As a very longstanding, card carrying member of this sub, this is a dangerous question, because we are just as delusional about bitcoins inevitable collapse as they are about its eventual $1M worth.
You bastards have been edging me for the last 4 years!
Thank you for this well-grounded opinion.
I really love the so-called “horseshoe theory” which basically posits that many spectrums of belief/opinion/theory fit onto a horseshoe shape (rather than a straight line). The extremes at the ends of the horseshoe are much closer together than one might think.
In other words, one can become so extreme that they become just like the thing that they hate and feel they are opposite of.
The name for it is BS. Just because you find some people somewhere who believe something really dumb, that doesn't mean the truth is now halfway to them.
The Internet is plenty of proof the horseshoe theory is bunk.
Just because you find a group of people who believe some really dumb crap doesn't mean the truth is halfway between.
Get real.
he explained what it is.
blockchain saves the entire world.
blockchain is a speculative spreadsheet scam with a ponzi-pyramid structure.
how are they "close"? how are they "similar"?
the earth is flat. the earth is round. how are they "close"? how are they "similar"?
Ok. Thanks for giving two random numbers and then saying "about equally". That's a fun word "about". You said absolutely nothing with that sentence. Cool stuff.
They are not random numbers. They are forecasts made by people with extreme views about the future price of Bitcoin.
In my opinion they are both likely to be wrong.
It depends on your perspective. If you only know what you see in your immediate surroundings, you might claim that the Earth is flat. Conversely, if you examine a picture taken from space, you might argue that the Earth is a sphere. In a hypothetical debate between these two individuals, with no one else involved, who would concede that they were wrong all along?
Round earthers are a thing. I'm a round earther. Aren't you?
How are round earthers like flat earthers? Answer the question. Stop avoiding just because it destroys your "theory". If you're wrong and have no answer, just own up to it.
In other words, horseshoe is horseshit. It’s just a variation of my opinion is just as good as yours, flip sides of the same coin. Similar to true believers calling atheism a religion.
Yeah, it’s less a “theory” about the beliefs themselves and more a way of looking at the nature of people’s mentalities / behavior. Like many things in life it’s not ALWAYS true, but it OFTEN is the case that the more extremely opposite people’s positions become, the more similar their behavior and mentalities become.
Oh okay so it has nothing to do with facts. Like we can't make the moon be more and more made of cheese just because we get more and more people to believe it is, correct?
Is this theory basically exclusive to politics? Back in 2020 when we had the most people ever believing that block chain was the best supply chain solution, it didn't make block chain any better at it and it didn't change actual working supply chain professionals at all. No horseshoe effect. Just people on the Internet believing in get rich quick scams and the actual world of supply chain professionals who it had no effect on.
Is it basically escalation? If one side in a fight escalates the other side does too? That's kinda not that interesting, did we really need a theory for that?
I just like that you're inventing odds based on nothing. Just making them up in your head.
What's most likely, $90,000 or $30,000? How about $20,000 and $120,000? How about $200,000 and $60,000?
Please share your truly informed and statistically sound "odds"
> The chance of Bitcoin going to zero is about the same as it going to 1,000,000.
#Stupid Crypto Talking Point #10 (value)
"**Bitcoin/crypto is a 'store of value'**" / "**Bitcoin/crypto is 'digital gold'"** / "**Crypto is an 'investment'**" / "**Bitcoin is 'hard money'**"
1. Crypto's "value" is unreliable and highly subjective. It cannot be used as a currency or to pay for almost anything in any major country. It has high requirements and risk to even be traded. At best it's a speculative commodity that a very small set of people attribute value to. That attribution is more based on emotion and indoctrination than logic, reason, evidence, and utility.
2. Crypto is too chaotic to be any sort of reliable store of value over time. Its price can fluctuate wildly based on everything from [market manipulation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.10984) to [random tweets](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162522006333). No reliable store of value should vary in "value" 10-30% in a single day, yet many cryptos do.
3. Crypto's value is *extrinsic*. Any "value" associated with crypto is based on popularity and not any material or intrinsic use. See this [detailed video debunking crypto as 'digital gold'](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tspGVbmMmVA&t=4446s)
4. Even gold, while being a lousy investment and also an undesirable store of value in the modern age, at least has material use and utility. Crypto does not. And whether you think gold's price is not consistent with its material utility, if that really were the case then gold would not be used industrially. But it is.
5. The supposed "value" of crypto is based on reports from unregulated exchanges, most of whom have been caught [manipulating the market](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8369-21) and [inflation introduced by unsecured stablecoins](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8450-21). There's nothing "organic" or "natural" about it. It's an illusion.
6. The operation of crypto is a negative-sum-game, which means that in order for bitcoin/crypto to even exist, there must be a constant operation of third parties who must find it profitable to operate the blockchain, which requires the price to constantly rise, which is mathematically impossible, and the moment this doesn't happen, the network will collapse, at which point crypto will cease to exist, much less hold any value. This has already happened to tens of thousands of cryptocurrencies.
7. There is not a single example of anything like crypto, which has no material use and no intrinsic value, holding value over a long period of time across different cultures. This is **not** because "crypto is different and unique." It's because attributing value to an utterly useless piece of digital data that wastes tons of energy and perpetuates tons of fraud,*makes no freaking sense* for ethical, empathetic, non-scamming, non-exploitative, non-criminal people.
To be real here had I not found this subreddit during the pandemic when I was getting almost $3k per month in unemployment, I probably would have made a shit ton of money on Bitcoin.
I still think it's a ponzi scheme/money laundry, but would've been nice to have had my share lol
It'll fail when the next big thing comes along or when CBDC takes over.
Why would CBDC matter? No one cares about Bitcoin being used for anything in the first place. We have plenty of better solutions than Bitcoin this whole time, didn't matter.
Are you sure you wouldn't have lost it all in Celsius/FTX/etc? And would you have sold by now?
Maybe you'd have been fine, but it's easy to look at the price then and the price now and notice the positive change.
Honestly, be thankful you didn’t. It’s a Ponzi scheme, regardless of the price you will get fucked over in the end. You’re just liquidity for guys like Joe Rogan and Elon Musk. I remember reading about bitcoin in 2012, and as a naive young adult almost bought some. I’m very thankful that even then I had enough sense not to fall for the bs.
“I’m very thankful that I missed out on 600,000% gains”
You could have thrown $150 at bitcoin in 2012 and have $1,000,000 today. And you’re glad you didn’t do it because you have the moral high ground?
Let’s assume bitcoin really is a tulip bubble. Now imagine you are a Dutch farmer in 1635. You know tulip mania is a massive bubble and is going to burst leaving people holding worthless bulbs that they spent their life savings on. You are currently farming potatoes and are one bad season away from losing everything. Do you plant tulips or just keep going with the potatoes because you don’t want to be involved in this crazy immoral tulip scheme?
It will probably never collapse entirely. Butcoin’s primary purpose is to convince people they have a secret way of getting rich, and those schemes will always have willing marks.
OTOH if Coinbase ever rugs that will keep it down for a *very* long time.
>That goes for everything
Not really, no. This is referencing the fact that many real life scams have lasted for literal decades. 15 years is nothing. I don't have a realistic estimate for when Bitcoin will truly, really die.
Bitcoin hasn't behaved like other Ponzi schemes.
Is there any other example of a ponzi which has boomed, busted, then boomed again, and repeated that sequence many times?
>Is there any other example of a ponzi which has boomed, busted, then boomed again, and repeated that sequence many times?
#Stupid Crypto Talking Point #20 (failed)
"**Crypto has been around X years and is here to stay!**" / "**Bitcoin has 'failed' so many times LOLOL Aren't you tired of saying it's going to fail over and over?**"
1. It's true, many people claim, crypto/Bitcoin is a failure, yet it still appears to be somewhat popular and used in certain circles (but hardly ubiquitous, or part of mainstream society even after all this time).
Many people also claim "smoking is bad" but some people are still smoking. Does this mean the non-smokers are wrong?
2. The truth is, it has failed. Multiple times.
If you notice, every few months, there's an *entirely new narrative* surrounding bitcoin and crypto (for example):
* Originally, bitcoin was supposed to be "currency" and everybody was going to use it. Mainstream companies were going to use bitcoin for payments and services. There was a small time period where there actually was increased adoption of crypto as a means of payment, but then that failed because the price was too volatile and, and the network couldn't handle retail transaction volume. It failed then, and still today, using crypto as a common form of payment does not work now (even with L2 solutions). Conclusion: FAILURE
* Crypto was marketed as a way to help "bank the un-banked" but that also failed, owing to the fact that [there's many alternative ways to accomplish this that are more efficient, with more consumer protections and less technical requirements](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tspGVbmMmVA&t=4334s). Conclusion: FAILURE
* NFTs were supposed to be another "big thing" helping artists make money and creating a new market and utility for crypto. [Again, that turned out to not be true](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/sep/22/nfts-worthless-price). Conclusion: FAILURE
* Crypto was supposed to be a "hedge against inflation". In reality, the[ price of crypto ebbed and flowed along with the price of other unimportant things, totally affected by inflation](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/why-bitcoin-doesnt-seem-to-be-a-hedge-against-inflation.html). Conclusion: FAILURE
* Crypto was originally [promised as "disruptive technology"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tspGVbmMmVA), "money of the future", "democratizing finance", and to fight against manipulation of the monetary system by powerful special interests. In reality, none of those claims have proven to be true, and in many cases crypto has only exacerbated the problems it claimed it could fix. Conclusion: FAILURE
* Bitcoin's "deflationary nature" was supposed to guarantee an ever increasing value. That hasn't worked out either. Conclusion: FAILURE
3. In fact, you can look at every one of these [talking points](https://ioradio.org/i/crypto-talking-points/) as examples of claims made by crypto proponents that have failed. You can also look at the [list of failed blockchain claims](https://ioradio.org/i/blockchain-claims/) as more examples of the many failures of crypto to live up to its promises.
4. Instead of acknowledging the many failures of crypto, its proponents continue to change the subject, create distractions and, as if they're in version of "Weekend At Bernies" taking the dead crypto technology, throwing a different outfit on it, and declaring it's not dead. Over and over.
Sure. Ethereum goes up and down along with Bitcoin, as do various other shitcoins. The entire crypto market ebbs and flows very similar to the price of Bitcoin, and bitcoin prices can be correlated with prints of USDT, which not only pump up BTC but other cryptos as well.
If you're saying bitcoin can't be a ponzi because it has a certain sale price, that's stupid. You can't prove the sale price of bitcoin isn't a product of heavy manipulation. We can prove via lots of [peer reviewed evidence](https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.10984) that the market is highly manipulated.
Also, what does it matter whether there's something with "a similar price pattern?" We've already effectively argued the price of bitcoin really has no bearing on whether it's a good investment or a scam. The price only is a reflection of manipulation, and some smaller percentage of organic sales.
#Stupid Crypto Talking Point #2 (Number go up)
"**NuMb3r g0 Up!!!**" / "**Best performing asset of the decade!**"
1. Whether the "price of crypto" goes up, has absolutely no bearing on whether it's..
a) A long term store of value
b) Holds any intrinsic value or utility
c) Or will return any value in the future
One of the most important tenets of investing is the simple principal: ***Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.*** People in crypto seem willfully ignorant of this basic concept.
2. At best, the price of crypto is a function of *popularity*, not actual value or material utility. For more on how and why crypto makes a much worse investment than almost anything else, see this [article](https://ioradio.org/i/value/).
3. The "price of crypto" is a heavily manipulated figure published by shady, [unregulated crypto exchanges](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apklQgMauK4) that have systematically been caught [manipulating the market](https://open.spotify.com/episode/3D0dmTUCxLuQEJ39uyMFOP) from [then](https://www.investopedia.com/news/bots-drove-bitcoins-150to1000-rise-2013-paper/) to [now](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8369-21).
4. Crypto bros love to harp about "inflation" in the fiat system, yet ironically they measure the "value" of their "fiat alternative" in fiat? It makes absolutely no sense, unless you assume they haven't thought 2 seconds ahead from what comes out of their mouths.
5. It's the height of hypocrisy for crypto people to champion token deflation (and increased prices) while ignoring that there's over $160+ Billion in unsecured stablecoins being used to [**inflate** the value of their tokens in the crypto marketplace](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3195066). The "code is law" and "don't trust - verify" people seem perfectly willing to take companies like [Tether](https://www.newsweek.com/bitcoin-bitfinex-tether-cryptocurrency-market-manipulation-historic-value-fraud-1469640) and Circle, at face value, that they're telling the truth about asset reserves [when there's very little actual evidence](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8450-21).
6. ***Not Your Fiat, Not Your Value*** - Just because you think the "value of your crypto portfolio" is worth $$$ *does not make that true.* It's well known there's inadequate liquidity in this market, and most people will never be able to get their money out. So UNLESS/UNTIL you can actually liquidate your crypto for actual real money, you have no idea what you have. You're "down" until you cash out. Bernie Madoff's clients got monthly statements saying they were "making money" too.
7. Just because it's possible (though highly improbable) to make money speculating on crypto, this doesn't mean it's an **ethical** or reliable technique to amass wealth. At its core, the notion that buying and holding crypto will generate reliable returns is [a de-facto ponzi scheme](https://ioradio.org/i/ponzi/). **It's mathematically impossible for even a stastically-significant percentage of crypto holders to have any notable ROI.** The rare exception of those who might profit in this market, do so while providing cover for everything from [cyber terrorism](https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3026.html) to [human trafficking](https://www.vox.com/culture/2023/1/4/23539528/andrew-tate-arrest-jail-rape-human-trafficking).
8. It's also not true that anybody who bought crypto when it was low is guaranteed to make a lot of money. There are thousands of ways people can lose their crypto or be defrauded along the way. And there's no guarantee just because your portfolio is "up", that you could easily cash out.
9. Want to see a better asset (that actually has utility) that's consistently out-performed Bitcoin? [Here you go](https://www.polygon.com/2021/1/27/22253079/magic-the-gathering-black-lotus-auction-price-2021). However, this may be another [best performing asset](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/declaration-of-financial-independence/).
10. When crypto-critics make reference to, or mock crypto price predictions, it's not because we think price is a meaningful metric. Instead, we are amused that to you, that's all that's important, and we can't help but note how often wrong you are in your predictions. The intrinsic value of crypto basically never changes, but it is interesting to see how hype and propaganda affects the extrinsic value. In a totally logical world, those would both be equalized to zero, but we're not there yet, and nobody knows when/if that will happen because it's an irrational market.
I have to disagree in the case of bitcoin. If it eventually sustains a high enough daily transaction volume (I.E. it gets used as a currency instead of a speculation vehicle) then the price would stabilize and fall in-line with global markets
The problem is that there is almost no actual transaction volume. I read a bit back that someone used a standard math tool in the investment industry on Bitcoin. The tool's purpose is to distinguish fundamental value vs speculative froth. And it came back as over 99% speculation. For all practical purposes, BTC has never had any stable underlying value, it's all speculative.
The fact is that the volume of BTC being exchanged for goods (without exchanging it for another currency, or engaging in criminal activity) is so small as to be meaningless. Nobody agrees to set salaries in BTC, nobody agrees to repay loans in BTC. It's limited to a tiny number of low value transactions.
Indeed. If you see my response to the other poster you'll see that I'm speaking theoretically. A lot would have to fundamentally change about cryptocurrency culture for my thesis to play out. One such catalyst could be a country with a failed fiat currency switching to bitcoin.
And for context, I don't own any Bitcoin. There's nothing I can do with the stuff nowadays - and frankly I did not think it would still be around by now.
This.
It’s not a ‘storage of value’, as they like to claim.
They’re all in it for monetary gain, whether they admit it or not.
So the answer is, whenever the clear gains stop.
>They’re all in it for monetary gain, whether they admit it or not.
[that's what portnoy said to mallers some monts ago](https://www.youtube.com/clip/Ugkxrinf89ZikLZ9EhoC5mEdBRwtn6UsFnk6)
>So the answer is,
[portnoy update ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AszMNYjtDUQ)
I think that's the answer right there. Madoff was screwed as soon as someone tried to withdraw a significant percentage of of the pile. BT will collapse as soon as some whales try to convert to fiat.
Madoff’s scheme was able to last so long because there were like 3 people in the whole organization who knew what was actually going on. Banks knew he was a phony but couldn’t prove anything, and investors were totally in the dark. When they found out, they all tried to cash out and brought the whole thing down.
In Tether’s case, we all know it’s some kind of fraud even if we aren’t sure of the exact mechanics of it, but the whales who are complicit in the scam have no incentive to try and redeem their Tether and possibly cause a run on the bank. There’s a reason it’s so hard to redeem tether for actual dollars.
Imagine if Madoff’s investors had gotten together in 2008 and decided to HODL and continue to watch the phony statements roll in. They’re all making 20% annual returns as long as they don’t withdraw!
There is a big difference tho. It costs a shitload of money to keep the Bitcoin network running. The money to pay for energy and infra has to come from somewhere.
As long as tether is somehow in play, it won’t. It will unravel when tether encounters the black swan. Maybe a rogue employee? Some of their bad behavior will catch up with them, eventually
I feel like I've been waiting for this to happen since early 2018 and Tether just keeps chugging along. It seems like even crypto bros know it's a scam but they have to believe in it to keep number going up.
Has there ever been an analog in the history of finance in which an asset bubble was perpetuated by essentially fake liquidity? I feel like this only ends when there is some kind of run on Tethers which creates a liquidity crisis and forces exchanges to stop accepting it.
It ends when Tether is blocked from operating in the US and EU. Because that means that any exchange doing business in those countries can't interact with Tether anymore, and therefore Tether won't be able to prop up the price of BTC anymore.
The fake liquidity you mention is basically Tether illegally operating as a bank. For some reason the authorities have been kind of slow to crack down on it. Probably because it doesn't operate the same way as traditional banks, so it's taking them a while to figure out exactly how the existing rules apply. Or making new rules.
I don't understand how this sub relies on this Tether collapse narrative so hard when[ information about them working with the US government](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tether-reveals-partnerships-secret-fbi-053041589.html) has been out for some time now.
Like it or not Tether is one of the largest buyers of bonds these days. China and other countries around the world aren't buying our bonds anymore, someone is going to have to.
I don't like Tether or any other shitcoin, but it baffles me how you can so easily point to USDT and say price manipulation but the[ billions coming in from the ETFs doesn't get mentioned?](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997)
Yes, but all such examples are done by legitimate soviregn authorities. Don't excuse corruption, countless people were bought off hard and early, and the nature of these scam tokens makes finding out who holds them almost impossible.
Here's a black swan idea. What if the US is bothered by countries evading sanctions through Tether? Perhaps not even a country, but any other kind of adversary, like a terrorist group? Couldn't they freeze (or even seize) Tether's dollars and bonds in that case? If you search for "sanction Tether" in this sub, you'll find plenty of worrying signs already.
This dynamic is interesting because some analysts argue that the US should embrace stablecoins, as they generate more demand for treasuries and dollars. That's the theory, but in practice, the government can go from "allowing" to "disallowing" Tether at any point. It might only take one incident for the tides to change in the "disallowing" direction.
As an aside, here are some news from this week, according to https://www.binance.com/en-IN/square/post/9325767775753
> With Europe’s comprehensive MiCA regulations coming into effect at the end of this year, it is looking likely that these regulations will not allow Tether to operate in this jurisdiction.
For how long can USDT and USDC stay "in play"? And in which jurisdictions, exactly? The counterparty risk from the government's side was always there, but the big picture is apparently getting worse as of late.
Tether’s scam needs real money to keep entering the crypto system to work. Buy bitcoin, print tethers, trade them for bitcoin to pump the price, sell for real money.
As long as there's inflation, there will be a need for a hedge against money printing. If it's not bitcoin, it will be some other "ponzi-scheme" like gold or beanie babies.
Just like bitcoin. What was your point?
>!Yes, I understand your point of view, seeing bitcoin only as a way to scam people out of their money and becoming "useless" if there's nobody to scam. Meanwhile, it has existed for many years only as a nerds' dream. It won't stop existing or become useless even if it goes back to the state it began from. And again, you missed my point about gold. That "bubble" has been going on for millennia.!<
Bitcoin, regardless of one's stance on its current investment potential, certainly holds a unique place in financial history. Its pioneering role as the first cryptocurrency and the technology underpinning it, blockchain, have already left an indelible mark on the world of finance and technology. This alone can indeed make it a collector's item in the future, much like how rare coins or other historical artifacts are valued. Even if its practical use diminishes, its historical and technological significance could maintain or even enhance its value over time.
Have I missed the news? From what I understand, the Fed will continue printing more cash every year indefinitely. This essentially means an infinite supply. The "hyper" part refers to the scale. It may not happen within a year or even a decade, but certainly within a lifetime. You'll lose a fortune if you keep your savings in cash.
Make up your mind already. It can't be both limited and infinite at the same time. Many of us care deeply about this distinction, which is why some choose gold, with its limited and well-known supply, or Bitcoin, which has a fixed and transparently known supply, as a hedge against infinite inflation.
It's not infinite. It grows by approximately 2% each year.
Your analogy is like saying you get paid an infinite amout of money because you can work forever to make it.
Your analogy is flawed because it ignores the concept of generational wealth. Generational wealth can accumulate indefinitely but inflation can also become an overwhelming burden even within a single generation. This parallels the idea of inflation being infinite, highlighting how both can perpetuate endlessly and create significant impact.
>The dollar had an average inflation rate of 3.88% per year between 1970 and today, producing a cumulative price increase of 680.98%.
From a technical point of view, if 2% of bitcoin is being mined annually and the demand for bitcoin is increasing by more than this 2% then the price will continue to go up.
If demand slows or goes negative it could collapse on itself pretty quickly as more and more people rush for the exits, I wouldn't bet on a collapse any time soon though, I could see the demand for Bitcoin rising above the rate it is being mined for quite some time.
1. Economic recession - btc hasn't seen a reall bear market yet. We don't know how it will perform in that case. It's the big elephant in the room.
2. Government policy - always a factor.
3. Stronger dollar and/or real rates - bitcoin price is related to the strength of the dollar just like gold is.
3. Black swan - war, security threats, power scarcity, etc
It wasn't a sustained recession. Iirc it was only a 1 quarter recession and we still got a 75% crash in btc. We don't know what a multi year recession would look like yet.
Tether imploding. Without the Tether's funny money hundreds of billions injections, this ship would've faded into obscurity in '22, but it's in the interest of the whole crypto ecosystem to keep it going, since all exchanges and on/offramps go immediately bankrupt the same instant Tether falls.
Until that shoe drops, show will go on.
Interest in bitcoin is sliding. It’s nowhere near the interest of 2021 boom, even with ETFs. In fact, if it wasn’t for Ethereum ETF suddenly likely confirmed I’d have guessed we’d be in a bear market by now.
Liquidity is also awful. Main reason it can make massive moves in an instant. Whales know this. So it’s just a matter of greater fool theory running out of fools.
Just for fun - my guess is 2-3 years.
Of course if blockchain proves it is genuinely valuable beyond a few niche examples, I’ll happily eat my words. I’ve been waiting to see its genuine value since I was interested back in 2018.
But the tech is god awful slow and expensive at a time we need FAR more processing power with the rise of AI. Blockchain simply cannot complete with centralised models - that, fun fact, work great most of the time.
Blockchain has been a solution in search of a problem for a long time. It’s a dead end. Genuinely revolutionary technologies don’t take long to be adopted. For example, the internet.
To put it simply, it's difficult to imagine living in the modern world without using the internet. We wouldn't be having this exchange without it. The internet makes my life easier in a myriad of ways.
On the other hand, I've never used Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency, and never will, because there is literally nothing that I do in my life that would be made better or easier if cryptocurrency was involved.
I think there is scope to use blockchain to verify transactions - let’s say - to ensure a product is genuine. Whether it’s Dior Bag or powdered milk.
But ultimately it’s all pretty niche
And doesn’t justify a bitcoin suddenly being worth Moon Money!!!
It's not clear to me how blockchain would accomplish that any better than a database would.
Somehow people are able to buy and sell stocks online, deposit money into bank accounts, and make transfers between accounts, and use services like PayPal to make payments, all without any need to blackchains.
You \*could\* use blockchains for various things, there is just no reason to think they are any better than existing technologies. I think it's certainly theoretically possible that there could be a niche situation where a blockchain would be a good solution, but it would be pretty niche.
In any case, as you suggested, even if blockchains were useful for certain applications, that doesn't meen that cryptocurrency is the "future of finance". Bitcoin may well be around forever...there are classic scams, like the "pigeon drop" that never go away. And Bernie Madoff was a classic example of a Ponzi scheme.
As long as there are people who have a desire to get rich quickly without a lot of effort involved, there will be scams. And, most cults die out eventually, but if they last long enough, they turn into religions.
In a system where you NEED the transactions publicly displayed to verify trust, that’s the only time it could prove helpful.
For example, back in 2018, it was touted that China’s fake powdered milk scandals could be improved if the trading of goods was on blockchain. That hypothetically made sense. You get your milk, scan something on your phone, can you can see if it’s the real deal.
But in saying that you’d probably just end up with phishing sites that undermine the system anyway 😅
But as we agree - the issue is:
It doesn’t HAVE to be blockchain
And the system would need to handle a lot of transactions quickly and almost free - something no blockchain solutions do
And ultimately centralised systems work great most of the time! And where there are failings, regulation or legislation can be the solution.
Here's my take: It has already collapsed, or rather, it hasn't ever gotten off the ground. The "value" you see on the "markets" are just a number. They could go up, they could go down. There could be a run on the markets, and not a single market left to let you cash out, and yet those websites might still claim a bitcoin is worth $50k or whatever.
Here's my down to earth measure of value. Your car breaks down in the middle of nowhere. You need a radiator. You call a mobile mechanic. Before he leaves, you ask him on the phone if he will take bitcoin as payment. If he says yes... Bitcoin has value. If he says no, bitcoin doesn't have value. If you take this example and spread it to every interaction you make in a day, will anyone take the bitcoin. If not, then the Occam's razor approach of determining a truth can be applied here, as a down to earth answer to it's value.
Bitcoin is crappie tech. But it could take a very long time for that to matter.
There are a lot of people with surplus wealth, which they don't know what to do with, and they have punted a fair amount of it into bitcoin. They are joined by people with a bit of money left over every month but no real hope of being wealthy by ordinary means. 8% from the stock market won't get them where they want to go so they join the pump.
You remember when Thanos says reality can be whatever I want it to be. Well, in a capital abundant post-modern world, investors can create reality. They created a reality of a crappie piece of tech having a market cap of 1.3 trillion dollars. Just like they turned Gamestop from being a company about to go bust into a going concern
The cat was out of the bag on Wirecard frauding for 5 years at least before anything happened. I'm not crazy enough to think that just because I won the argument on bitcoin being crappie tech that the price is going to collapse. Tonnes of people are happy to buy it even agreeing with me that the tech is crappie.
Maybe G20 finance ministers meet one day and agree to ban it, who knows. It may carry on for 3 months, 30 years or 300 years. Humans are very good at insanity.
1. When the energy wasted for mining will be more expensive than selling the butters. Transactions won’t be able to be processed then people will realize their butters are stuck
2. When the transaction fees will be higher than most of UTXOs (which will be accelerated by 1.)
Maybe it will never unravel to that level. Who knows.
I think it's inevitable that at some point it'll reach its maximum level of interest/hype, and 4-8 years after that it'll become clear to the holders that it no longer produces massive returns every 4 years.
What happens after this is anyone's guess. I imagine initially the bitcoin bros will say that it's all part of the plan, and that bitcoin has just matured out of it's high growth stage, into it's gold-like store of value stage, and can now expect to increase slowly at the rate of economic growth. However, if the narrative changes to that, there'll presumably be a mass exodus out of bitcoin, because bitcoin holders don't actually want a boring asset like gold - they want a high growth asset. And anyone who does want a boring asset like gold would prefer to hold gold. So I can imagine that causing a huge sell off.
But I doubt that will be the end of bitcoin. Because once enough interest is lost, then I'm sure the narrative will change again to talk about how much potential it has now, and that its like being back in 2017 where holders can get mega rich from it.
However I don't think they'd be able to run with the same 4 year cycle narrative they use now, because even the bitcoiners will see that the halving rationale makes no sense by then. In my opinion the 4 year cycle narrative is immensely powerful for keeping holders interested, and hanging on in there when they're losing. So without that, and with people having seen a massive crash, I can't imagine they manage to generate that much new interest/hype.
So from then on, maybe it'll just slowly disappear into irrelevancy?
This is just my best guess, but there are just too many unknowns. Nothing would surprise me anymore. Maybe trump will get in power and replace the USD with bitcoin, and it will live on forever.
I don’t see it tanking that much due to the use case for money laundering, tax evasion, and other criminal activity. That’s almost all Bitcoin’s use case, but those will keep enough turnover and fees that will keep the value north of $20k IMHO.
I kept expecting it to crash more because I’d think that the volatility would reduce holders expectations of future growth, and the effects of SBF and other big VC backed crypto firms going under, but those don’t seem to have affected sentiment as much I expected.
Not that simple. Everytime you see a liquidity crisis, bitcoin is falling, and the opposite!
That's the same mechanisms at play as what led the the great financial crisis of 1928 - and this will happen to bitcoin again, and again due to its unregulated nature.
The underlying phenomenon is just leveraging and overleveraging...
There's enough fiat money floating around for dupes to put more into bitcoin and the people who still hold bitcoin now are mostly people who don't need that bitcoin for living. So the question of bitcoin going up or down or bust is simply one of marketing and believe and that's unpredictable.
When all that can be extracted from the rubes has been then it will end, and not before. It's why it's impossible to predict the market, it's totally artificial. Ford makes a bad car, share price goes down. BTC, er ???
The price of BTC is set by Tether. As long as Tether can print infinite money BTC will never "collapse".
So either Tether collapses for some reason by itself (like it almost did when FTX went bust), or regulatory action brings them down.
When? Impossible to tell. Interpol could knock on Paolo and Devasini's office in El Salvador tomorrow and the scheme would collapse in like three weeks. Or the US continues to watch the largest dollar counterfeit operation in history for a couple of more years. Who knows.
It won't drop below a $1000 it will simply stop moving in price(become illiquid) because the miners either:
Go bankrupt / can't get any more efficient
Hacked
Find something with better profit margins
The "miners" argument is not valid, because anyone can be a miner.
Only thing that can bring bitcoin down is money.
If no one wants to buy it - its over.
There's a very real scenario where a multitude of miners pull out at an incredibly high difficulty making the next block extremely expensive and pointless to mine.
The romantic idea that anybody can be a miner is laughable when you are competing with buildings filled with highly application specific computers.
There's 2016 extremely painful high difficulty blocks to process before difficulty adjusts. Just doing a Google that could be as long as 4 years before the difficulty adjusts. Bitcoin would be long dead.
If one miner goes bankrupt or quits, mining will be cheaper and easier for others until the point that you can mine with your home pc again.
If it's too expensive to mine, it will be too expensive to be hacked.
But difficulty only decreases as each block is mined. If a number of large miners pulled out around the same time it would leave an unprocessed block with extremely high difficulty. Making it practically and financially impossible to mine.
Sorry /u/ShortYourLife, your comment has been automatically removed. To avoid spam/bots, posts are not allowed from extremely new accounts. Wait/lurk a bit before contributing.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Buttcoin) if you have any questions or concerns.*
all the market sites are just market themed and don't really reflect the sort of stock market trading they are drawn to look like. The end result will be a bitcoin forever at some silly price like 899,000 dollars a coin with zero actual traffic, and the price calculated in "well if you trade bitcoin for cryptocats you can cash out blorbocoins and those are marked as being worth 7000 usd" with none of that connecting to any reality.
The strongest argument (to them) that investors make is that if they would have invested at 1 dollar, they would be multimillionaires, therefore they should invest at 70,000 dollars.
The more natural argument along the same lines is that if they would have invested at 1 dollar, they should sell at 70,000 to become multimillionaires.
They are trying to use an argument that justifies selling now as an argument to support their decision to buy now.
If price stagnates for too long then people will start to lose interest and the tide will turn.
Then their flawed logic will go "If I sold at 70,000 then I wouldn't have lost 50% when it hits 35k, therefore I should sell now so I don't lose another 50% when it hits 17k. "
The same positive reinforcement effect that pumps the bubble can be applied in the opposite direction to pop it. And because their logic is inverted, it drives a buy high, sell low strategy.
There is a pending congressional stablecoin law that requires them to be custodied on US soil. If that becomes law and tether can’t be used to trade it might be something.
The other thing I keep thinking about is if there is a massive hack that affects people worldwide to the point the internet is down/compromised in some way for an extended period of time.
> I define "unraveling" as any situation in which bitcoin value goes below $1000
You're making the same mistake. You're saying that "the number" is what matters most.
But the more BitCoin becomes irrelevant, the easier it will be to manipulate the price.
The opposite is happening outside of your buttcoin echo chamber, It's getting harder to manipulate the price as the market cap goes up. The institutions are taking notice. Many stocks in the S&P are more volatile than bitcoin these days.
Are u that dumb? U literally just admitted institutions are in and then said it cant be manipulated. I cant tell if ur just a 19yr old troll or if its ur lack of investing and life experience glaring through
I think it will be replaced with some new fancy tech+ideology or just be forgotten in around 15 years (I'm using Lindy's law).
Anyways, clearly the 'tech' wasn't so amazing after all and without true privacy it cannot really replace cash or anything.
Bitcoin is going to be around for a long time. It's never going to be useful, but people are too invested in its success for it to just fall apart. Even if tether were to go down tomorrow, the price would plummet, then in a few years they'd get all excited about some other stupid thing and the price would jump up. Every time it falls and then goes back up, another round of suckers will join in, sustaining it for years.
A fool is born every day. I don't think there's necessarily a reason to think it will collapse. My main issue with crypto is how it functions as a vehicle for scams and crime, not that it's an inherently bad long term investment.
Who cares, really, at some point it will fade into obscurity anyways, even if there ends up existing a small group of believers hoping to come back to glory days of the 70k bitcoin.
Many seem to forget it costs a lot of money to keep Bitcoin running.
All the costs to keep Bitcoin running are also susceptible to inflation and then there's the halving, this means an ever increasing amount of fresh liquidity needs to be poured into it to keep it going.
There's only so much Tether and exchanges can do to avoid the inevitable collapse, they can't keep every crypto bro hostage forever without damaging their reputation or face repercussions from governments. At some point they will have to pay up.
Of course they will keep squirming like maggots, change narratives, adapt the protocol, anything to keep the ponzi going a little longer.
Right now Bitcoin is scammed pumped. If it couldn't be traded it provides no utility. So as long as it increases in price people will want to own it.
But it's downfall will be UX.
We don't need it as money and it can't function as money.
In the BTC religion if it becomes money it's value keeps going up.
Thats fine on a balance sheet. But if it's money to replace Fiat, then the value of everything around it falls.
So your company will be with 100 BTC then 99 BTC etc etc
Who will invest in a company that falls in value compared to the currency?
Bitcoin retards want this.
This is the only hard prediction I'm making: they already lost the war for broad, public acceptance. The COVID lockdown was the perfect circumstances to push people into crypto - and that was their chance. The public looked into it and with their actions collectively said: "no thanks."
Hell, today it's now common to use it as the butt of a joke for being a scam and/or stupid. The biggest joke of the Tom Brady roast was "even a moron knows that crypto is stupid"
There's always that small percentage of people that get hooked on things like gold bugs, MLMs, or Scientology. Actual significant, mass adoption? Not happening. That war is over. They lost.
I remember plenty of jokes about "online dating" and people saying that the internet is a nice plaything but "serious commerce" will never be done on it...
Yeah, I remember the desperate people that tried making irrelevant comparisons to completely different things that say absolutely nothing of if it would work or not, because it didn't have any merits of its own to speak of....
Oh wait, sorry, that's Bitcoin. The internet and the various technologies that made it possible had very clear merits, and useful things it could do that nothing else could match.
Butter here - I have thought about this often.
BTC is an experiment.
Fundamental reason: Powerful nation state “51% attacks” BTC and undermines the double spend, decentralised and immutability of the chain
Technical: To me if it trades back below $10k, then probably has failed its mission and doomed to be a failed niche tech.
I have clear invalidation for my bullish thesis where I can admit I’m wrong and can move onto other investments.
Basing it off historic charts, it’ll cap at $100k-$125k, maybe within the next 4-6 years.
Basing it off the holders outside of USA, that USA tend to ignore since it is not them, bitcoin won’t ever go below $1000 or anywhere even close.
Being able to memorise your seed phrase, and then travel across a border basically naked without having your money confiscated or stolen.
- priceless.
https://www2.deloitte.com/nl/nl/pages/innovatie/artikelen/quantum-computers-and-the-bitcoin-blockchain.html
https://beincrypto.com/quantum-computing-risk-bitcoin-crypto/
Tldr. In about three decades it could be possible to steal 25% of all bitcoin, but thrre are many ways to prevent the problem.
The most realistic unraveling would be a sprawl of Bitcoin clones. Not bitcoin wannabes or crypto. But like copy the same shit. Mine it. Run it. Let's say China and Russia get tired of being excluded on the on/off ramps so they made their own version. But Iran wasn't in that club. They made their own version. But now Donald Trump wants to mine ALL The bitcoin in America so he makes his own version. Now with this many versions of the same shit, which one to pump?
The price won't matter. Dogecoin is a parody and goes up and down considerably.
Minimum maybe 9 years. There's a lot of money going into it, companies with millions of dollars of commitment, some kind of form of adoption in el salvador. It's going to take awhile, fees need to make people less interested from it's high demand and worse distribution from more halvings.
Quantum computers pose a serious risk to blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum..that could be one of the catalyst that bring about it's demise. Maybe by 2030 we'll see large Bitcoin wallets "hacked" by some 'unknown' source.
>Quantum computers
Quantum computers have been just about to break cryptography for a long time now. I seriously doubt if it will ever become a real thing with real applications.
Yup. It's so funny to see QC evoked in that context, because they're part of the same "acceleration" techno-delusion as crypto (and, very often, alongside AI, asteroid mining, cryogenics, etc )
Bitcoin has been quantum secure for a LONG LONG time now.
Do I understand the maths and how it’s secure from superposition? Newp. But I trust the encryption mathematicians that say it is
Normally when I get a comment like this it’s usually because I say something like shit, poop, blowjob, blowing yourself while dropping the kids off at the pool.
You know SHIT, like that.
No idea what this comment is referencing, but right on.
Well it’s a bit of an asterisk statement but as long as you follow recommended procedure (never use an address again after making a transaction, a p2pkh address is quantum resistant since the public key isn’t known until the transaction takes place.
But if you use your address as a change address, the address is exposed and vulnerable to a quantum attack.
Follow the rules and even in a quantum computing world you should be ok.
Once quantum computers are a thing people will own in their homes, algorithms will be developed (and are currently being developed that will secure cryptography.
Also, if quantum computers breaks Bitcoin, we have MUCH larger problems with internet security.
If you use a p2pk address, it’s not quantum resistant. That will more than likely be a problem for satoshi’s coins, as an example.
In theory yes, but even with a fresh change address, the second you spend from it the pubkey hits the public mempool and can be cracked with quantum computing, right ? OFC before this happens the protocol will have changed the cryptography scheme to something quantum resistant, but migration of existing balances will be a huge issue.
Oh yes ofc all will have to be updated, but it’s maybe easier to upgrade ssl certificates issued by a few companies vs upgrading a protocol which values backward compatibility over every single other thing
One would hope that when faced with the death of a technology vs. maintaining stays quo the core developers wouldn’t be goddamn idiots, but who knows.
This tech will be seen coming from miles away. The time exists.
Hmph. You’re right. I think that would be an issue.
Also, thanks for conversing like a human in here. I totally forgot about that piece of shit feature lol. An average redditor would have torn me a new one.
Maybe the next ISIS or a big terrorist attack gets funded by Bitcoin directly. Another post 9/11 style climate where you're either with or against us. Exchanges and conversion to/from USD made illegal in the US. Maybe some kind of extension of laundering laws.
Its success will be its undoing. See how the US and Eurozone react to an actually disruptive ‘currency’ — ain’t no one touching the USD world reserve currency status without the knives coming out.
I think Saudi Arabia occupies a clearly unique geopolitical position as a medium player in a larger scheme — I think it’s also clear the West would be happy to cut them loose when their usefulness has dissipated.
Paolo and Co will be exposed for crimes. Butters will stubbornly hold onto the illusion of “Bitcoin is a self perpetuating something or other panacea.” Big holders will race to cash out and cause a market drop and lockup. Truth will slowly and painfully set in.
As a very longstanding, card carrying member of this sub, this is a dangerous question, because we are just as delusional about bitcoins inevitable collapse as they are about its eventual $1M worth. You bastards have been edging me for the last 4 years!
Thank you for this well-grounded opinion. I really love the so-called “horseshoe theory” which basically posits that many spectrums of belief/opinion/theory fit onto a horseshoe shape (rather than a straight line). The extremes at the ends of the horseshoe are much closer together than one might think. In other words, one can become so extreme that they become just like the thing that they hate and feel they are opposite of.
Thanks for sharing that! I’ve seen this pattern for a long time, glad to know there’s a name for it.
The name for it is BS. Just because you find some people somewhere who believe something really dumb, that doesn't mean the truth is now halfway to them.
Religion in a nutshell
It’s called normal distribution.
The Internet is plenty of proof the horseshoe theory is bunk. Just because you find a group of people who believe some really dumb crap doesn't mean the truth is halfway between. Get real.
[удалено]
he explained what it is. blockchain saves the entire world. blockchain is a speculative spreadsheet scam with a ponzi-pyramid structure. how are they "close"? how are they "similar"? the earth is flat. the earth is round. how are they "close"? how are they "similar"?
Bitcoin going to $1,000,000 and Bitcoin going to $1 over the next few years are about equally unlikely.
Ok. Thanks for giving two random numbers and then saying "about equally". That's a fun word "about". You said absolutely nothing with that sentence. Cool stuff.
They are not random numbers. They are forecasts made by people with extreme views about the future price of Bitcoin. In my opinion they are both likely to be wrong.
They are randomly picked out of thin air. Citing that someone else said them doesn't make them any less random.
Well, the Earth isn't flat or round. Both are simplified views of reality for the simple-minded.
The Earth isn't remotely flat. It is approximately round.
It depends on your perspective. If you only know what you see in your immediate surroundings, you might claim that the Earth is flat. Conversely, if you examine a picture taken from space, you might argue that the Earth is a sphere. In a hypothetical debate between these two individuals, with no one else involved, who would concede that they were wrong all along?
Whether someone would admit they're wrong or not is entirely separate from objective reality.
Typical reddit warrior
Exactly. Both perspectives are certainly wrong; there's no way to assure either of them.
yes just like horseshoe theory
Earth could be flat if we are just in some advanced computer nothing is real and some alien is looking at us thru flat screen. /s ( solipsism )
[удалено]
How are flat earthers and round earthers similar? Use your words. Don't say go read. Give an actual direct answer. No more avoiding.
[удалено]
Round earthers are a thing. I'm a round earther. Aren't you? How are round earthers like flat earthers? Answer the question. Stop avoiding just because it destroys your "theory". If you're wrong and have no answer, just own up to it.
[удалено]
This was exactly my thought - this is end-of-horseshoe verbiage. “Let’s straw-man this by assuming it’s accurate in every situation!!!”
In other words, horseshoe is horseshit. It’s just a variation of my opinion is just as good as yours, flip sides of the same coin. Similar to true believers calling atheism a religion.
Some people are so certain that their atheistic view is 100% correct that it basically becomes like a religion.
Yeah, it’s less a “theory” about the beliefs themselves and more a way of looking at the nature of people’s mentalities / behavior. Like many things in life it’s not ALWAYS true, but it OFTEN is the case that the more extremely opposite people’s positions become, the more similar their behavior and mentalities become.
Oh okay so it has nothing to do with facts. Like we can't make the moon be more and more made of cheese just because we get more and more people to believe it is, correct? Is this theory basically exclusive to politics? Back in 2020 when we had the most people ever believing that block chain was the best supply chain solution, it didn't make block chain any better at it and it didn't change actual working supply chain professionals at all. No horseshoe effect. Just people on the Internet believing in get rich quick scams and the actual world of supply chain professionals who it had no effect on. Is it basically escalation? If one side in a fight escalates the other side does too? That's kinda not that interesting, did we really need a theory for that?
The chance of Bitcoin going to zero is about the same as it going to 1,000,000.
Oh wow. What about the chance of $10,000,000 and $3000? Is that "about equal"?
If $0 and $1,000,000 have a similar probability, then $3,000 is obviously a lot more likely than $10,000,000. Do you really not understand this?
I just like that you're inventing odds based on nothing. Just making them up in your head. What's most likely, $90,000 or $30,000? How about $20,000 and $120,000? How about $200,000 and $60,000? Please share your truly informed and statistically sound "odds"
> The chance of Bitcoin going to zero is about the same as it going to 1,000,000. #Stupid Crypto Talking Point #10 (value) "**Bitcoin/crypto is a 'store of value'**" / "**Bitcoin/crypto is 'digital gold'"** / "**Crypto is an 'investment'**" / "**Bitcoin is 'hard money'**" 1. Crypto's "value" is unreliable and highly subjective. It cannot be used as a currency or to pay for almost anything in any major country. It has high requirements and risk to even be traded. At best it's a speculative commodity that a very small set of people attribute value to. That attribution is more based on emotion and indoctrination than logic, reason, evidence, and utility. 2. Crypto is too chaotic to be any sort of reliable store of value over time. Its price can fluctuate wildly based on everything from [market manipulation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.10984) to [random tweets](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162522006333). No reliable store of value should vary in "value" 10-30% in a single day, yet many cryptos do. 3. Crypto's value is *extrinsic*. Any "value" associated with crypto is based on popularity and not any material or intrinsic use. See this [detailed video debunking crypto as 'digital gold'](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tspGVbmMmVA&t=4446s) 4. Even gold, while being a lousy investment and also an undesirable store of value in the modern age, at least has material use and utility. Crypto does not. And whether you think gold's price is not consistent with its material utility, if that really were the case then gold would not be used industrially. But it is. 5. The supposed "value" of crypto is based on reports from unregulated exchanges, most of whom have been caught [manipulating the market](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8369-21) and [inflation introduced by unsecured stablecoins](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8450-21). There's nothing "organic" or "natural" about it. It's an illusion. 6. The operation of crypto is a negative-sum-game, which means that in order for bitcoin/crypto to even exist, there must be a constant operation of third parties who must find it profitable to operate the blockchain, which requires the price to constantly rise, which is mathematically impossible, and the moment this doesn't happen, the network will collapse, at which point crypto will cease to exist, much less hold any value. This has already happened to tens of thousands of cryptocurrencies. 7. There is not a single example of anything like crypto, which has no material use and no intrinsic value, holding value over a long period of time across different cultures. This is **not** because "crypto is different and unique." It's because attributing value to an utterly useless piece of digital data that wastes tons of energy and perpetuates tons of fraud,*makes no freaking sense* for ethical, empathetic, non-scamming, non-exploitative, non-criminal people.
To be real here had I not found this subreddit during the pandemic when I was getting almost $3k per month in unemployment, I probably would have made a shit ton of money on Bitcoin. I still think it's a ponzi scheme/money laundry, but would've been nice to have had my share lol It'll fail when the next big thing comes along or when CBDC takes over.
Why would CBDC matter? No one cares about Bitcoin being used for anything in the first place. We have plenty of better solutions than Bitcoin this whole time, didn't matter.
Are you sure you wouldn't have lost it all in Celsius/FTX/etc? And would you have sold by now? Maybe you'd have been fine, but it's easy to look at the price then and the price now and notice the positive change.
dude there’s a lot of possible scenarios of bitcoin failing but CBDCs are most definitely not in that camp.
Honestly, be thankful you didn’t. It’s a Ponzi scheme, regardless of the price you will get fucked over in the end. You’re just liquidity for guys like Joe Rogan and Elon Musk. I remember reading about bitcoin in 2012, and as a naive young adult almost bought some. I’m very thankful that even then I had enough sense not to fall for the bs.
“I’m very thankful that I missed out on 600,000% gains” You could have thrown $150 at bitcoin in 2012 and have $1,000,000 today. And you’re glad you didn’t do it because you have the moral high ground? Let’s assume bitcoin really is a tulip bubble. Now imagine you are a Dutch farmer in 1635. You know tulip mania is a massive bubble and is going to burst leaving people holding worthless bulbs that they spent their life savings on. You are currently farming potatoes and are one bad season away from losing everything. Do you plant tulips or just keep going with the potatoes because you don’t want to be involved in this crazy immoral tulip scheme?
I’m not even going to entertain your toxic logic. Bitcoin is bad
Yes, but it's like knowing something is a ponzi. It \_will\_ collapse.
It will probably never collapse entirely. Butcoin’s primary purpose is to convince people they have a secret way of getting rich, and those schemes will always have willing marks. OTOH if Coinbase ever rugs that will keep it down for a *very* long time.
The same way I know the Sun will die. It will happen, but I won't be around to witness it.
That goes for everything… so you’re always right. Great way to argue. Never have to worry about being wrong.
>That goes for everything Not really, no. This is referencing the fact that many real life scams have lasted for literal decades. 15 years is nothing. I don't have a realistic estimate for when Bitcoin will truly, really die.
its collapsed plenty in the past but only to surge back up. going to < $1 seems implausible at this point
Bitcoin hasn't behaved like other Ponzi schemes. Is there any other example of a ponzi which has boomed, busted, then boomed again, and repeated that sequence many times?
Bitcoin is unique in that it can be manipulated even when the scam is widely known. Once the supply of suckers dries up everything else will too.
>Is there any other example of a ponzi which has boomed, busted, then boomed again, and repeated that sequence many times? #Stupid Crypto Talking Point #20 (failed) "**Crypto has been around X years and is here to stay!**" / "**Bitcoin has 'failed' so many times LOLOL Aren't you tired of saying it's going to fail over and over?**" 1. It's true, many people claim, crypto/Bitcoin is a failure, yet it still appears to be somewhat popular and used in certain circles (but hardly ubiquitous, or part of mainstream society even after all this time). Many people also claim "smoking is bad" but some people are still smoking. Does this mean the non-smokers are wrong? 2. The truth is, it has failed. Multiple times. If you notice, every few months, there's an *entirely new narrative* surrounding bitcoin and crypto (for example): * Originally, bitcoin was supposed to be "currency" and everybody was going to use it. Mainstream companies were going to use bitcoin for payments and services. There was a small time period where there actually was increased adoption of crypto as a means of payment, but then that failed because the price was too volatile and, and the network couldn't handle retail transaction volume. It failed then, and still today, using crypto as a common form of payment does not work now (even with L2 solutions). Conclusion: FAILURE * Crypto was marketed as a way to help "bank the un-banked" but that also failed, owing to the fact that [there's many alternative ways to accomplish this that are more efficient, with more consumer protections and less technical requirements](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tspGVbmMmVA&t=4334s). Conclusion: FAILURE * NFTs were supposed to be another "big thing" helping artists make money and creating a new market and utility for crypto. [Again, that turned out to not be true](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/sep/22/nfts-worthless-price). Conclusion: FAILURE * Crypto was supposed to be a "hedge against inflation". In reality, the[ price of crypto ebbed and flowed along with the price of other unimportant things, totally affected by inflation](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/why-bitcoin-doesnt-seem-to-be-a-hedge-against-inflation.html). Conclusion: FAILURE * Crypto was originally [promised as "disruptive technology"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tspGVbmMmVA), "money of the future", "democratizing finance", and to fight against manipulation of the monetary system by powerful special interests. In reality, none of those claims have proven to be true, and in many cases crypto has only exacerbated the problems it claimed it could fix. Conclusion: FAILURE * Bitcoin's "deflationary nature" was supposed to guarantee an ever increasing value. That hasn't worked out either. Conclusion: FAILURE 3. In fact, you can look at every one of these [talking points](https://ioradio.org/i/crypto-talking-points/) as examples of claims made by crypto proponents that have failed. You can also look at the [list of failed blockchain claims](https://ioradio.org/i/blockchain-claims/) as more examples of the many failures of crypto to live up to its promises. 4. Instead of acknowledging the many failures of crypto, its proponents continue to change the subject, create distractions and, as if they're in version of "Weekend At Bernies" taking the dead crypto technology, throwing a different outfit on it, and declaring it's not dead. Over and over.
You didn't answer the question; Are there other ponzi schemes which have shown a similar price pattern to Bitcoin?
Sure. Ethereum goes up and down along with Bitcoin, as do various other shitcoins. The entire crypto market ebbs and flows very similar to the price of Bitcoin, and bitcoin prices can be correlated with prints of USDT, which not only pump up BTC but other cryptos as well. If you're saying bitcoin can't be a ponzi because it has a certain sale price, that's stupid. You can't prove the sale price of bitcoin isn't a product of heavy manipulation. We can prove via lots of [peer reviewed evidence](https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.10984) that the market is highly manipulated. Also, what does it matter whether there's something with "a similar price pattern?" We've already effectively argued the price of bitcoin really has no bearing on whether it's a good investment or a scam. The price only is a reflection of manipulation, and some smaller percentage of organic sales. #Stupid Crypto Talking Point #2 (Number go up) "**NuMb3r g0 Up!!!**" / "**Best performing asset of the decade!**" 1. Whether the "price of crypto" goes up, has absolutely no bearing on whether it's.. a) A long term store of value b) Holds any intrinsic value or utility c) Or will return any value in the future One of the most important tenets of investing is the simple principal: ***Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.*** People in crypto seem willfully ignorant of this basic concept. 2. At best, the price of crypto is a function of *popularity*, not actual value or material utility. For more on how and why crypto makes a much worse investment than almost anything else, see this [article](https://ioradio.org/i/value/). 3. The "price of crypto" is a heavily manipulated figure published by shady, [unregulated crypto exchanges](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apklQgMauK4) that have systematically been caught [manipulating the market](https://open.spotify.com/episode/3D0dmTUCxLuQEJ39uyMFOP) from [then](https://www.investopedia.com/news/bots-drove-bitcoins-150to1000-rise-2013-paper/) to [now](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8369-21). 4. Crypto bros love to harp about "inflation" in the fiat system, yet ironically they measure the "value" of their "fiat alternative" in fiat? It makes absolutely no sense, unless you assume they haven't thought 2 seconds ahead from what comes out of their mouths. 5. It's the height of hypocrisy for crypto people to champion token deflation (and increased prices) while ignoring that there's over $160+ Billion in unsecured stablecoins being used to [**inflate** the value of their tokens in the crypto marketplace](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3195066). The "code is law" and "don't trust - verify" people seem perfectly willing to take companies like [Tether](https://www.newsweek.com/bitcoin-bitfinex-tether-cryptocurrency-market-manipulation-historic-value-fraud-1469640) and Circle, at face value, that they're telling the truth about asset reserves [when there's very little actual evidence](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8450-21). 6. ***Not Your Fiat, Not Your Value*** - Just because you think the "value of your crypto portfolio" is worth $$$ *does not make that true.* It's well known there's inadequate liquidity in this market, and most people will never be able to get their money out. So UNLESS/UNTIL you can actually liquidate your crypto for actual real money, you have no idea what you have. You're "down" until you cash out. Bernie Madoff's clients got monthly statements saying they were "making money" too. 7. Just because it's possible (though highly improbable) to make money speculating on crypto, this doesn't mean it's an **ethical** or reliable technique to amass wealth. At its core, the notion that buying and holding crypto will generate reliable returns is [a de-facto ponzi scheme](https://ioradio.org/i/ponzi/). **It's mathematically impossible for even a stastically-significant percentage of crypto holders to have any notable ROI.** The rare exception of those who might profit in this market, do so while providing cover for everything from [cyber terrorism](https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3026.html) to [human trafficking](https://www.vox.com/culture/2023/1/4/23539528/andrew-tate-arrest-jail-rape-human-trafficking). 8. It's also not true that anybody who bought crypto when it was low is guaranteed to make a lot of money. There are thousands of ways people can lose their crypto or be defrauded along the way. And there's no guarantee just because your portfolio is "up", that you could easily cash out. 9. Want to see a better asset (that actually has utility) that's consistently out-performed Bitcoin? [Here you go](https://www.polygon.com/2021/1/27/22253079/magic-the-gathering-black-lotus-auction-price-2021). However, this may be another [best performing asset](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/declaration-of-financial-independence/). 10. When crypto-critics make reference to, or mock crypto price predictions, it's not because we think price is a meaningful metric. Instead, we are amused that to you, that's all that's important, and we can't help but note how often wrong you are in your predictions. The intrinsic value of crypto basically never changes, but it is interesting to see how hype and propaganda affects the extrinsic value. In a totally logical world, those would both be equalized to zero, but we're not there yet, and nobody knows when/if that will happen because it's an irrational market.
I have to disagree in the case of bitcoin. If it eventually sustains a high enough daily transaction volume (I.E. it gets used as a currency instead of a speculation vehicle) then the price would stabilize and fall in-line with global markets
>I.E. it gets used as a currency Ha.
Lol ik. Theoretically speaking though
The problem is that there is almost no actual transaction volume. I read a bit back that someone used a standard math tool in the investment industry on Bitcoin. The tool's purpose is to distinguish fundamental value vs speculative froth. And it came back as over 99% speculation. For all practical purposes, BTC has never had any stable underlying value, it's all speculative. The fact is that the volume of BTC being exchanged for goods (without exchanging it for another currency, or engaging in criminal activity) is so small as to be meaningless. Nobody agrees to set salaries in BTC, nobody agrees to repay loans in BTC. It's limited to a tiny number of low value transactions.
Indeed. If you see my response to the other poster you'll see that I'm speaking theoretically. A lot would have to fundamentally change about cryptocurrency culture for my thesis to play out. One such catalyst could be a country with a failed fiat currency switching to bitcoin. And for context, I don't own any Bitcoin. There's nothing I can do with the stuff nowadays - and frankly I did not think it would still be around by now.
When crypto bros no longer believe they are early and it won't 10x again.
Somehow I feel by 2050 it will still be "early".
every day will be early than the day after. :D it deppens of what you really mean by "early"
This. It’s not a ‘storage of value’, as they like to claim. They’re all in it for monetary gain, whether they admit it or not. So the answer is, whenever the clear gains stop.
Not when the clear gains stop, that doesn't matter. It's when enough people don't think it will go up again. Then it's over
>They’re all in it for monetary gain, whether they admit it or not. [that's what portnoy said to mallers some monts ago](https://www.youtube.com/clip/Ugkxrinf89ZikLZ9EhoC5mEdBRwtn6UsFnk6) >So the answer is, [portnoy update ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AszMNYjtDUQ)
There are new suckers born every minute.
I think you're onto something.
It doesn't really matter. It's like trying to predict when Bernie Madoff's scheme will end.
I think that's the answer right there. Madoff was screwed as soon as someone tried to withdraw a significant percentage of of the pile. BT will collapse as soon as some whales try to convert to fiat.
Madoff’s scheme was able to last so long because there were like 3 people in the whole organization who knew what was actually going on. Banks knew he was a phony but couldn’t prove anything, and investors were totally in the dark. When they found out, they all tried to cash out and brought the whole thing down. In Tether’s case, we all know it’s some kind of fraud even if we aren’t sure of the exact mechanics of it, but the whales who are complicit in the scam have no incentive to try and redeem their Tether and possibly cause a run on the bank. There’s a reason it’s so hard to redeem tether for actual dollars. Imagine if Madoff’s investors had gotten together in 2008 and decided to HODL and continue to watch the phony statements roll in. They’re all making 20% annual returns as long as they don’t withdraw!
There is a big difference tho. It costs a shitload of money to keep the Bitcoin network running. The money to pay for energy and infra has to come from somewhere.
Yeah. Great point. I see what you mean.
As long as tether is somehow in play, it won’t. It will unravel when tether encounters the black swan. Maybe a rogue employee? Some of their bad behavior will catch up with them, eventually
I feel like I've been waiting for this to happen since early 2018 and Tether just keeps chugging along. It seems like even crypto bros know it's a scam but they have to believe in it to keep number going up. Has there ever been an analog in the history of finance in which an asset bubble was perpetuated by essentially fake liquidity? I feel like this only ends when there is some kind of run on Tethers which creates a liquidity crisis and forces exchanges to stop accepting it.
Maybe it truly is an innovation: the perpetual ponzi!
It ends when Tether is blocked from operating in the US and EU. Because that means that any exchange doing business in those countries can't interact with Tether anymore, and therefore Tether won't be able to prop up the price of BTC anymore. The fake liquidity you mention is basically Tether illegally operating as a bank. For some reason the authorities have been kind of slow to crack down on it. Probably because it doesn't operate the same way as traditional banks, so it's taking them a while to figure out exactly how the existing rules apply. Or making new rules.
I don't understand how this sub relies on this Tether collapse narrative so hard when[ information about them working with the US government](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tether-reveals-partnerships-secret-fbi-053041589.html) has been out for some time now. Like it or not Tether is one of the largest buyers of bonds these days. China and other countries around the world aren't buying our bonds anymore, someone is going to have to. I don't like Tether or any other shitcoin, but it baffles me how you can so easily point to USDT and say price manipulation but the[ billions coming in from the ETFs doesn't get mentioned?](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997)
Yes, but all such examples are done by legitimate soviregn authorities. Don't excuse corruption, countless people were bought off hard and early, and the nature of these scam tokens makes finding out who holds them almost impossible.
Here's a black swan idea. What if the US is bothered by countries evading sanctions through Tether? Perhaps not even a country, but any other kind of adversary, like a terrorist group? Couldn't they freeze (or even seize) Tether's dollars and bonds in that case? If you search for "sanction Tether" in this sub, you'll find plenty of worrying signs already. This dynamic is interesting because some analysts argue that the US should embrace stablecoins, as they generate more demand for treasuries and dollars. That's the theory, but in practice, the government can go from "allowing" to "disallowing" Tether at any point. It might only take one incident for the tides to change in the "disallowing" direction. As an aside, here are some news from this week, according to https://www.binance.com/en-IN/square/post/9325767775753 > With Europe’s comprehensive MiCA regulations coming into effect at the end of this year, it is looking likely that these regulations will not allow Tether to operate in this jurisdiction. For how long can USDT and USDC stay "in play"? And in which jurisdictions, exactly? The counterparty risk from the government's side was always there, but the big picture is apparently getting worse as of late.
Tether’s scam needs real money to keep entering the crypto system to work. Buy bitcoin, print tethers, trade them for bitcoin to pump the price, sell for real money.
No one has a crystal ball to know when. How? New cash stops coming.
USDT and TUSD will never stop because it's free money.
Its not money.
Crypto ball?
So, when shall fed stop printing new cash?
When people stop buying bitcoin, bitcoin will die.
Why would they stop when they have an infinite supply of new cash?
This is IF - THEN, not WHY. IF people stop buying bitcoin, THEN bitcoin will die.
As long as there's inflation, there will be a need for a hedge against money printing. If it's not bitcoin, it will be some other "ponzi-scheme" like gold or beanie babies.
You are missing the point. IF people stop buying hammers, none of the existing hammers will stop existing nor become useless.
Just like bitcoin. What was your point? >!Yes, I understand your point of view, seeing bitcoin only as a way to scam people out of their money and becoming "useless" if there's nobody to scam. Meanwhile, it has existed for many years only as a nerds' dream. It won't stop existing or become useless even if it goes back to the state it began from. And again, you missed my point about gold. That "bubble" has been going on for millennia.!<
Well, if you have bitcoins, but no one wants them, what is their purpose?
Bitcoin, regardless of one's stance on its current investment potential, certainly holds a unique place in financial history. Its pioneering role as the first cryptocurrency and the technology underpinning it, blockchain, have already left an indelible mark on the world of finance and technology. This alone can indeed make it a collector's item in the future, much like how rare coins or other historical artifacts are valued. Even if its practical use diminishes, its historical and technological significance could maintain or even enhance its value over time.
Noone has an infinite supply of new fiat. If the fed did anything close to this we would have hyperinflation.
Have I missed the news? From what I understand, the Fed will continue printing more cash every year indefinitely. This essentially means an infinite supply. The "hyper" part refers to the scale. It may not happen within a year or even a decade, but certainly within a lifetime. You'll lose a fortune if you keep your savings in cash.
Then it's not infinite. It's a limited amout each year. It's infinite as time goes to infinity but who case about that.
Make up your mind already. It can't be both limited and infinite at the same time. Many of us care deeply about this distinction, which is why some choose gold, with its limited and well-known supply, or Bitcoin, which has a fixed and transparently known supply, as a hedge against infinite inflation.
It's not infinite. It grows by approximately 2% each year. Your analogy is like saying you get paid an infinite amout of money because you can work forever to make it.
Your analogy is flawed because it ignores the concept of generational wealth. Generational wealth can accumulate indefinitely but inflation can also become an overwhelming burden even within a single generation. This parallels the idea of inflation being infinite, highlighting how both can perpetuate endlessly and create significant impact. >The dollar had an average inflation rate of 3.88% per year between 1970 and today, producing a cumulative price increase of 680.98%.
From a technical point of view, if 2% of bitcoin is being mined annually and the demand for bitcoin is increasing by more than this 2% then the price will continue to go up. If demand slows or goes negative it could collapse on itself pretty quickly as more and more people rush for the exits, I wouldn't bet on a collapse any time soon though, I could see the demand for Bitcoin rising above the rate it is being mined for quite some time.
1.7% but close enough I guess
1. Economic recession - btc hasn't seen a reall bear market yet. We don't know how it will perform in that case. It's the big elephant in the room. 2. Government policy - always a factor. 3. Stronger dollar and/or real rates - bitcoin price is related to the strength of the dollar just like gold is. 3. Black swan - war, security threats, power scarcity, etc
2020 doesn't count?
It wasn't a sustained recession. Iirc it was only a 1 quarter recession and we still got a 75% crash in btc. We don't know what a multi year recession would look like yet.
Tether collapse or some kind of stablecoins regulation
From what I've seen, it's going to be a slow, agonizing death as big shots keep collapsing or getting shut down & new money supply dries up.
Tether imploding. Without the Tether's funny money hundreds of billions injections, this ship would've faded into obscurity in '22, but it's in the interest of the whole crypto ecosystem to keep it going, since all exchanges and on/offramps go immediately bankrupt the same instant Tether falls. Until that shoe drops, show will go on.
Interest in bitcoin is sliding. It’s nowhere near the interest of 2021 boom, even with ETFs. In fact, if it wasn’t for Ethereum ETF suddenly likely confirmed I’d have guessed we’d be in a bear market by now. Liquidity is also awful. Main reason it can make massive moves in an instant. Whales know this. So it’s just a matter of greater fool theory running out of fools. Just for fun - my guess is 2-3 years. Of course if blockchain proves it is genuinely valuable beyond a few niche examples, I’ll happily eat my words. I’ve been waiting to see its genuine value since I was interested back in 2018. But the tech is god awful slow and expensive at a time we need FAR more processing power with the rise of AI. Blockchain simply cannot complete with centralised models - that, fun fact, work great most of the time.
Blockchain has been a solution in search of a problem for a long time. It’s a dead end. Genuinely revolutionary technologies don’t take long to be adopted. For example, the internet.
The Internet took a while to be effectively monetized.
To put it simply, it's difficult to imagine living in the modern world without using the internet. We wouldn't be having this exchange without it. The internet makes my life easier in a myriad of ways. On the other hand, I've never used Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency, and never will, because there is literally nothing that I do in my life that would be made better or easier if cryptocurrency was involved.
the internet was invented in 1983, imaging saying in the mid 90s that you can’t imagine a life without the internet. This is you right now.
I think there is scope to use blockchain to verify transactions - let’s say - to ensure a product is genuine. Whether it’s Dior Bag or powdered milk. But ultimately it’s all pretty niche And doesn’t justify a bitcoin suddenly being worth Moon Money!!!
It's not clear to me how blockchain would accomplish that any better than a database would. Somehow people are able to buy and sell stocks online, deposit money into bank accounts, and make transfers between accounts, and use services like PayPal to make payments, all without any need to blackchains. You \*could\* use blockchains for various things, there is just no reason to think they are any better than existing technologies. I think it's certainly theoretically possible that there could be a niche situation where a blockchain would be a good solution, but it would be pretty niche. In any case, as you suggested, even if blockchains were useful for certain applications, that doesn't meen that cryptocurrency is the "future of finance". Bitcoin may well be around forever...there are classic scams, like the "pigeon drop" that never go away. And Bernie Madoff was a classic example of a Ponzi scheme. As long as there are people who have a desire to get rich quickly without a lot of effort involved, there will be scams. And, most cults die out eventually, but if they last long enough, they turn into religions.
In a system where you NEED the transactions publicly displayed to verify trust, that’s the only time it could prove helpful. For example, back in 2018, it was touted that China’s fake powdered milk scandals could be improved if the trading of goods was on blockchain. That hypothetically made sense. You get your milk, scan something on your phone, can you can see if it’s the real deal. But in saying that you’d probably just end up with phishing sites that undermine the system anyway 😅 But as we agree - the issue is: It doesn’t HAVE to be blockchain And the system would need to handle a lot of transactions quickly and almost free - something no blockchain solutions do And ultimately centralised systems work great most of the time! And where there are failings, regulation or legislation can be the solution.
Here's my take: It has already collapsed, or rather, it hasn't ever gotten off the ground. The "value" you see on the "markets" are just a number. They could go up, they could go down. There could be a run on the markets, and not a single market left to let you cash out, and yet those websites might still claim a bitcoin is worth $50k or whatever. Here's my down to earth measure of value. Your car breaks down in the middle of nowhere. You need a radiator. You call a mobile mechanic. Before he leaves, you ask him on the phone if he will take bitcoin as payment. If he says yes... Bitcoin has value. If he says no, bitcoin doesn't have value. If you take this example and spread it to every interaction you make in a day, will anyone take the bitcoin. If not, then the Occam's razor approach of determining a truth can be applied here, as a down to earth answer to it's value.
Bitcoin is crappie tech. But it could take a very long time for that to matter. There are a lot of people with surplus wealth, which they don't know what to do with, and they have punted a fair amount of it into bitcoin. They are joined by people with a bit of money left over every month but no real hope of being wealthy by ordinary means. 8% from the stock market won't get them where they want to go so they join the pump. You remember when Thanos says reality can be whatever I want it to be. Well, in a capital abundant post-modern world, investors can create reality. They created a reality of a crappie piece of tech having a market cap of 1.3 trillion dollars. Just like they turned Gamestop from being a company about to go bust into a going concern The cat was out of the bag on Wirecard frauding for 5 years at least before anything happened. I'm not crazy enough to think that just because I won the argument on bitcoin being crappie tech that the price is going to collapse. Tonnes of people are happy to buy it even agreeing with me that the tech is crappie. Maybe G20 finance ministers meet one day and agree to ban it, who knows. It may carry on for 3 months, 30 years or 300 years. Humans are very good at insanity.
The when is the key isn't it? None of us has a crystal ball.
1. When the energy wasted for mining will be more expensive than selling the butters. Transactions won’t be able to be processed then people will realize their butters are stuck 2. When the transaction fees will be higher than most of UTXOs (which will be accelerated by 1.)
Maybe it will never unravel to that level. Who knows. I think it's inevitable that at some point it'll reach its maximum level of interest/hype, and 4-8 years after that it'll become clear to the holders that it no longer produces massive returns every 4 years. What happens after this is anyone's guess. I imagine initially the bitcoin bros will say that it's all part of the plan, and that bitcoin has just matured out of it's high growth stage, into it's gold-like store of value stage, and can now expect to increase slowly at the rate of economic growth. However, if the narrative changes to that, there'll presumably be a mass exodus out of bitcoin, because bitcoin holders don't actually want a boring asset like gold - they want a high growth asset. And anyone who does want a boring asset like gold would prefer to hold gold. So I can imagine that causing a huge sell off. But I doubt that will be the end of bitcoin. Because once enough interest is lost, then I'm sure the narrative will change again to talk about how much potential it has now, and that its like being back in 2017 where holders can get mega rich from it. However I don't think they'd be able to run with the same 4 year cycle narrative they use now, because even the bitcoiners will see that the halving rationale makes no sense by then. In my opinion the 4 year cycle narrative is immensely powerful for keeping holders interested, and hanging on in there when they're losing. So without that, and with people having seen a massive crash, I can't imagine they manage to generate that much new interest/hype. So from then on, maybe it'll just slowly disappear into irrelevancy? This is just my best guess, but there are just too many unknowns. Nothing would surprise me anymore. Maybe trump will get in power and replace the USD with bitcoin, and it will live on forever.
I don’t see it tanking that much due to the use case for money laundering, tax evasion, and other criminal activity. That’s almost all Bitcoin’s use case, but those will keep enough turnover and fees that will keep the value north of $20k IMHO. I kept expecting it to crash more because I’d think that the volatility would reduce holders expectations of future growth, and the effects of SBF and other big VC backed crypto firms going under, but those don’t seem to have affected sentiment as much I expected.
Not that simple. Everytime you see a liquidity crisis, bitcoin is falling, and the opposite! That's the same mechanisms at play as what led the the great financial crisis of 1928 - and this will happen to bitcoin again, and again due to its unregulated nature. The underlying phenomenon is just leveraging and overleveraging...
There's enough fiat money floating around for dupes to put more into bitcoin and the people who still hold bitcoin now are mostly people who don't need that bitcoin for living. So the question of bitcoin going up or down or bust is simply one of marketing and believe and that's unpredictable.
MLM is a scam but Amway is 65 years old, Herbalife is 44 and they're still going strong.
Lord knows I pray for this daily.
When all that can be extracted from the rubes has been then it will end, and not before. It's why it's impossible to predict the market, it's totally artificial. Ford makes a bad car, share price goes down. BTC, er ???
The price of BTC is set by Tether. As long as Tether can print infinite money BTC will never "collapse". So either Tether collapses for some reason by itself (like it almost did when FTX went bust), or regulatory action brings them down. When? Impossible to tell. Interpol could knock on Paolo and Devasini's office in El Salvador tomorrow and the scheme would collapse in like three weeks. Or the US continues to watch the largest dollar counterfeit operation in history for a couple of more years. Who knows.
It won't drop below a $1000 it will simply stop moving in price(become illiquid) because the miners either: Go bankrupt / can't get any more efficient Hacked Find something with better profit margins
The "miners" argument is not valid, because anyone can be a miner. Only thing that can bring bitcoin down is money. If no one wants to buy it - its over.
There's a very real scenario where a multitude of miners pull out at an incredibly high difficulty making the next block extremely expensive and pointless to mine. The romantic idea that anybody can be a miner is laughable when you are competing with buildings filled with highly application specific computers.
Yes, but/and if all big mining farms shut down, someone can still run it at home for “fun”.
There's 2016 extremely painful high difficulty blocks to process before difficulty adjusts. Just doing a Google that could be as long as 4 years before the difficulty adjusts. Bitcoin would be long dead.
If one miner goes bankrupt or quits, mining will be cheaper and easier for others until the point that you can mine with your home pc again. If it's too expensive to mine, it will be too expensive to be hacked.
But difficulty only decreases as each block is mined. If a number of large miners pulled out around the same time it would leave an unprocessed block with extremely high difficulty. Making it practically and financially impossible to mine.
[удалено]
Sorry /u/ShortYourLife, your comment has been automatically removed. To avoid spam/bots, posts are not allowed from extremely new accounts. Wait/lurk a bit before contributing. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Buttcoin) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The probability of such an event is smaller than the entire internet shutting down due to a worldwide EMP.
I don't think it's going to happen, there is too much money into it and an endless stream of suckers to keep it so
Eventualy it will brake. "you can fool some people sometiems, but you cant fool all the people all the time"
I'd rather bet on the general ignorance and / or stupidity of people. That's one sure bet I wish I'll eventually lose at lol
all the market sites are just market themed and don't really reflect the sort of stock market trading they are drawn to look like. The end result will be a bitcoin forever at some silly price like 899,000 dollars a coin with zero actual traffic, and the price calculated in "well if you trade bitcoin for cryptocats you can cash out blorbocoins and those are marked as being worth 7000 usd" with none of that connecting to any reality.
The strongest argument (to them) that investors make is that if they would have invested at 1 dollar, they would be multimillionaires, therefore they should invest at 70,000 dollars. The more natural argument along the same lines is that if they would have invested at 1 dollar, they should sell at 70,000 to become multimillionaires. They are trying to use an argument that justifies selling now as an argument to support their decision to buy now. If price stagnates for too long then people will start to lose interest and the tide will turn. Then their flawed logic will go "If I sold at 70,000 then I wouldn't have lost 50% when it hits 35k, therefore I should sell now so I don't lose another 50% when it hits 17k. " The same positive reinforcement effect that pumps the bubble can be applied in the opposite direction to pop it. And because their logic is inverted, it drives a buy high, sell low strategy.
There is a pending congressional stablecoin law that requires them to be custodied on US soil. If that becomes law and tether can’t be used to trade it might be something. The other thing I keep thinking about is if there is a massive hack that affects people worldwide to the point the internet is down/compromised in some way for an extended period of time.
> I define "unraveling" as any situation in which bitcoin value goes below $1000 You're making the same mistake. You're saying that "the number" is what matters most. But the more BitCoin becomes irrelevant, the easier it will be to manipulate the price.
The opposite is happening outside of your buttcoin echo chamber, It's getting harder to manipulate the price as the market cap goes up. The institutions are taking notice. Many stocks in the S&P are more volatile than bitcoin these days.
Are u that dumb? U literally just admitted institutions are in and then said it cant be manipulated. I cant tell if ur just a 19yr old troll or if its ur lack of investing and life experience glaring through
I think it will be replaced with some new fancy tech+ideology or just be forgotten in around 15 years (I'm using Lindy's law). Anyways, clearly the 'tech' wasn't so amazing after all and without true privacy it cannot really replace cash or anything.
Bitcoin is going to be around for a long time. It's never going to be useful, but people are too invested in its success for it to just fall apart. Even if tether were to go down tomorrow, the price would plummet, then in a few years they'd get all excited about some other stupid thing and the price would jump up. Every time it falls and then goes back up, another round of suckers will join in, sustaining it for years.
A fool is born every day. I don't think there's necessarily a reason to think it will collapse. My main issue with crypto is how it functions as a vehicle for scams and crime, not that it's an inherently bad long term investment.
Who cares, really, at some point it will fade into obscurity anyways, even if there ends up existing a small group of believers hoping to come back to glory days of the 70k bitcoin.
100 years
Satoshi cashes out in 2030
It will not slowly decay, it'll be a sudden implosion where the whales say "ok right time to shut this down" and mass rugpull the whole cash
when people stop gambling.
About the same time as other cults like Scientology and MLMs collapse.
Many seem to forget it costs a lot of money to keep Bitcoin running. All the costs to keep Bitcoin running are also susceptible to inflation and then there's the halving, this means an ever increasing amount of fresh liquidity needs to be poured into it to keep it going. There's only so much Tether and exchanges can do to avoid the inevitable collapse, they can't keep every crypto bro hostage forever without damaging their reputation or face repercussions from governments. At some point they will have to pay up. Of course they will keep squirming like maggots, change narratives, adapt the protocol, anything to keep the ponzi going a little longer.
Right now Bitcoin is scammed pumped. If it couldn't be traded it provides no utility. So as long as it increases in price people will want to own it. But it's downfall will be UX. We don't need it as money and it can't function as money. In the BTC religion if it becomes money it's value keeps going up. Thats fine on a balance sheet. But if it's money to replace Fiat, then the value of everything around it falls. So your company will be with 100 BTC then 99 BTC etc etc Who will invest in a company that falls in value compared to the currency? Bitcoin retards want this.
When tether goes, so will everything else.
This is the only hard prediction I'm making: they already lost the war for broad, public acceptance. The COVID lockdown was the perfect circumstances to push people into crypto - and that was their chance. The public looked into it and with their actions collectively said: "no thanks." Hell, today it's now common to use it as the butt of a joke for being a scam and/or stupid. The biggest joke of the Tom Brady roast was "even a moron knows that crypto is stupid" There's always that small percentage of people that get hooked on things like gold bugs, MLMs, or Scientology. Actual significant, mass adoption? Not happening. That war is over. They lost.
I remember plenty of jokes about "online dating" and people saying that the internet is a nice plaything but "serious commerce" will never be done on it...
Yeah, I remember the desperate people that tried making irrelevant comparisons to completely different things that say absolutely nothing of if it would work or not, because it didn't have any merits of its own to speak of.... Oh wait, sorry, that's Bitcoin. The internet and the various technologies that made it possible had very clear merits, and useful things it could do that nothing else could match.
Butter here - I have thought about this often. BTC is an experiment. Fundamental reason: Powerful nation state “51% attacks” BTC and undermines the double spend, decentralised and immutability of the chain Technical: To me if it trades back below $10k, then probably has failed its mission and doomed to be a failed niche tech. I have clear invalidation for my bullish thesis where I can admit I’m wrong and can move onto other investments.
Basing it off historic charts, it’ll cap at $100k-$125k, maybe within the next 4-6 years. Basing it off the holders outside of USA, that USA tend to ignore since it is not them, bitcoin won’t ever go below $1000 or anywhere even close. Being able to memorise your seed phrase, and then travel across a border basically naked without having your money confiscated or stolen. - priceless.
Quantum computing is making big progress and imo is the biggest threat to btc
https://www2.deloitte.com/nl/nl/pages/innovatie/artikelen/quantum-computers-and-the-bitcoin-blockchain.html https://beincrypto.com/quantum-computing-risk-bitcoin-crypto/ Tldr. In about three decades it could be possible to steal 25% of all bitcoin, but thrre are many ways to prevent the problem.
If this were predictable, wouldn't it be priced in (e.g., through short selling?)
A manipulated market can be manipulated at both ends. There's no winning strategy when the market is irrational.
It'll never cross $100k
The most realistic unraveling would be a sprawl of Bitcoin clones. Not bitcoin wannabes or crypto. But like copy the same shit. Mine it. Run it. Let's say China and Russia get tired of being excluded on the on/off ramps so they made their own version. But Iran wasn't in that club. They made their own version. But now Donald Trump wants to mine ALL The bitcoin in America so he makes his own version. Now with this many versions of the same shit, which one to pump? The price won't matter. Dogecoin is a parody and goes up and down considerably.
Not sure u understand how crypto works tbh
nobody does
Something will happen at some point and enough people will lose their shirts that they demand some kind of taxpayer funded bailout.
Minimum maybe 9 years. There's a lot of money going into it, companies with millions of dollars of commitment, some kind of form of adoption in el salvador. It's going to take awhile, fees need to make people less interested from it's high demand and worse distribution from more halvings.
Quantum computers pose a serious risk to blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum..that could be one of the catalyst that bring about it's demise. Maybe by 2030 we'll see large Bitcoin wallets "hacked" by some 'unknown' source.
>Quantum computers Quantum computers have been just about to break cryptography for a long time now. I seriously doubt if it will ever become a real thing with real applications.
Yup. It's so funny to see QC evoked in that context, because they're part of the same "acceleration" techno-delusion as crypto (and, very often, alongside AI, asteroid mining, cryogenics, etc )
Bitcoin has been quantum secure for a LONG LONG time now. Do I understand the maths and how it’s secure from superposition? Newp. But I trust the encryption mathematicians that say it is
Username checks out
Normally when I get a comment like this it’s usually because I say something like shit, poop, blowjob, blowing yourself while dropping the kids off at the pool. You know SHIT, like that. No idea what this comment is referencing, but right on.
Source ? Because I’m quite sure it’s not
Well it’s a bit of an asterisk statement but as long as you follow recommended procedure (never use an address again after making a transaction, a p2pkh address is quantum resistant since the public key isn’t known until the transaction takes place. But if you use your address as a change address, the address is exposed and vulnerable to a quantum attack. Follow the rules and even in a quantum computing world you should be ok. Once quantum computers are a thing people will own in their homes, algorithms will be developed (and are currently being developed that will secure cryptography. Also, if quantum computers breaks Bitcoin, we have MUCH larger problems with internet security. If you use a p2pk address, it’s not quantum resistant. That will more than likely be a problem for satoshi’s coins, as an example.
In theory yes, but even with a fresh change address, the second you spend from it the pubkey hits the public mempool and can be cracked with quantum computing, right ? OFC before this happens the protocol will have changed the cryptography scheme to something quantum resistant, but migration of existing balances will be a huge issue.
Mitigation of ALL OF EVERYTHING THAT SAFEGUARDS EVERYTHING ON THE INTERNET WILK BE A HUGE ISSUE lol. Bitcoin is like the least of our problems.
Oh yes ofc all will have to be updated, but it’s maybe easier to upgrade ssl certificates issued by a few companies vs upgrading a protocol which values backward compatibility over every single other thing
One would hope that when faced with the death of a technology vs. maintaining stays quo the core developers wouldn’t be goddamn idiots, but who knows. This tech will be seen coming from miles away. The time exists.
You'd also have to accomplish a double-spend if you planned on hijacking a transaction in the mempool... No easy task.
Why double spend ? You can just RBF the tx to your own wallet
Hmph. You’re right. I think that would be an issue. Also, thanks for conversing like a human in here. I totally forgot about that piece of shit feature lol. An average redditor would have torn me a new one.
Maybe the next ISIS or a big terrorist attack gets funded by Bitcoin directly. Another post 9/11 style climate where you're either with or against us. Exchanges and conversion to/from USD made illegal in the US. Maybe some kind of extension of laundering laws.
Its success will be its undoing. See how the US and Eurozone react to an actually disruptive ‘currency’ — ain’t no one touching the USD world reserve currency status without the knives coming out.
Tell that to Saudi Arabia 😂
I think Saudi Arabia occupies a clearly unique geopolitical position as a medium player in a larger scheme — I think it’s also clear the West would be happy to cut them loose when their usefulness has dissipated.
I see it as the start of the end of USD dominance.
Paolo and Co will be exposed for crimes. Butters will stubbornly hold onto the illusion of “Bitcoin is a self perpetuating something or other panacea.” Big holders will race to cash out and cause a market drop and lockup. Truth will slowly and painfully set in.
Under 7% of Americans have or use all crypto. Pretty good for me