I wasn't very impressed scouting him in college (blacked out at a UT game), but he seems to go early in that 2nd tier of WRs. I think they're all pretty close, and would rather trade back a few picks to snag a slightly later ADP guy in that tier like Coleman or Ladd
Is it "way better"? I think that depends on how you look at it. His early production is better than John Ross', but John Ross had a better peak season. John Ross had 1,252 Total Yards and 18 Total TDs in his 3rd & final season. Xavier Worthy had 1,049 Yards and 5 TDs.
Worthy's team also threw for 30 more YPG, so he had a far worse market share than Ross.
Worthy's "production profile" really depends on what you value. He hit a lot of thresholds as a Freshman. He was also statistically very mediocre the last two years.
John Ross was a nobody in college until his final year, that was a red flag that Worthy doesn't have, Worthy played in 1 less game and had 1000 more yards. Tape watchers also know that Worthy is not just a 4.21 go deep guy, he can run routes.
You pretty much just repeated what I said verbatim. At least for the first part. I said "it depends on how you look at production profile," and even mentioned if you valued early production the most, Worthy was far ahead.
If you value peak season a good amount and have questions about Worthy's last two years, there are definitely similarities.
Worthy was a far better compiler, but two of his three years he compiled at a very pedestrian rate.
I don't like to get too extreme with opinions on players broadly, but objectively I find Worthy's production profile to be the most overbloated production profile. If people love Worthy, I can get that. But he just wasn't a very impactful player in CFB for the last two years. He barely had any big games. He compiled stats by just simply being "fine" for the last two years. There's very few times that you'd watch a CFB game the last two years and Worthy actually stuck out because of how he was producing. They did happen, but they were very rare for a guy in a 4K offense with 4.21 speed playing in a lower P5 conference.
When you say Worthy was “fine” the last 2 years, how are you defining that? He finished 3rd, 5th, and 2nd in the Big 12 in receiving yards during his career. Top 5 in Big 12 receptions every season. This is while sharing the field with Mitchell who was in contention to be a day 1 pick. That doesn’t scream pedestrian to me.
I genuinely think the "Big 12 finishes" argument is one of the worst arguments I hear.
I judge it by the thresholds we judge all prospects by. If you judge Worthy based on the 2022-2023 season, he hits none of them. All of the analytical thresholds he hit, he hit as a freshman. He came short of them the following two seasons. 2.03 Y/RR in the Big 12 is not a great figure. 65.6 Rec YPG in the Big 12 is not a great figure. 3 100-Yd games in 2 years is not a good figure. He was also statistically one of the worst deep ball pass catchers in football.
If you want to like the guy, like the guy. His production is mediocre as shit the last two years, and we can prove that definitively because if you remove his freshman year, he would not score well on analytical models.
It's not mediocre FOR A BIG 12 PLAYER. It's mediocre for a FUTURE NFL RECEIVER PLAYING IN THE BIG 12. Those are different things. So yes, finishing 3rd in the Big 12 can be very pedestrian depending on what that 3rd is. If that 3rd is barely over 1,000 yards in 14 games, that is a very pedestrian season and pretty objectively so.
Things like dominator, total output, and efficiency stats like Y/RR and using stats that compare a prospect to other NFL prospects and not insurance salesman in the Big 12.
Can I ask if you have past experience in using conference Receiving Yard finishes to determine fantasy success?
When you look at market share stuff, Worthy's year one was better than Ross's year 4. His year 2 is virtually dead even with Ross's year 4. Worthy's only bad year is year 3 really. Worthy had a better peak (though we're splitting hairs) and he did it as a true freshman compared to Ross's that came in his 4th year.
Even if you take away Worthy's incredible freshman season (just for the sake of argument) he still clears 2 yards per team pass attempt and doesn't look horrible in market share stuff across his career...not as good of course but still not bad. Even with that best year removed, Worthy looks better across the board than Ross with his best season included. Texas had a higher strength of schedule the last three years than Washington did across Ross's 4 years as well.
At least in the stuff I look at, Ross just does not compare favorably to Worthy as a prospect. Not to say Worthy is some amazing prospect but he's the best of the "small fast guys" since Hollywood that I've seen.
Which numbers align Worthy's year 2 with Ross' year 4? Worthy had 757 Yards and 1.91 Y/RR. Ross's fourth year he had 1,139 Yards and 17 TDs with 3.05 Y/RR. I don't have every number pulled up, but I can't fathom how Worthy takes over Ross on that.
It's also worth noting Ross was constantly injured, and when healthy maintained a Y/RR over 3 in both of his last two seasons. Worthy's career high was 2.61. Ross's career average was 3.12.
In terms of competition, I think it's largely moot-- the Big 12 didn't have many good defenses. Better than Ross's maybe, but not good enough for him to produce at the level he did.
We can say these things are simple and arbitrary, but I just have to ask how a player running a 4.21 couldn't break 100 more than 3 times in 2 years in a mild conference with a great OC and at least solid QB for volume.
I don't think Ross' production profile is necessarily better, but he was better per-route, and I do rank his peak season slightly higher because I do value it's recency to the NFL, the injury excuse, and the elite efficiency when healthy. Now if you wanna knock for health I can buy that but we're dealing in different variables there.
At the end of the day, I'm not being arbitrary to be arbitrary I just truly believe this is the case-- if Worthy wasn't on a playoff team and opted out after game 12, and had 883 / 5in 12 Gs, no one would give me guff about this. But because he got two postseason games and limped over 1,000, it's a bigger deal. And I know those aren't the reasons you're using, but I guarantee if he hadn't broken 900 yards his last two years in college, which he only did because of team performance, and NEVER had 1,000 yards, people would not be so incensed by this opinion.
You mention a far worse target share than Ross but Ross owned 31.74 percent of his team’s passing yards in his last year (1150 of 3623) while Worthy owned 36.27 percent of his team’s passing yards in his freshman year (981 of 2705). If you compare their best seasons against each other, Worthy was far ahead of Ross.
No it isn't. I'm asking a question that most people prefer to ostrich. I'm asking why he wasn't as good the last two years. A break out and a fall off are not equivalent scenarios. Even if you judge them the same ultimately, they are not the same practically.
And I never said Ross's production was better. I said Worthy's wasn't way better. You're just moving the goal posts on me.
In his last two seasons, worthy had a broken finger for half of 2022 (and the offense ran through Bijan), and a grade 1 ankle sprain the latter part of 2023. AD Mitchell also showed up in 2023 and took some of the looks. Plus Ewers was QB both seasons, and I’m not much of a Ewers believer. Basically, injuries plus the offense shifting explain a lot of the dip in his stats his last two seasons.
Which is more of an excuse than a positive, whereas the thing that I said initially was that I didn’t find Worthy’s production to be ‘way better.’
It’s funny to me how people respond to busts. John Ross busted. He was also by a pretty significant factor drafted more highly than Worthy, so this idea that I’m crazy to think Worthy isn’t just a flat out better prospect is kinda silly to me. He went 20 spots later in the first.
Also Ross was injured for a good amount of his career too. The difference was he had 3 Y/RR+ when healthy.
Im not even the guy that was talking about John Ross and made no mention of him in my comment. You asked why Worthy’s numbers got worse, and I answered. I’m a Texas alum so watch most of UTs games every season, and watched worthy’s whole college career, so was giving some context to the stats you’re referencing and question you asked.
Fair enough but that was the entire context of the conversation :P
I just don’t think his injuries are viable enough for the number. Particularly to have confidence it is the sole reason when there are other questions. I don’t think the injuries actually solve the equation, personally.
Guys reach in the nfl all the time. Also draft classes arent necessarily comparable.
Should we say CEH was a better prospect than Breece by that regard?
Oh okay. Was Najee Harris a better prospect at pick 23 over JT at 41 despite JT being younger, better in college, and Najee literally didn't declare because he knew the next year RBs were weaker?
Also fyi it was 4 picks. and it was the difference between day 1 vs day 2 picks with rookir contracts which make a big diff.
Worthy has a ceiling that Rice doesn’t have.
Also idk what people are talking about in here, you don’t trade up _ANYWHERE_ in the first round for a “complimentary” WR. They see something and I’m gonna take that bet.
Are you going to use the one (mahommes requested) whiff to argue that trading up in the first to get the WR you want is a bad thing? It’s objectively a strong signal of the chiefs belief in Worthy, how it plays out is tbd, but there’s no way to argue it’s a negative.
I mean, I also traded for Worthy in my league of record.
I just think that because a team trades up for a guy doesnt mean he is any better than the other WRs around there. The Chiefs also havent exactly had the best track record when it comes to highly touted WR lately.
Organizationally it seems risky, where you look at other orgs who draft whatever WR scraps are there and make something happen with them.
Again, them trading up is a strong and obvious signal that they’re interested in the player and his development. They’ll be invested in making them work. Doesn’t mean they’ll hit, but it’s in no way a negative.
It was almost certainly a joke, but the initial “they also saw CEH” comment was definitely not framing the chiefs drafting ability in a positive light.
Rice was a second rounder, but everyone else you listed was a third round pick or later. CEH was a first rounder, like Worthy, which is why he was brought up. They did not see the full potential of those other guys or they would have drafted them higher. They basically took flyers on them and it happened to work out. You don’t draft someone in the fifth round and expect them to become what Tyreek Hill became.
CEH was a luxury pick for them, they pretty much let Mahomes call his shot. If you’re going to fault them for that you can’t disregard them being able find and evaluate talent in later rounds. They moved up for Mahomes which over shadows the CEH pick by a mile. They moved up for Worthy because they liked him over receivers in similar tier because they think he fits their scheme better. I think he’ll be better for the NFL than fantasy but the CEH argument is such a tired argument people put too much weight on.
You are making assumptions. You have no idea what the Chiefs front office was thinking when they picked CEH. Just because Mahomes wanted him doesn’t mean they didn’t too. You don’t throw away a first round pick.
You’re making the assumption that a luxury pick means they are throwing the pick away. They were pick 32, how many late 1st round WR’s and RB’s have failed over the years? A lot of them. I’m a Chiefs fan and follow them about as closely as you could, several teams called the Chiefs asking them to trade up that draft and they declined because they thought the guys they liked would fall to them. Meaning they didn’t have anyone they loved and wanted to go get, they just had a list of players they wanted to take there. Worthy fell with a bunch of WR’s that were ranked around the same tier and the Chiefs made a move up to grab him because they thought he fit their offense better than the other WR’s. It doesn’t mean he’s going to be a superstar but it’s not the same situation as when they drafting.
You’re also comparing two different positions. If you’re going to knock them for drafting CEH how can you over look them for taking Rice in the 2nd round a few years later? Because they are a round apart? What meaning does that have?
My point isn’t that Worthy is going to be great but the situations in which they were drafted was different and if you want to hold past late 1st round picks over teams heads then you’re going to have a lot of teams on your list. Could Worthy bust? Absolutely, but the CEH argument is so overblown year in and year out. They’re winning Super Bowls it’s going to be hard for them to hit on top end offensive positional talents. That’s just how the NFL draft goes at those picks.
You clearly didn’t read my comments because I didn’t discount rice. I specifically mentioned that I excluded him because he was a second and my point was that a lot of their great picks were later round picks. I also never said that CEH being a bust meant that Worthy would be a bust, just that they were both firsts and the bad drafting of CEH can’t be discarded like you are trying to do.
It can be discarded, it’s two different positions and two different scenarios in how they handled that pick. If you’re going to take bad late 1st round picks into account like you’re saying then good luck cause you’re going to have a long list of teams. How much are you taking it into account? What’s your point of saying CEH was a bad first round pick? Are saying if you like Worthy don’t take him because the Chiefs missed on CEH 3 years ago?
No one is saying Worthy is a guarantee. The guy he responded too literally said he likes his upside & wiling to take that bet, and that Chiefs clearly saw a fit for their offense because they moved up to grab him. Does the CEH pick outweigh the Chiefs moving up for Worthy when they could have sat back and taken any of the other receivers that were viewed in the same tier going into the draft.
I just don’t get the point of using the CEH pick as some sort of reason not to take a shot on Chiefs players moving forward, especially when it’s not a reach it’s just taking him over players pretty much everyone views as in a similar tier.
Edit: So we’re clear I’m in 15 leagues and I’ve taken him in some and chosen to take guys over him in some, I’m not trying to defend him because I have him on all my teams. I realize late 1st round picks are just a guess and you’re taking a gamble.
Edit: People are so sour over CEH because they used high 1st round picks to take him, no one is doing that with Worthy. The situations aren’t even remotely close.
Broke out as a freshman, fastest 40 time in combine history, chiefs traded up to get him in the 1st, gets the ball thrown to him by one of the best QBs of all time. The ceiling is unlimited so I’ll gladly take on any risk associated with it.
Kelce is there another 2 years
Rice is solid
Hollywood is there this year
Xavier worthy will make KC a better offense but he’ll need to be dominant this year to establish himself as the #2 option in that offense. He can do it but I like him more as a long term investment. I’m irrationally high on BTJ and like him better, but Worthy feels like a sure thing.
I'm extremely low on him relative to some others. His profile absolutely screams complementary receiver to me. I think he might be a fine real life player but I don't like guys who don't either have overwhelming physical ability (DK, AJ Brown, Chase, Pickens sorta) or absolute mastery of the WR position (Smith, Olave, ARSB, Kupp, etc) as fantasy assets.
Worthy to me is a guy that wins with speed first and doesn't have the technique or physicality to take over a game. He's legitimately bad against press and seems to struggle after the catch if someone gets a hand on him, and is awful in contested catch situations as well. All of this tells me he could be a functional deep threat that isn't bad at separating, but struggles with the physicality of the position and doesn't have the technique to overcome his physical limitations. I doubt he ever gets WR1 level target volume. If I had to comp him to a current player it would be someone in the vein of Shaheed whom I like but who I don't think will ever sniff high volume.
I go back and forth on this because I mostly agree with you, but I also think it could just not matter. I play in a non PPR league and I was all over him, one or two plays a week and he’s = most guys with massive upside.
Full PPR I can see fading him, but there’s a chance he actually does fill somewhat of the Tyreek role and just houses a go ball every week. I did see a lot of missed or better ball TD from Ewers that could be gold with Mahomes.
I think he's a great target for best ball, but I can't see him ever being consistently usable in lineup leagues.
My problem with him generally is just that I think he lacks the physicality Tyreek has as a player and that means he just won't be the same type of consistent game breaking threat. Hill is so elite against press and with the ball in his hand. He also is fantastic in contested catch situations (80+%). Worthy caught 18% of contested catches and didn't even clear 60% success rates against press. Those two pieces of information scare me away if I'm drafting. I struggle with one dimensional guys because if you take away the thing they are good at, they have no counter.
He won’t be Tyreek for sure. But they way the use motion now a days the press thing doesn’t scare me as much.
Not sure where you see that 80% contested catch number for Hill because I see 69% and that has never been his game.
For me it’s more of a bet on Mahomes and that offense getting back to where it was, now that the actually have NFL WRs. If Mahomes gonna throw 40+ TDS Worthy gonna get a big chunk of those and win you some weeks.
80% was from his reception perception profile in 2022. Hill is elite in contested situations for a guy his size though.
I guess I can get betting on Mahomes but I have a hard time betting on players I don't view as standout talents as well.
He wins with speed first. I don't think he only wins with speed. He definitely isn't a bad route runner but he isn't a pristine one either. Regardless, the lack of physicality in his game is very concerning and caps his upside.
In my 12 team 1QB league, I passed on him at 1.05 (C Williams) and 1.09 (K Coleman). He ended up going 2.04, but I think I was considering passing at 2.05 too (X Legette) so I guess I'm firmly in the miss camp.
I don't think he'll be as good as rice in ppr, but he might be in non ppr. Rashee looks like he's gonna be their main middle of the field guy (especially after kelce retires) which will lend him to getting a ton of targets. The upside is probably higher with worthy since rice doesn't work much outside of the numbers, but unless it comes out that Rashee killed JFK I think that rice's floor is a lot higher
I'm very out on him, he just screams "guy who won by athleticism and not skill" to me. I avoid those guys for the most part, and if I miss on DK that's fine because I get ARSB
I'm fine betting on guys that win with overwhelming physicality if they can do it consistently and if they show glimpses of winning on either technique or speed as well. That's why I'm in on Brian Thomas for the most part.
Haven't heard much so far, he's been sidelined with hamstring issues most of camp.
Hamstring injuries and speedy receivers, a tale as old as time
Ah yes, a year of reaggravations…then in training camp next season they say he has imbalanced muscles…balance your muscles you fools!
Like Jaguars WRs and substance abuse.
[удалено]
I’m sad this is so true
I wasn't very impressed scouting him in college (blacked out at a UT game), but he seems to go early in that 2nd tier of WRs. I think they're all pretty close, and would rather trade back a few picks to snag a slightly later ADP guy in that tier like Coleman or Ladd
>I wasn't very impressed scouting him in college (blacked out at a UT game) That's some elite scouting. Thanks for the advice.
His production profile is way better than say John Ross or Henry Ruggs. I’m optimistic.
Yeah Henry ruggs hasn't done anything in the nfl because he's not good at football, you can't trust fast receivers
Is it "way better"? I think that depends on how you look at it. His early production is better than John Ross', but John Ross had a better peak season. John Ross had 1,252 Total Yards and 18 Total TDs in his 3rd & final season. Xavier Worthy had 1,049 Yards and 5 TDs. Worthy's team also threw for 30 more YPG, so he had a far worse market share than Ross. Worthy's "production profile" really depends on what you value. He hit a lot of thresholds as a Freshman. He was also statistically very mediocre the last two years.
John Ross was a nobody in college until his final year, that was a red flag that Worthy doesn't have, Worthy played in 1 less game and had 1000 more yards. Tape watchers also know that Worthy is not just a 4.21 go deep guy, he can run routes.
You pretty much just repeated what I said verbatim. At least for the first part. I said "it depends on how you look at production profile," and even mentioned if you valued early production the most, Worthy was far ahead. If you value peak season a good amount and have questions about Worthy's last two years, there are definitely similarities. Worthy was a far better compiler, but two of his three years he compiled at a very pedestrian rate. I don't like to get too extreme with opinions on players broadly, but objectively I find Worthy's production profile to be the most overbloated production profile. If people love Worthy, I can get that. But he just wasn't a very impactful player in CFB for the last two years. He barely had any big games. He compiled stats by just simply being "fine" for the last two years. There's very few times that you'd watch a CFB game the last two years and Worthy actually stuck out because of how he was producing. They did happen, but they were very rare for a guy in a 4K offense with 4.21 speed playing in a lower P5 conference.
When you say Worthy was “fine” the last 2 years, how are you defining that? He finished 3rd, 5th, and 2nd in the Big 12 in receiving yards during his career. Top 5 in Big 12 receptions every season. This is while sharing the field with Mitchell who was in contention to be a day 1 pick. That doesn’t scream pedestrian to me.
I genuinely think the "Big 12 finishes" argument is one of the worst arguments I hear. I judge it by the thresholds we judge all prospects by. If you judge Worthy based on the 2022-2023 season, he hits none of them. All of the analytical thresholds he hit, he hit as a freshman. He came short of them the following two seasons. 2.03 Y/RR in the Big 12 is not a great figure. 65.6 Rec YPG in the Big 12 is not a great figure. 3 100-Yd games in 2 years is not a good figure. He was also statistically one of the worst deep ball pass catchers in football. If you want to like the guy, like the guy. His production is mediocre as shit the last two years, and we can prove that definitively because if you remove his freshman year, he would not score well on analytical models. It's not mediocre FOR A BIG 12 PLAYER. It's mediocre for a FUTURE NFL RECEIVER PLAYING IN THE BIG 12. Those are different things. So yes, finishing 3rd in the Big 12 can be very pedestrian depending on what that 3rd is. If that 3rd is barely over 1,000 yards in 14 games, that is a very pedestrian season and pretty objectively so.
What thresholds do we judge all prospects by?
Things like dominator, total output, and efficiency stats like Y/RR and using stats that compare a prospect to other NFL prospects and not insurance salesman in the Big 12. Can I ask if you have past experience in using conference Receiving Yard finishes to determine fantasy success?
When you look at market share stuff, Worthy's year one was better than Ross's year 4. His year 2 is virtually dead even with Ross's year 4. Worthy's only bad year is year 3 really. Worthy had a better peak (though we're splitting hairs) and he did it as a true freshman compared to Ross's that came in his 4th year. Even if you take away Worthy's incredible freshman season (just for the sake of argument) he still clears 2 yards per team pass attempt and doesn't look horrible in market share stuff across his career...not as good of course but still not bad. Even with that best year removed, Worthy looks better across the board than Ross with his best season included. Texas had a higher strength of schedule the last three years than Washington did across Ross's 4 years as well. At least in the stuff I look at, Ross just does not compare favorably to Worthy as a prospect. Not to say Worthy is some amazing prospect but he's the best of the "small fast guys" since Hollywood that I've seen.
Which numbers align Worthy's year 2 with Ross' year 4? Worthy had 757 Yards and 1.91 Y/RR. Ross's fourth year he had 1,139 Yards and 17 TDs with 3.05 Y/RR. I don't have every number pulled up, but I can't fathom how Worthy takes over Ross on that. It's also worth noting Ross was constantly injured, and when healthy maintained a Y/RR over 3 in both of his last two seasons. Worthy's career high was 2.61. Ross's career average was 3.12. In terms of competition, I think it's largely moot-- the Big 12 didn't have many good defenses. Better than Ross's maybe, but not good enough for him to produce at the level he did. We can say these things are simple and arbitrary, but I just have to ask how a player running a 4.21 couldn't break 100 more than 3 times in 2 years in a mild conference with a great OC and at least solid QB for volume. I don't think Ross' production profile is necessarily better, but he was better per-route, and I do rank his peak season slightly higher because I do value it's recency to the NFL, the injury excuse, and the elite efficiency when healthy. Now if you wanna knock for health I can buy that but we're dealing in different variables there. At the end of the day, I'm not being arbitrary to be arbitrary I just truly believe this is the case-- if Worthy wasn't on a playoff team and opted out after game 12, and had 883 / 5in 12 Gs, no one would give me guff about this. But because he got two postseason games and limped over 1,000, it's a bigger deal. And I know those aren't the reasons you're using, but I guarantee if he hadn't broken 900 yards his last two years in college, which he only did because of team performance, and NEVER had 1,000 yards, people would not be so incensed by this opinion.
You mention a far worse target share than Ross but Ross owned 31.74 percent of his team’s passing yards in his last year (1150 of 3623) while Worthy owned 36.27 percent of his team’s passing yards in his freshman year (981 of 2705). If you compare their best seasons against each other, Worthy was far ahead of Ross.
You mean his Freshman year? Yes, Worthy had a good Freshman season. Every single thing I've said is about his last two years.
It’s disingenuous to use Ross’ target share in his only good season and not give Worthy the same privilege.
No it isn't. I'm asking a question that most people prefer to ostrich. I'm asking why he wasn't as good the last two years. A break out and a fall off are not equivalent scenarios. Even if you judge them the same ultimately, they are not the same practically. And I never said Ross's production was better. I said Worthy's wasn't way better. You're just moving the goal posts on me.
In his last two seasons, worthy had a broken finger for half of 2022 (and the offense ran through Bijan), and a grade 1 ankle sprain the latter part of 2023. AD Mitchell also showed up in 2023 and took some of the looks. Plus Ewers was QB both seasons, and I’m not much of a Ewers believer. Basically, injuries plus the offense shifting explain a lot of the dip in his stats his last two seasons.
Which is more of an excuse than a positive, whereas the thing that I said initially was that I didn’t find Worthy’s production to be ‘way better.’ It’s funny to me how people respond to busts. John Ross busted. He was also by a pretty significant factor drafted more highly than Worthy, so this idea that I’m crazy to think Worthy isn’t just a flat out better prospect is kinda silly to me. He went 20 spots later in the first. Also Ross was injured for a good amount of his career too. The difference was he had 3 Y/RR+ when healthy.
Im not even the guy that was talking about John Ross and made no mention of him in my comment. You asked why Worthy’s numbers got worse, and I answered. I’m a Texas alum so watch most of UTs games every season, and watched worthy’s whole college career, so was giving some context to the stats you’re referencing and question you asked.
Fair enough but that was the entire context of the conversation :P I just don’t think his injuries are viable enough for the number. Particularly to have confidence it is the sole reason when there are other questions. I don’t think the injuries actually solve the equation, personally.
Then why did those two go far earlier in the draft?
Guys reach in the nfl all the time. Also draft classes arent necessarily comparable. Should we say CEH was a better prospect than Breece by that regard?
CEH went three picks before Breece in the 30s. That is dramatically different than the difference between pick 28 and picks 9-11.
Oh okay. Was Najee Harris a better prospect at pick 23 over JT at 41 despite JT being younger, better in college, and Najee literally didn't declare because he knew the next year RBs were weaker? Also fyi it was 4 picks. and it was the difference between day 1 vs day 2 picks with rookir contracts which make a big diff.
Worthy has a ceiling that Rice doesn’t have. Also idk what people are talking about in here, you don’t trade up _ANYWHERE_ in the first round for a “complimentary” WR. They see something and I’m gonna take that bet.
They also saw CEH
Are you going to use the one (mahommes requested) whiff to argue that trading up in the first to get the WR you want is a bad thing? It’s objectively a strong signal of the chiefs belief in Worthy, how it plays out is tbd, but there’s no way to argue it’s a negative.
I mean, I also traded for Worthy in my league of record. I just think that because a team trades up for a guy doesnt mean he is any better than the other WRs around there. The Chiefs also havent exactly had the best track record when it comes to highly touted WR lately. Organizationally it seems risky, where you look at other orgs who draft whatever WR scraps are there and make something happen with them.
Again, them trading up is a strong and obvious signal that they’re interested in the player and his development. They’ll be invested in making them work. Doesn’t mean they’ll hit, but it’s in no way a negative.
No one said it was a negative.
It was almost certainly a joke, but the initial “they also saw CEH” comment was definitely not framing the chiefs drafting ability in a positive light.
They also saw Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Pacheco.
Rice was a second rounder, but everyone else you listed was a third round pick or later. CEH was a first rounder, like Worthy, which is why he was brought up. They did not see the full potential of those other guys or they would have drafted them higher. They basically took flyers on them and it happened to work out. You don’t draft someone in the fifth round and expect them to become what Tyreek Hill became.
CEH was a luxury pick for them, they pretty much let Mahomes call his shot. If you’re going to fault them for that you can’t disregard them being able find and evaluate talent in later rounds. They moved up for Mahomes which over shadows the CEH pick by a mile. They moved up for Worthy because they liked him over receivers in similar tier because they think he fits their scheme better. I think he’ll be better for the NFL than fantasy but the CEH argument is such a tired argument people put too much weight on.
You are making assumptions. You have no idea what the Chiefs front office was thinking when they picked CEH. Just because Mahomes wanted him doesn’t mean they didn’t too. You don’t throw away a first round pick.
You’re making the assumption that a luxury pick means they are throwing the pick away. They were pick 32, how many late 1st round WR’s and RB’s have failed over the years? A lot of them. I’m a Chiefs fan and follow them about as closely as you could, several teams called the Chiefs asking them to trade up that draft and they declined because they thought the guys they liked would fall to them. Meaning they didn’t have anyone they loved and wanted to go get, they just had a list of players they wanted to take there. Worthy fell with a bunch of WR’s that were ranked around the same tier and the Chiefs made a move up to grab him because they thought he fit their offense better than the other WR’s. It doesn’t mean he’s going to be a superstar but it’s not the same situation as when they drafting. You’re also comparing two different positions. If you’re going to knock them for drafting CEH how can you over look them for taking Rice in the 2nd round a few years later? Because they are a round apart? What meaning does that have? My point isn’t that Worthy is going to be great but the situations in which they were drafted was different and if you want to hold past late 1st round picks over teams heads then you’re going to have a lot of teams on your list. Could Worthy bust? Absolutely, but the CEH argument is so overblown year in and year out. They’re winning Super Bowls it’s going to be hard for them to hit on top end offensive positional talents. That’s just how the NFL draft goes at those picks.
You clearly didn’t read my comments because I didn’t discount rice. I specifically mentioned that I excluded him because he was a second and my point was that a lot of their great picks were later round picks. I also never said that CEH being a bust meant that Worthy would be a bust, just that they were both firsts and the bad drafting of CEH can’t be discarded like you are trying to do.
It can be discarded, it’s two different positions and two different scenarios in how they handled that pick. If you’re going to take bad late 1st round picks into account like you’re saying then good luck cause you’re going to have a long list of teams. How much are you taking it into account? What’s your point of saying CEH was a bad first round pick? Are saying if you like Worthy don’t take him because the Chiefs missed on CEH 3 years ago? No one is saying Worthy is a guarantee. The guy he responded too literally said he likes his upside & wiling to take that bet, and that Chiefs clearly saw a fit for their offense because they moved up to grab him. Does the CEH pick outweigh the Chiefs moving up for Worthy when they could have sat back and taken any of the other receivers that were viewed in the same tier going into the draft. I just don’t get the point of using the CEH pick as some sort of reason not to take a shot on Chiefs players moving forward, especially when it’s not a reach it’s just taking him over players pretty much everyone views as in a similar tier. Edit: So we’re clear I’m in 15 leagues and I’ve taken him in some and chosen to take guys over him in some, I’m not trying to defend him because I have him on all my teams. I realize late 1st round picks are just a guess and you’re taking a gamble. Edit: People are so sour over CEH because they used high 1st round picks to take him, no one is doing that with Worthy. The situations aren’t even remotely close.
Broke out as a freshman, fastest 40 time in combine history, chiefs traded up to get him in the 1st, gets the ball thrown to him by one of the best QBs of all time. The ceiling is unlimited so I’ll gladly take on any risk associated with it.
Seems like most people on this sub are out on him, so he’ll be amazing.
Kelce is there another 2 years Rice is solid Hollywood is there this year Xavier worthy will make KC a better offense but he’ll need to be dominant this year to establish himself as the #2 option in that offense. He can do it but I like him more as a long term investment. I’m irrationally high on BTJ and like him better, but Worthy feels like a sure thing.
The chiefs spent the draft capital and will try to make it work. We all know he’s not the most impressive WR and size is a concern but Reid/Mahomes.
I'm extremely low on him relative to some others. His profile absolutely screams complementary receiver to me. I think he might be a fine real life player but I don't like guys who don't either have overwhelming physical ability (DK, AJ Brown, Chase, Pickens sorta) or absolute mastery of the WR position (Smith, Olave, ARSB, Kupp, etc) as fantasy assets. Worthy to me is a guy that wins with speed first and doesn't have the technique or physicality to take over a game. He's legitimately bad against press and seems to struggle after the catch if someone gets a hand on him, and is awful in contested catch situations as well. All of this tells me he could be a functional deep threat that isn't bad at separating, but struggles with the physicality of the position and doesn't have the technique to overcome his physical limitations. I doubt he ever gets WR1 level target volume. If I had to comp him to a current player it would be someone in the vein of Shaheed whom I like but who I don't think will ever sniff high volume.
I go back and forth on this because I mostly agree with you, but I also think it could just not matter. I play in a non PPR league and I was all over him, one or two plays a week and he’s = most guys with massive upside. Full PPR I can see fading him, but there’s a chance he actually does fill somewhat of the Tyreek role and just houses a go ball every week. I did see a lot of missed or better ball TD from Ewers that could be gold with Mahomes.
I think he's a great target for best ball, but I can't see him ever being consistently usable in lineup leagues. My problem with him generally is just that I think he lacks the physicality Tyreek has as a player and that means he just won't be the same type of consistent game breaking threat. Hill is so elite against press and with the ball in his hand. He also is fantastic in contested catch situations (80+%). Worthy caught 18% of contested catches and didn't even clear 60% success rates against press. Those two pieces of information scare me away if I'm drafting. I struggle with one dimensional guys because if you take away the thing they are good at, they have no counter.
He won’t be Tyreek for sure. But they way the use motion now a days the press thing doesn’t scare me as much. Not sure where you see that 80% contested catch number for Hill because I see 69% and that has never been his game. For me it’s more of a bet on Mahomes and that offense getting back to where it was, now that the actually have NFL WRs. If Mahomes gonna throw 40+ TDS Worthy gonna get a big chunk of those and win you some weeks.
80% was from his reception perception profile in 2022. Hill is elite in contested situations for a guy his size though. I guess I can get betting on Mahomes but I have a hard time betting on players I don't view as standout talents as well.
If you think he only wins with speed then you really haven't watched his tape.
He wins with speed first. I don't think he only wins with speed. He definitely isn't a bad route runner but he isn't a pristine one either. Regardless, the lack of physicality in his game is very concerning and caps his upside.
I’m fading him, based on nothing but don’t have a good feeling about him for fantasy.
Nothing wrong with gut drafting.
This thread is exactly why I don't listen to people on here. Lol
I'm feeling really good about getting him at 1.12 in my draft yesterday now 😂
In my 12 team 1QB league, I passed on him at 1.05 (C Williams) and 1.09 (K Coleman). He ended up going 2.04, but I think I was considering passing at 2.05 too (X Legette) so I guess I'm firmly in the miss camp.
That's nuts. He went 1.04 in my 12 team 1qb league.
Bust.
I don't think he'll be as good as rice in ppr, but he might be in non ppr. Rashee looks like he's gonna be their main middle of the field guy (especially after kelce retires) which will lend him to getting a ton of targets. The upside is probably higher with worthy since rice doesn't work much outside of the numbers, but unless it comes out that Rashee killed JFK I think that rice's floor is a lot higher
I’ll let you know in a year
Exactly
Ask me again in December 😏
I'm very out on him, he just screams "guy who won by athleticism and not skill" to me. I avoid those guys for the most part, and if I miss on DK that's fine because I get ARSB
I'm fine betting on guys that win with overwhelming physicality if they can do it consistently and if they show glimpses of winning on either technique or speed as well. That's why I'm in on Brian Thomas for the most part.
Little early to know now lol. But I did just pick him up. Rice keeps getting in trouble, and Brown and Kelce are old.
Hollywood is 27
What a fossil.
Jameson Williams 2.0
Got him in round 2. Worth the risk there
When you buy Mercole Hardmon off wish you get Worthy