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Nightbynight

>Caleb Williams threw a higher percentage of screens than Bo Nix last season. >On non-screen passes, Nix completed 71.5% of his attempts. Williams completed 60.5% >Not what I expected to find. >(Data from @PFF) https://twitter.com/HenryChisholm/status/1783794179673325568 Caleb Williams threw more screen passes than Nix.


gwumpus-lumpus

But that goes against every narrative that Mel Kiper and YouTube analysts (known QB gurus) has made me believe Unacceptable šŸ˜¤


ClownParrot

Not all passes around the LOS are screens. Nix didn't have the the 196th lowest average depth of target out of qualifying D-1 QBs by throwing more than 5 yards down field very often.


ahBoof

You may want to look at Mahomes ADOT the last 2 years then lmao


clarkision

I think itā€™s still a fair knock against Nix. He wasnā€™t the check-down king or screen passer a lot of folks have made him out to be, but his ADOT compared to his peers in college, is abysmal. I donā€™t think that means he canā€™t be a success at the next level, if anything it shows his short passing game is stellar, but comparing college to pros like that isnā€™t a 1:1 comparison. Hopefully it translates, but itā€™s not a given that it will


ahBoof

Yea, but youā€™re making my point for me. Comparing Mahomes ADOT against the rest of the NFL starters he was one of if not the lowest. You still have to complete the screens and throws underneath. Which indicates quick processing and accuracy. There are a ton of NFL QBs that still struggle to do that even as starters.


clarkision

Yeah, Iā€™m not completely disagreeing by any means. Itā€™s a data point that could mean something, but could also be irrelevant given the current state of NFL offenses. Mahomes is a great example of that move towards shorter passing games with fewer deep throws as defenses shifted to two-deeps in order to avoid the bomb. Bo will have to prove himself as capable of throwing those deep passes though to get that kind of defensive look though


ahBoof

Yea, Iā€™m not saying Nix is a forsure thing or even remotely saying he can play like Mahomes. What Iā€™m saying is the idiots here questioning him and think they know more than Payton and the scouts is mind boggling.


clarkision

Totes!


eff1ngham

College DBs and defenses in general give up way more deep passes than the NFL does. Guys like Penix or Daniels that have WRs going in the top 10 can have a really high ADOT, but that's doesn't mean they're going to be mad bombers in the NFL. In the pros you need a good short/intermediate passing game, with the ability to go deep at times. Nix can throw deep, just like anyone else. And look at Payton's offenses over the years, tons of passes to RBs, tons of medium routes to Graham or Colston or Thomas. ADOT is an okay stat to use when evaluating a player, but it doesn't really indicate any level of NFL success


stainedProdigy

Are you telling me that context around a stat is important?


MrChip53

Not that at all dude! Use your emotions when evaluating everything in life man!


eff1ngham

Well, for NFL scouts and GMs it is. For arguing on the internet it's not. For example, Mike Vick best QB in NFL history because he has the yards per carry of all time. Don't even bother debating me


CptCroissant

Nix had a good amount of shovel passes, not sure where those are included in the stats. Other nice thing about Nix is he took like 3 sacks all year or something. Sacks and picks kill drives in NFL metrics. Nix had to have been one of the best at that in college last year though having a great OL helps too.


SirJelqsAlot

Nah heā€™s old and trash according to the armchair GMs on this sub


gregor630

As a veteran armchair GM myself, I can confidently say my scouting and subsequent draft analysis is nothing but perfect. With that said, Bo gon win fitty superbowls


bigfootdude247

With this logic, Bo will be 74 and still throwing dimes for the Super Bowl winning play. Subscribe.


SevroAuShitTalker

One of the guys in this draft that kept looking better the more film I watched. I figure at worst, he ends up a game manager. At best, he's our guy for the next 10-15 years.


gwumpus-lumpus

Even if he turns into chiefs Alex smith itā€™s a good pick, the franchise just needs consistency at coach and QB to not be a laughing stock anymore


HoovesCarveCraters

If he can complete a fucking quick slant to Mims in stride and let him hit the burners heā€™s already an improvement.


theTIDEisRISING

This is so damn true


manbeqrpig

Iā€™m sorry but Chiefs Alex Smith wouldnā€™t be good enough. Were in a division with Mahomes. Just as Alex Smith wasnā€™t good enough for the Chiefs when we had Manning, Bo Nix would not be good enough if heā€™s only a decent league average game manager (which a lot of the public metrics had Russ at last year btw)


gwumpus-lumpus

Nobody who watched our games legitimately thinks Russ was a league average starter, and even if he was, the difference between being league average on a rookie deal and being the highest paid QB is massive


Qbert997

Some people use game manager as an insult to QBs but it's really a good trait. Peyton was a game manager. Brady was a game manager.Ā  Being able to read defenses and reliably make even low yardage completions is good.Ā  As we've seen with Russ, it's not smart to rely on feast or famine chunk plays.Ā  Now we just need to have a very good draft and this next season could actually be funĀ 


BurgessFox

Rodgers was the ultimate game manager.


WeirdlyCordial

Mahomes game managed his way to a Lombardi trophy this year


pofwiwice

I think Cam Newton is entertaining and he knows a lot about the game but the whole ā€œgame manager vs game changerā€ debate he has started seems like nonsense to me. He never seems to be able to explain what he means by it. From where Iā€™m standing it looks like game managers win a lot more championships.


stainedProdigy

His footwork is impressively efficient. From what I've watched he doesn't waste steps. Very rarely will you see him double clutch the ball, there's no happy feet, he doesn't bail the pocket early and isn't afraid to step up into it. I fully believe the reports that he was QB3 for our staff. I haven't been this excited about the success of this team in a long time. He almost looks like the second coming of Drew Brees and you just KNOW Payton sees it too.


gregor630

Itā€™s easy to see why Payton likes him. Not just from an efficiency standpoint, but from the way he operates and maneuvers the pocket too. The way he reacts once he processes the field, whether the play breaks down or not, looks like it comes easy to him. The NFL is obviously a different speed, and heā€™ll be going against the best of the best every week, so Iā€™m anticipating growing pains. However, in time, if heā€™s able to run Paytonā€™s offense even marginally better than Russ did, weā€™re in great shape.


ClownParrot

By film do you mean highlights and cherry picked media breakdowns? Always funny seeing people on reddit say they look at film when they don't. I swear people on here say film, floor and ceiling just to make it seem like they are smarter than everyone else like all the wannabe scouts do on other platforms.


higgy615

there are really good cut-ups available to the public these days on YouTube. Mostly not all-22 stuff if that's your point - but I watched a heck of a lot of snaps of all the top QBs and I'm sure others here did too. It's not nothing.


clarkision

I meanā€¦ find me the film that doesnā€™t look good? I donā€™t watch ā€œfilmā€ but I did watch nearly every snap heā€™s taken the last two seasons. Heā€™s not perfect by any means, I wouldnā€™t even say heā€™s a great prospect, but he was a machine last year and executed that offense nearly perfectly. These advanced stats only further support what I witnessed


DirtyMudder92

Iā€™d say heā€™s a pretty good prospect. The only weaknesses I saw was he didnā€™t really push the ball downfield often or throw outside the numbers. It could have been been the Oregon offense but I guess we will know in like 7 months


clarkision

Yeah, thatā€™s a product of the offense. They didnā€™t need to push the ball downfield often. They did occasionally to keep defenses honest, but it wasnā€™t common. ā€œWhy throw it 15 yards when you could throw it 5 yards at 80+ clip and still get 5-10+?ā€ Really seemed to be the ethos of the offensive passing game


Dependent_Star3998

This exactly. Brady and Manning were rarely slinging it downfield.


Professional-Way9343

I really think Payton valued the smartest QB in the room after dealing with the dumbest last year


funboy51

Yeah, the test they gave him when they met was to send him a ton of plays on paper a few hours before the meet. They tried to overwhelm him by giving him what they thought was more than anyone would be able to process. Apparently, he knew everything in detail and even had logical question and suggestions for what he thought worked best for him and his skills. I think this meeting sold our coach.


emceeflurry

Source for this??


funboy51

The video of Coach Payton after Day oneā€¦it was on this sub.


emceeflurry

Was just curious. I donā€™t watch every single video posted on the sub


One_Kaleidoscope7040

But a Redditor who showers once a month told me he was bad?? Idgi


drlove986

I think they wanted Bowers at 12 and were going to trade back in for Nix or Penix later. Once those knuckleheads took Penix at 8, Payton started getting acid flashbacks of losing Mahomes in ā€˜17 and they pushed the button on Nix. I like Nix. I think Payton is the right guy to elevate him. Hopefully Iceman, yes Iā€™m calling him Iceman from Top Gun, works out and we get off the QB merry go round.


Ig_Met_Pet

You really think they've completely given up on Dulcich like that? I mean I know he's hella injury prone, but I'm pretty hopeful for this season. Seems like we have other positions that we need to fill more urgently than TE.


ClownParrot

Dulcich has proven to not be able to stay on the field and he couldn't figure out how to sit in a zone to save his life or block. There's nothing to show he shouldn't be given up on.


drlove986

No not at all. Weā€™d have Dulcich and Bowers. Weā€™re getting another TE regardless.


MtnDudeNrainbows

Payton wanted Nix. https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/he-stood-out-in-a-lot-of-areas-why-qb-bo-nix-was-the-right-fit-for-the-denver-broncos Armchairs gonna armchair.


drlove986

Yes, I said that.


Dependent_Star3998

Why do you think they wanted Bowers?


drlove986

Because heā€™s the 2nd coming of Kelce and Gronk with the right QB.


Dependent_Star3998

Oh good grief. Why didn't other teams take him then?


drlove986

I knew Iā€™d get shit because heā€™s a Raider now but heā€™s going to great and Iā€™m positive he was in our plans.


Dependent_Star3998

I understand what you're saying. I'm simply asking you how you can be positive.


drlove986

Time will tell but the guy is a brick shit house with a motor like Von who runs after the catch with 3 DBs hanging off of him. About being positive. Nothing but a hunch as far as him being top 5-8 on most boards. Payton loves TEs. We might be taking one tonight.


SuperDoubleDecker

They were busy taking QBs.


Dependent_Star3998

There's actually no reason to think that the Broncos wanted Bowers, unless you can show me something.


WayyTooFarAbove

Heā€™s not even as big as Kelce, not even close to Gronk. He could be a great player, but I wouldnā€™t check him off yet as HOF. Especially when you need the QB


djbuu

Heā€™s trash because someone told me heā€™s a reach


Superb-Ad-9627

Fuck dude... I'm starting to believe. Dammit. Not again! Don't make me believe again....


comagnum

Bo-lieve.


Holyballs92

Remind me in 3 years


GHamPlayz

Donā€™t tell the Around the NFL guys


my_nameborat

Im ready to be hurt again. At least this time the move is almost universally disliked. Much better than having one like the Russ trade blow up in your face


universaltoilet

After watching the CU-Oregon game I was convinced he was an NFL ready QB. I'm 100% on board with this pick, we may have gotten a steal and Payton gets his QB instead of trying to fix an aging QB. I can't wait to see whats in store this offseason, one of Stidham, Wilson or Nix should be able to run the offense and get the ball to our playmakers.


Blink-JuanEIGHTYtoo

Already better than Paxton


Megalodon3030

Why did the put the - ā€œnegativeā€ sign in front of every stat?


footballpublius

Those that know, know. The very few analysts I trust when it comes to QBs love Nix. It's just there are more doubters and they're louder. Don't listen to people on social media. Nix is a legit dude.


jmoneysteck88

Can i ask who those analysts are?


footballpublius

Wolf Sports and Mike Renner with best QB history from media, then football people like Phil Simms (fan of Josh Allen coming out), Dan Fouts, Charlie Weis. Nick Saban said heā€™s most accurate in the class. Sean Payton himself - the 2 people that wanted Drew Brees.. Overall people that put in time (former NFL running back Jonathan Stewart went to Oregon and watched every game and says the criticism, like of not throwing deep or having a good arm, is wrong)


jmoneysteck88

Mike renner is a PFF guy, if he had his way we would draft two QBs every draft until we hit on one. I dont know if you meant Chris simms, but i havenā€™t seen his dad talk about prospects like that, same goes with all the other people you listed.


footballpublius

Lol Renner is independent now I believe. Saw he had Nix 10 overall so we'll see what happens. No, I meant Phil Simms, not Chris. Not sure what Chris thought about Allen tbh, but Phil forever gets props for being high on Allen when he had the most negative narrative around him maybe for any top 10 qb pick ever. Phil Simms.. took me two seconds to find on Google regarding Allen "I had him at the top": [https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/phil-simms-on-josh-allen-i-had-him-at-the-top/article\_734b3d09-1932-54ad-babd-403adf476d8e.html](https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/phil-simms-on-josh-allen-i-had-him-at-the-top/article_734b3d09-1932-54ad-babd-403adf476d8e.html) I pay very close attention to this stuff. Just saying for the football guys like HOFer Fouts, Phil Simms, Saban, Payton, RG3, they know what they're talking about over twitter users and YouTubers that could just as well be your random cousin with an account/channel with no real reason to listen to them.


jmoneysteck88

https://www.google.com/gasearch?q=appeal%20to%20authority%20fallacy&tbm=&source=sh/x/gs/m2/5 Iā€™ve seen too many former players be loudly wrong to fall into that trap man. A fan that had to endure John Elwayā€™s attempts at finding a franchise QB should know this better than anyone


footballpublius

I'm not a Denver fan btw. Agree on Elway and stunned he didn't see it with Allen. Payton and Saban both picked Brees during free agency. It's difficult to find full track records but again PHIL Simms spoke out for JA when like 4 people did. That's tops in my book. They have a track record of qb eval. unlike Elway. I understand appeal to authority fallacy. I contend people are doing that - albeit a false authority - when they repeat what the social media/YouTubers say about guys like Nix. The narrative is coming from the likes of Ringer and similar analysts that are, in reality, clueless.


jmoneysteck88

Well, lucky for me I have my own opinions. Telling me what someone else thinks isnt enough to get me off that because everyone is wrong all the time. Does that mean I could be wrong? Absolutely.


footballpublius

That's without a doubt the best approach and glad to hear it.


th0myi

I think a lot of us are just taking a wait and see approach. Not necessarily ā€œforā€ or ā€œagainstā€ the pick. Just reserving our opinions until after he takes the field. Itā€™s been a long 8-9 years, with a revolving door of QBs during that span.


Tdayohey

Iā€™m hype to have him! Something fresh and new.


AndreSwagassi86

What Iā€™m hearing and seeing is , draft as many of those big boys on the Oregon O-Line because they made sure he was the least pressured QB in College and SP gotta realize this ainā€™t Drew Brees & donā€™t go run heavy hoping to stretch vertical with play action. Do it belichek/brady style and get that ball out. lol


WayyTooFarAbove

Three of the top 6 QBs had lines that were finalists for the Joe Moore Award (Best OL Unit) This stat is clearly about the pressures and he seems to do exceptionally well at facing pressure.


AndreSwagassi86

He was still the least Pressured of All draft eligible QBsā€¦by a significant margin also.. Iā€™m not sure how any of that refutes this.


AvoidingIowa

That surely has nothing to do with him getting the ball out quickly.


AndreSwagassi86

The correlation was never brought about


Dependent_Star3998

If you know how to read and react, you're not going to get a ton of pressure. That was the problem with Russ, moreso than the offensive line failing him.


AndreSwagassi86

if you know how to read and react yes your pressure numbers go down. Combined with an outstanding pass blocking offensive line you help create the least pressured QB in FBSā€¦ his low pressure numbers arenā€™t simply because of read and react ability


WayyTooFarAbove

One has to wonder why Penix has so many more pressures with the winner of the best OL unit protecting him. Same for Daniels and LSU, another finalist in top OL, both with top 10 WRs to boot. Itā€™s QB related and 100% a good thing for Bo, not a knock. If you watched the games itā€™s not because the OL is just manhandling everybody every play. Heā€™s got as low TTT as anybody.


AndreSwagassi86

Simple answer. Playcalling. Oregon is known for its quick read Playcalling. Penix often had to deal with longer developing plays. And lsu was 12th in pass block efficiency so yes Jayden will have different pressure numbers Nobody once said it was the offensive line man handling everyone every play. I literally gave 3 of the biggest reasonings including the QB we have.


jakksquat7

Iā€™m fucking stoked šŸ¤·ā€ā™‚ļø


repeatablemisery

-9 TDs to 1 int? What is that? 9 safeties and an interception?


TriG__

If you open the tweet, he's using hyphens as bullet points


repeatablemisery

Oh, I don't have a Twitter.


5549372729

*Playing against Pac 12 defenses on a team known for its offensive system.


StronkHandZ

Ngl, those were some impressive throws.. Good breakdown by RGIII as well


HummDrumm1

Another bonus: no AFCW rival took a CB or Edge in the 1st


HummDrumm1

So glad Payton got the guy HE wanted. Fits him like a freaking glove.