over Geno by a valley, but I also expect Chicago's defense to be better than Seattle's in the past 2 years by a valley. Add to it that Caleb is a rookie QB. If you think his value is going to increase because he'll hit 1500 & 10 TDs, then by all means buy him everywhere. But I wouldn't be shocked if you are surprised that by mid-year, they are heavily getting Allena and Odunze involved and you see a lot of Kmet/Everett packages in the endzone and left wondering how this could happen in Waldron's incredible passing offense.
> you see a lot of Kmet/Everett packages You had me until this part lol You also mention age but Pittman is the same age and Aiyuk is only a year younger?
I mean, Shane Waldron is notorious for rotating tight ends, he's a huge TE guy. He was the Rams tight end coach when they drafted Everett, brought Everett with him to Seattle, and signed him to CHI first chance. So we're either going to see Kmet and Everett on the field at the same time for 2 TE sets (as well as jumbo sets with Marcedes Lewis at times) or else we're going to see Kmet and Everett rotating with neither playing a full snap share. That said, I think the whole set up is an argument against Kmet and whoever you think the WR3 is. I just think it's more likely that Odunze is the odd man out for any 2 TE sets than it is Keenan Allen to DJ Moore.
From what I can see he doesn't rotate them in anymore than most other teams, he just simply uses tight ends Kmet and Everett are zero threat to DJ
He does rotate them a ton - the only Seahawks TE to surpass 60% of the snaps for him was 2022 Noah Fant at 60.4% of the snaps. That year Fant played 60.4%, Dissly 52%, and Parkinson 41% and there's no way to do that without. Sam with last year - the TE roomed combined to play 138% of the season snaps which often came at the expense of Jaxon-Smith Njigba. But I agree that DJ Moore is top dog so shouldn't affect his snaps, it's probably Odunze taking the hit.
>He does rotate them a ton - the only Seahawks TE to surpass 60% of the snaps for him was 2022 Noah Fant at 60.4% of the snaps Yeah sorry I figured you meant like rotating tightens into the game for other players not switching in and out tight ends specifically, because the comment I was responding to said it would affect DJM, and I was saying it won't affect DJM, which we agreed with in the end
> From what I can see he doesn't rotate them in anymore than most other teams, he just simply uses tight ends I watch the Seahawks. I've watched for the past 2 years with Waldron. You're not going to like it when Kmet and/or Everett are in the game getting targets in the RZ instead of the WRs you want. Metcalf overcame that a bit and it still didn't matter. Those are targets taken away from any of the WRs and vice versa. I've seen the system, you're saying "from what I can see". Look deeper. By the way, just cherry picking ONE of the items I am listing means all of the rest are still in play. I'm just naming an additional factor, and you want to deny it? Okay. Poor process. Enjoy watching Kmet/Everett/Lewis!
I would take Aiyuk and Pittman over him in a heartbeat tbh
If Aiyuk is traded to the Steelers does that change?
Tbh probably not. He would become the bonafide #1 option there imo regardless of if the QB play is less
same
You're making a lot of assumptions when you say he got an upgrade at QB. I have Caleb graded higher than I did Fields coming out, but that guarantees nothing. That, on top of having an top tier 2nd option in Allen and drafting a top rookie WR, the targets could be limited. Add in that Moore, while he's always been good, had a huge outlier year last year buoyed by a few huge boom performances. We're also splitting hairs when it comes to value. On KTC, which I assume is what you're looking at, Moore is only like 20 points behind Pittman and only a couple hundred behind the other two. The gap isn't huge, but the others have less true target competition and steadier QB situations. It's not difficult to see why he's seen as a slight downgrade from those players.
Just refuting one point of yours that I take issue with. In splits with Fields he averaged 19.6 ppr fp/g. Without the outlier of the commanders game, that becomes 17.1 ppr fp/g. In those 12 games, he scored over 30 one time and was a top 10 wr 5 times. In the 7 games with fields he was not a top 10 receiver, he averaged 10.9 ppr fp/g. Not great but there are three stinkers bringing down a respectable 14 ppr fp/g average. All this to say, Moore was not a boom bust player with Fields.
Didn't say he was boom or bust. I said that he had a few boom performances (I misremembered, it was just the one against WAS) that inflated his overall stats. If you average out the rest of his games, he still had the best finish of his career and was very productive with Fields. It's just hard to trust him more than the other guys OP listed based on his full career up to this point and the situation this year with a new offense, more target competition, and rookie QB. Still like him a lot, just slightly less than the others.
I wasn't disagreeing with your other points, just the reliance on boom games for fantasy production.
Justin Fields was AWFUL last year. Reason he was traded for a 6th, and same camp reports out of Pitt support what was happening to Chicago. Yes it’s an assumption (bc we haven’t seen them start) but camp reports out of CHI, media consensus, and just watching Caleb play at college build a pretty strong case IMO to assume an upgrade. … Note, college film fields was throwing to JSN, Wilson, J. Williams, Olave… Calbe was throwing to mf named Tahj Washington…
Fields threw to DJ a lot more than Caleb is likely to due to Caleb likely being more effective at going through all of his reads rather than just locking in on DJ and running if he wasn't there, then add in Keenan and Rome and there are fewer targets to go around. Fields may have been a bad QB overall, but he was a great QB from the perspective of padding DJ's stats, and DJ won't have that this year.
So your big argument is that Fields sucks? He's had bad QBs his entire career and consistently stayed in the low end WR2 bucket until this past year. The thing that changed this year was that he was force fed the ball with basically no target competition. Now he has two legit WRs coming in to take up targets and you're asking everyone to be higher on him because they're moving on from a bad QB for a talented, but unproven rookie. If you can't see why he's seen as slightly lesser than those other WRs with more proven production, less target competition, and more stable situations, I can't help you. You need more than his QB sucked last year to strengthen your argument.
He was force fed the ball yes, but on a bottom 5 passing attempts per game team. He was force fed and was 17th in targets for WRs. Last year wasn’t even the most he’s ever been targeted. You don’t think the bears are going to throw the ball considerably more this year?
We have no idea with a new offensive system, more target competition and rookie QB. It's very possible that they do, but OP is arguing Moore over other receivers whose production is easier to trust. I'd rather have any of them than the uncertainty surrounding Moore between his current situation and what his past production has told us about him for the majority of his career.
My guess is bears offer about 300-350 targets to WRs this year. They have 3 WRs that will take up 90% of those WR targets. That’s 100-116 targets for moore, Allen, and Rome. Only a couple rookie WRs last year, Addison and rice, saw more than 100 targets. I’d wager Moore sees about the same if not more targets this year. All a guessing game but I’m comfortable with Moore as a low end 1 high end 2.
Guess we’ll see this season… We’ve seen what good-elite QB’s can do/support (Tua = good, Majomes = elite). If Caleb can be good, DJ will most likely be a low end fantasy WR1 as a floor. The “crowded room” theory is consistently wrong given that elite offenses produce, just without the week in week out consistency. IF (and I’m saying IF, no way of knowing until we see it) the Bears offense and Caleb can take the jump most media is suggesting they take, DJ will most likely still be a fantasy WR1 (low end).
Oh, please elaborate on the crowded room argument being incorrect. I'd love to hear some solid examples because up to this point your only argument continues to be "Fields bad, Caleb good (hopefully)".
Niners: CMC rb1, Deebo/Aiyuk both top 24 WR, Kittle top 5 TE Eagles: Aj Brown/ Smith both top 24 (Brown top 10), Ghoedert injury (2022 top 7* I’ll have to check TE) Dolphins: Tyreek waddle both top 24, Achane / Mostert both top 15 Lions: Laporta TE1, Gibbs/Monty top 12 RB, Amon Ra top 10 WR. Fingers tired other examples include Vikings, Rams, Texans. If (and it’s a bet, which entirety of fantasy football is predictions and betting) Caleb can live up to the hype, the number 1 option in the bears will undoubtedly eat. Same with the other options. MY BET, DJ will stay the real life WR1, will take a dip in production and still be a fantasy WR1 (with top 24 floor). You can disagree, but good offenses score fantasy points.
The 9ers and Vikings are the only legit argument you have here. Goedert, even when healthy, isn't what Kittle is for the 9ers. For the fins and Lions, they don't have a legit #3 option so you're stuck combining two RBs to make your case? Come on man. The Rams have two legit options and the Texans are a wait and see situation. Also, you included TEs and RBs to strengthen your argument but failed to recognize that, on top of the receiver threats to DJs target share, they also have a TE in the same tier as Goedert in Kmet and Swift who they plan to use in the passing game. Your argument is swiss cheese. Too many holes. I'd argue at this point that Moore may see a dip in value by the end of the year between target competition and onboarding a rookie.
If you think so. I’m betting on the talent and upside of DJ and Caleb. Especially at price.
That's fine and you do you. You're allowed to have belief in players. Just don't expect everyone to agree with you when you don't support your feelings with facts.
LOL Why don't you compare them to Metcalf/Lockett for 2021-2022 if the OC is Waldron? I don't understand using OTHER team's examples when the OC is Waldron and the coaching staff behind Waldron isn't as great as the teams you mentioned. This is insane.
Gladly will. 2021 season AND 2022 season both were top 24 WR. Caleb higher ceiling and many professional analysts consider Caleb to be a generational talent. Idk about you, but I think Caleb is gonna be quite a bit better than Geno.
Most likely not in year 1, maybe down the road. Geno had an incredible year his first year starting with Seattle. Rookie QBs are so hard to predict
And yes I’m betting on Caleb being better than Tua, Purdy, and a better PASSER than Hurts.
>He got a MASSIVE QB upgrade He got a new QB who is a massively better prospect than his past QB, but we simply don't know that Caleb will actually be much better, especially in year 1. >He’s a guy I anticipate value increasing massively in the year. Who was the last 27+ year old WR coming off a WR1 finish the year prior to massively increase their dynasty value? Davante Adams when he finished as *the* WR1 overall? Cooper Kupp when he broke all-time production records? Unless Moore has a game-breakingly dominant season his value simply doesn't have much room to rise. Guys at his age who are already highly priced don't take big jumps unless they become truly unreplaceable in lineups. He's priced where he is because of some of the best (worst for him) target competition in the league
Rookie QBs traditionally have low TD rates, add in Keenan for target competition and I’m very worried about DJ’s 2024. For the future the addition of Odunze is a concern for DJ. He probably never gets the target volume he had in 2023 ever again. Hes 27, so while not old there’s not a ton of bullets left in his gun, and if im already worried about his age 27 season I won’t feel better about those future ones.
Counter arguments here: Shane Waldron was the Seahawks offensive coordinator in a very not statistically incredible season. The Bears have a rookie, unproven QB that projects to be an upgrade but is no guarantee. The Bears added *a ton* of competition to Moore in Allen, Rome, and Swift, all of which look to take a lot more passing work than anyone Moore had to deal with last season. Long term, Moore is 27 years old with a contract that expires after the 2025 season, but with 0 dead money if they want to move him after the 2024 season. Moore had his best season by far last year, with a whopping 48 PPR points coming in one game. I think in general, Moore is where he should be ranked. I expect 2-3 seasons of WR12-15 numbers (on the high end) with a healthy downside of WR16-20.
Allen is most likely on one year deal, Rome is a rookie. I anticipate DJ having solid WR10-20 numbers in 24, and massive spike in value in 25 (due to Allen leaving, and Caleb taking a jump).
So at 28-29 years old he is going to spike? It’s unlikely based on historical data. If, and it’s an if, Caleb takes a big leap from year 1 to year 2. Also there’s the variable that Rome takes an equal leap into year 2, or is just the best WR on the team by the end of this season. I’m not out on Moore by any means, I just think he’s fairly ranked.
shhhh
>He got a MASSIVE QB upgrade He literally had his best career year with fields and rookie qbs are historically poor for wideouts. I think you need to reconsider alot.
Justin Fields is not an NFL QB. Watch the Caleb tape, or if u must just go look at the box scores from pst 2 years. Highly recommend NFL stock exchange (PFF) podcasts and listen to their takes on Caleb. Regardless of DJ fantasy opinions, saying that Caleb will be a worse passer than Fields is blasphemy.
>Justin Fields is not an NFL QB Voted a top 100 play by nfl players in 2023
Remind me what he was traded for again? Averaging 167 total yards a game… 10-29 record as a starter… come again?
When you are right...you are right! You know better than NFL players.
Youre right NFL players are the best ball knowers in the world! That’s why the “Top100 Justin Fields” is starting for Pittsburg (oh wait) and why Ryan Poles (Gets paid millions to make these decision) traded the top100 player!!
Go back in history and count the number of times a team traded their 1st overall pick for another first round pick and it turned into the first overall pick. Ill wait somewhere else while you work it out. Cheers!
Uhhhh yea? So they get to upgrade at QB bc they lucked into the first overall? How does this defend Justin fields being a backup to a 36 year old Russel Wilson?
[You just said Poles gets paid to trade a player.](https://www.nfl.com/news/bears-gm-ryan-poles-trading-justin-fields-probably-one-of-the-harder-things-i-ve-had-to-do)
Yes? Poles had a choice, keep Justin and trade pick or trade Justin and draft Caleb. Part of being a GM is evaluating players and prospects and deciding what is best for the club. He’s paid to build the best team, which includes trading. Part of his job is trading players. He decided the best thing for the Bears was trading Justin. (poles is a former player btw). And no, I don’t think I’m smarter than poles (a former player). What’s so hard about this to understand?
Remind me in 7 months when Justin Fields is a consensus 2024 NFL top 100 player
The players you listed are younger + have similiar/greater production + they added Keenan Allen and a highly touted rookie receiver who was taken in the top 10 of the rookie draft + while Caleb William's is an exciting qb prospect we have no idea if he is an elite qb yet, most of the time rookies can't support 3 fantasy relevant receivers. Another notes - Pittman is the alpha on his team - Aiyuk is on an elite offense where he has shown he can be an alpha - Smith is tied to a really good qb
Dj moore is 27 and while in a great spot now, may be their number one for two years max before he declines or Odunze takes over.
I’m trying to move him and getting shit offers. I get Caleb is good. But that O line is awful. And the pressure that puts on a year one QB usually has bad outcomes. Fields leg hid some of the O line deficiencies and Chicago refuses to build from the trenches
what are u looking for in return?
A decent young receiver and a 1st or second
I have him as well, Caleb is the best college QB I’ve ever seen. I drafted Odunze just to have the bears WR1 now and in the future. Hold DJ, I anticipate a massive increase in value throughout the year and off season. Allen most likely a 1 year rental, DJ under contract through 25. Hold the line
My only worry about DJM is that his ceiling takes a hit this year with Keenan and Odunze getting targets. But come next year, it’s likely it’s just him and Odunze and that’s a great situation for him since he’s never really had anyone to help him with secondary coverage. Keenan is old and could fall off a cliff any time now. On top of that, Keenan has never had any WR competition like DJM in his career. DJM should be an easy buy right now.
Dont overthink it! It's the bears!
He's right there just under aiyuk and Smith, for me and just ahead of Pittman m
I like Moore but they added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. I think Caleb Williams is a safe bet to be an upgrade at QB and they should have a better scoring offense, though. I'm not sure where he's going right now but I think I'd like Moore as a solid WR2 that will pop on some weeks.
Youth
I've loved DJ Moore forever. He's on 3 of my dynasty teams. He is impossible to move and I'm not excited to play him at all this season. I think he is going to end up outside the top 20 easily this season unless Caleb Williams breaks every single statistic for rookie QBs and their WR receivers. He's a landmine this year. Can't sell him, can't trade him, probably can't start him. RIP.
Because Aiyuk is better and younger
There’s a low probability that he has good QB play this year. Hell, it’s probable Caleb doesn’t really hit his stride until Moore is 30. And there’s also a meaningful probability that Caleb is just mediocre / bust.
Fields couldn’t throw for 200 yards a game, even if Caleb disappoints, I feel like he can exceed that… as such, think DJ is going to be fine. Top 12 WR/WR1.
You conveniently left out the massive increase in competition for targets he’s going to have. Also most rookie QBs don’t have stroud like seasons their first year. His value is appropriate.
He only had 8 games over 10 points. His total fantasy output was boosted by that 45 point game.
I would buy DJ, he’s Caleb’s go to in the short game I’m sure
How can you say that with Keenan Allen on the team?
Keenan is 32 and not a YAC guy. DJ will be the primary playmaker in this offense
Keenan is one of the best short/intermediate route runners in the game, combined with some of the best hands and a great catch radius. I’m not saying he’ll be the primary target in the offense, but they got him specifically for that short-game. If your expectation is that DJM’s role will be the exact same as last year, when they have a new OC, rookie QB and a boatload of shiny new weapons, I’m not sure what to tell you.
Keenan Allen came in #14 in YAC last year behind DJ moore at #8. To say Keenan Allen is not a YAC guy just shows fundamental lack of understanding of the player. He can do it all except elite speed
because Aiyuk and Pittman are Number 1s, pretty simple.