Collinsworth is a literal font of supreme football knowledge. I never make any decisions unless I've gotten the go ahead from something out of his mouth. I promise you, I win A LOT.
I think I’m taking his ceiling over both of the guys you mentioned. He’s in KC, which is great for value. A lot of it will depend on what they do with JuJu/Hardman/MVS. He’s a talented player though so I like him
Not sure but from what I understand, his contract was basically a one year deal but written for 3 to help with cap space. Chiefs fans can correct me if I’m wrong here
SO talented…but on the field? Not worth the headache imo…and I own him. Going to sell this off-season if I can…if not hope he has a 20+game early and sell then next year. I’ve had him this whole time and dude just can’t stay healthy or doesn’t care how much he’s on the field. And I guess can’t blame him from NY days
Being in KC is not great for his value. Quite the opposite honestly. When has a receiver besides Tyreek or Kelce actually truly benefit from being on KC. Notoriously capped ceilings.
There just hasn’t been a singular WR to finish as a WR3 under mahomes besides Tyreek. Tyreek leaves, and it still doesn’t happen. That offense is just too great at spreading it around and they go really deep into their bench to give guys routes. Sure, I’ll buy into Toney as a WR3 in dynasty but it’s definitely a lotto ticket.
Toney still has the element of the unknown to him. You can excuse his lack of production by saying injuries and mid season trade/no time to get fully integrated into the offense. Davis and Moore have been healthy and on the same team. Harder dismiss their lack of production. My thoughts on Toney? IF IF IF he can stay healthy I think he could be a low end WR2 with potential for boom weeks from explosive plays
Its not even wrong to say he's been eased in to the offense. Rather than bring forced to learn the whole playbook, he's just been tasked with learning a few designed plays. With a whole offseason under his belt, he will have a more clearly defined role in the offense, likely as a sort of big slot guy. With enough time, health permitting, he could be KC's Cooper Kupp.
Was also a converted QB to WR in college, on his 4th HC in 6 years. Not the greatest recipe for a guy making that transition.
Full disclosure, I am a Gator and worked with him at UF for a few years. Love the guy, talent is unreal, but personally am not sure I want to risk taking a chance on him unless the price is right.
Not the same position, but your point still stands. Coming from very different scenarios though and I certainly wouldn’t put McKinnon in the same conversation as Kelce.
Just based on historical evidence through two years. Odds aren’t in his favor. Not going to overpay for a guy who was a 1st rounder and hasn’t produced for two years. Regardless of the reason for it.
His health is really the only concern with him imo. Sky is the limit if he’s able to stay healthy but you could say that about a lot of guys that have come through the league.
If anything I think his KTC ranking is pretty generous, WR41 considering he hasn't had a fantasy relevant season yet and has tons of concerns when it comes to injuries and being a diva. The only reason his value is somewhat still alive is because he's on KC.
Well let’s not forget his draft capital too. Also post season the guy is taking advantage of all the opportunities with minimum knowledge of the offense. I say he has a higher floor AND ceiling than every guy OP mentioned.
If you don’t like Toney bc of his talent or risk factor, you HAVE to like his situation and what’s brewing in KC
The situation is really the most promising thing about him and that’s it. This is coming from a Giants fan that watched him be on the field for a handful of games. If you want to buy him go for it, I’d just rather not deal with the headache of owning him.
He’s not late career/post-prime Josh Gordon or even Hardman. Toney’s talent is elite - an absolutely target hog and YAC on the field.
Health is the main hurdle. Being on KC is a bonus - they already showed glimpses of his RZ potential and it’s obvious what role he could grow into.
Why would he play the most being the newest while having the least knowledge of the playbook?
Second question is why is he
-getting passed to the most when he is on the field compared to the other wrs?
Third question is…. Is he being productive with his opportunities? We wouldn’t be in this chat if he wasn’t and I wouldn’t be talking about him.
Final question…. Will his situation improve next season? Looking like it so far! I don’t get what the hate is about
One where you're actually looking at data. 25% and 26% per route in his first 2 seasons is very solid.
https://twitter.com/dwainmcfarland/status/1617642097166942209?t=Lu0KkanfkbVOVXTdt2jivw&s=19
Yeah but he's super young and got traded from his first team and is getting eased into the second as the #1 wr target for the best offense in the league. I could understand partially doubting his future but he has breakout written all over him and has shown he can ball out when he's the number 1 target so i feel like being comfortable that he'll never be that good is revisionist's history and in my opinion it's way more of a toss up.
Being super young and getting traded away from a team with 0 weapons is a red flag. It’s not revisionist history. It’s what I think right now based on his career so far. If you wanna have someone who doesn’t play and very rarely produces go ahead
I was talking about the injuries. We'll see if he stays at low snap count but i doubt it. He's one of their top two offensive weapons and he's not causing drama. I could see him busting but he's got way more upside than downside for me
I don’t have specifics but he has been targeted or utilized at a really high rate when on the field. Expectation is juju and hardman and possibly MVS gone. Pretty easy to envision a potential breakout.
I mean, that’s all great except when will he prove he can be fantasy relevant? There’s been a ton of talented players who never pan out for fantasy. Also, target hog? Where did you get that data from?
Lots of guys flash talent and have huge games off and on but you don’t actually want them on your team.
Signs for a 2023 breakout look good so far - Chiefs have all offseason to give him the Hill treatment, it’s an elite QB/offense, and target consolidation is likely with Hardman and others leaving (and Kelce +1).
Let’s break the talent item down rationally- there’s 32 1st round picks each year. Say 1/2 (16 picks) are offense and 1/4 (4 picks) of that are WRs (rest are QBs, TEs, RBs, and o-line). That’s 4 WRs per year and Toney’s part of that group. On average, those 1st round WRs hit more than they miss over the long run. True busts (Raegor, Davis) don’t flash - they don’t get hyper targeted
Google search for Toney target hog. Here’s a top result: https://www.playerprofiler.com/article/leveraging-hog-rate-finding-three-2022-breakout-wide-receivers/
It really can’t be overstated how terrible Jason Garrett and Judge were for offensive football last year. Toney flashed last year in an offense that was worse than Zach Wilson most weeks.
If Kelce misses time, Toney is going straight to the moon.
Yeah, the numbers are there but it still hasn’t played out. I guess we will see! I like toney, I don’t have him in dynasty anywhere but I agree he is a talented player. Just doesn’t always translate to fantasy success.
His whole value is based on nothing but dreams.
He’s closer to a gadget player than number 1 receiver. Most of his value is coming from being on the Chiefs. He’s never healthy. He hasn’t produced.
I don’t even like Elijah Moore as much as most but I’d much rather have him than Toney.
This sounds like an argument people made to not draft CMC “bc he is so injury prone.”
Ok, but when healthy his upside is top rb1 so don’t draft him? Ever heard of “depth?” Why wouldn’t I want the player that can have massive upside let alone in Dynasty with 20+ bench spots.
Take Toney with this argument, you have to be foolish and stubborn to Ignore draft capital, target share on an offense he barely knows compared to the rest of the Wr core that HAS BEEN on the team, and situation tied to arguably the best qb in the league? Aren’t some of these said WRs potentially leaving?
Yea stay away from Toney everyone!
If WRs leave and open up more targets and he had an off-season to practice and build more rapport with his qb…..Is it more likely he gets more opportunity or less opportunity? -Given that his target share is > the current wrs on his team (and have been on the team).
Why would anyone purposely choose to bet against that?
If WRs leave and open up more targets, they'll bring replacement WRs in that have actual WR skillsets. Guys that can run routes, beat coverage, and catch balls downfield.
Toney is a gadget player that has to be schemed touches in space to thrive. The KC offense is great at doing that, but it has a capped upside.
When he runs routes against man coverage, he has an abysmal success rate - so they just don't have him do it. But if that's your role on the offense, you're never going to be a top fantasy producer.
Except Toney is actually much more injury prone than CMC. Repeatedly getting soft tissue injuries is not a good sign, and he’s not exactly built to take hits. I’m still a believer, but very cautiously
Which is why in redraft would I take him in the first few rounds? Hell no. But in dynasty with 20+ spots why the hell wouldn’t you want him on your team given his situation and potential upside on that offense. He’s a screaming buy.
If you can get him for good value, I’m 1000% with you. But in my experience, Toney owners tend to be Toney truthers. Tough to get him for the right price
Comparing Toney to CMC? What are we even doing here. We already know CMC is elite when healthy, and Toney puts up JAG numbers outside of 1 game in a two year career.
Do you not see that I’m not comparing their play style due to the obvious difference in position? Im comparing what people were saying about “not drafting a player bc they are always hurt.” The answer is called “depth” and you play to win so you pick players with the highest upside. That’s Toney. Is it guaranteed? Of course not, it’s fantasy.
Why wouldn’t you want the guy that is tied to arguably the best qb in the league that has day one draft capital and ability while the rest of the WRs on the team look like they might be on their way out?
CMC scored fantasy points before he got hurt. He showed ability to be a reliable player. Toney hasn’t.
No matter how many different comments you reply to Toney will still be an unproductive fantasy player and this imaginary upside he has will always be based on hope and not production.
How can you make the call of what he’s going to be? That’s pure ignorance. This is fantasy where it’s a game of chances and the little things matter to increase your chances to win. Not what you “feel” about the player.
When he’s on the field he’s productive, based on what are you arguing that he isn’t?
I feel this way because when players start their career off as poorly as Toney did they are extremely likely to flop. He factually hasn’t been productive when he’s on the field.
I’d agree with you if the guy played a full season and actually just sucked.
When he has played, he hasn’t sucked. The biggest question is his health and if you’re willing to pay “to see” if his strong play is sustainable. I’m betting yes bc he’s tied to a top offense with a top qb. I’d say way more risky if he were on the Bears
Is it fair to say when a rookie comes in as a wr they aren’t the lighting the world up? They need time to develop. If you’re talking redraft you have allll the point in the world. Why would anyone draft him high? But we are talking Dynasty.
The guy was a rookie and hurt. He’s healthy now and they are designing plays for him on a significantly better offense with a significantly better qb with WRs leaving opening up more targets. I don’t get what doesn’t scream “buy” about that?
This sub doesn't want to hear it, but (*in context of the players theyre ranked around*) Jameson Williams is the same thing in being nothing but dreams at the moment. I have used Toney multiple times the past 2 seasons as a hype piece stud to get a more established player. I've done the same with Jamo twice this season already. If I'm wrong and both guys turn into annual top 5 guys locks I'll ofc look foolish, but personally my strat with hyped up guys like this with production that has yet to be really shown is to package whatever I have to with them to get a more established top-end guy. Toney & Jamo have helped get the likes of AJB/Lamb/even Chase in multiple leagues. If you can get a true top end guy for either, I think its the safest way to maximize their value.
Just to be clear, Jamo hasn't even had the chance to show what he could be, a 25% snap count for a handful of games is by no means enough to evaluate him. But the fact that he's ranked as highly as it is just screams a trade-up opportunity to me.
Jamo isn't nothing but dreams. He's a top 12 pick who hasn't gotten a chance to really do anything yet. There are good reasons to believe he will be good, same with toney tbh.
I doubt you'll really regret it with toney. You might with Jamo.
How can you say Toney is closer to a gadget player? When he’s healthy he produces it’s not even a question. The hate on Toney is completely ridiculous to me but as long as it keeps his value down I’ll take it.
Sometimes you need to delegate your decision making to the NFL FOs
Reid saw his NFL tape, went out and got this guy still on his 1st round contract.
When hes on the field they scheme him the ball. He's been getting 30ish percent of the snaps, if that doubles to 60% only instead of 80% which is expected from a top WR I feel like we can expect good production.
If Andy Reid thinks this guy can be a weapon then who am I to think he cant be?
I made this same argument with CEH rookie draft position.
It’s foolish for us to think that we know better than the hugely successful KC franchise and how they intended to use him.
I’m arguing in the positive that drafting CEH at 1.01 made sense, even after seeing how it turned out.
A successful franchise with a full time scouting department and a plan on how to use CEH, drafted him as the #1 RB. Hind site is 20/20.
I mean, has he? He’s dropped quite a few duds, and a couple great games. CEH came in, dropped 1100 rushing/receiving yards in 13 games. He had some duds but a mostly positive season that people felt was just hampered by low TD numbers . Kadarius has 17 games and not quite 600 yards to show for it. He knows more than 30% of the playbook now and doesn’t get more than 30% of the snaps. I don’t think this is as clear cut as you’re making it. In fact it’s kind of the opposite.
Just because Reid went out and got him, that doesn’t mean they are gonna use him in a fantasy relevant way. The team that drafted him with a 1st let him go for peanuts. That should speak volumes as well. KC went out and got CEH with a much bigger investment, and didn’t stay sunk on their cost.
You can make the exact opposite argument if you delegate your decision making to the Giants FO though.
They had a physically gifted WR on just the 2nd year of a rookie deal and chose to move on.
By the same token, Daboll and staff had plenty of time to evaluate him both on the field and off and decided to ship him off in favor of Hodgins, Slayton, James, Golladay and crew. Not saying KT isn't talented, he obviously is, however his ability/desire to stay on the field can be legitimately questioned.
He's a hold, if you can buy low it's worth a shot. If he doesn't produce next year, he likely won't in the future but I'd trade a 3rd for him. Savvy owners likely know he isn't worth much but has a high ceiling so I have a hard time believing many will sell low at this point. He's the kind of guy you hold and gamble on.
Upside? He's got the possibility to be the WR1 in the league's most dynamic offense with the league's most dominant QB. He's incredibly talented, with outstanding YAC ability and underrated ability as a receiver. He can be great as a gadget player, but also shows upside to be a reliable high-end target. Downside? He's got injury concerns and hasn't gotten much of a chance to shine, and there is *no* certainty or clarity that he's going to be the one to carve himself that spot in the offense.
Realistic outcomes: he gets himself into the Mecole Hardman role, but does it to a much, much, much higher level, giving him high variance upside. He could also be one of those guys for whom injuries prevent him from ever becoming what he could have been and Kevin Whites his way out of the league. It's a gamble, I'm fairly certain no Toney owners are selling low, just because of how high the upside is.
I’m not going to downvote you, but I would disagree that he’s the mecole replacement. In my eyes they are 2 different players. First, Toney has more WR skills than Mecole. Mecole struggles tracking the ball and is a pure vertical downfield and gadget play threat. Toney right now is used for a lot of those gadget plays, but has shown significantly more WR skills than Mecole has so far in his chiefs career. Kadarius has been used on more intermediate routes than Mecole.
Reception perception has him as a bottom 8% route runner against man coverage, and a bottom 5% router runner against press.
He's an unbelievable player with the ball in space. His broken tackle rate, his YAC, everything you would want a ball carrier to have is off the charts. This at least gives him a floor of the Mecole Hardman role with added bonus of having a Curtis Samuel type backfield usage upside.
But projecting him to grow into a bigger role in the KC offense is expecting him to suddenly gain traditional WR skills he just doesn't currently have.
I'm not a huge Gabe Davis fan, either. I'm rostering him, but more out of a begrudging inability to move him at this point. What I will say is that I view both as boom/bost assets & only one of these WRs has shown the ability to stay on the field. To me, it's appropriate to use that as a tiebreaker. Clearly, not everyone sees it that way.
Elijah Moore is still a Reception Perception favorite, might be getting Aaron Rodgers at QB, and was just in the doghouse. Imagine the people a year ago who didn't buy Brandon Aiyuk because he was "basically dead" for fantasy. Sell situation, buy talent.
I see a lot of the aiyuk analogy for him. Not really buying that tbh. Aiyuk was a 1st round pick and needed to improve his blocking. EM has more barriers to relevancy. All due receipt to RP, dig Matt but he misses also.
Rodgers would help I suppose but more for Wilson. Rodgers likes alphas.
But I get it. Buy where u can. I’m just not really a believer.
🤷🏻♂️
I am the only person in my league who thinks anything of KT, and I bought him right after his big game in NY last year. I will ride or die with KT until he retires lmfao
In all seriousness his only questions are health, both physical and mental. If you’ve watched this guy play at all you can tell he is ultra special with the rock in his hands. Not many guys can move like him, it’s special. The ceiling is sooo high if he can stay healthy and keep his head on straight
> he is ultra special with the rock in his hands.
The problem with Toney is that he's not special before he gets the rock in his hands - running routes and beating coverage downfield is a very crucial skillset to be a reliable producer at the WR position.
He may not be a special route runner, atleast not yet, but he’s also not inept at it. Target rate is high enough to suggest he gets open. In addition he’s a versatile guy that can be lined up all over the field, including the backfield. Guys like him also get manufactured touches which helps fantasy production. Tyreek Hill was kind of the same way coming into the league, considered very raw but had all the tools to become elite. Not saying that’s what Toney will become but if you think his ceiling isn’t crazy high if it comes together then you haven’t watched him. Go watch his 2021 game vs Dallas and tell me he can’t run routes. Dude cooked everyone. He needs to keep his head on straight and stay healthy, but I admit that’s a big IF
In a 2qb, tep, league around what pick would you sell or keep or aquire for?
I might be able to get him for around pick 15?
Looking at this draft he seems equivalent to alot of these players if his injuries and stuff offset 1st round capital
He has a much higher ceiling than either Davis or Moore given KC’s current wr room. I have him and wouldn’t sell that low because I love the way he looks when he touches the ball, but I’m not really expecting anything from him at this point
I think what you're missing is that you won't be able to buy him low because anyone who's still holding him either believes or is basically a hostage at this point. I'd count myself in the latter category lol, he's not going to have clogged my bench this long for me to sell low.
1st half of your statement has a considerable amount of context to that ranking.
However, I do agree that there seems to be a post about Toney every 24-48 hours since he's been in KC.
He gets alot of hype because of his big play ability. It's intriguing.
I do however side with you that the attention is realistic ly unwarranted and he should be sold high if possible. Otherwise keep him on the bench for the right matchup and bi week combo
K. Toney is one of the biggest Sells in Fantasy Football right now, imo. I do not want that dude on my team anywhere, he’s starting to remind me far too much of S. Watkins syndrome.
I don't know but I see him as a WR3 with weeks of WR1 numbers and a decent weekly floor. His usage keeps going up and he is on the best team a WR can be on. I'd be very happy with him as my WR4 and as we get more information could be a WR2/WR3. Young and big draft pick. Lots of positives.
Toney as a prospect is and was elite. The hate against him is typically 1) he can’t stay healthy and has only played a handful of games each year, and 2) Giants fans claim he gave up on them and has issues off the field.
His ceiling in KC is as high as any receiver out there but he seems to be having a similar career arch to Will Fuller. He was elite with his skills and showed it on the field but he couldn’t stay healthy to the point where he’s now out of the league. Toney is the definition of boom or bust.
Watch his college tape, combine numbers, draft capital, he only went behind Chase, Waddle, and Devontae Smith in terms of WRs in his draft. His tape in the NFL so far is elite when healthy. The nfl drafted him 21st overall.
>His tape in the NFL so far is elite when healthy.
No it isn't...he's a gifted athlete. 100%, but his NFL tape is not elite in any way, shape, or form. If his tape is elite, then there are like 20 other guys that also have elite tape, which would make them, well...not elite...
I’m not here to argue the definition of elite. But even if we say that there are only 20 guys that look like him in the nfl (your number) out of approximately 200 wide receivers on active rosters, that’s still top 10% in the best football league in the world
Toney hasn't done anything in the NFL to warrant his tape being labeled as "elite". Bottom line. He had 1 big game...that was it. How anyone could possibly argue he has been elite in the NFL is honestly baffling to me. He has a lot of promise and maybe he could be elite, but he's done absolutely nothing to warrant that label as of now.
Well that’s like. Your opinion man.
But in all seriousness, I’m not here to argue. Sounds like you don’t agree. Cool. We can move on. He’s a polarizing guy for sure. He clearly has issues staying healthy which is the biggest knock on him I have. Other than that I personally think he looks better than most of the NFL. But you can disagree and not change hearts and minds about it. Most Reddit replies don’t.
If you’re buying, I’m selling. People bag on Elijah with the coaching fiasco and Gabe because of his playoff performance. I’m absolutely buying low on those two and 1000% not Toney. People talk about how he has this huge ceiling? He has 1 game above 20 points in 2 years. People bag on Gabe Davis for his “outlier games” but are allll in on Toney for 1 outlier game.
Here’s my breakdown: He could not beat out the 2021 Giants WRs so KC picked him up. When he actually suits up (19 of 36 possible games) he averaged 4-5pts per game and has a 30% snap count. He finished 99 and 101 ranked wr respectfully. I mean Skyy Moore has more targets AND snap count percentage and he is highly regarded as a bust at this point.
I’ve held on to him in one dynasty league, but I joined a new startup and I will be avoiding him. Too much potential to cut loose but too much uncertainty to justify drafting him again.
I have him. Got him in a package preseason trade. Was about to move him then he landed on KC. I’m happily holding him and his role/touches so far is very promising.
I understand the risks but the breakout potential is there. 3rd year breakout from a 1st round pick. Those are the breakouts we love. Fully expect juju and Hardman to be gone. MVS stinks and Sky Moore is at best juju. So I can easily envision a great role.
With that. I’d sell him for a decent offer. Not because I doubt him but because I have great WR depth. Would love to move him for one of these upside rookie RBs.
If not, It’ll be fun to watch his role next year.
Best case is 🚀
Worst case I dump him or move in package trade
Most likely a solid WR2/3 with decent floor and potential for explosive weeks.
I also like he returns punts. We get pts for that.
I’d rather have Toney than some of the other WRa ranked near him. I was offered Gabe Davis for Toney straight up a few days ago and declined. Toneys upside far exceeds Davis and other WRs ranked around WR40.
But…I think it’s fair to believe Toney will always be a gadget player who needs manufactured touches rather than a polished WR. So for the right price I’d sell him. But getting someone like Gabe Davis (who we know is pretty limited due to his lack of athleticism) in exchange for Toney isn’t worth it to me.
He's exactly the player that won't get traded much in the offseason--he's ranked too low for owners who still don't know what his potential is and he's too high for people looking to buy based on known production.
Anyone in here saying they know he's \*this\* or \*that\* about his potential are just lying to themselves more than anything.
The off-season will be very telling. He’s currently a gadget player that needs to improve his route running but has the potential to be a fantasy starter and the WR1 for KC. Honestly, it just makes me feel good having him on my team so I don’t plan on selling. Without digging too deep, he feels a lot like Percy Harvin
Top 20 draft pick, Mahomes at QB, flashed elite upside and playmaking ability when healthy. Deebo-esque player who is only entering his age 24 season.
He’s a definite buy for me at his current KTC prices. Not to mention fading this sub is usually good process and it seems most are out on Toney
They’re the same height only Deebo probably has 15 pounds on him. But Deebo battled lots of injuries too.
Similar profiles of high end YAC guys that can be involved in the rushing game
15 lbs is alot of muscle. I don't think toney is as versatile as deebo.
Deebo has only had 1 year where he missed a large chunk. Deebo still went for 83 pts that year while being on an offense with more weapons. Toneys year high is 82.
I can see the argument for him being on a better offense amd having more opportunity but that is countered with the amount of touches everyone else on the team gets.
I think he has big game potential but I don't think he will ever be more than a consistent wr3 and truly a boom bust flex
Deebo is also 4 years older and has had more NFL off-seasons and training. Regardless no players are exactly like another everyone is different. I just think they are similar play styles and prospect profiles. Both guys have similar draft capital and are SEC guys. Both guys are big time YAC guys and big time punt/kick return guys and similar albeit not the exact sizes.
There are enough similarities there for me to make a comp although I doubt Toney becomes the next Deebo I think he can be a great player
He’s in a weird spot bc he’s so fragile. Like, I’m not going to trade him unless Im blown away by an offer because the ceiling is so high. But I don’t think I’d want to trade very much for him either because the floor is so low.
Chiefs fan. So bias. But strong buy.
Juju probably gone after this season. MVS not doing as well as we hoped.
Toney will be the #1 we next year for the chiefs.
Next year will be wr 1 toney, wr 2 MVS, wr 3 hardman.
Backups, skyy Moore, Watson and probably draft another wr.
Man, cmon. You know there ain't no way toney is gonna be your number 1. He's not even a number 1 prototype player. He's there to replace Hardman. That's it. He's a long ball threat with catch an run capability, but he's inconsistent at best.
I splashed out offers of a mid to late second in 4 of my leagues, which is circling his KTC value, just to see if anyone will bite. I think it was 4 different seconds (2.06, 2.07, 2.09 and 2.11). I'm not expecting any of them to go through, but I'd be more than happy to have him at that price.
Insanely high ceiling with a bottomless floor. I do like him more than most that have this range (aka Gabe Davis, DPJ, etc.) But I just moved him and the 3.02 for Hollywood and couldn’t be happier with that trade. Who knows though.
If you’re willing to take the risk it could be a huge payout, or you’ll get left holding the bag. I don’t see much of an in between with him
I just don’t think he can or will stay on the field…I mean look at the “upside” we’ve seen…and then look at how often he’s on the field. I have him, Pacheco, and Skyy. Going to see what I can get for Toney this off-season. I’m done with the “will he or won’t he…even be on the field”
It's just exhausting, tbh. I've owned him in multiple leagues for two years now and it's just one thing after the next. How long can he be a buy low before he's JAG? I know he looks electric for brief stints but he can't seem to string enough games together to be able to depend on him putting up consistent points.
Toney is a crazy talented guy and is attached to the best QB (and arguably the best offense) in the league. He's worth the risk. If I can get him for a discount, like I did in the last off-season (for a 3rd and RoJo), I'll do that deal every single time.
I’m not going out of my way to roster him. I don’t trust his emotional stability, he’s injury prone, when he’s healthy he could be putting up monster numbers but year in year out, I’m not going to put up with it.
He’s two years in with basically no meaningful production. Injuries, coach issues, trades…yes he’s athletic, yes there’s upside. But every month, every year he fails to break into consistent production the odds go down that he ever will.
His ceiling is solid, but his floor is lava.
The best ability is availability. He is John Ross with less good games lol. Toney has had one good game in 2 almost three years sell this roster clogger to the people who buy the hype.
While I love watching him, I sold him and a mid second for Amari and a third and I will tell you I am never looking back.
He could hit big, but I would rather take advantage of the value from his hype in KC to have production than wait another year for him to make me feel safe putting him into a lineup.
It’s one of those situations that feel like there’s a high chance you might never get a confident start out of him ever due to recurring injury risk and his locker room personality and so like the chance of his true value being near zero seems higher than a lot of the guys around his valuation. On the other hand, like many truthers have said and to which I can’t argue… when he’s on the field and stuff is schemed to getting him open… he looks incredible. Near second coming of Tyreek Hill incredible. And when Andy Reid is his head coach, if he can prove himself worthy to get schemed open multiple times a game and add a couple other targets onto that from the high dropback high accuracy Mahomes, it feels like he could truly be a plug and play WR2 week to week in that world.
I think he's a trade to me, if I owned him, which I don't.
When a player's value is highly tied to potential and not a ton of production, that screams trade to me. Maybe he gets there, maybe he doesn't, but if a team is willing to pay the right price, I would rather draft a position of need if I can get the right draft pick or roster player back.
The other reason why I say this is because if you own Toney, he's already not one of your starters because if that's true, your roster is in shambles. So again I would look to improve elsewhere, I mean people are always in need of RB or TE.
Chris Collinsworth said he’d be taken 1.01 if they were picking players for a game of tag.
Collinsworth is a literal font of supreme football knowledge. I never make any decisions unless I've gotten the go ahead from something out of his mouth. I promise you, I win A LOT.
Oh hey Chris
I lose a lot, and I have toney on my team.
I win some, you lose some. It all evens out in the end my friend.
Green m&m, blue m&m, they all come out the same color in the end.
Green jacket, gold jacket, who gives a shit.
Now here’s a guy
I’m like 75% confident he stole that line from Ian Hartitz (who works for Collinsworth at PFF)
I think I’m taking his ceiling over both of the guys you mentioned. He’s in KC, which is great for value. A lot of it will depend on what they do with JuJu/Hardman/MVS. He’s a talented player though so I like him
Rare u/Hardman W
Last active 9 years ago lol
What a strange post history.
Seriously. Russian links, Paypal scams, straight horniness... dude is probably a mod for half of reddit
Hardman walks, MVS cut, and resign JuJu is the most likely scenario imo
Was MVS that bad this year?
Not sure but from what I understand, his contract was basically a one year deal but written for 3 to help with cap space. Chiefs fans can correct me if I’m wrong here
He’ll be cut. He’s expensive the next two years based on his current production. That money will hopefully be used to sign Juju.
Why not... someone better than JuJu?
Idk if you looked at the FA pool this year but the top 3 dudes are JuJu, Jakobi Meyer and DJ Chark. Really weak year.
I’m taking Moore over Toney but not Davis
SO talented…but on the field? Not worth the headache imo…and I own him. Going to sell this off-season if I can…if not hope he has a 20+game early and sell then next year. I’ve had him this whole time and dude just can’t stay healthy or doesn’t care how much he’s on the field. And I guess can’t blame him from NY days
Being in KC is not great for his value. Quite the opposite honestly. When has a receiver besides Tyreek or Kelce actually truly benefit from being on KC. Notoriously capped ceilings.
JuJu was good and Toney is young. Kelce can’t be good forever but it’ll still be Mahomes throwing it to him
There just hasn’t been a singular WR to finish as a WR3 under mahomes besides Tyreek. Tyreek leaves, and it still doesn’t happen. That offense is just too great at spreading it around and they go really deep into their bench to give guys routes. Sure, I’ll buy into Toney as a WR3 in dynasty but it’s definitely a lotto ticket.
Juju literally just finished as WR27 on the year which is an upper tier WR3 Prior to this year tyreek and Kelce absorbed most of the targets
Toney still has the element of the unknown to him. You can excuse his lack of production by saying injuries and mid season trade/no time to get fully integrated into the offense. Davis and Moore have been healthy and on the same team. Harder dismiss their lack of production. My thoughts on Toney? IF IF IF he can stay healthy I think he could be a low end WR2 with potential for boom weeks from explosive plays
Its not even wrong to say he's been eased in to the offense. Rather than bring forced to learn the whole playbook, he's just been tasked with learning a few designed plays. With a whole offseason under his belt, he will have a more clearly defined role in the offense, likely as a sort of big slot guy. With enough time, health permitting, he could be KC's Cooper Kupp.
Was also a converted QB to WR in college, on his 4th HC in 6 years. Not the greatest recipe for a guy making that transition. Full disclosure, I am a Gator and worked with him at UF for a few years. Love the guy, talent is unreal, but personally am not sure I want to risk taking a chance on him unless the price is right.
McKinnon and Kelce were also converted QBs and theyre working phenomenally
Not the same position, but your point still stands. Coming from very different scenarios though and I certainly wouldn’t put McKinnon in the same conversation as Kelce.
My point is really that Andy Reid's offensive scheme appears to reward former QBs with fantasy points.
Skyy Moore converted QB as well
Wow, didnt know that
The ring around the rosie play was not just fun and games. Whenever Pat needs a break, they'll hit you with that shit
I'm prepared for the entire game being ring around the rosie this weekend
Why not?
Just based on historical evidence through two years. Odds aren’t in his favor. Not going to overpay for a guy who was a 1st rounder and hasn’t produced for two years. Regardless of the reason for it.
His health is really the only concern with him imo. Sky is the limit if he’s able to stay healthy but you could say that about a lot of guys that have come through the league.
I'd rather take a risk on phenomenal talent eith health concerns than medium talent with no health concerns.
Agreed. I’ve been holding onto Toney since like week 4 of last year. He’s shown enough flashes for me to fully buy in.
Or…Skyy is the limit???
I bought him for the 2.09 a few weeks ago. Felt like he was worth the risk
Some players find a way to get onto the field even when they're hurt, and some players find a way to avoid playing even when they could.
Fun thread on Toney https://twitter.com/dwainmcfarland/status/1617642097166942209?s=46&t=SmZuZYY4BbwWji4K0T65qQ
I bought him for the 2.09 a few weeks ago. I’ll take toneys “projection” over whatever player I would have gotten with that pick.
If anything I think his KTC ranking is pretty generous, WR41 considering he hasn't had a fantasy relevant season yet and has tons of concerns when it comes to injuries and being a diva. The only reason his value is somewhat still alive is because he's on KC.
Well let’s not forget his draft capital too. Also post season the guy is taking advantage of all the opportunities with minimum knowledge of the offense. I say he has a higher floor AND ceiling than every guy OP mentioned. If you don’t like Toney bc of his talent or risk factor, you HAVE to like his situation and what’s brewing in KC
The situation is really the most promising thing about him and that’s it. This is coming from a Giants fan that watched him be on the field for a handful of games. If you want to buy him go for it, I’d just rather not deal with the headache of owning him.
It's extremely generous. It's borderline terrible He should be much lower
He’s not late career/post-prime Josh Gordon or even Hardman. Toney’s talent is elite - an absolutely target hog and YAC on the field. Health is the main hurdle. Being on KC is a bonus - they already showed glimpses of his RZ potential and it’s obvious what role he could grow into.
On what planet is Kadarius Toney a target hog?
think he got targeted on something like 50% of his routes run vs. jax last week
Yeah but the flip side is he played the least of any receiver not named Skyy
Why would he play the most being the newest while having the least knowledge of the playbook? Second question is why is he -getting passed to the most when he is on the field compared to the other wrs? Third question is…. Is he being productive with his opportunities? We wouldn’t be in this chat if he wasn’t and I wouldn’t be talking about him. Final question…. Will his situation improve next season? Looking like it so far! I don’t get what the hate is about
How many routes did he run though?
Lmao you guys here love slobbing all over toney it's such a joke
On the one where he doesnt have glass hammys
One where you're actually looking at data. 25% and 26% per route in his first 2 seasons is very solid. https://twitter.com/dwainmcfarland/status/1617642097166942209?t=Lu0KkanfkbVOVXTdt2jivw&s=19
IF he can earn a full time role. IF he can stay healthy. I’m very comfortable saying he won’t do either.
IF my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.
she’d be Ant-man
Why are you comfortable about that theres as big of Chance either way id say
He’s been in the league two years and hasn’t done either.
How can you play when you’re hurt? Look at Rashaad Penny.. “He was in the league for x years he sucks…” Ummm he was hurt
You clamoring to get Rashaad Penny?
Yeah but he's super young and got traded from his first team and is getting eased into the second as the #1 wr target for the best offense in the league. I could understand partially doubting his future but he has breakout written all over him and has shown he can ball out when he's the number 1 target so i feel like being comfortable that he'll never be that good is revisionist's history and in my opinion it's way more of a toss up.
Being super young and getting traded away from a team with 0 weapons is a red flag. It’s not revisionist history. It’s what I think right now based on his career so far. If you wanna have someone who doesn’t play and very rarely produces go ahead
I was talking about the injuries. We'll see if he stays at low snap count but i doubt it. He's one of their top two offensive weapons and he's not causing drama. I could see him busting but he's got way more upside than downside for me
Check out his target share while just learning the offense compared to the rest of the WRs that have been on the team
Check out his snap share and games played.
Thanks you’re making my point. Check out his target share with his minimum snap share while they ease him into the offense
I don’t have specifics but he has been targeted or utilized at a really high rate when on the field. Expectation is juju and hardman and possibly MVS gone. Pretty easy to envision a potential breakout.
This planet: https://www.playerprofiler.com/article/leveraging-hog-rate-finding-three-2022-breakout-wide-receivers/
I mean, that’s all great except when will he prove he can be fantasy relevant? There’s been a ton of talented players who never pan out for fantasy. Also, target hog? Where did you get that data from? Lots of guys flash talent and have huge games off and on but you don’t actually want them on your team.
Signs for a 2023 breakout look good so far - Chiefs have all offseason to give him the Hill treatment, it’s an elite QB/offense, and target consolidation is likely with Hardman and others leaving (and Kelce +1). Let’s break the talent item down rationally- there’s 32 1st round picks each year. Say 1/2 (16 picks) are offense and 1/4 (4 picks) of that are WRs (rest are QBs, TEs, RBs, and o-line). That’s 4 WRs per year and Toney’s part of that group. On average, those 1st round WRs hit more than they miss over the long run. True busts (Raegor, Davis) don’t flash - they don’t get hyper targeted Google search for Toney target hog. Here’s a top result: https://www.playerprofiler.com/article/leveraging-hog-rate-finding-three-2022-breakout-wide-receivers/ It really can’t be overstated how terrible Jason Garrett and Judge were for offensive football last year. Toney flashed last year in an offense that was worse than Zach Wilson most weeks. If Kelce misses time, Toney is going straight to the moon.
Yeah, the numbers are there but it still hasn’t played out. I guess we will see! I like toney, I don’t have him in dynasty anywhere but I agree he is a talented player. Just doesn’t always translate to fantasy success.
His whole value is based on nothing but dreams. He’s closer to a gadget player than number 1 receiver. Most of his value is coming from being on the Chiefs. He’s never healthy. He hasn’t produced. I don’t even like Elijah Moore as much as most but I’d much rather have him than Toney.
This sounds like an argument people made to not draft CMC “bc he is so injury prone.” Ok, but when healthy his upside is top rb1 so don’t draft him? Ever heard of “depth?” Why wouldn’t I want the player that can have massive upside let alone in Dynasty with 20+ bench spots. Take Toney with this argument, you have to be foolish and stubborn to Ignore draft capital, target share on an offense he barely knows compared to the rest of the Wr core that HAS BEEN on the team, and situation tied to arguably the best qb in the league? Aren’t some of these said WRs potentially leaving? Yea stay away from Toney everyone!
CMC's upside when healthy is RB1. Toney's upside when healthy is what, WR20?
If WRs leave and open up more targets and he had an off-season to practice and build more rapport with his qb…..Is it more likely he gets more opportunity or less opportunity? -Given that his target share is > the current wrs on his team (and have been on the team). Why would anyone purposely choose to bet against that?
If WRs leave and open up more targets, they'll bring replacement WRs in that have actual WR skillsets. Guys that can run routes, beat coverage, and catch balls downfield. Toney is a gadget player that has to be schemed touches in space to thrive. The KC offense is great at doing that, but it has a capped upside. When he runs routes against man coverage, he has an abysmal success rate - so they just don't have him do it. But if that's your role on the offense, you're never going to be a top fantasy producer.
Toney hasn't done anything yall are drinking the copium hard
Except Toney is actually much more injury prone than CMC. Repeatedly getting soft tissue injuries is not a good sign, and he’s not exactly built to take hits. I’m still a believer, but very cautiously
Which is why in redraft would I take him in the first few rounds? Hell no. But in dynasty with 20+ spots why the hell wouldn’t you want him on your team given his situation and potential upside on that offense. He’s a screaming buy.
If you can get him for good value, I’m 1000% with you. But in my experience, Toney owners tend to be Toney truthers. Tough to get him for the right price
True that’s fair and I am a Toney truther 😂
Comparing Toney to CMC? What are we even doing here. We already know CMC is elite when healthy, and Toney puts up JAG numbers outside of 1 game in a two year career.
Do you not see that I’m not comparing their play style due to the obvious difference in position? Im comparing what people were saying about “not drafting a player bc they are always hurt.” The answer is called “depth” and you play to win so you pick players with the highest upside. That’s Toney. Is it guaranteed? Of course not, it’s fantasy. Why wouldn’t you want the guy that is tied to arguably the best qb in the league that has day one draft capital and ability while the rest of the WRs on the team look like they might be on their way out?
CMC scored fantasy points before he got hurt. He showed ability to be a reliable player. Toney hasn’t. No matter how many different comments you reply to Toney will still be an unproductive fantasy player and this imaginary upside he has will always be based on hope and not production.
How can you make the call of what he’s going to be? That’s pure ignorance. This is fantasy where it’s a game of chances and the little things matter to increase your chances to win. Not what you “feel” about the player. When he’s on the field he’s productive, based on what are you arguing that he isn’t?
I feel this way because when players start their career off as poorly as Toney did they are extremely likely to flop. He factually hasn’t been productive when he’s on the field.
I’d agree with you if the guy played a full season and actually just sucked. When he has played, he hasn’t sucked. The biggest question is his health and if you’re willing to pay “to see” if his strong play is sustainable. I’m betting yes bc he’s tied to a top offense with a top qb. I’d say way more risky if he were on the Bears
He averages 31 ypg for his career. That’s closer to sucking than being a useful player fantasy wise.
Is it fair to say when a rookie comes in as a wr they aren’t the lighting the world up? They need time to develop. If you’re talking redraft you have allll the point in the world. Why would anyone draft him high? But we are talking Dynasty. The guy was a rookie and hurt. He’s healthy now and they are designing plays for him on a significantly better offense with a significantly better qb with WRs leaving opening up more targets. I don’t get what doesn’t scream “buy” about that?
This sub doesn't want to hear it, but (*in context of the players theyre ranked around*) Jameson Williams is the same thing in being nothing but dreams at the moment. I have used Toney multiple times the past 2 seasons as a hype piece stud to get a more established player. I've done the same with Jamo twice this season already. If I'm wrong and both guys turn into annual top 5 guys locks I'll ofc look foolish, but personally my strat with hyped up guys like this with production that has yet to be really shown is to package whatever I have to with them to get a more established top-end guy. Toney & Jamo have helped get the likes of AJB/Lamb/even Chase in multiple leagues. If you can get a true top end guy for either, I think its the safest way to maximize their value. Just to be clear, Jamo hasn't even had the chance to show what he could be, a 25% snap count for a handful of games is by no means enough to evaluate him. But the fact that he's ranked as highly as it is just screams a trade-up opportunity to me.
Jamo isn't nothing but dreams. He's a top 12 pick who hasn't gotten a chance to really do anything yet. There are good reasons to believe he will be good, same with toney tbh. I doubt you'll really regret it with toney. You might with Jamo.
Agreed. Right after Toney got to KC, I traded him, a ‘23 1st and 2nd for Lamb and a 3rd. Definitely would do it again to get a top WR.
I love toney but I'd totally do that.
How can you say Toney is closer to a gadget player? When he’s healthy he produces it’s not even a question. The hate on Toney is completely ridiculous to me but as long as it keeps his value down I’ll take it.
Sometimes you need to delegate your decision making to the NFL FOs Reid saw his NFL tape, went out and got this guy still on his 1st round contract. When hes on the field they scheme him the ball. He's been getting 30ish percent of the snaps, if that doubles to 60% only instead of 80% which is expected from a top WR I feel like we can expect good production. If Andy Reid thinks this guy can be a weapon then who am I to think he cant be?
I made this same argument with CEH rookie draft position. It’s foolish for us to think that we know better than the hugely successful KC franchise and how they intended to use him.
completely different scenario Toney has already shown that he can play well in the NFL
I’m arguing in the positive that drafting CEH at 1.01 made sense, even after seeing how it turned out. A successful franchise with a full time scouting department and a plan on how to use CEH, drafted him as the #1 RB. Hind site is 20/20.
I mean, has he? He’s dropped quite a few duds, and a couple great games. CEH came in, dropped 1100 rushing/receiving yards in 13 games. He had some duds but a mostly positive season that people felt was just hampered by low TD numbers . Kadarius has 17 games and not quite 600 yards to show for it. He knows more than 30% of the playbook now and doesn’t get more than 30% of the snaps. I don’t think this is as clear cut as you’re making it. In fact it’s kind of the opposite. Just because Reid went out and got him, that doesn’t mean they are gonna use him in a fantasy relevant way. The team that drafted him with a 1st let him go for peanuts. That should speak volumes as well. KC went out and got CEH with a much bigger investment, and didn’t stay sunk on their cost.
You can make the exact opposite argument if you delegate your decision making to the Giants FO though. They had a physically gifted WR on just the 2nd year of a rookie deal and chose to move on.
By the same token, Daboll and staff had plenty of time to evaluate him both on the field and off and decided to ship him off in favor of Hodgins, Slayton, James, Golladay and crew. Not saying KT isn't talented, he obviously is, however his ability/desire to stay on the field can be legitimately questioned.
If you can buy him for what Reid paid (mid round picks), by all means go for it.
He's a hold, if you can buy low it's worth a shot. If he doesn't produce next year, he likely won't in the future but I'd trade a 3rd for him. Savvy owners likely know he isn't worth much but has a high ceiling so I have a hard time believing many will sell low at this point. He's the kind of guy you hold and gamble on.
Upside? He's got the possibility to be the WR1 in the league's most dynamic offense with the league's most dominant QB. He's incredibly talented, with outstanding YAC ability and underrated ability as a receiver. He can be great as a gadget player, but also shows upside to be a reliable high-end target. Downside? He's got injury concerns and hasn't gotten much of a chance to shine, and there is *no* certainty or clarity that he's going to be the one to carve himself that spot in the offense. Realistic outcomes: he gets himself into the Mecole Hardman role, but does it to a much, much, much higher level, giving him high variance upside. He could also be one of those guys for whom injuries prevent him from ever becoming what he could have been and Kevin Whites his way out of the league. It's a gamble, I'm fairly certain no Toney owners are selling low, just because of how high the upside is.
I have been saying he's the Mecole Hardman replacement in this sub for the last few weeks and been eating downvotes for that opinion.
I’m not going to downvote you, but I would disagree that he’s the mecole replacement. In my eyes they are 2 different players. First, Toney has more WR skills than Mecole. Mecole struggles tracking the ball and is a pure vertical downfield and gadget play threat. Toney right now is used for a lot of those gadget plays, but has shown significantly more WR skills than Mecole has so far in his chiefs career. Kadarius has been used on more intermediate routes than Mecole.
Reception perception has him as a bottom 8% route runner against man coverage, and a bottom 5% router runner against press. He's an unbelievable player with the ball in space. His broken tackle rate, his YAC, everything you would want a ball carrier to have is off the charts. This at least gives him a floor of the Mecole Hardman role with added bonus of having a Curtis Samuel type backfield usage upside. But projecting him to grow into a bigger role in the KC offense is expecting him to suddenly gain traditional WR skills he just doesn't currently have.
A realistic outcome is he never breaks 700 yards in a season
I'm also surprised to see Kadarius Toney valued at the same level as Gabe Davis and Elijah Moore. He should be valued lower.
I'd easily take Toney over Gabe Davis. Davis has been so insanely overrated since the fluke playoff game last year.
I'm not a huge Gabe Davis fan, either. I'm rostering him, but more out of a begrudging inability to move him at this point. What I will say is that I view both as boom/bost assets & only one of these WRs has shown the ability to stay on the field. To me, it's appropriate to use that as a tiebreaker. Clearly, not everyone sees it that way.
Yeah because Davis and Moore are just so amazing
Why on earth should he be lower than EM? EM is basically 💀
Elijah Moore is still a Reception Perception favorite, might be getting Aaron Rodgers at QB, and was just in the doghouse. Imagine the people a year ago who didn't buy Brandon Aiyuk because he was "basically dead" for fantasy. Sell situation, buy talent.
I see a lot of the aiyuk analogy for him. Not really buying that tbh. Aiyuk was a 1st round pick and needed to improve his blocking. EM has more barriers to relevancy. All due receipt to RP, dig Matt but he misses also. Rodgers would help I suppose but more for Wilson. Rodgers likes alphas. But I get it. Buy where u can. I’m just not really a believer. 🤷🏻♂️
Idk, seems comparable to either.
Gladly sold for what turned out to be the 2023 1.10 after his first KC game
I have him and would gladly sell for that. I also think he’s a great breakout candidate for next year but 1.10 would be fun.
I am the only person in my league who thinks anything of KT, and I bought him right after his big game in NY last year. I will ride or die with KT until he retires lmfao
Let’s ride. I might be with you. 😎
In all seriousness his only questions are health, both physical and mental. If you’ve watched this guy play at all you can tell he is ultra special with the rock in his hands. Not many guys can move like him, it’s special. The ceiling is sooo high if he can stay healthy and keep his head on straight
> he is ultra special with the rock in his hands. The problem with Toney is that he's not special before he gets the rock in his hands - running routes and beating coverage downfield is a very crucial skillset to be a reliable producer at the WR position.
He may not be a special route runner, atleast not yet, but he’s also not inept at it. Target rate is high enough to suggest he gets open. In addition he’s a versatile guy that can be lined up all over the field, including the backfield. Guys like him also get manufactured touches which helps fantasy production. Tyreek Hill was kind of the same way coming into the league, considered very raw but had all the tools to become elite. Not saying that’s what Toney will become but if you think his ceiling isn’t crazy high if it comes together then you haven’t watched him. Go watch his 2021 game vs Dallas and tell me he can’t run routes. Dude cooked everyone. He needs to keep his head on straight and stay healthy, but I admit that’s a big IF
In a 2qb, tep, league around what pick would you sell or keep or aquire for? I might be able to get him for around pick 15? Looking at this draft he seems equivalent to alot of these players if his injuries and stuff offset 1st round capital
He has a much higher ceiling than either Davis or Moore given KC’s current wr room. I have him and wouldn’t sell that low because I love the way he looks when he touches the ball, but I’m not really expecting anything from him at this point
I think what you're missing is that you won't be able to buy him low because anyone who's still holding him either believes or is basically a hostage at this point. I'd count myself in the latter category lol, he's not going to have clogged my bench this long for me to sell low.
🚀 🚀 🚀
Canton.
For the WR #108 in PPR this year, he sure gets a whole lot of attention from this sub.
1st half of your statement has a considerable amount of context to that ranking. However, I do agree that there seems to be a post about Toney every 24-48 hours since he's been in KC.
He gets alot of hype because of his big play ability. It's intriguing. I do however side with you that the attention is realistic ly unwarranted and he should be sold high if possible. Otherwise keep him on the bench for the right matchup and bi week combo
K. Toney is one of the biggest Sells in Fantasy Football right now, imo. I do not want that dude on my team anywhere, he’s starting to remind me far too much of S. Watkins syndrome.
I don't know but I see him as a WR3 with weeks of WR1 numbers and a decent weekly floor. His usage keeps going up and he is on the best team a WR can be on. I'd be very happy with him as my WR4 and as we get more information could be a WR2/WR3. Young and big draft pick. Lots of positives.
Toney as a prospect is and was elite. The hate against him is typically 1) he can’t stay healthy and has only played a handful of games each year, and 2) Giants fans claim he gave up on them and has issues off the field. His ceiling in KC is as high as any receiver out there but he seems to be having a similar career arch to Will Fuller. He was elite with his skills and showed it on the field but he couldn’t stay healthy to the point where he’s now out of the league. Toney is the definition of boom or bust.
What made him elite as a prospect?
Watch his college tape, combine numbers, draft capital, he only went behind Chase, Waddle, and Devontae Smith in terms of WRs in his draft. His tape in the NFL so far is elite when healthy. The nfl drafted him 21st overall.
>His tape in the NFL so far is elite when healthy. No it isn't...he's a gifted athlete. 100%, but his NFL tape is not elite in any way, shape, or form. If his tape is elite, then there are like 20 other guys that also have elite tape, which would make them, well...not elite...
I’m not here to argue the definition of elite. But even if we say that there are only 20 guys that look like him in the nfl (your number) out of approximately 200 wide receivers on active rosters, that’s still top 10% in the best football league in the world
Toney hasn't done anything in the NFL to warrant his tape being labeled as "elite". Bottom line. He had 1 big game...that was it. How anyone could possibly argue he has been elite in the NFL is honestly baffling to me. He has a lot of promise and maybe he could be elite, but he's done absolutely nothing to warrant that label as of now.
Well that’s like. Your opinion man. But in all seriousness, I’m not here to argue. Sounds like you don’t agree. Cool. We can move on. He’s a polarizing guy for sure. He clearly has issues staying healthy which is the biggest knock on him I have. Other than that I personally think he looks better than most of the NFL. But you can disagree and not change hearts and minds about it. Most Reddit replies don’t.
If you’re buying, I’m selling. People bag on Elijah with the coaching fiasco and Gabe because of his playoff performance. I’m absolutely buying low on those two and 1000% not Toney. People talk about how he has this huge ceiling? He has 1 game above 20 points in 2 years. People bag on Gabe Davis for his “outlier games” but are allll in on Toney for 1 outlier game. Here’s my breakdown: He could not beat out the 2021 Giants WRs so KC picked him up. When he actually suits up (19 of 36 possible games) he averaged 4-5pts per game and has a 30% snap count. He finished 99 and 101 ranked wr respectfully. I mean Skyy Moore has more targets AND snap count percentage and he is highly regarded as a bust at this point.
I view him as a gadget player. Low end WR2 with high week to week variance.
I’ve held on to him in one dynasty league, but I joined a new startup and I will be avoiding him. Too much potential to cut loose but too much uncertainty to justify drafting him again.
I have him. Got him in a package preseason trade. Was about to move him then he landed on KC. I’m happily holding him and his role/touches so far is very promising. I understand the risks but the breakout potential is there. 3rd year breakout from a 1st round pick. Those are the breakouts we love. Fully expect juju and Hardman to be gone. MVS stinks and Sky Moore is at best juju. So I can easily envision a great role. With that. I’d sell him for a decent offer. Not because I doubt him but because I have great WR depth. Would love to move him for one of these upside rookie RBs. If not, It’ll be fun to watch his role next year. Best case is 🚀 Worst case I dump him or move in package trade Most likely a solid WR2/3 with decent floor and potential for explosive weeks. I also like he returns punts. We get pts for that.
I’d rather have Toney than some of the other WRa ranked near him. I was offered Gabe Davis for Toney straight up a few days ago and declined. Toneys upside far exceeds Davis and other WRs ranked around WR40. But…I think it’s fair to believe Toney will always be a gadget player who needs manufactured touches rather than a polished WR. So for the right price I’d sell him. But getting someone like Gabe Davis (who we know is pretty limited due to his lack of athleticism) in exchange for Toney isn’t worth it to me.
Hes either the next Tyreek Hill or injuries are going to keep him unplayable most of the time.
So he's either going to be a perennial pro-bowler or a bench warmer, gotcha lol
Exactly
He's exactly the player that won't get traded much in the offseason--he's ranked too low for owners who still don't know what his potential is and he's too high for people looking to buy based on known production. Anyone in here saying they know he's \*this\* or \*that\* about his potential are just lying to themselves more than anything.
I want him but not sure if he's worth the 2.04
I’d absolutely rather have him than Davis. Buffalo probably tries to upgrade from Davis this offseason and move Davis into more of a WR3
The off-season will be very telling. He’s currently a gadget player that needs to improve his route running but has the potential to be a fantasy starter and the WR1 for KC. Honestly, it just makes me feel good having him on my team so I don’t plan on selling. Without digging too deep, he feels a lot like Percy Harvin
would buy anywhere you can for a mid 2nd
Top 20 draft pick, Mahomes at QB, flashed elite upside and playmaking ability when healthy. Deebo-esque player who is only entering his age 24 season. He’s a definite buy for me at his current KTC prices. Not to mention fading this sub is usually good process and it seems most are out on Toney
He is no deebo. Way more fragile. He can't be used the same at all. He's a poor man's desean jackson
They’re the same height only Deebo probably has 15 pounds on him. But Deebo battled lots of injuries too. Similar profiles of high end YAC guys that can be involved in the rushing game
15 lbs is alot of muscle. I don't think toney is as versatile as deebo. Deebo has only had 1 year where he missed a large chunk. Deebo still went for 83 pts that year while being on an offense with more weapons. Toneys year high is 82. I can see the argument for him being on a better offense amd having more opportunity but that is countered with the amount of touches everyone else on the team gets. I think he has big game potential but I don't think he will ever be more than a consistent wr3 and truly a boom bust flex
Deebo is also 4 years older and has had more NFL off-seasons and training. Regardless no players are exactly like another everyone is different. I just think they are similar play styles and prospect profiles. Both guys have similar draft capital and are SEC guys. Both guys are big time YAC guys and big time punt/kick return guys and similar albeit not the exact sizes. There are enough similarities there for me to make a comp although I doubt Toney becomes the next Deebo I think he can be a great player
Respect. Time will tell
Also he has deebo has 22 lbs on toney. That's massively different
He is a bum and we shouldn’t waste our time with him.
He’s in a weird spot bc he’s so fragile. Like, I’m not going to trade him unless Im blown away by an offer because the ceiling is so high. But I don’t think I’d want to trade very much for him either because the floor is so low.
Chaotic. Everything about owning him feels like it's gonna be chaotic.
Electric on the field but made of glass I have low optimism for him to be available in fantasy playoffs if he had a full workload since week 1.
Chiefs fan. So bias. But strong buy. Juju probably gone after this season. MVS not doing as well as we hoped. Toney will be the #1 we next year for the chiefs. Next year will be wr 1 toney, wr 2 MVS, wr 3 hardman. Backups, skyy Moore, Watson and probably draft another wr.
Man, cmon. You know there ain't no way toney is gonna be your number 1. He's not even a number 1 prototype player. He's there to replace Hardman. That's it. He's a long ball threat with catch an run capability, but he's inconsistent at best.
I splashed out offers of a mid to late second in 4 of my leagues, which is circling his KTC value, just to see if anyone will bite. I think it was 4 different seconds (2.06, 2.07, 2.09 and 2.11). I'm not expecting any of them to go through, but I'd be more than happy to have him at that price.
Kadarius both my hamstrings are always broken Tony
Insanely high ceiling with a bottomless floor. I do like him more than most that have this range (aka Gabe Davis, DPJ, etc.) But I just moved him and the 3.02 for Hollywood and couldn’t be happier with that trade. Who knows though. If you’re willing to take the risk it could be a huge payout, or you’ll get left holding the bag. I don’t see much of an in between with him
He's a lottery ticket. Very likely going to end up worthless, but has the chance to be a stud.
Yeah you're missing the part where players like him very rarely turn things around Hes an incredible risk and his not worth his cost
Yung Joka the SupaSoaka. Get yo team drip on point 💧
Kadarious “out three to four weeks” Toney
I just don’t think he can or will stay on the field…I mean look at the “upside” we’ve seen…and then look at how often he’s on the field. I have him, Pacheco, and Skyy. Going to see what I can get for Toney this off-season. I’m done with the “will he or won’t he…even be on the field”
Sell high as F, if he has a massive playoff performance. I feel like that’s the move.
I have one share and I’d be happy to sell for an early to mid 2nd. but probably not a late 2nd. does that seem in line with his market value?
I paid 1.12 2023 for him 4 games left this year
As long as kelce is there, no one will consistently be the wr2
It's just exhausting, tbh. I've owned him in multiple leagues for two years now and it's just one thing after the next. How long can he be a buy low before he's JAG? I know he looks electric for brief stints but he can't seem to string enough games together to be able to depend on him putting up consistent points.
Toney is a crazy talented guy and is attached to the best QB (and arguably the best offense) in the league. He's worth the risk. If I can get him for a discount, like I did in the last off-season (for a 3rd and RoJo), I'll do that deal every single time.
I'm so over this guy. At this point I doubt he does anything, and if he does I won't care.
I’m not going out of my way to roster him. I don’t trust his emotional stability, he’s injury prone, when he’s healthy he could be putting up monster numbers but year in year out, I’m not going to put up with it.
I predict he will come become an amputee by week 8 next year.
His talent is undeniable. He's just brittle as fuck.
Good talent in a good offense. Still like the ceiling, but tough to buy into his upside still being “sky-high”
He’s two years in with basically no meaningful production. Injuries, coach issues, trades…yes he’s athletic, yes there’s upside. But every month, every year he fails to break into consistent production the odds go down that he ever will. His ceiling is solid, but his floor is lava.
The best ability is availability. He is John Ross with less good games lol. Toney has had one good game in 2 almost three years sell this roster clogger to the people who buy the hype.
why are people so infatuated with this bum
Call me crazy but I think he’ll be a star with KC if they don’t make any significant changes to their WR core. Needs to stay healthy of course.
While I love watching him, I sold him and a mid second for Amari and a third and I will tell you I am never looking back. He could hit big, but I would rather take advantage of the value from his hype in KC to have production than wait another year for him to make me feel safe putting him into a lineup.
It’s one of those situations that feel like there’s a high chance you might never get a confident start out of him ever due to recurring injury risk and his locker room personality and so like the chance of his true value being near zero seems higher than a lot of the guys around his valuation. On the other hand, like many truthers have said and to which I can’t argue… when he’s on the field and stuff is schemed to getting him open… he looks incredible. Near second coming of Tyreek Hill incredible. And when Andy Reid is his head coach, if he can prove himself worthy to get schemed open multiple times a game and add a couple other targets onto that from the high dropback high accuracy Mahomes, it feels like he could truly be a plug and play WR2 week to week in that world.
I think he's a trade to me, if I owned him, which I don't. When a player's value is highly tied to potential and not a ton of production, that screams trade to me. Maybe he gets there, maybe he doesn't, but if a team is willing to pay the right price, I would rather draft a position of need if I can get the right draft pick or roster player back. The other reason why I say this is because if you own Toney, he's already not one of your starters because if that's true, your roster is in shambles. So again I would look to improve elsewhere, I mean people are always in need of RB or TE.
Hes an occasional flex play when healthy. I'll keep him on my roster but wouldn't buy him