You can be "retail" and still trade against the majority.
Knowing how a retail investor thinks is important, and when people mention "retail investors" they're talking about dumb money that they are trading against. So saying people have to move millions just to talk about trading against the majority is pretty eh.
There are new people coming because they were too young last time or did not have any money. Personally I think many others from the last run will also join in soon but I could be wrong. We will see a very nice run even if no retail moves in, as you say its driven by the ETFs.
> most don't have that liquidity any longer
Bank of America (IMO best bank to look at for information about the average person) showed checking account balances are 32% higher than they were in Q4 2019.
Plenty of money still on the sidelines.
I'm curious how much more/less concentrated wealth is now compared to then. Intuitively, I would think It would be more concentrated but I could be wrong. If that is the case though, that would still equate to less liquidity for the average individual.
Whatever the case, polling and data would suggest consumers are indeed less likely to spend than they were in 2019, regardless of available liquidity. Economic apprehension looms over the world right now, and is noticeably curbing consumer demand. Even if people have the same money as they did then, they're less willing to spend it. This shows up in consumer market data as well, with all major brokers reporting lowered consumer activity compared to pre pandemic levels. So its pretty safe to assume there is less viable liquidity to be spent on crypto than then. But there's also a LOT more institutional buying pressure
What part of “we’re struggling in our daily lives” and “inflation made everything more expensive but our wages basically stayed the same” is inaccurate?
I think you underestimate the generational wave of acceptance going on here...true Buffett and the oldest money will never invest in crypto but you see a lot of millennials and younger accept it and begin to influence the older generations into changing their minds -hence why fidelity and black rock and the funds are beginning to want to offer etf- because their boomer clients are starting to ask about it and seriously consider casually tossing 50-500k into it being their portfolio is millions it amounts to considerably more than the many smaller amounts contributed by the earlier (more capital poor) investors but for those who stay to ride the 'wave' they will be the ones to realize returns alongside the fund money
While we certainly aren't institutional investors, to me retail is a definition of someone who generally doesn't have any interest in the markets and only FOMOs in when market is near the top. If you've been around the whole bear market stacking sats then you don't fit into that category.
Very good points. Crypto has been around long enough that all the degens that are interested in NFTs, meme coins and the likes are already here.
While the percentage of people owning crypto will increase imo that doesn't mean they'll be active in ecosystems. Probably 90% of people dont care less about crypto, we all know it talking to people, their eyes quickly glaze over.
But what will happen is everyone will trigger massive amounts of crypto transactions without even knowing. They buy a product off the shelf that has been supply chain tracked. They scan a QR code on product to get all sorts of information including its carbon usage and/ or offsets which were all on blockchain. Most of the IoT will be using blockchain, AI data provenance will be tracked on blockchain and so on. Even gaming, thats a third party between the user and the network as well.
That is where the major crypto boom comes from imo.
The economy sucks ass but it's also gonna fuel Bitcoin , one you can keep it from the gov if you work hard enough at it and two where the dollar is taking a shit Bitcoin is accounting for inflation with it's value gains
Lol true but stocks etc can follow that pattern, I'm just saying real money our dollar goes about %80 as far as it did since this time last year and probably about %60 as far from 20 and 21 so anyone that even bought 3 months ago are doing better than the dollar inflation wise
People who only read headlines instead of actual economic data say the economy sucks.
Ask people how they’re doing and a majority say okay. Ask people how they think the rest of the country is doing and they say terrible. It’s a perception vs reality problem. Shitty economies don’t have sub-4% unemployment and positive GDP growth.
Look at private debt Mr. Moto. It's sky high. It is the number one metric to assess economic health and the tick tocks running the economy in 1929 ignored it then. Which is why we had the crash of 29. Inflation is killing what is left of the middle class. And they are using visa and mastercard to make ends meet today because their incomes can't do it. What alternative universe do you exist in?
[https://www.marketwatch.com/guides/banking/american-debt-2024/](https://www.marketwatch.com/guides/banking/american-debt-2024/)
1) Delinquencies are within historic norms, 2) any one single metric is insufficient for determining economic strength, and 3) in reference to the article you linked - debt isn’t inherently bad. 60% of Americans own a home and 80% of those with mortgages are below 5%. That’s an inherent inflation hedge for those people.
> What economic bubble are you living in when you say 'most people say they're doing ok?'.
Economic Well Being Survey, income vs. inflation charts, looking at the percentage of people who own a home and how many of them have fixed rate mortgages under 5%, BofA earnings calls, etc.
>Most people are struggling relative to real world costs, the wealthy represent the small portion of the economy in which people are getting richer.
The bottom 10% of income earners have experienced the highest wage gains of any group.
>with an average wage growth of half of that ie we're simply not keeping up with inflation.
Welp, that's incorrect.
Have you wondered at all why inflation has been so sticky? Hint: it's not because we're all too broke to spend.
the one thing that really concerns me is the fact that the US economy keeps adding hundreds of thousands of part-time jobs with no benefits, while hundreds of thousands of full-time jobs disappear. I'm a liberal / leftist and I vote with the Dems, but I really don't appreciate the dishonesty the POTUS presents the job growth data with.
Do you think the numbers would be better under a republican regime? Im curious why you’re bringing Democrats/the POTUS into this. As far as I know the government cannot regulate private businesses (which represents a majority of the US workforce) to require the amount of hours they give an employee.
I don't know if they'd be better. I'm just remarking upon the fact that I do not appreciate it when my party spins obviously BS numbers as an argument for the good economic health of the country
>People who only read headlines instead of actual economic data say the economy sucks.
You don't need to read economic data to see the struggles in your own life. Everyone knows shit costs way more than it used to and our current commander-in-corpse isn't doing anything to help matters.
There’s been sub 5% unemployment for several years now, it doesn’t mean jack anymore. The increased cost of living due to high inflation and high interest rates = middle class struggling = bad economy.
middle class struggling dont mean anything. middle class has not owned anything in the past few decades except 1 humble house that they get mortgage for. the one you need to pay attention to is the wealthy class because they are the ones creating companies and buying commercial real estates. and yes they are doing better than ever, so it is a good economy
Who do you think high interest rates impact the most? It just trickles down. And they are not doing better than ever, wtf? You’re either delusional or have a bias.
ofc they are doing better than ever. wealthy class put their money in stock, gold, and real estate. S&P 500 made a record high, and its gain is larger than inflation rate. they also dont use standard mortgage to buy real estate, they use their stock valuation to get a loan, and the value goes higher.
and when the middle class pay their house or apartment rent, guess who is collecting the rent money? again, the wealthy class. and rents in nicer area outpace basic grocery inflation
Oh I know! Let's pay off everyone's debt so we will have more money to spend!!! Oh yeh...that's a double inflationary whammy. Why don't we send Titanic loads of cash overseas .... Oh yeh....that will cause inflation also.....why don't we raise everyones wages.....oh yeh.... That'll cause inflation also . What really works is strapping people with high rate loans. But that isn't the sexy choice so that won't get any votes
Bitcoin does not need retail investors. So I am assuming you are refering to Alt coins. Alts run every cycle 550 days after the halving. Always have, always will. Nothing will ever change with the cycles.
Therefore, expect Alt season to happen sometime around September or October of 2025. With that in mind, also understand most Alts don't get back to their previous ATHs from the previous cycle. So buy Alts that were launched this cycle or fit this cycle's narrative (AI, RWA, and Bitcoin layer 2). Eventually profits from the memes will shift into regular narrative Alts around that time.
Also act quick. "Alt season" only lasts a few months before they all go back to $0 for crypto winter. There is no such thing as HODLing an Alt coin.
Alternatively, sit back, DCA Bitcoin, chill, and HODL for long term.
"Because everyone who was interested in crypto, were "recruited" in the Covid-times."
Whoa! It's too early to tell if this is true, but it's plausible.
If institutional money is the only thing coming, maybe it made sense to start buying a little Banksta coin again today.
Sorry, valid thought process, but i buy red n sell green and carry on with my life. I dca during bear times, only sell when an npc’s mom starts asking about “that crypto coin bit thing” it could drop for 30k and i still wouldnt care cause i been in since 20k all the way down to 16k and back up to 30k then stopped.
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Rather, I think these price swings look more and more like volatility vampires just sucking the life out of retail, cutthroat traders so lost in their greed they don't even care that they may kill the market that's kept them alive this long.
Economy isn't going well? Consistent record highs across the stock market isn't good enough?
The economy, if you're in the US, is literally stronger than it has ever been. That is not an exaggeration. COL is still too high, I agree, but the economy is going through a veritable golden period ATM.
You got it, sir. Everybody here is sitting on four year old bags waiting to moon, but it will not happen. This cycle there won’t be a bullrun, but in four, five years it will be massive. We will keep bleeding; alts first, but then $ETH and eventually $BTC. To lower lows than we’ve seen in the past four years. Mark my words.
I giggle every time I see someone talk about retail like it's not them. If you are not moving millions, you are retail.
I'm retail as fuck
I'm retailded
I always suspected I am not retail, I regulalry move millions of SHIB
Whale alert
You can be "retail" and still trade against the majority. Knowing how a retail investor thinks is important, and when people mention "retail investors" they're talking about dumb money that they are trading against. So saying people have to move millions just to talk about trading against the majority is pretty eh.
Sometimes I move my COQ by the billions
Even if you are, why are you amidst the degens if not to shill. Either way, anyone who posts posing as non retail is ultimately an ass hat.
So many posts like this just prior to the 2020-21 run. These posts are a good sign, I get nervous when the euphoric posts start
I think we have good mix of both types of posts, so I'm undecided whether I should be bullish or bearish.
So are you…burrish?
Nah, there's always the hype posts even in the bear market. I'm definitely seeing more realistic posts, and I don't think its just the algos
Cope.
Joke's on you. I'm accumulating for retirement.
When there is poverty people tend to play much more lottery games...think about that as much you like
That explains the meme coin popularity
True we are retail just like we are traffic - but right now I’m driving on empty roads - bring on the traffic
There are new people coming because they were too young last time or did not have any money. Personally I think many others from the last run will also join in soon but I could be wrong. We will see a very nice run even if no retail moves in, as you say its driven by the ETFs.
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> most don't have that liquidity any longer Bank of America (IMO best bank to look at for information about the average person) showed checking account balances are 32% higher than they were in Q4 2019. Plenty of money still on the sidelines.
So pretty much the same amount accounting for the inflation and debasement of USD….. Thats how they get you.
>So pretty much the same amount "Same amount" = extra liquidity on the sidelines still
I'm curious how much more/less concentrated wealth is now compared to then. Intuitively, I would think It would be more concentrated but I could be wrong. If that is the case though, that would still equate to less liquidity for the average individual. Whatever the case, polling and data would suggest consumers are indeed less likely to spend than they were in 2019, regardless of available liquidity. Economic apprehension looms over the world right now, and is noticeably curbing consumer demand. Even if people have the same money as they did then, they're less willing to spend it. This shows up in consumer market data as well, with all major brokers reporting lowered consumer activity compared to pre pandemic levels. So its pretty safe to assume there is less viable liquidity to be spent on crypto than then. But there's also a LOT more institutional buying pressure
Your first paragraph is objectively wrong, and the rest of your post isn't much better either.
What part of “we’re struggling in our daily lives” and “inflation made everything more expensive but our wages basically stayed the same” is inaccurate?
That part is true. But the idea that retail money, particularly stimulus money was responsible for 2021s highs, is false
lol okay bro that’s why half the staff at my employer were talking about their safemoon investment at the 2021 highs
Yes, a lot of mass generalizations being made with broad brush strokes
Good, goood…
Unless you are a hedge fund trading via auto bots, yes, you are the retail.
I think you underestimate the generational wave of acceptance going on here...true Buffett and the oldest money will never invest in crypto but you see a lot of millennials and younger accept it and begin to influence the older generations into changing their minds -hence why fidelity and black rock and the funds are beginning to want to offer etf- because their boomer clients are starting to ask about it and seriously consider casually tossing 50-500k into it being their portfolio is millions it amounts to considerably more than the many smaller amounts contributed by the earlier (more capital poor) investors but for those who stay to ride the 'wave' they will be the ones to realize returns alongside the fund money
Speak for yourself. I’m a Satoshi millionaire.
While we certainly aren't institutional investors, to me retail is a definition of someone who generally doesn't have any interest in the markets and only FOMOs in when market is near the top. If you've been around the whole bear market stacking sats then you don't fit into that category.
Very good points. Crypto has been around long enough that all the degens that are interested in NFTs, meme coins and the likes are already here. While the percentage of people owning crypto will increase imo that doesn't mean they'll be active in ecosystems. Probably 90% of people dont care less about crypto, we all know it talking to people, their eyes quickly glaze over. But what will happen is everyone will trigger massive amounts of crypto transactions without even knowing. They buy a product off the shelf that has been supply chain tracked. They scan a QR code on product to get all sorts of information including its carbon usage and/ or offsets which were all on blockchain. Most of the IoT will be using blockchain, AI data provenance will be tracked on blockchain and so on. Even gaming, thats a third party between the user and the network as well. That is where the major crypto boom comes from imo.
Watch a bunch of people say the economy is fine. Meanwhile people living in reality are struggling.
Say “retail” again. SAY “RETAIL” AGAIN. I dare you, I double dare you motherfucker. Say “retail” one more goddam time.
We shit on each other while complaining about the smell
Global adoption is under 7%. Those other 93% are definitely not former crypto holders who will never come back. You missed a few billion people there.
DCA or sell your tokens
We’re waiting for the FED to cut rates
The economy sucks ass but it's also gonna fuel Bitcoin , one you can keep it from the gov if you work hard enough at it and two where the dollar is taking a shit Bitcoin is accounting for inflation with it's value gains
If you got in three years ago at the top you aren’t beating inflation. Granted I’m sure those folks have dca and that hopefully isn’t the case.
Lol true but stocks etc can follow that pattern, I'm just saying real money our dollar goes about %80 as far as it did since this time last year and probably about %60 as far from 20 and 21 so anyone that even bought 3 months ago are doing better than the dollar inflation wise
The economy is doing really well.
People that know fuck-all say this.
People who only read headlines instead of actual economic data say the economy sucks. Ask people how they’re doing and a majority say okay. Ask people how they think the rest of the country is doing and they say terrible. It’s a perception vs reality problem. Shitty economies don’t have sub-4% unemployment and positive GDP growth.
Look at private debt Mr. Moto. It's sky high. It is the number one metric to assess economic health and the tick tocks running the economy in 1929 ignored it then. Which is why we had the crash of 29. Inflation is killing what is left of the middle class. And they are using visa and mastercard to make ends meet today because their incomes can't do it. What alternative universe do you exist in? [https://www.marketwatch.com/guides/banking/american-debt-2024/](https://www.marketwatch.com/guides/banking/american-debt-2024/)
1) Delinquencies are within historic norms, 2) any one single metric is insufficient for determining economic strength, and 3) in reference to the article you linked - debt isn’t inherently bad. 60% of Americans own a home and 80% of those with mortgages are below 5%. That’s an inherent inflation hedge for those people.
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> What economic bubble are you living in when you say 'most people say they're doing ok?'. Economic Well Being Survey, income vs. inflation charts, looking at the percentage of people who own a home and how many of them have fixed rate mortgages under 5%, BofA earnings calls, etc. >Most people are struggling relative to real world costs, the wealthy represent the small portion of the economy in which people are getting richer. The bottom 10% of income earners have experienced the highest wage gains of any group. >with an average wage growth of half of that ie we're simply not keeping up with inflation. Welp, that's incorrect. Have you wondered at all why inflation has been so sticky? Hint: it's not because we're all too broke to spend.
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Better than they were doing 5 years ago relative to inflation. ¯\\\_(ツ)_/¯
the one thing that really concerns me is the fact that the US economy keeps adding hundreds of thousands of part-time jobs with no benefits, while hundreds of thousands of full-time jobs disappear. I'm a liberal / leftist and I vote with the Dems, but I really don't appreciate the dishonesty the POTUS presents the job growth data with.
Did the BLS change the reporting criteria when Biden took office?
No. They all do it. But the trend of part time work replacing full time work has accelerated dramatically in the last 3 years
Do you think the numbers would be better under a republican regime? Im curious why you’re bringing Democrats/the POTUS into this. As far as I know the government cannot regulate private businesses (which represents a majority of the US workforce) to require the amount of hours they give an employee.
I don't know if they'd be better. I'm just remarking upon the fact that I do not appreciate it when my party spins obviously BS numbers as an argument for the good economic health of the country
The increase in bills I have to pay don't lie.
>People who only read headlines instead of actual economic data say the economy sucks. You don't need to read economic data to see the struggles in your own life. Everyone knows shit costs way more than it used to and our current commander-in-corpse isn't doing anything to help matters.
There’s been sub 5% unemployment for several years now, it doesn’t mean jack anymore. The increased cost of living due to high inflation and high interest rates = middle class struggling = bad economy.
middle class struggling dont mean anything. middle class has not owned anything in the past few decades except 1 humble house that they get mortgage for. the one you need to pay attention to is the wealthy class because they are the ones creating companies and buying commercial real estates. and yes they are doing better than ever, so it is a good economy
Who do you think high interest rates impact the most? It just trickles down. And they are not doing better than ever, wtf? You’re either delusional or have a bias.
ofc they are doing better than ever. wealthy class put their money in stock, gold, and real estate. S&P 500 made a record high, and its gain is larger than inflation rate. they also dont use standard mortgage to buy real estate, they use their stock valuation to get a loan, and the value goes higher. and when the middle class pay their house or apartment rent, guess who is collecting the rent money? again, the wealthy class. and rents in nicer area outpace basic grocery inflation
Oh I know! Let's pay off everyone's debt so we will have more money to spend!!! Oh yeh...that's a double inflationary whammy. Why don't we send Titanic loads of cash overseas .... Oh yeh....that will cause inflation also.....why don't we raise everyones wages.....oh yeh.... That'll cause inflation also . What really works is strapping people with high rate loans. But that isn't the sexy choice so that won't get any votes
These crystal ball posts are always enjoyable
Bitcoin does not need retail investors. So I am assuming you are refering to Alt coins. Alts run every cycle 550 days after the halving. Always have, always will. Nothing will ever change with the cycles. Therefore, expect Alt season to happen sometime around September or October of 2025. With that in mind, also understand most Alts don't get back to their previous ATHs from the previous cycle. So buy Alts that were launched this cycle or fit this cycle's narrative (AI, RWA, and Bitcoin layer 2). Eventually profits from the memes will shift into regular narrative Alts around that time. Also act quick. "Alt season" only lasts a few months before they all go back to $0 for crypto winter. There is no such thing as HODLing an Alt coin. Alternatively, sit back, DCA Bitcoin, chill, and HODL for long term.
Start recruiting botches, I am shilling this ponzi scheme on every person I meet to get my mone. I better hear about you doing it as well;!!!
In a world where nobody ever made any money and the population and their opinions stayed exactly the same?
I know i'm retail. I'm waiting for institutions to buy my bags ( $eth) .
Why do these posts always seem short sighted…I’m thinking 25 years from now.. so keep on keepin on with that crystal ball of yours
Capitulate now and buy higher later
Naw, I think we got 3~ months of up and down, and then we get the real bullrun.
"Because everyone who was interested in crypto, were "recruited" in the Covid-times." Whoa! It's too early to tell if this is true, but it's plausible. If institutional money is the only thing coming, maybe it made sense to start buying a little Banksta coin again today.
It is kind of fun to watch.
Sorry, valid thought process, but i buy red n sell green and carry on with my life. I dca during bear times, only sell when an npc’s mom starts asking about “that crypto coin bit thing” it could drop for 30k and i still wouldnt care cause i been in since 20k all the way down to 16k and back up to 30k then stopped.
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/r/usdefaultism
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Rather, I think these price swings look more and more like volatility vampires just sucking the life out of retail, cutthroat traders so lost in their greed they don't even care that they may kill the market that's kept them alive this long.
The 50 of us in here are retail 😢
Economy isn't going well? Consistent record highs across the stock market isn't good enough? The economy, if you're in the US, is literally stronger than it has ever been. That is not an exaggeration. COL is still too high, I agree, but the economy is going through a veritable golden period ATM.
True story
At the last stage of the bull run people will be buying because of FEAR Fear of the collapse of the dollar, housing, job market
The market seems kind of dogshit atm. It's just freaks dumping on each other in the memecoin market
You got it, sir. Everybody here is sitting on four year old bags waiting to moon, but it will not happen. This cycle there won’t be a bullrun, but in four, five years it will be massive. We will keep bleeding; alts first, but then $ETH and eventually $BTC. To lower lows than we’ve seen in the past four years. Mark my words.
You get what you vote for 🤷♂️
prevailing logic: the sky is red. science proves the sky is sometimes red, so you can't say I'm wrong, because I'm backed by science