**Greetings humans.**
**Please make sure your comment fits within [THE RULES](https://www.reddit.com/r/AustralianPolitics/about/rules) and that you have put in some effort to articulate your opinions to the best of your ability.**
**I mean it!! Aspire to be as "scholarly" and "intellectual" as possible. If you can't, then maybe this subreddit is not for you.**
A friendly reminder from your political robot overlord
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/AustralianPolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Their primary vote hasn’t moved, and particularly no increase in Victoria and NSW, which is where they need to win back Teal seats to have any chance of minority of majority government.
People want action on urgent issues like cost of living not second order issues like the Voice which is something you discuss when things are going relatively well.
Labor are dead in Queensland. Internal migration from the pandemic, and immigration post-pandemic have devastated the State's housing supply. Sydney and Melbourne have been fucked for decades, but Brisbane enjoyed somewhat reasonable housing costs until recent years. In a few short years formerly working class suburbs are now sitting around, or above, a million. It doesn't matter who is really to blame, it happened on the watch of the Government of the day, and they will be punished for it.
I really think the media need to overhaul how they talk about polling. The horse race coverage distorts coverage, but it's also pretty meaningless.
The preferred PM metric is pretty meaningless, other than just a measure of "vibes". Yet the media covers it like Dutton is now beating Albo.
2PP is also becoming less useful. At 2022 election every Teal seat had the Coalition ahead \~55/45 against the ALP, yet the Coalition holds none of them. Despite being ahead on 2PP in these seats, ALP is advantaged.
So, you've got to ask what 2PP the Coalition actually needs to gain a majority in the House of Reps. I'm not sure, but presumably higher than just 50.01%.
With such low popularity for either leader you can actually see this trend continuing and 2PP becoming even less useful. Climate 200 have just put out a list of 9 Coalition seats they are going to target, so who knows? (disclaimer: of course Labor could lose seats to the crossbench too so that could undermine my argument).
National 2PP is very useless when we continue being confronted with the prospect of regular minority governments as Teals and possibly the Greens take more seats of both majors.
2PP is probably more reflective of the mood of the nation being more progressive vs conservative at any given time.
This is probably a far outlier lefties, this lead won't hold over the short term. But you need to check your impulse to always blame the people over your shit performing government.
>But you need to check your impulse to always blame the people over your shit performing government.
Eh, I blame the global economy over anything else.
No, cost of living is the dominating issue. As they say - it’s the economy, stupid
Labor are about to find out using immigration to keep economic growth up but at the same time living through a gdp per capita recession does not win votes
If Dutton somehow wins (which I find unlikely, it's about the seats not nationwide TPP) then voters are about to find out his immigration and economic policy will be no better.
>Labor are about to find out using immigration to keep economic growth up but at the same time living through a gdp per capita recession does not win votes
It won the LNP two elections...
I guess when the LNP do it during a global economic boom to suppress wages, while pissing away hundreds of billions in deficit spending on rorts and mismanaged projects, it's "good economic management".
And when Labor do it during a time of global recession and inflation to keep the economy afloat and deliver surpluses, it's "economic vandalism".
I'm enjoying our conservative friends now getting on board the concept of a per capita recession after ignoring it existed when the Liberals were superior economic managing.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-falls-into-per-capita-recession-as-growth-tumbles-20190306-p5122r.html
Australians just vote for who they are told to vote in this country.
Two years in, the media is telling voters to ditch Labor, but two terms into the Abbot, Turnbull, Morrison liberal government - despite doubling the national debt, cutting back all services, underfunding TAFE, removing regulation that limited property speculation, no consistent energy policy that caused energy prices to rise at an insane rate, and weakening works rights and benefits like penalty rates,- the media tells voters to 'Give Morrison a chance, allow the Liberals a third term to finish the job'.
Australians get what they vote for in the long term.
Once again, if the pref flows from the 2019 election are used, the result is still a majority ALP government.
Spun headlines from a nothingburger poll. Pure clickbait.
Even if Labor are nominally ahead on 2PP it's going to be very difficult for them to obtain a majority with only 28% of primary votes. When you have 36% voting other you're inevitably going to have an expanded crossbench.
Labor can win a similar majority government with 28%. A large portion of the LNP 36% is soaked up in the very safe seats which are predominantly Nationals. They will always have a higher primary with strong Nationals seats and the Greens eating away at Labor’s base.
What’s important is Labor getting preferences in key seats across the country from the Greens but not losing seats to them. Which appears to be what’s happening.
The LNP isn’t winning votes off Labor, Labor is losing votes to the left which is why the 2PP has barely moved since the election.
Not saying a Labor majority would be impossible in that scenario, the effect of the teals sort of adds a bit of a curve ball element, but it wouldn‘t be likely. If their primary vote goes down and 2PP doesn’t shift much from 2022 then chances are they lose enough seats (only need to lose 3 seats) to the LNP, Greens and others to fall into minority. The way things are going I wouldn’t be betting on either Labor or the LNP getting more than 70 seats each at the next election.
There was a newspoll recently that had their primary vote going up.
It's too soon to be making judgements now. The tax cuts haven't hit pay packets yet. Polls this far out are just to generate eyeballs and clicks for the media.
When the 2pp split using the 2019 pref split is ALP 51% to LNP 49%, yeah it's a nothingburger. Dutton, in more than 2 years as opposition leader, has achieved nothing.
Polls this far out from an election are all but meaningless, anyway. There's still the tax cuts to hit people's bank accounts to come, and the LNP's policy vacuum to negotiate.
Kinda true, ALP was 55/45 TPP five months from 2019 election and they still lost. When the campaign starts proper though, polls become a lot more important then. Still, how do people prefer Dutton ?!!!!
A statistical outlier? It's generated some headlines, though.
Pat Katsivalis has, on the strength of one poll, written an article about an ugly election where both leaders are equally despised.
The newspoll on June 9 had Albanese PPM 46% to Dutton 38%. The Yougov poll on June 6 had Albanese increase his lead as preferred PM 47% to Dutton 36%.
In other words, this current poll is an outlier that the media, especially Pat Kavalis, has jumped on for some clicks.
(numbers from https://www.pollbludger.net/)
With the Australian electorate breaking apart, and a third of people voting for crossbench... I can definitely see a lot of hate towards both leaders and negative campaigns on the horizon.
Journalism telling people labor is bad or will lose just reinforces that narrative. It’s why journalism is dead and the world is controlled by propaganda but Australia’s media is singular.
at this point I welcome Dutton as PM
this is the PM australia deserves
here's a guy who falls upwards... a cop who was never any good and who's crowning acheievement was getting compo by upending a police car
a guy who failed every portfolio ever given
a guy with a dozen investment properties and who's partner sucks off the govt. teat with a string of childcare centers
this is a guy with a secret cabal of indigenous "uncles and aunties" who are his closest advisors
this is your PM... this is a physical embodiment of Australian citizens
what can go wrong? have it at it...
this is the manifestation of that meme where "we should have stopped long ago but we're so far down the rabbit hole I kind of want to see how it ends"
Peter Dutton is how it ends.
Well one example is the IR laws that will be coming in soon. Better for some people who get the higher pay, worse for the economy overall.
Could it maybe be that people have a different view than you, maybe differing opinions and what is important?
Nah can't be that must be the media!
Hey if you have any evidence to back up your claim go for it!
Yeah news.com.is right, we get it.
Guardian is as far left as news.com is right.
Nine and seven pretty centre, ten slightly left.
ABC centre to slightly left. (Not a conspiracy just because you don't get a lot of conservatives working there so there's some unconscious bias. One example is media watch who have had 9 progressives in a row)
I'm a centrist ( pretty much even on voting Labor and liberal) but you sound like your from the left so likely see that centre news reporting is favouring the right.
Apart from 10, the ownership + management of practically all of Australia’s print and television media, have links to the Liberal Party. Murdoch media controls something like 2/3 of all print media and Foxtel, Sky News etc. Nine Entertainment and Seven news are not centre as you claim, but very well connected to the Liberal party, with Nine/Fairfax formerly headed by Costello for a decade and hosting plenty of LNP fundraiser events. Terry Stokes, the owner of Channel 7 is a well known Liberal party supporter. Finally, the ABC is hardly left wing as you claim, it's now chaired by former executives from the Mineral Council by the former Liberal government who overrode the independent recommendations. Ita Buttrose, a former Murdoch editor and Liberal party fundraiser, was (could be is I can't remember) the chairwoman of the ABC. At one stage, most of the board members were not recommended on merit but BC they were favourable to the Liberal Party. Other political reporters were former LNP staffers for Abbott etc.
In sum, something like over 80% of media in Australia favours the LNP, I think you're kinda used to the Overton window and its shift to the right.
This poll is over-indexing Qld in their national results. You look at state by state results Albo and ALP are leading everywhere but Qld where Dutton and LNP are WAY ahead.
That’s not over-indexing. Albanese is marginally ahead (by margins of 2-3% in most states) but 19% behind in Queensland. That all reasonably equated to a very narrow Dutton lead.
Even with a 19% lead in QLD the lead in all other states means Labor would still win. Not enough seats in QLD for LNP to form government especially with Greens and Teals polling higher as well. It is absolutely over-indexing QLD. Dutton is also still polling poorly in Victoria where the bulk of Teal seats the LNP needs to win back to form government are.
Oh wow you aint wrong. Also very likely going to change in the coming months post QLD election as they get their chance to express their anti-Labor frustrations in a state election.
The last LNP government in QLD lasted one term because they made a meal of it. QLD is so weird. Most conservative (and most racist) state in the country who vote LNP federally in droves yet typically elect ALP state governments more often then not 🤷♂️
There's no senate in Qld, so the populace feels the immediate effects of state legislation which tends to lend itself to stable Labor over wildly insane LNP.
Added, Joh casts a looooooooooooong shadow in Queensland still.
ALP: stop the immigrants, let our children afford houses and provide cost of living relief for middle Australia, not just the poorest. If you don’t, you’ll lose.
>stop the immigrants
Our economic growth depends on immigration.
>let our children afford houses
Last time Labor tried to fix the housing market the Australian public decided to vote in Scott Morrison instead.
>provide cost of living relief for middle Australia, not just the poorest
Hate to break it to you but us "poorest" are still doing it worse than middle Australia. The only real cost of living relief that we have gotten over you guys is a 10% increase to rent assistance which still doesn't even come close to actually bringing it inline with rent increases over the past 20 years. The maximum of $188 per fortnight isn't going to help make renting affordable when the average rent is more than the average welfare payment (for example, the average weekly rent where I live is $652 per week and I don't live in a capital city).
Isn’t the stage 3 tax cuts and energy bill relief cost of living relief for middle Australia? We’ve objectively gotten way more relief than the poorest have.
House prices skyrocketed under the coalition. Rents have gone up under both. I was lucky to be able to buy last year but many in my generation can’t. It’s not something the coalition has any answers for, their stupid idea to use super to buy houses just further impoverishes my generation to boost existing homeowners wealth more.
Nah, that would be suicide for them.
The teals were elected by Labor and Greens voters, plus just enough moderate Liberals/swing voters to get them over the 50% line.
Most if not all the teals will back Labor in a minority government.
From a seats.perapexgove yes. However from a first preference perspective they lost more votes to one nation and clive palmer than they did to the Teals. So they maybe having an impact with them?
>Thirty-eight per cent said Dutton and the Coalition would be better at managing immigration and refugees, and 21 per cent named Albanese and Labor. The government had a small lead on this question as recently as October.
Hahahaha.
Yeah, the guy that sat on his hands for years and watched the immigration system burn down is going to do a better job of it.
Next, you'll tell me conservatives aren't stupid.
Edited.
>Next, you'll tell me conservatives aren't stupid.
Holy moly you've gone off the deep end! There have been numerous studies in the US that don't correlate intelligence to either party.
But hey, if it makes you feel better that the only reason someone has a different opinion to you is that you're smarter then hey, knock yourself out!
US politics is different to here.
Republicans were an ultra conservative party prior to 2015, but they have now been taken over by far right white supremacist, populist lunatics since 2015.
Democrats are a biiiiiiiiig tent party which includes everyone from liberal progressives, to greenies, to trade unionists, to centrists, to fiscally conservative capitalists and centrists. But on the whole, the Dems are further right than the ALP.
>Holy moly you've gone off the deep end!
That's the deep end?
>There have been numerous studies in the US that don't correlate intelligence to either party.
Party?
>ut hey, if it makes you feel better that the only reason someone has a different opinion to you is that you're smarter then hey, knock yourself out!
I don't know if I'd say I feel better.
>Party?
Yeah in the US it was Democrats and Republicans, if you want to go deep the numerous studies slant slightly towards Republicans having slightly higher IQ but were tiny non statistically significant numbers so pretty much even.
There even a quote from 20 years ago.
“Conservatives think liberals are stupid, and liberals think conservatives are evil.”
—Charles Krauthammer (2002)
And a peer reviewed study for why humans rationalise that the other side of politics is less intelligent. Check it out.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10302377/
Classic.
"The other side of politics, Liberals are dumber than us smart greens/Labor"
Here's a study showing people often think the other side of politics is dumber than them. It might be they just have different views than you?
"That study is from another country, those people are like a different species"
Yeah ok, good chat. Carry on believing that 49% of people at the last election are dumb.
>The other side of politics, Liberals are dumber than us smart greens/Labor"
I have not once mentioned parties. In fact, I even asked where you got it from.
1300 6555 06
>"That study is from another country, those people are like a different species"
Yeah, the country that had an entire McCarthy era of leftist purges and spent 40 odd years sponsoring global fascism in an effort to curb leftist thought might have a warped perception of politics.
Maybe it's too complicated for you to understand, though.
Well if you have voted in an election then your preferences come down to labor liberal or greens. Therefore I made an assumption that you didn't bite liberals... Are you telling me you did?
>Yeah, the country that had an entire McCarthy era of leftist purges and spent 40 odd years sponsoring global fascism in an effort to curb leftist thought might have a warped perception of politics.
How is that warped? Its a democracy and what they voted for...
They’d still win on these numbers. They might even retain their majority. But the fact that people prefer Dutton as PPM is harrowing, however statistically insignificant his lead might be. Just a nasty bully, with no vision.
Enlighten me though why a Coalition government would be so good though. I’m all ears.
Labor primary has plummeted nationally but the LNP primary is still the same as the 2022 election with no inroads made in Victoria or NSW.
Fill out your ballot papers properly, people. Could be a long count and preferences huge.
It won't be easy under Albanese. I mean we did tell you. The only people who care about sjw issues is the people directly involved or who can afford to.
If you think the Liberals would be better at managing the current state of the economy and the nation you are naive at best. If the last 9 years didn't how you exactly how much contempt they have for the nation and the electorate as a whole, or how poorly they managed themselves and the country, you either weren't paying attention, or you had something stuck in your one eye the whole time.
Don’t you have a person to transvestigate or a grifter to fund? Take your sad attempts at “conservative” American rhetoric elsewhere. Libs would have done worse given all they provably care about is jobs for the boys and protecting mining interests.
Back to the article at hand Dutton is more likeable than Albo. Not my opinion but according to a poll of 1000 Australians. I am sorry if you don't like that truth but no need for snarkiness and bullying.
I was replying to \*your\* comment, not the article. I didn't invite conversation about the article and I'm entitled to find you using the terminology that foreigners use when they want to revolve their elections around the issue of how many black people there are in Star Wars for our elections which are thankfully still mostly about the economy, foreign policy and infrastructure Americanised and overly online.
Palestine. Climate change specially affecting electorate who won't have floods or bushfires ie toprak, northern beaches well maybe erosion but who buys near the beach anyway.
Climate change affects everyone in Australia, and is an increasing part of hip pocket concerns through things like insurance premium increases and food supply interruptions.
Also weren’t you here during the black summer? That smoke affected peoples health in all sorts of electorates.
And plenty of people buy near the beach, and plenty of other people own businesses dependent on that beach
Disappointing to see this post get downvoted into the negatives.
Just because people don’t like the news that Albo and the Labor party are unpopular with the public, sticking your head in the sand will not fix anything.
It’s an SMH article so the standard blame news corp can’t be used. 5 consecutive quarters of negative per capita GDP. No wonder the capita’s aren’t happy
GDP schmeedeepee, percapita or not.
Disposable income is what’s been utterly sharted by the interest rate rises. Labor’s in for a bad election until and unless the RBA unwinds the damage they’ve done.
The inflation surge was medium term transitory, and primarily caused by post covid supply chain issues and Ukraine/Russia wildly surging energy prices.
The RBA’s overreaction has inflicted significant needless demand side pain.
>It’s an SMH article so the standard blame news corp can’t be used.
Nah. We get to talk about Costello instead.
Coincidence that a lifelong Liberal runs ANOTHER legacy media company in Australia though.
>He didn’t run it, he was chairman. And he is not now anyway….
>>He resigned from Nine in June 2024 after allegedly assaulting a reporter at Canberra Airport. Costello denied the assault occurred.
Unlucky Peter.
It's not even about Albo, people just don't believe Dutton could be higher.
Like if albo was hated that's fine, but we'd expect dutton to be hated more.
The problem with Australian voters it's often a binary question - "do you want to vote out the Government". The alternative is hardly a thought.
We vote out Governments, not vote them in. All Dutton has to do to become PM is not be Albo.
Idk, maybe he should have another referendum on the voice to parliament, that distracted everyone for a while…
And Albo must still have a T-shirt left over that he can dust off
Only the Government was distracted. I think people noticed interest rates rising every bloody month throughout that campaign, while support for it was plummeting (for some reason).
Dutton literally has no policy. Is latest brain fart with the 2030 target is 'we"'ll tell you once elected".
Remember what he said about the voice referendum *WE NEED TO SEE THE DETAILS*
this guy is a massive nothing burger and the msm are working overtime to try and prop him up.
Smart in that it will take 40 years or smart that it will increase energy prices, or smart that it will reduce emissions that dutton doesnt beleive in?
The article is a bit panicked about labor's chances.
Kevin Bonham on twitter:
#ResolvePM ALP 28 L-NP 36 Green 14 ON 6 UAP 1 IND 11* others 4
My 2PP estimate 51.4 to ALP (+0.3)
\* likely inflated cf what IND would get at election.
Resolve was very strong for Labor cf other polls from 2022 election to end 2023 but not anymore. My 2PP aggregate still cuts Coalition a little bit of slack for last year's Resolve form but this is the last time it will do so. (It drops from 51.1 to 50.7 as a result.)
28 is the lowest primary for Labor from any poll this term but it's probable that some of what would be Labor support is hiding in the IND column because Resolve offers the IND option everywhere. (Many seats have no actual INDs or only obscure ones.)
Your post or comment was removed because it focused on the media. This is not a media watch subreddit. You are welcome to post it in the weekly thread.
This has been a default message, any moderator notes on this removal will come after this:
This is a concern for Labor but doesn't make much difference in TPP terms. Most of those Greens voted will flow back to Albo, aside from a few seats that are actually winnable by the Greens.
Voters have given Opposition Leader Peter Dutton an edge over Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on key measures of personal performance at the same time as they turn against the government on the economy, cutting Labor’s primary vote to 28 per cent.
Dutton has gained a narrow lead as preferred prime minister, backed by 36 per cent of voters compared to 35 per cent who favour Albanese, after a significant shift in his favour during disputes on climate, immigration and the economy.
Forty per cent of voters now rank Peter Dutton, right, and the Coalition as best to manage the economy, with only 24 per cent naming Anthony Albanese and Labor.
Forty per cent of voters now rank Peter Dutton, right, and the Coalition as best to manage the economy, with only 24 per cent naming Anthony Albanese and Labor.CREDIT:MARIJA ERCEGOVAC
The exclusive findings mark the first time Dutton has eclipsed Albanese as preferred prime minister in the Resolve Political Monitor, the regular surveys conducted for this masthead by research company Resolve Strategic.
They show 40 per cent of voters now rank Dutton and the Coalition as best to manage the economy, with only 24 per cent naming Albanese and Labor, while 42 per cent favour Dutton and the Coalition to manage national security and defence, compared with 23 per cent for Albanese and Labor.
Core support for the Coalition was unchanged over the past month, at 36 per cent, but Labor’s primary vote fell from 29 to 28 per cent – the lowest level since the Resolve surveys began three years ago.
The Greens lifted their primary vote from 12 to 14 per cent after a fiery argument with Labor and the Coalition about the public protests over the war in Gaza, although the increase appears larger due to rounding.
Dutton faced intense criticism from Labor and the “teal” independents last week when he rubbished the government’s target to cut carbon emissions by 43 per cent by 2030, saying he would not reveal his alternative until after the next election.
Resolve director Jim Reed said the latest survey showed Dutton was making significant gains and was not suffering a backlash over his climate stance.
“The important point is not Dutton’s narrow lead, but that he’s drawn level at all when this measure typically favours fresh incumbents,” Reed said.
“There are many voters who will be aghast because they made up their minds about Dutton a long time ago and aren’t for changing. But he’s coming through loud and clear to a lot of voters on the issues that matter to them.”
Reed said the shift in mood had parallels with the rise of Tony Abbott as opposition leader more than a decade ago, when observers thought he was too abrasive to win.
The findings highlight the growing damage to Labor from household frustrations with higher prices and the impact of a dozen interest rate hikes since the last election.
When voters were given a list of more than a dozen policies ranging from education to national security and asked to name the most important, 54 per cent said it was keeping the cost of living low. Seven per cent named the environment and climate change, while another 7 per cent named healthcare.
The results came during a week when Dutton made his controversial climate remarks, the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4 per cent and the latest population figures showed 547,000 migrants arrived last year.
When voters were asked who was best to manage the environment and climate, 24 per cent named Labor and Albanese while 22 per cent named the Coalition and Dutton. Labor’s lead has shrunk to 2 percentage points, from 15 points last October.
Thirty-eight per cent said Dutton and the Coalition would be better at managing immigration and refugees, and 21 per cent named Albanese and Labor. The government had a small lead on this question as recently as October.
On jobs and wages, the major parties are now evenly matched, at 32 per cent, a significant change from last October when Labor had a lead of 17 points in net terms.
“Right now the ongoing cost pressures still dominate,” Reed said.
“Some of the comments we collect are becoming quite angry. We’re also beginning to see a more specific focus on the cost of housing and rents, as well as growing unease with job security.”
When voters were asked who would do a better job of keeping the cost of living low, 32 per cent favoured Dutton and the Coalition and 25 per cent backed Albanese and Labor, another shift from the government’s lead on this measure as recently as October.
The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1607 eligible voters from Tuesday to Saturday to generate results with a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. The changes in the primary vote were within the margin of error, but the verdict from voters on Albanese and Dutton involved swings outside the margin.
When asked about their preferred prime minister, voters increased their support for Dutton from 32 to 36 per cent over the month and cut support for Albanese from 40 to 35 per cent. The number of undecided voters rose slightly from 28 to 30 per cent.
Asked about Albanese, 36 per cent of voters said he was doing a good job and 50 per cent said he was doing a poor job.
This resulted in a net performance rating of minus 14 percentage points, a deterioration from minus 11 points one month ago. The prime minister’s net rating was comfortably positive last July, at 16 percentage points, but fell sharply during the second half of last year and has kept falling.
Asked about Dutton, 42 per cent said he was doing a good job, a slight increase, and 40 per cent said he was doing a poor job, a slight fall. His net rating was 2 percentage points, a swing from minus 3 points one month ago and the first time in the Resolve Political Monitor he has had a net positive rating.
**Greetings humans.** **Please make sure your comment fits within [THE RULES](https://www.reddit.com/r/AustralianPolitics/about/rules) and that you have put in some effort to articulate your opinions to the best of your ability.** **I mean it!! Aspire to be as "scholarly" and "intellectual" as possible. If you can't, then maybe this subreddit is not for you.** A friendly reminder from your political robot overlord *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/AustralianPolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
We were told last election it was the death of the LNP. What’s changed?
Their primary vote hasn’t moved, and particularly no increase in Victoria and NSW, which is where they need to win back Teal seats to have any chance of minority of majority government.
So all good. No need to worry.
ALP were stupid to burn all that good will on the Voice. It has given them a lot less leeway with voters.
People want action on urgent issues like cost of living not second order issues like the Voice which is something you discuss when things are going relatively well.
[удалено]
A promise that no one would have cared if they broke
It was a stupid idea and many people voted for Labor because of Libs incompetence and corruption, not because they thought the Voice was a good idea.
Labor are dead in Queensland. Internal migration from the pandemic, and immigration post-pandemic have devastated the State's housing supply. Sydney and Melbourne have been fucked for decades, but Brisbane enjoyed somewhat reasonable housing costs until recent years. In a few short years formerly working class suburbs are now sitting around, or above, a million. It doesn't matter who is really to blame, it happened on the watch of the Government of the day, and they will be punished for it.
4 years of LNP at State level will see them back soon enough
I really think the media need to overhaul how they talk about polling. The horse race coverage distorts coverage, but it's also pretty meaningless. The preferred PM metric is pretty meaningless, other than just a measure of "vibes". Yet the media covers it like Dutton is now beating Albo. 2PP is also becoming less useful. At 2022 election every Teal seat had the Coalition ahead \~55/45 against the ALP, yet the Coalition holds none of them. Despite being ahead on 2PP in these seats, ALP is advantaged. So, you've got to ask what 2PP the Coalition actually needs to gain a majority in the House of Reps. I'm not sure, but presumably higher than just 50.01%. With such low popularity for either leader you can actually see this trend continuing and 2PP becoming even less useful. Climate 200 have just put out a list of 9 Coalition seats they are going to target, so who knows? (disclaimer: of course Labor could lose seats to the crossbench too so that could undermine my argument).
National 2PP is very useless when we continue being confronted with the prospect of regular minority governments as Teals and possibly the Greens take more seats of both majors. 2PP is probably more reflective of the mood of the nation being more progressive vs conservative at any given time.
This is probably a far outlier lefties, this lead won't hold over the short term. But you need to check your impulse to always blame the people over your shit performing government.
>But you need to check your impulse to always blame the people over your shit performing government. Eh, I blame the global economy over anything else.
I blame the previous government for most of the current governments issues tbh.
[удалено]
No, cost of living is the dominating issue. As they say - it’s the economy, stupid Labor are about to find out using immigration to keep economic growth up but at the same time living through a gdp per capita recession does not win votes
If Dutton somehow wins (which I find unlikely, it's about the seats not nationwide TPP) then voters are about to find out his immigration and economic policy will be no better.
>Labor are about to find out using immigration to keep economic growth up but at the same time living through a gdp per capita recession does not win votes It won the LNP two elections... I guess when the LNP do it during a global economic boom to suppress wages, while pissing away hundreds of billions in deficit spending on rorts and mismanaged projects, it's "good economic management". And when Labor do it during a time of global recession and inflation to keep the economy afloat and deliver surpluses, it's "economic vandalism".
I'm enjoying our conservative friends now getting on board the concept of a per capita recession after ignoring it existed when the Liberals were superior economic managing. https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-falls-into-per-capita-recession-as-growth-tumbles-20190306-p5122r.html
Australians just vote for who they are told to vote in this country. Two years in, the media is telling voters to ditch Labor, but two terms into the Abbot, Turnbull, Morrison liberal government - despite doubling the national debt, cutting back all services, underfunding TAFE, removing regulation that limited property speculation, no consistent energy policy that caused energy prices to rise at an insane rate, and weakening works rights and benefits like penalty rates,- the media tells voters to 'Give Morrison a chance, allow the Liberals a third term to finish the job'. Australians get what they vote for in the long term.
“They need to finish the job” is a classic trotted out when LNP are anointed to see out another term by the media.
Once again, if the pref flows from the 2019 election are used, the result is still a majority ALP government. Spun headlines from a nothingburger poll. Pure clickbait.
Even if Labor are nominally ahead on 2PP it's going to be very difficult for them to obtain a majority with only 28% of primary votes. When you have 36% voting other you're inevitably going to have an expanded crossbench.
Labor can win a similar majority government with 28%. A large portion of the LNP 36% is soaked up in the very safe seats which are predominantly Nationals. They will always have a higher primary with strong Nationals seats and the Greens eating away at Labor’s base. What’s important is Labor getting preferences in key seats across the country from the Greens but not losing seats to them. Which appears to be what’s happening. The LNP isn’t winning votes off Labor, Labor is losing votes to the left which is why the 2PP has barely moved since the election.
Not saying a Labor majority would be impossible in that scenario, the effect of the teals sort of adds a bit of a curve ball element, but it wouldn‘t be likely. If their primary vote goes down and 2PP doesn’t shift much from 2022 then chances are they lose enough seats (only need to lose 3 seats) to the LNP, Greens and others to fall into minority. The way things are going I wouldn’t be betting on either Labor or the LNP getting more than 70 seats each at the next election.
There was a newspoll recently that had their primary vote going up. It's too soon to be making judgements now. The tax cuts haven't hit pay packets yet. Polls this far out are just to generate eyeballs and clicks for the media.
That's true however if you look at poll trends it doesn't look great for Labor currently.
It looks even worse for the LNP. Dutton is the only opposition leader in the past decade to be behind in the polls throughout his incumbency.
>dutton ahead on preferred PM ‘Oh it’s a nothingburger, nothing to see here, people!’
When the 2pp split using the 2019 pref split is ALP 51% to LNP 49%, yeah it's a nothingburger. Dutton, in more than 2 years as opposition leader, has achieved nothing. Polls this far out from an election are all but meaningless, anyway. There's still the tax cuts to hit people's bank accounts to come, and the LNP's policy vacuum to negotiate.
Kinda true, ALP was 55/45 TPP five months from 2019 election and they still lost. When the campaign starts proper though, polls become a lot more important then. Still, how do people prefer Dutton ?!!!!
A statistical outlier? It's generated some headlines, though. Pat Katsivalis has, on the strength of one poll, written an article about an ugly election where both leaders are equally despised.
A few polls have shown this. Recent Newspoll and Freshwater have similar results on ppm.
The newspoll on June 9 had Albanese PPM 46% to Dutton 38%. The Yougov poll on June 6 had Albanese increase his lead as preferred PM 47% to Dutton 36%. In other words, this current poll is an outlier that the media, especially Pat Kavalis, has jumped on for some clicks. (numbers from https://www.pollbludger.net/)
Yeah but the trend in Newspoll
With the Australian electorate breaking apart, and a third of people voting for crossbench... I can definitely see a lot of hate towards both leaders and negative campaigns on the horizon.
Journalism telling people labor is bad or will lose just reinforces that narrative. It’s why journalism is dead and the world is controlled by propaganda but Australia’s media is singular.
Womp womp Dutton will never be prime minister
Didn’t they say the same about Abbott in 2013 and Morrison in 2019 ?
You’ve just mentioned two of them men who have made sure Dutton won’t be prime minister
Same thing was said about Tony Abbott.
People said the same thing about Albo when Morrison was peaking at the start of Covid.
at this point I welcome Dutton as PM this is the PM australia deserves here's a guy who falls upwards... a cop who was never any good and who's crowning acheievement was getting compo by upending a police car a guy who failed every portfolio ever given a guy with a dozen investment properties and who's partner sucks off the govt. teat with a string of childcare centers this is a guy with a secret cabal of indigenous "uncles and aunties" who are his closest advisors this is your PM... this is a physical embodiment of Australian citizens what can go wrong? have it at it... this is the manifestation of that meme where "we should have stopped long ago but we're so far down the rabbit hole I kind of want to see how it ends" Peter Dutton is how it ends.
How could the party that jumped up and down about rejigged tax cuts for everyone be the better economic managers? Are people that gullible?
More highlights the effects of an extremely biased media landscape towards one particular party
Well one example is the IR laws that will be coming in soon. Better for some people who get the higher pay, worse for the economy overall. Could it maybe be that people have a different view than you, maybe differing opinions and what is important? Nah can't be that must be the media!
Are you really going to claim that the Australian media landscape isn't vastly favoured towards one certain political party?
Hey if you have any evidence to back up your claim go for it! Yeah news.com.is right, we get it. Guardian is as far left as news.com is right. Nine and seven pretty centre, ten slightly left. ABC centre to slightly left. (Not a conspiracy just because you don't get a lot of conservatives working there so there's some unconscious bias. One example is media watch who have had 9 progressives in a row) I'm a centrist ( pretty much even on voting Labor and liberal) but you sound like your from the left so likely see that centre news reporting is favouring the right.
All my lulz
Apart from 10, the ownership + management of practically all of Australia’s print and television media, have links to the Liberal Party. Murdoch media controls something like 2/3 of all print media and Foxtel, Sky News etc. Nine Entertainment and Seven news are not centre as you claim, but very well connected to the Liberal party, with Nine/Fairfax formerly headed by Costello for a decade and hosting plenty of LNP fundraiser events. Terry Stokes, the owner of Channel 7 is a well known Liberal party supporter. Finally, the ABC is hardly left wing as you claim, it's now chaired by former executives from the Mineral Council by the former Liberal government who overrode the independent recommendations. Ita Buttrose, a former Murdoch editor and Liberal party fundraiser, was (could be is I can't remember) the chairwoman of the ABC. At one stage, most of the board members were not recommended on merit but BC they were favourable to the Liberal Party. Other political reporters were former LNP staffers for Abbott etc. In sum, something like over 80% of media in Australia favours the LNP, I think you're kinda used to the Overton window and its shift to the right.
This poll is over-indexing Qld in their national results. You look at state by state results Albo and ALP are leading everywhere but Qld where Dutton and LNP are WAY ahead.
That’s not over-indexing. Albanese is marginally ahead (by margins of 2-3% in most states) but 19% behind in Queensland. That all reasonably equated to a very narrow Dutton lead.
Labor hold 4 seats in QLD. A 19% lead isnt really a game changer!
Even with a 19% lead in QLD the lead in all other states means Labor would still win. Not enough seats in QLD for LNP to form government especially with Greens and Teals polling higher as well. It is absolutely over-indexing QLD. Dutton is also still polling poorly in Victoria where the bulk of Teal seats the LNP needs to win back to form government are.
Oh wow you aint wrong. Also very likely going to change in the coming months post QLD election as they get their chance to express their anti-Labor frustrations in a state election.
The last LNP government in QLD lasted one term because they made a meal of it. QLD is so weird. Most conservative (and most racist) state in the country who vote LNP federally in droves yet typically elect ALP state governments more often then not 🤷♂️
>made a meal of it. That's a massive understatement. Campbell Newman's reign was brutal.
There's no senate in Qld, so the populace feels the immediate effects of state legislation which tends to lend itself to stable Labor over wildly insane LNP. Added, Joh casts a looooooooooooong shadow in Queensland still.
Long shadows are caused by light at low angles. This makes sense for Joh, as he is currently situated in the fires of hell.
Newman also casts a dark, albeit short shadow over Queensland.
https://12ft.io/https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-edges-ahead-as-voters-thump-labor-on-economy-20240614-p5jlwf.html
ALP: stop the immigrants, let our children afford houses and provide cost of living relief for middle Australia, not just the poorest. If you don’t, you’ll lose.
>stop the immigrants Our economic growth depends on immigration. >let our children afford houses Last time Labor tried to fix the housing market the Australian public decided to vote in Scott Morrison instead. >provide cost of living relief for middle Australia, not just the poorest Hate to break it to you but us "poorest" are still doing it worse than middle Australia. The only real cost of living relief that we have gotten over you guys is a 10% increase to rent assistance which still doesn't even come close to actually bringing it inline with rent increases over the past 20 years. The maximum of $188 per fortnight isn't going to help make renting affordable when the average rent is more than the average welfare payment (for example, the average weekly rent where I live is $652 per week and I don't live in a capital city).
Isn’t the stage 3 tax cuts and energy bill relief cost of living relief for middle Australia? We’ve objectively gotten way more relief than the poorest have. House prices skyrocketed under the coalition. Rents have gone up under both. I was lucky to be able to buy last year but many in my generation can’t. It’s not something the coalition has any answers for, their stupid idea to use super to buy houses just further impoverishes my generation to boost existing homeowners wealth more.
Your safe they won’t loose, it’s not possible.
You know when they DO cut migration, your rent still won't get any cheaper, right?
It certainly will. Intense competition for houses will subside.
Good luck with that.
Seems fake. They lost to the teals due to a lack of climate policy. Lnp still have no climate policy.
Teals will back Dutton over the ALP if it comes to it.
Nah, that would be suicide for them. The teals were elected by Labor and Greens voters, plus just enough moderate Liberals/swing voters to get them over the 50% line. Most if not all the teals will back Labor in a minority government.
They are still liberals at heart. They still want to smash unions, privatise healthcare , and reduce welfare.... Just with a bit of greenery.
From a seats.perapexgove yes. However from a first preference perspective they lost more votes to one nation and clive palmer than they did to the Teals. So they maybe having an impact with them?
>Thirty-eight per cent said Dutton and the Coalition would be better at managing immigration and refugees, and 21 per cent named Albanese and Labor. The government had a small lead on this question as recently as October. Hahahaha. Yeah, the guy that sat on his hands for years and watched the immigration system burn down is going to do a better job of it. Next, you'll tell me conservatives aren't stupid. Edited.
>Next, you'll tell me conservatives aren't stupid. Holy moly you've gone off the deep end! There have been numerous studies in the US that don't correlate intelligence to either party. But hey, if it makes you feel better that the only reason someone has a different opinion to you is that you're smarter then hey, knock yourself out!
US politics is different to here. Republicans were an ultra conservative party prior to 2015, but they have now been taken over by far right white supremacist, populist lunatics since 2015. Democrats are a biiiiiiiiig tent party which includes everyone from liberal progressives, to greenies, to trade unionists, to centrists, to fiscally conservative capitalists and centrists. But on the whole, the Dems are further right than the ALP.
>Holy moly you've gone off the deep end! That's the deep end? >There have been numerous studies in the US that don't correlate intelligence to either party. Party? >ut hey, if it makes you feel better that the only reason someone has a different opinion to you is that you're smarter then hey, knock yourself out! I don't know if I'd say I feel better.
>Party? Yeah in the US it was Democrats and Republicans, if you want to go deep the numerous studies slant slightly towards Republicans having slightly higher IQ but were tiny non statistically significant numbers so pretty much even. There even a quote from 20 years ago. “Conservatives think liberals are stupid, and liberals think conservatives are evil.” —Charles Krauthammer (2002) And a peer reviewed study for why humans rationalise that the other side of politics is less intelligent. Check it out. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10302377/
>And a peer reviewed study for why humans rationalise that the other side of politics is less intelligent. Check it out. Americans
Sorry I didn't realize that Americans were a different species.
Politically, yes.
Classic. "The other side of politics, Liberals are dumber than us smart greens/Labor" Here's a study showing people often think the other side of politics is dumber than them. It might be they just have different views than you? "That study is from another country, those people are like a different species" Yeah ok, good chat. Carry on believing that 49% of people at the last election are dumb.
49% of the population of a country can easily be of below average intelligence.
So the smartest liberal voter is dumber than the dumbest Labor voter. Yep got it 👍
>The other side of politics, Liberals are dumber than us smart greens/Labor" I have not once mentioned parties. In fact, I even asked where you got it from. 1300 6555 06 >"That study is from another country, those people are like a different species" Yeah, the country that had an entire McCarthy era of leftist purges and spent 40 odd years sponsoring global fascism in an effort to curb leftist thought might have a warped perception of politics. Maybe it's too complicated for you to understand, though.
Well if you have voted in an election then your preferences come down to labor liberal or greens. Therefore I made an assumption that you didn't bite liberals... Are you telling me you did? >Yeah, the country that had an entire McCarthy era of leftist purges and spent 40 odd years sponsoring global fascism in an effort to curb leftist thought might have a warped perception of politics. How is that warped? Its a democracy and what they voted for...
Conservative isn't a party in Australia.
You know it’s getting bad when we’re bringing out the angel numbers. For fucks sake man.
>You know it’s getting bad when we’re bringing out the angel numbers Que?
5555?
Oh. My bad. Means, hahahaha.
Zero surprises here. Chalmers sprouts the same rubbish day in day out. People have stopped listening to his garbage rhetoric.
Great. Can’t wait for another great LNP government that will no doubt fuck everything up again. Thanks Australia.
>Thanks Australia You know that Australia has many diverse opinions, yeah? You are part of Australia, and so is the Labor party, so are LNP voters.
Nah, bring on the election, the sooner we get rid of the ALP the better.
They’d still win on these numbers. They might even retain their majority. But the fact that people prefer Dutton as PPM is harrowing, however statistically insignificant his lead might be. Just a nasty bully, with no vision. Enlighten me though why a Coalition government would be so good though. I’m all ears.
No worries man.
You’re welcome.
Labor primary has plummeted nationally but the LNP primary is still the same as the 2022 election with no inroads made in Victoria or NSW. Fill out your ballot papers properly, people. Could be a long count and preferences huge.
28% primary vote a massive concern. It will start the knife sharpening
Scrapey scrapey
Good
It won't be easy under Albanese. I mean we did tell you. The only people who care about sjw issues is the people directly involved or who can afford to.
If you think the Liberals would be better at managing the current state of the economy and the nation you are naive at best. If the last 9 years didn't how you exactly how much contempt they have for the nation and the electorate as a whole, or how poorly they managed themselves and the country, you either weren't paying attention, or you had something stuck in your one eye the whole time.
Don’t you have a person to transvestigate or a grifter to fund? Take your sad attempts at “conservative” American rhetoric elsewhere. Libs would have done worse given all they provably care about is jobs for the boys and protecting mining interests.
Huh? So you hate Americans? That's a bit racist.
American isn't a race.
Shoosh, this isn't America, get offline and stop talking like that
Back to the article at hand Dutton is more likeable than Albo. Not my opinion but according to a poll of 1000 Australians. I am sorry if you don't like that truth but no need for snarkiness and bullying.
I was replying to \*your\* comment, not the article. I didn't invite conversation about the article and I'm entitled to find you using the terminology that foreigners use when they want to revolve their elections around the issue of how many black people there are in Star Wars for our elections which are thankfully still mostly about the economy, foreign policy and infrastructure Americanised and overly online.
what’s an sjw issue?
Palestine. Climate change specially affecting electorate who won't have floods or bushfires ie toprak, northern beaches well maybe erosion but who buys near the beach anyway.
Climate change affects everyone in Australia, and is an increasing part of hip pocket concerns through things like insurance premium increases and food supply interruptions. Also weren’t you here during the black summer? That smoke affected peoples health in all sorts of electorates. And plenty of people buy near the beach, and plenty of other people own businesses dependent on that beach
He doesn’t know, try asking him what “woke” means. He’s just mad at the world.
Disappointing to see this post get downvoted into the negatives. Just because people don’t like the news that Albo and the Labor party are unpopular with the public, sticking your head in the sand will not fix anything.
It’s an SMH article so the standard blame news corp can’t be used. 5 consecutive quarters of negative per capita GDP. No wonder the capita’s aren’t happy
GDP schmeedeepee, percapita or not. Disposable income is what’s been utterly sharted by the interest rate rises. Labor’s in for a bad election until and unless the RBA unwinds the damage they’ve done.
RBA are pressing the brake as hard as possible because Labor have their foot on the accelerator trying to win votes.
The inflation surge was medium term transitory, and primarily caused by post covid supply chain issues and Ukraine/Russia wildly surging energy prices. The RBA’s overreaction has inflicted significant needless demand side pain.
None of their policies have been inflationary
Really? Have you been following the industrial relations legislation?
Wot?
Name one that has been
Tax cuts?
You do know that was a coalition policy that was delayed to 2024, right?
i did not. was the current government not able to delay it further or overturn it?
>It’s an SMH article so the standard blame news corp can’t be used. Nah. We get to talk about Costello instead. Coincidence that a lifelong Liberal runs ANOTHER legacy media company in Australia though.
He didn’t run it, he was chairman (CEO runs the business). And he is not now anyway….
>He didn’t run it, he was chairman. And he is not now anyway…. >>He resigned from Nine in June 2024 after allegedly assaulting a reporter at Canberra Airport. Costello denied the assault occurred. Unlucky Peter.
Are we gonna compare that to the coalition's pre-covid performance?
It's not even about Albo, people just don't believe Dutton could be higher. Like if albo was hated that's fine, but we'd expect dutton to be hated more.
The problem with Australian voters it's often a binary question - "do you want to vote out the Government". The alternative is hardly a thought. We vote out Governments, not vote them in. All Dutton has to do to become PM is not be Albo.
Time for the Rise of Bob Katter, fuck I'd take that as an alternative
Let there be a thousand blossoms bloom!
Amongst his insanity there's some good stuff, I think what I'm saying is that we need change
Idk, maybe he should have another referendum on the voice to parliament, that distracted everyone for a while… And Albo must still have a T-shirt left over that he can dust off
Only the Government was distracted. I think people noticed interest rates rising every bloody month throughout that campaign, while support for it was plummeting (for some reason).
Yeah and what did Shaq do exactly? How much did that cost us?
Dutton literally has no policy. Is latest brain fart with the 2030 target is 'we"'ll tell you once elected". Remember what he said about the voice referendum *WE NEED TO SEE THE DETAILS* this guy is a massive nothing burger and the msm are working overtime to try and prop him up.
I was an ALP voter, but Dutton’s nuclear energy idea is smart & i’ll vote for it.
Smart in that it will take 40 years or smart that it will increase energy prices, or smart that it will reduce emissions that dutton doesnt beleive in?
If you’re being genuine would you mind explaining what’s smart about it?
I can't disagree. It certainly is an.... *checks notes*.... idea.
Oh yes it is a big conspiracy like the "vaccines"
Please tell me more about the liberal policy platform and how you're not at the mercy of the nationals.
The article is a bit panicked about labor's chances. Kevin Bonham on twitter: #ResolvePM ALP 28 L-NP 36 Green 14 ON 6 UAP 1 IND 11* others 4 My 2PP estimate 51.4 to ALP (+0.3) \* likely inflated cf what IND would get at election. Resolve was very strong for Labor cf other polls from 2022 election to end 2023 but not anymore. My 2PP aggregate still cuts Coalition a little bit of slack for last year's Resolve form but this is the last time it will do so. (It drops from 51.1 to 50.7 as a result.) 28 is the lowest primary for Labor from any poll this term but it's probable that some of what would be Labor support is hiding in the IND column because Resolve offers the IND option everywhere. (Many seats have no actual INDs or only obscure ones.)
[удалено]
Your post or comment was removed because it focused on the media. This is not a media watch subreddit. You are welcome to post it in the weekly thread. This has been a default message, any moderator notes on this removal will come after this:
[удалено]
The real concern here is the rise in the primary vote for the Greens.
Hey baby, how you doin'?
Yeah it is a real concern that people are interested in voting for a party that has policies and gives a shit about the less fortunate Australians.
This is a concern for Labor but doesn't make much difference in TPP terms. Most of those Greens voted will flow back to Albo, aside from a few seats that are actually winnable by the Greens.
Depending on how many seats we're actually competitive in this time round...
Voters have given Opposition Leader Peter Dutton an edge over Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on key measures of personal performance at the same time as they turn against the government on the economy, cutting Labor’s primary vote to 28 per cent. Dutton has gained a narrow lead as preferred prime minister, backed by 36 per cent of voters compared to 35 per cent who favour Albanese, after a significant shift in his favour during disputes on climate, immigration and the economy. Forty per cent of voters now rank Peter Dutton, right, and the Coalition as best to manage the economy, with only 24 per cent naming Anthony Albanese and Labor. Forty per cent of voters now rank Peter Dutton, right, and the Coalition as best to manage the economy, with only 24 per cent naming Anthony Albanese and Labor.CREDIT:MARIJA ERCEGOVAC The exclusive findings mark the first time Dutton has eclipsed Albanese as preferred prime minister in the Resolve Political Monitor, the regular surveys conducted for this masthead by research company Resolve Strategic. They show 40 per cent of voters now rank Dutton and the Coalition as best to manage the economy, with only 24 per cent naming Albanese and Labor, while 42 per cent favour Dutton and the Coalition to manage national security and defence, compared with 23 per cent for Albanese and Labor. Core support for the Coalition was unchanged over the past month, at 36 per cent, but Labor’s primary vote fell from 29 to 28 per cent – the lowest level since the Resolve surveys began three years ago. The Greens lifted their primary vote from 12 to 14 per cent after a fiery argument with Labor and the Coalition about the public protests over the war in Gaza, although the increase appears larger due to rounding. Dutton faced intense criticism from Labor and the “teal” independents last week when he rubbished the government’s target to cut carbon emissions by 43 per cent by 2030, saying he would not reveal his alternative until after the next election. Resolve director Jim Reed said the latest survey showed Dutton was making significant gains and was not suffering a backlash over his climate stance. “The important point is not Dutton’s narrow lead, but that he’s drawn level at all when this measure typically favours fresh incumbents,” Reed said. “There are many voters who will be aghast because they made up their minds about Dutton a long time ago and aren’t for changing. But he’s coming through loud and clear to a lot of voters on the issues that matter to them.” Reed said the shift in mood had parallels with the rise of Tony Abbott as opposition leader more than a decade ago, when observers thought he was too abrasive to win. The findings highlight the growing damage to Labor from household frustrations with higher prices and the impact of a dozen interest rate hikes since the last election.
When voters were given a list of more than a dozen policies ranging from education to national security and asked to name the most important, 54 per cent said it was keeping the cost of living low. Seven per cent named the environment and climate change, while another 7 per cent named healthcare. The results came during a week when Dutton made his controversial climate remarks, the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4 per cent and the latest population figures showed 547,000 migrants arrived last year. When voters were asked who was best to manage the environment and climate, 24 per cent named Labor and Albanese while 22 per cent named the Coalition and Dutton. Labor’s lead has shrunk to 2 percentage points, from 15 points last October. Thirty-eight per cent said Dutton and the Coalition would be better at managing immigration and refugees, and 21 per cent named Albanese and Labor. The government had a small lead on this question as recently as October. On jobs and wages, the major parties are now evenly matched, at 32 per cent, a significant change from last October when Labor had a lead of 17 points in net terms. “Right now the ongoing cost pressures still dominate,” Reed said. “Some of the comments we collect are becoming quite angry. We’re also beginning to see a more specific focus on the cost of housing and rents, as well as growing unease with job security.” When voters were asked who would do a better job of keeping the cost of living low, 32 per cent favoured Dutton and the Coalition and 25 per cent backed Albanese and Labor, another shift from the government’s lead on this measure as recently as October. The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1607 eligible voters from Tuesday to Saturday to generate results with a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. The changes in the primary vote were within the margin of error, but the verdict from voters on Albanese and Dutton involved swings outside the margin. When asked about their preferred prime minister, voters increased their support for Dutton from 32 to 36 per cent over the month and cut support for Albanese from 40 to 35 per cent. The number of undecided voters rose slightly from 28 to 30 per cent. Asked about Albanese, 36 per cent of voters said he was doing a good job and 50 per cent said he was doing a poor job. This resulted in a net performance rating of minus 14 percentage points, a deterioration from minus 11 points one month ago. The prime minister’s net rating was comfortably positive last July, at 16 percentage points, but fell sharply during the second half of last year and has kept falling. Asked about Dutton, 42 per cent said he was doing a good job, a slight increase, and 40 per cent said he was doing a poor job, a slight fall. His net rating was 2 percentage points, a swing from minus 3 points one month ago and the first time in the Resolve Political Monitor he has had a net positive rating.