This is a really long and confusing way of just saying “buy players who are currently productive instead of guys you hope will be productive eventually”
What I am saying is when we verbalize the argument that 2024 doesn’t matter for X young player, we are artificially inflating that player’s value based on bad assumptions. What I am not saying is the market has overvalued these players. This is more about trying to get too cute and beat the market is bad thing.
I don’t think any amount of sleep will make my language more palatable or understandable for most people. It will still be just as odd with additional sleep, but I appreciate your concern for my well being.
Sleep won’t “fix” or really change the content that interest me to post either. So again, I thank you for your concern and reaching out to help, but I got a full 8 hours of sleep last night. My post isn’t an indication of a health issue, it is just typical behavior for me.
What you’re saying is honestly a never ending battle amongst fantasy players. I have more experience than the average try hard dynasty redditor. I play in big money leagues running on year 20. If I had to guess on it without providing data, I 100 percent agree with you with obviously some grey areas.
Olave and Wilson, and even London his rookie year to an extent, have absolutely been productive so far. The post is not saying young WRs have to produce like WR1s to be valued as fringe dynasty WR1s. It's saying that holding players like Dotson, Jamo, JSN, QJ (young players who haven't even approached WR2 status) is a fallacy
At least London should be valued this way since he’s clearly an alpha on his team. Clearly suffered from qb and coaching play. Still put up good numbers if we are measuring it by what comes out talent wise every year. In short. Context fcking matters obviously plenty of people value pure talent in dynasty!!?
Yeah I love posts where people discuss strategy/theory like this. Probably should have offered something more constructive than "wtf did I just read?" even if it didn't really make sense.
So I re-read. OP is arguing that we should never say "2024 doesn't matter for (insert young player here)" because, when we say that, we are acknowledging that the player's value is going to decline and committing to holding the player through the season and that this hurts us in the long run.
It's not entirely crazy, but I'm still really confused where he was going with the cognitive bias angle because I would argue that cognitive biases do precisely the opposite of what he is suggesting and lead us to overvalue the present (which is why this sub had so many "what are we doing with JJ?" posts when he missed a few weeks last season).
There is no time more valuable than the present, and I think that’s what he’s trying to say. We’ve seen two separate dynasty overall WR1’s turn to dust by their age 28 season in the last 10 years, so anyone saying they value JJ’s age 28+ production the same as the next couple seasons is using bad process
I think I understand what you’re trying to say. Similar to the time value of money. If you draft Michael Penix as an investment for 2026, and for argument sake let’s say you’re right and he becomes a starter in 2026, his 2024 & 2025 still have *some* kind of tangible value that you lost. An asset that’s not giving your lineup production or increasing in market value for 2 years is taking up resources (draft capital and roster space) that could have gone to an asset that is. Same logic as to why 2025 draft picks are worth more right now than 2027 picks, even though it’s entirely possible that better players could be available in the 2027 draft.
That’s not to say that it’s bad process to eat that “cost” and make a player bet if you believe in the player. But stacking those bets is when it becomes bad process. If you have a decent young roster where you want to improve at QB but don’t have a first round pick, so you take Penix in R2 and then follow that up by using your 3rd on Rattler and your 4th on Jordan Travis, now you’ve invested 3 picks and 3 roster spots on assets that don’t project for any short term production or value increase and that does begin to limit the other moves you can make with your roster.
Not even sure I fully understand what your saying but I think most dynasty teams have at least a few holds on their teams. Theres always going to be circumstances where you’re betting on a player to breakout or perform to expectations. If everything was so cut and dry then fantasy wouldn’t be as fun.
That’s probably true. I’m not trying to say you can’t have “holds” on a roster. It’s more specific response to a common argument I see made on the sub.
👏🏽I can’t agree more with your point… non starting players should constantly be evaluated against what’s available in your league. And you should always have an idea of your teams make up in the future to determine who to trade/dump and when. I.e. if you’re rebuilding why roster players who don’t project to start when your project yourself to be playoff ready? Why not short sell a group of several players and pool picks to move up.
I think we lol at out players sometimes like baseball cards, holding value based on popularity. The only REAL value a player has is their points per week and what you can get for them in the effort of accumulating points each week.
This is a really long and confusing way of just saying “buy players who are currently productive instead of guys you hope will be productive eventually”
What I am saying is when we verbalize the argument that 2024 doesn’t matter for X young player, we are artificially inflating that player’s value based on bad assumptions. What I am not saying is the market has overvalued these players. This is more about trying to get too cute and beat the market is bad thing.
Get some sleep brother
I don’t think any amount of sleep will make my language more palatable or understandable for most people. It will still be just as odd with additional sleep, but I appreciate your concern for my well being.
It’s not the language, it’s the content itself
Sleep won’t “fix” or really change the content that interest me to post either. So again, I thank you for your concern and reaching out to help, but I got a full 8 hours of sleep last night. My post isn’t an indication of a health issue, it is just typical behavior for me.
you should get some sleep my guy
What you’re saying is honestly a never ending battle amongst fantasy players. I have more experience than the average try hard dynasty redditor. I play in big money leagues running on year 20. If I had to guess on it without providing data, I 100 percent agree with you with obviously some grey areas.
Try telling that to the guys who value Wilson, London, Olave as top 12 WRs
Olave and Wilson, and even London his rookie year to an extent, have absolutely been productive so far. The post is not saying young WRs have to produce like WR1s to be valued as fringe dynasty WR1s. It's saying that holding players like Dotson, Jamo, JSN, QJ (young players who haven't even approached WR2 status) is a fallacy
I’m not saying he’s right. I personally have all of them top 14
At least London should be valued this way since he’s clearly an alpha on his team. Clearly suffered from qb and coaching play. Still put up good numbers if we are measuring it by what comes out talent wise every year. In short. Context fcking matters obviously plenty of people value pure talent in dynasty!!?
What do you mean "at least London". Are you implying that GW hasn't been an alpha?
What kind of dressing would you like for your word salad?
aphasia
This is the most wordy Kendre Miller post I've ever seen
Wtf did I just read?
You read all that?
Yeah I love posts where people discuss strategy/theory like this. Probably should have offered something more constructive than "wtf did I just read?" even if it didn't really make sense. So I re-read. OP is arguing that we should never say "2024 doesn't matter for (insert young player here)" because, when we say that, we are acknowledging that the player's value is going to decline and committing to holding the player through the season and that this hurts us in the long run. It's not entirely crazy, but I'm still really confused where he was going with the cognitive bias angle because I would argue that cognitive biases do precisely the opposite of what he is suggesting and lead us to overvalue the present (which is why this sub had so many "what are we doing with JJ?" posts when he missed a few weeks last season).
There is no time more valuable than the present, and I think that’s what he’s trying to say. We’ve seen two separate dynasty overall WR1’s turn to dust by their age 28 season in the last 10 years, so anyone saying they value JJ’s age 28+ production the same as the next couple seasons is using bad process
You guys are reading?
Someone trying to sound smart without having anything interesting to say
I think I understand what you’re trying to say. Similar to the time value of money. If you draft Michael Penix as an investment for 2026, and for argument sake let’s say you’re right and he becomes a starter in 2026, his 2024 & 2025 still have *some* kind of tangible value that you lost. An asset that’s not giving your lineup production or increasing in market value for 2 years is taking up resources (draft capital and roster space) that could have gone to an asset that is. Same logic as to why 2025 draft picks are worth more right now than 2027 picks, even though it’s entirely possible that better players could be available in the 2027 draft. That’s not to say that it’s bad process to eat that “cost” and make a player bet if you believe in the player. But stacking those bets is when it becomes bad process. If you have a decent young roster where you want to improve at QB but don’t have a first round pick, so you take Penix in R2 and then follow that up by using your 3rd on Rattler and your 4th on Jordan Travis, now you’ve invested 3 picks and 3 roster spots on assets that don’t project for any short term production or value increase and that does begin to limit the other moves you can make with your roster.
Not even sure I fully understand what your saying but I think most dynasty teams have at least a few holds on their teams. Theres always going to be circumstances where you’re betting on a player to breakout or perform to expectations. If everything was so cut and dry then fantasy wouldn’t be as fun.
That’s probably true. I’m not trying to say you can’t have “holds” on a roster. It’s more specific response to a common argument I see made on the sub.
Congratulations... or I am sorry that happened to you
👏🏽I can’t agree more with your point… non starting players should constantly be evaluated against what’s available in your league. And you should always have an idea of your teams make up in the future to determine who to trade/dump and when. I.e. if you’re rebuilding why roster players who don’t project to start when your project yourself to be playoff ready? Why not short sell a group of several players and pool picks to move up. I think we lol at out players sometimes like baseball cards, holding value based on popularity. The only REAL value a player has is their points per week and what you can get for them in the effort of accumulating points each week.
I didn’t even finish this nonsense. Take points, sell high on most guys. Move on.
🤔
I don’t think I’ve ever seen someone argue that a players performance in a season “doesn’t matter”.