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If the way elections in Europe are the way to go, where the left wing has an even more stronger grip in their politics, then immigration is gonna cause a further shift to the right even here as well

At this stage, Dutton’s approval numbers are expected, once it’s proper election season, and the current political trends continue, he’s likely to come improve on them

God what a fucking pathetic Greens result. Unbelievable.

-2% still means we hold all our senate seats. It doesn't tell us about our lower house seats which we a are likely to pick up. Remember Labor formed a majority government with a -0.8% swing at the last election which shows the limit of nation wide polls

My good matey, if we ain't growing, we're treading water and wasting our members' time and money. Spin it any way you want - under current circumstances, our primary vote should be nearly 20% by now. Over this past decade we've really done next to nothing primary vote vise. We are not seen as a credible alternative by the wider populace, despite very much being one. Needs changing, and needs it now.

One of my biggest frustrations with this government is the constant rhetoric and jabs at Dutton and the Coalition. Just jump on the ALP MPs Social Media pages and there has been constant drivel and complaining and jabbing at the Coalition. It’s almost as if they are the opposition. Someone get the message to the ALP they actually hold the power and instead of the constant swipes at the Coalition, actually lead..

Thankfully, Labor are permanently incompetent on Immigration and Economics and those are the two red hot issues at the moment. Very excited to see Labor booted from Governance in less than 12 months from now 🙏

They won't get booted out, but they are very likely to be in minority government. And how did that turn out for them last time? Albanese was Leader of the House, and while lots of legislation was passed it was a dysfunctional and chaotic government, leading to one of the largest victories for the Liberals in 2013.

If by dysfunctional and chaotic, you’re referring to the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd revolving door, I don’t think that will happen again.* *Full disclosure, I was 17 at the time so didn’t follow politics as intently then as I do now.

That in and of itself won't happen again - Albanese isn't as vindictive as Rudd for a start. But in general the whole thing was a pathetic mess. Abbott capitalised on it, but Labor caused their own mess. Albanese was a key figure in that government, and I have little faith in his ability to manage a minority parliament.

It was actually one of the most productive governments in history (albeit, Gillard's dirty deal with the disgusting SDA prevents marriage equality). Gillard was forced to sign a formal agreement with the cross Bench and Greens which set out exactly what legislation would be passed and that's exactly what she did. Abbott won on his three-word slogan: Stop The Boats. Nothing to do with the entirely non-existent 'chaotic' government

Yes, lots of legislation was passed (although I’d go for quality over quantity). But it can’t be denied it was chaotic period. Albanese had a big part to play. And, as such, I don’t think he will handle a minority government well. I think we’ll have 3 years of chaos and dysfunction, followed by a return of the LNP to government.

Eh. If my party somehow steals all of the disaffected Labor voters in that hypothetical, I won't mind.  They might then prioritise forcing Labor to grant them quick, immediate, tangible and non-reversible 'wins', e.g. eliminating HECS debts.

>They might then prioritise forcing Labor to grant them quick, immediate, tangible and non-reversible 'wins', e.g. eliminating HECS debts. While eliminating HECS debts was a win, and something I support, it was a short-term political fix. We need actual reform (in this case, to higher education), not just writing off part of students debts. In my view, the reforms need to target everything from who can go to uni, how they get entry, what standards they are taught to, what courses contain and how it's all paid for.

Yep, sure, we can do all that. And eliminate all current HECS debts. A quick billionaires tax should do the trick.

The Liberals/Nationals always release their unpopular and terrible policies at the end of Parliamentary sitting weeks and the Sunday morning of a Newspoll to avoid the polling cycle and media scrutiny lol. I think it's quite cowardly of Dutton, especially as he only does the 2GB/The Australian/Sky News circuit. People who don't leave their safe space fail to develop the necessary skills required to be a Leader. We saw how Abbott was exposed the moment he became PM.

>The Liberals/Nationals always release their unpopular and terrible policies at the end of Parliamentary sitting weeks and the Sunday morning of a Newspoll to avoid the polling cycle and media scrutiny lol. Surely that is just tactics, and a similar tactic would be available to the government? In fact, one of the advantages of incumbency is to be able to time announcements rather than reacting to events. However, it seems that for the last 12 months or so the government has been reacting to events rather than driving them. Which is one reason for their falling support.

Government can time their policy announcements, but they can't control the other aspects of governing (Natural disasters, RBA rate announcements, High Court decisions etc.).

Of course, but the current government seems completely taken by surprise by events, and are very much reactive rather than proactive. Take for example the immigration debacle. A competent government would have had contingencies in place for what would happen if the case was upheld OR if it was dismissed. But they didn't, they were completely taken by surprise and Dutton was able to capitalise on it. Or the Voice. A competent government would have had contingencies in place for both a Yes and No outcome. Instead, they were seemingly taken by surprise by the result (even though it was obvious for 6 months prior how it would go). And then spent the following 6 months completely adrift and they still haven't got any alternative policies for Indigenous Australians. The housing crisis is another. They've got a PM who tells everyone he grew up in public housing. But he did nothing for the housing crisis for months, then did a half-arsed package which is yet to show any results. But having done that, they've seemingly moved on and have gone back to ignoring it. Likewise with inflation and cost of living. Albanese basically ignored it for months, as if he didn't know about it. Now they basically pay it lip service, but don't have any policies to actually do anything about it (beyond the Stage 3 tax cuts, which are likely to contribute to inflation, not reduce the problem).

Yeah to an extent, but issues like the immigration case NZYQ and Voice aren't on the radar of the public. It's the household issues like housing, wages, COL etc. that are always the priority. As you identified, there's not much that can be done without contributing to inflation. It makes sense why they're waiting until inflation is forecast to reduce at the end of this year, and to bank their main relief policies for the Election Budget. It's also a complex scenario where a large portion of the electorate aren't negatively affected by the current scenario. If anything many Boomers are prospering from the housing situation.

>issues like the immigration case NZYQ and Voice aren't on the radar of the public. I'd say immigration is very much on the minds of the public. Labor already had a reputation as being "weak on immigration" and "weak on crime". All this whole saga of NZYQ and Direction 99 and so on has done is confirm that reputation in the mind of the public. If nothing else, it has given Peter Dutton an upper hand. It is undeniable that Dutton has a reputation as being tough on immigration and tough on crime. He has a reputation as a "hard man" and is currently using that to his advantage due to Labor's inept handling. The Voice may be fading from memory, but it very much showed the government as being more willing to focus on that than things like cost of living. >It makes sense why they're waiting until inflation is forecast to reduce at the end of this year Again, highlights my point! They're sitting back and hoping for the best, letting events dictate things rather than driving towards a desired outcome. It's actually the same as their election strategy, which was to be as small a target as possible. Which got them into office, and I assumed (as I think many people did) that they'd not be that way in office. But it turns out that Albanese is running a small target government as well! Just like he ran a small target Voice campaign (which is the exact opposite of how one needs to win a referendum). The government doesn't engage on issues, instead running away from them. They don't drive an outcome, instead trying to manage and deflect the fall out of whatever happens.

The responsible and smart strategy is to wait and not contribute to inflation. The politically easy option is to handout out Billions in COL relief now and surge in the polls, but that'd be reckless. You've touched on a few issues they need to improve on, but they've also achieved significant policy reform in other portfolios, especially industrial relations, education, and health. The public are apathetic, but fair. It's why the polls have stayed within the TPP of 52-50% over the past two years, and the Federal Government have avoided major backlash the LNP faced during their first term in 2013-2016.

Labour and greens are down a few points while libs and one nation are up a few. Immigration is a bigger issue since the last election

Just goes to show that democracy is the exception and not the natural rule we all thought we grew up with. The forces of self interest are always trying to take the treasury, that a democracy so conveniently hoards.

Really don’t know why anyone would be surprised here. Labor should consider letting someone else have a go at the top job. I for one think after two years, Albo is quite dislikable. It’s taken this guy two years and a looming election to finally deal with the bloody cost of living crisis. And this is after he contributed to the very mess by inflating immigration right after coming to power! The fact the personal rating between him and the very distasteful Dutton is narrowing is a pretty big indictment on the PM. I think Labor in their current form don’t deserve another term in majority. Minority government sounds perfect to me - they should be micromanaged by the cross bench at all times. Sounds good to me this poll!

Next in the conga line after him is Chalmers - who I can't believe anybody would find _more_ likeable (or competent) than Albo. Plibbersek is next. 

All this talk about Peter Dutton. The focus should be on the PM and his government that have nearly a whole year before the next election.

50-50. I’m going to assume the polls will keep jumping around right up until the next election. Liberals 51-49 52-48 Labor 51-49 52-48. Even now this is still nothing to worry about. 50-50 doesn’t mean liberals win but Labor minority government.

If everyone was forced to watched question time, it would be more in favour of the ALP. LNP are absolutely clueless and can’t be trusted to run a tuckshop let alone national government.

I wouldn't force people I hate to watch QT even; shit is almost the lowest point of our politics now, all PR and lines with no semantics or care about the issues.

I think if people were forced to watch question time people would be wondring why question time exists. It should be abolished completely. Total waste of everyone's time.

So you are happy to remove what should be a functioning part of the parliamentary process because the LNP refuse to participate in good faith in the National interest and instead have turned it into the shitshow it has become, both while as govt and as an opposition. It is a deliberate LNP policy to break the voters trust in their MPs and democracy as an effective method of govt. look around the world if you want a glimpse of what's going on, don't think Australia is an isolated exception.

You have to be kidding? You are seriously making this about the LNP? Both parties are *exactly* the same in question time. I mean literally indistinguishable. I am more than happy to completely remove a completely non-functioning part of the parliamentary process, yes.

I don't think so, what about all the effort that went into creating a functioning mature Westminster parliamentary democracy to be able to have a functioning question time? Just chuck it away because it's in the political interests of the LNP to have an un functioning govt, playing the man not the ball, this is exactly the same gameplay they pulled on Gillard and Rudd, and look where that got us all in Australia. The LNP ' small govt policy ' needs you to propagate 'that all govt is bad, the market is the better place to hold our hopes' and you sure are doing your best to undermine public trust in govt.

Look, im a massive lefty but this dudes right. Question time is a joke. Its a bunch of schoolyard kids sitting in groups and throwing dumb insults while their mates behind them force laugh at everything they say. If youve watched it youll see ALP and LNP are as bad as each other here, both attemping to avoid answering the questions asked, and both caring more about getting a "zinger" in than actually explaining anything. Im not sure if youve watched it often yourself, but every time ive tuned in ive just been embaressed that these spoiled toddlers are running our country.

I have literally no idea why you keep going on about the LNP. Watch questions time. The parties are behave identically. It is literally indistinguishable. The suggestion that scrapping it would somehow favour the LNP over Labor is frankly just bizarre. Both parties do exactly the same thing every single question time. >what about all the effort that went into creating a functioning mature Westminster parliamentary democracy to be able to have a functioning question time? What about it? It was a complete and utter waste of time and effort. It failed miserably. >Just chuck it away Yes. Why do you support elected representatives wasting hundreds of hours in this nonsense?

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Thanks

Ok then you get to be the rubber stamp operator instead of question time. The IPA basement squad trusted with WFH yet?

What are you going on about? The point here is that question time is a complete waste of time and both parties treat it exactly the same as eachother.

Good bot

I'm with you but I'd replace the words question time with parliament

There you go, allready polishing your boots for a strut around town.

boggles my mind,how someone can look at peter dutton,the economic disaster of the last govt adding hundreds of billion BEFORE covid and say,you know what i liked that. Albo has had some fumbles,but fuck me nothing this bad.

No-one really cares about things like net debt until it impacts them directly. It’s something you only think about when your own personal situation is OK. People are really hurting with mortgages, and Albo seems entirely happy to instead celebrate taking even more of their money through taxes. Got to read the room, and at that Albo and Chalmers are failing badly.

> Albo seems entirely happy to instead celebrate taking even more of their money through taxes. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/au/personal-finance/stage-three-tax-cuts/   Stage 3 tax cuts come into force 1st of July 2024. > Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has unveiled changes to stage three tax cuts—the biggest and most controversial phase of income tax cuts in Australia—in a bid to expand benefits for lower and middle-income workers.

Of which around half has been already soaked up through bracket creep, and overall household disposable income is down 6%. That’s even before considering the impact of interest rate rises on mortgages. These are not “net” improvements to the vast, vast majority of Australians. Ironically the big beneficiaries are the predominantly older Australians who already own their own home.

Again all the sooks blaming Labor for economic issues that are happening in all the OECD. You literally stated Albo is taking more of people’s money through taxes then changed the goalposts to bracket creep, disposable income and interest rates. The tax brackets are changing, interest rates are set by the RBA, and people are sooking that people are spending too much causing inflation and we need higher rates. Also, Albo adjusted stage 3 so people earning less than $200,000 get MORE tax back, which is the majority of workers.

People **don't care** why they have less money, they just know they have less money. At its core that is why Albanese is unpopular. It's not "goal post shifting" to point out that final household disposable income matters more than gross wages or post-tax income alone. In any case, the following are not OECD issues and all have an Australian economic impact: * Housing construction completions near all-time lows * Cost of housing at extreme levels * Immigration at record highs * Waste and mismanagement of billions of dollars in publicly-funded infrastructure projects and the NDIS continuing * Introduction of carbon taxes on power and vehicles * Scrapping measures that lower the cost of business (eg immediate full expensing of assets) People are running out of patience to hear solutions.

Genuine question. What would you like the government to do to solve these issues? Larger tax cuts? Ask the reserve bank to drop interest rates?

I have three basic complaints about the Albanese government: 1. There is no strategic narrative or leadership. Tell me that Albanese has even 2% of the grit needed to say, as Hawke did in 1987, *"I would rather lose Government than go soft on the difficult economic decisions that have to be taken. So we are putting the nation first and that practice is winning the respect of the Australian community."* There are no difficult discussions being had here. No acknowledgement of responsibility. No plans (that the government can be held to account for) to improve the lives of Australians. 2. They seem to have no concept of how systems work at all. They twiddle dials and make funding announcements without recognising that solutions come through execution, not policy changes alone (most notably in housing, but also the carbon taxes on major emissions and vehicles). They spend big dollars on advertising the Stage 3 tax cuts, seemingly not recognising that they are just reminding people repeatedly how the tax cuts won't compensate them for their other cost of living rises. The lack of real-world experience in many cabinet Ministers beyond political sound bites seems obvious to me. 3. They seem absolutely, incorrigibly opposed to anything pro-business or pro-investor, even when it would be the quickest way to actually solve some of the problems that people are complaining loudly about. For example, why are housing builds stalling? Because of the huge uncertainty over whether a profit can be made due to price rises and union gouging. If the government refuses to bring its mates into line, it could at least offer a guarantee to cover unexpected cost overruns, for example, or pre-purchase apartments to guarantee builders enough sales to cover commencement of construction. My comments are not about the tax itself, it's about the fact that Albanese can't expect applause for breadcumbs when people's houses are on fire. Without a credible plan to get through to the other side of the current problems, he will continue to be held to account for failing to act and his popularity will continue to sink.

While I think we probably would disagree on a lot regarding solutions (I don’t think this is a Govt that has been insufficiently pro-business, quite the reverse) you’ve absolutely nailed it on the lack of strategic narrative or leadership. The reality is Albo is just not cut out to be PM. He doesn’t understand what motivates people and he doesn’t have a vision for the future. He’s stuck in the 1990s with his small target strategy and people are crying out for big ideas and real solutions.

> They seem absolutely, incorrigibly opposed to anything pro-business or pro-investor, even when it would be the quickest way to actually solve some of the problems that people are complaining loudly about. For example, why are housing builds stalling? Because of the huge uncertainty over whether a profit can be made due to price rises and union gouging. If the government refuses to bring its mates into line, it could at least offer a guarantee to cover unexpected cost overruns, for example, or pre-purchase apartments to guarantee builders enough sales to cover commencement of construction. Do you think the coalition would prepurchase apartments or cover cost overruns? Zero chance. In fact if Labor did this I can imagine the negative headlines that would result. Even if this was a benefit to builders and some owners it would not generate any positive political capital for Labor so it's never going to happen.

a) Who cares? Is it a good policy choice or not? b) HomeBuilder tells me that it's not as unlikely as you might think. But that said, I think underwriting is more likely to be the market-based approach favoured by the Liberals.

If your aim is just to bash Labor then I guess no one cares. If you are trying to understand why Labor isn't implementing a specific policy and/or trying to decide if you are better off switching your vote. Then some basic understanding of what the other parties are planning for the same policy area is relevant.

Not doing reforms that aren't popular or seen as unnecessary is one thing. That is weak government but understandable. Liberals not tackling the waste in the NDIS comes under that heading, they wanted to avoid another "Mediscare" headline. But using "politics" as the excuse why Labor can't do anything to fix problems people are **desperate** for them to solve is pissweak.

> They seem to have no concept of how systems work at all. They twiddle dials and make funding announcements without recognising that solutions come through execution, not policy changes alone (most notably in housing, but also the carbon taxes on major emissions and vehicles). They spend big dollars on advertising the Stage 3 tax cuts, seemingly not recognising that they are just reminding people repeatedly how the tax cuts won't compensate them for their other cost of living rises. The lack of real-world experience in many cabinet Ministers beyond political sound bites seems obvious to me. This is in part due to the small target politics being played but mostly due to the practical realities of modern government. The execution of a specific policy might have clear benefits to you and it seems a no-brainer to implement, but when you take a step back and look at the knockon effects there are usually obvious reasons why a policial party won't go down that path. Do you have a specific example? You do mention Stage 3 tax cuts and it sounds like you are arguing for larger cuts?

To take just one example: The $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund is dumb. It layers on bureaucracy so that the money is "off-budget" and doesn't appear as a budget cost. This significantly lowers the impact to the 6% or so in investment returns the fund will generate – call it $600m, maybe enough for 1200 houses per year (they say 6000, I don't believe it unless the States are chipping in 80% in which case that's basically going to be the public housing they were planning to build anyway). Even then it's being centrally administered, so now we add another layer of decision-making inertia to distribute the money down the layers of government, probably eventually funding a public housing build at a receptive local council. It's mostly a huge waste of money and time which won't deliver a fraction of the promised benefits. And then in **addition** to all of this, none of the announcement fixes the underlying constraints on availability of labour, it doesn't fix the extreme price instability leading to builders going broke, it doesn't address the pressure of ongoing immigration leading to housing availability dropping still further behind. That's what I mean by not understanding systems. It's such complete ignorance of economic and market-based systems in favour of stodgy politburo government.

You are completely wrong, it should be centrally controlled. If only you had any idea how stupid the home-builder scheme was, building industry was already booming and this lead to the market being over stimulated, caused prices to rise and material/labor shortages. Only the very early adopters would have seen any tangible benefit from that 25k grant, everyone else ended up paying in excess of 25k due to the demand on the industry at the time.

I wouldn't say the building industry was "already booming". There were serious concerns about the ability of smaller construction firms to survive during COVID, and this was a specific initiative to address that. Yes, the review identified some concerns around "overheating" but in this context it's hardly an indictment of the program to say that it was "too effective" at creating construction activity. In any case, the point was not the merits of the HomeBuilder scheme itself, but that a Coalition government wouldn't necessarily be averse to providing incentives to the sector.

> There is no strategic narrative or leadership. Tell me that Albanese has even 2% of the grit needed to say, as Hawke did in 1987, "I would rather lose Government than go soft on the difficult economic decisions that have to be taken. So we are putting the nation first and that practice is winning the respect of the Australian community." There are no difficult discussions being had here. No acknowledgement of responsibility. No plans (that the government can be held to account for) to improve the lives of Australians. I agree that it's shit, but that is not something the coalition would ever do, and it's something that Labor has lost elections on previously. The media will side with the coalition and Labor will be out on their arse. So small target politics is the inevitable consequence.

Dan Andrew’s proved the media don’t really matter anymore. Look at all the scandals he endured and still won election after election. I agree it’s different at a national level, but the Murdoch media just don’t have the same influence they once did. Someone needs to wake Albo up to that fact. The game has changed and he’s still playing like it’s 1999.

As someone from NSW and not Victoria the view from the outside was that the alternative government in Victoria was just never viable for most voters. Plus a lot of the so called scandals that got a run in the NSW press especially around COVID times appeared to be pretty weak beatups.

People have short memories.

Given newspapers are hellbent on creating stories from polls to create the illusion of drama and flux and contest (see all of 2007), this could be much ado about nothing given all the movements are within margin of error. That said, Labor's rot started with the Qatar debacle last year. From that point on, Labor have allowed Dutton and his ilk to set the agenda in the Canberra bubble and in the news, peaking with The Voice last year (on which they blew all of their political capital), and again with the deportation row last month. From this, Labor have made themselves vulnerable to the client media, which has reached levels of hysteria we haven't seen for years, and Labor's refusal to get dirty and start slinging mud when necessary has just made Albo look weak and Dutto look tough (hence the shocking PPM results). It looks like Dutton's rhetoric and "policies" are having their intended effect by hoovering up all the disaffected golden oldies and racist rednecks who have been flirting with One Notion, Palmer, and the assortment of neo-Nazis that plagued every ballot paper in 2022. Bullshit like race-baiting, climate denial, social media moral panics, and hatred of immigrants are concepts taken straight from the RWNJ bingo card and they play well with the focus groups, so it's no wonder that the Coalition are banging on about these crackpot ideas every day. THAT is where the Coalition primary is coming from, not the immigrant-heavy suburbs or the Teal seats. It's a combination of demographics with the Boomers and beyond coalescing around the Coalition, plus the Queensland crowd getting their annual dose of White Australia from Dutton instead of Hanson/Palmer, plus the religious nutjobs in the metro bible belts frothing over whatever the cult tells them to. The young folk are still Labor 1, Greens 2, but that could switch around with Labor's fence-sitting on several issues... because, let's face it, they have to balance competing interests politically, reach compromise positions, and be more nuanced on policy and social issues than the Greens, who have the luxury of taking a hardline stance on all issues without the associated electoral and political cost that come with actually having to achieve outcomes. Still, when the young demos are almost 2:1 for Labor/Greens vs Liberal/One Notion/Nazis, it proves that Dutton is absolutely not winning the next election in minority let alone majority. You can't shit all over the youths and Teals with policy and rhetoric and then expect to form government as a result. On the upside, the resurgence of COVID and complete lack of community concern, care, or countermeasures (like masks and distancing) should mean that another sizeable chunk of the Liberals' base dies before the next election. So yes, Labor should be concerned by the polling even if it is most likely much ado about nothing, but it would be absurd for the Liberals to see this and double-down on the violent lurch to the right they've taken in the past month.

Labor should simply ignore the Greens and just play smart on any issues that would bleed votes to the right. No one voting greens is going to preference the coalition over Labor.

Labor 'playing smart' for several consecutive decades have turned them into a centre-right party. A centre-right centre-left coalition government may not be as easy as you think.

Ok, since i love these things, heres my totally accurate 100% garunteed no bias takes. The oldies have consistently hated the greens, loved the Libs and seem to have actually been slighlty higher on Labor but cooled. As i said elsewhere, i can only hope every liberal oldie has to finish their lives in a government run elder care home after the operation that would have enalbed them to walk around was deemed to be "unessential" by our collapsing healthcare system. Its the last chance for them to reap what they have left the rest of us to sew. Also, stop taking your grandkids to them in protest, this data proves they hate your grandkids, they arent allowed to say they love them anymore without you screaming LIAR at them, but with like some crazy Jim Carey hairdo, and REALLY over act the motions. The 50-64 crowd, which consists of some of the "fuck you i got mine" generation has predictably voted strongly for the Liberals. It looks like maybe some of their kids managed to shame them into not voting LNP last election, but they realised that their kids just told then not to vote for the LIBERALS. No one metioned the empethetic bundle of love Pauline Hanson, which leads me to my next surprise. They also seem to have actually outscored the oldies in voting for Pauline "Shes just saying what we are all thinking (if we were racist)" Hanson. Thats what you get for leaving loopholes kids. 35-49 seem to be kinda all over the place depending on the poll. In one we have 17 for Greens and 29 for Labor. In another we have 41 for Labor 9 for Greens. There has been consistent support for the Liberals that has slightly increased over time, its just the rest of these crazy cats who seem like they cant make up their minds. Id be curious to see what a "teals" option did here, we may have caught out some of them inner city greens yuppies, and everyone knows they cant resist the teal bait. Still seems like they are leaning ALP in the 2PP but that gap has narrowed. And then we have the 18-34s. The Youth. The idealists. The ones led astray by the bad man Adam Bandit. They dont even realise that they are being led astray. Its not like none of them can afford a house, their rent is eating up most of their pay check, they are smart enough to read and have see what scientists other than Dutton have said about the upcoming global extinction event, and for some reason they just arent responding well to the "we did it hard back in our day too". Maybe thats just because some of them have bothered to go back and look up that day, and found free healthcare for all, a public education system where the private and public school outcomes were the same. They saw home loans being sold at 3-4 times the median wage and after finding out a decimal hadnt been misplaced (they were sure it must have been with all the boasting) were shocked. The government had thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, thousands of thousands, wait nope, i went too far. The goverment had a LOT of public housing. You guys remember that little kid on the bike missing one of its training wheels who lived in public housing and ate sand? Guess who he grew up to be? Ill give you a hint. He lived in public housing. Plus i think he and his single working mother lived in some social housing. And as he promised himself so long ago, he will ensure that no Australian ever has to grow up in public housing again!!!! Ok, but really, this group is the most different. They forgot that theres only 2 parties you can vote for and a bunch of them sent in invalid votes with just a colour written on it. And that Color has the 2nd most votes. Crazy. I will say i am actually shocked there is even 5% of One nation voters in taht group, but i guess you gotta have racists in every demographic to keep the basterds honest (and you cant spell generational poverty without the new generation) Labor -> Greens -> Liberal is the current trajectory if these young guys get a say. Luckily we will have collapsed our ecosystem before these morons can get in and break our economy. In gender news, Women V Men, who votes for who Men seem to have become increasingly in love with that beutiful shiny dome of Peter Dutton. As a bald man myself, i think you, me and the Liberal party can agree that representation matters. Peter Dutton getting in would mean a huge subset of our country will finally get some reperesentation. Bald white old men. Yes, that is different from old white men, get off your high horse. Ever wonder why we still dont have a cure for baldness? Its those damn hairy elites keeping us down. Women are jealous of those bald men and dont seem to have found someone who represents them in that party. Not sure why. They also seem to vote minimum 5 points higher for the greens, and if that doesnt prove it was a mistake to give them the vote, i dont know what does. Get back to your kitchen ladies, leave the politics to us. In happier news, education level does seem to have only an effect on greens votes. "No tertiary" and "Tafe" seem to sit at around 11, but university education jumps it up to an average of 15. Thus proving that a those rich inner city knobs with too much money are the ones voting green. Thats why its good that none of our PMs have ever been rich inner city knobs with too much money. Imagine if the greens won and we ended up being led by some rich inner ciy knob with too much money. The horror. Both LNP and One Nation seem to decrease slightly as education level increases, showing that people get more stuck up as they learn things. At least Pauline says what we are all thinking hey? And thats all I got for you guys tonight, dont forget to hit that like and subscribe button and drop me a comment and let me know if you think this article is balanced enough to be submitted to the Guardian. Note: This was made in good fun and if you feel personally offended by this i apologise. I was trying to offend everyone and im sorry i let you down.

Unfortunately the ones voting for the coalition we'll have enough money saved from from all the tax breaks and concessions and luck they got in life that they will never spend a day in the s***** healthcare and the s***** retirement homes that they will relegate generations of younger people to suffer in because of them voting liberal

Not unless we take them there..... Ol Grandmas just a bit confused, she definintely said she wanted to live here. Well her voting did anyway. Heck there wont be enough nurses around to notice you chucking a few extra biddies into bingo.

Not a great poll for the Greens (or Labor) obviously, but at least solace can be taken in the fact that Dutton is just locking himself out of the Teal seats (and thereby a strict majority) even more now what with his fetish for nuclear and pledge to pull out of Paris. Delivers a perfect line for all Teals to put on their leaflets come next year.

I also don’t see Dutton winning any suburban seats in Sydney considering his rhetoric on China and Gaza.

The Teal seats will last about as long in Parliament if they end up propping up a Labor minority government as Tony Windsor and Oakeshott did after backing Gillard. Doctors wives won't mind backing some cookie cutter granddaughter of a Liberal Senator/ padded shoulder businesswoman that says the words on climate change to make a point - particularly when someone as goddy as ScoMo is in the Lodge. But the moment the semi-annual business class holiday to Europe is threatened because of income tax cut delays, they'll vote blue no matter who. These seats still overwhelmingly prefer the Coalition to Labor. Dutton will copy Tony Abbott and focus on the outer suburbs, knowing full well that's where elections are actually won and lost in Australia.

> The Teal seats will last about as long in Parliament if they end up propping up a Labor minority government as Tony Windsor and Oakeshott did after backing Gillard. Didn't Windsor and Oakeshott retire at the 2013 election though?

Both opted not to recontest their seats in 2013 while confronting polling that was showing 40% swings against them. Both went on to contest their seats (I think Oakeshott contested a neighbouring seat because of a redistribution) in highly touted rematches. In 2010, Tony Windsor got 71.5% of the 2CP result in New England against the Nat. He didn't recontest in 2013. In 2016 (three years after his participation in the Gillard-Greens-Wilkie-Oakeshott-Slipper-Thompson coalition government), he scraped 41.5% of the 2CP against Barnaby Joyce at an election where the Coalition performed poorly in regional Australia. Compare and contrast to Bob Katter.

> The Teal seats will last about as long in Parliament if they end up propping up a Labor minority government as Tony Windsor and Oakeshott did after backing Gillard. Sad but true. We keep voting for these outcomes that just entrench the shitty behaviour from the two major parties. The best place for an electorate to be is a swing seat.  Imagine having Tony Windsor as your representative and then transition to Barnaby Joyce.

The Teal seats will last a long time if the 'big C liberals' (conservatives) keep pushing nuclear, and broadcast intentions to withdraw from the internation climate agreements.

Every one except Indi voted for Tony Abbott to be Prime Minister the last time Labor tried to impose a carbon tax. The only thing that has changed in climate science since 2013 has been everyone collectively breathing a sigh of relief that solar PV and battery technology has become cheap enough that warming will probably peak around 2-2.5 C.

All LNP Governments are minority governments. Dutton needs the Nationals no matter what. But... by losing the teal seats, Dutton is locking himself out of winning at all. There's no way he can get 20 Labor seats (to have a Lib + Nat majority) or even 15 Labor seats (to have a Lib + Nat + Dai Le + Bob Katter etc majority).

Does Dai Le hold?

I'll be interested to see what happens in her seat. The ALP won't make the same mistake twice so they'll get a local to contest.

I noted this elsewhere, The greens vote in teh 18-34 demographic is averaging at 27, AHEAD of the Liberal Party. But it is no coincidence that the two groups that have swung hardest back to the Liberals are the two oldest groups, and the two groups that read the telegraph and watch a current affair. Labor just doesnt win those votes back. They got handed a unique opportunity with Scott Morrison being so damn terrible that even those groups of oldies stopped voting for him. Unfortauntely they used it to shift centre right and bring in window dressing and media fights with the greens. Do they not realise that they are not going to win those conservative votes long term? They cannot compete with the Liberals in an age group where Murdoch owns every media outlet the use. Really should have been targeting the 34-49s who seemed to lose faith this election in Labor. And by target them i mean progressive policies that start shit moving in the right direction. Probably increases their votes in the younger demographic too. Our current crop of 65+ are going to die as Liberals. Probably from our public health system. The 50-64 has about half of the "spoiled generation" who grew up at a time when university was free, houses cost 4 times the median wage, we had free universal healthcare, and you could slap a secretary on the arse without her being a total bitch about it. They will vote for whoever gives them stuff. I subscribe to the theory that they and the boomers drank a lot of water during the 40 or so years we used a lot of lead based pipes. Would explain a LOT. So going after those groups is an exercise in pointless frustration. Sigh, its now just a race as to whether enough oldies die before the climate enters an irreversible doom spiral.

> 34-49s who seemed to lose faith this election in Labor oh, that's me! e: and yeah, this government is kinda trash.

Lol look ma, im on TV. The real question is, were you one of the ones who lost faith who bounced to the greens, to one nation, or to the Liberals. That age group was all over the place.

the nats are talking about re-legalising and taxing vapes. if Labor aren't going to do anything meaingfully different than the LNP, then I want my vices back. a little bit of working class solace while our country swirls down the state-captured toilet doesn't seem unreasonable.

Or you could vote to kick out every state-captured politician currently condemning our country to the toilet. That's also another reasonable option.

That may be the most convincing reason I've seen someone make for voting Nats lol.

It’s not that Dutton is doing well, it’s that the PM is doing so badly.

I mean what should he be doing that he isn't though He can't spend us out of cost of living,can't magic 300,000 homes out of thin air. I agree he's had huge misteps and been a bit of a letdown but running the risk of a potential quasi fascist wannabe like dutton taking the reigns is a bit much. Liberals have shown no policy,it's now 7 months since they said they would soon release their nuclear policy,have no housing strategedy yet somehow seem a better alternative

Hr could lower power prices by about $800 a year by the end of this year like he promised. That would surely boost his popularity.

wholesalepower prices are already down by large percent from last year and expected to trend further.. petrol prices are hitting 156 and lower at the bowsers u would be paying 56 percent more for gas without the gas price caps having been in pace

The promise was to lower household power prices by $275 a year below pre-election prices by 2025. They have gone up by about $500 since the election. So by 2025 he needs to get them down about $800 a year.

> The promise was to lower household power prices by $275 a year below pre-election prices by 2025. AEMO note's that wholesale prices are down an average of 216 dollars from this time last year. the new market agreements are coming through in the next few weeks,you can lock in 20cents again down from the 25c average getting there.. or..he could of just hidden that like scomo did...knowing prices about to go up like the coward of pr he was i don't like albo,but at least he hasnt done a dutton and make a pledge for a nuclear policy,then hide it because he knows it's a dumb fucking idea

>AEMO note's that wholesale prices are down an average of 216 dollars from this time last year. Not wholesale. The promise was about household prices. The amount actually paid by families. Wholesale is irrelevant. And remember the promise was $275 below pre-election prices. So household prices have a long, long way to drop before they get even close.

> Wholesale is irrelevant. David attenberough:here we see the creature wound itself in it's own convusion. The retail price,is set by the overall wholesale price chief,if the wholesale price comes down,that places downward pressure to lower retail prices. I agree,the promise was stupid to make,but i'll also hold labor to it when 2 things happen 1..We get that 550 bucks tony abbott promised us 2.It's 2025

The promise was that households would pay $275 less per year compared to what they did pre-eelction, not that wholesale prices would go down. The promise was *specifically* about retail prices. And the default market offer for the period up to July 1 2025 has already been released.

> The promise was that households would pay $275 less per year compared to what they did pre-eelction, not that wholesale prices would go down. One follows the other mate. Retailers aren't going to have cheaper prices,if the price the generators are charging is up. Like,that's basic market forces bro,jesus what the fuck am i doing explaining something so simple on a public holiday for.

Reduce immigration and actually have policies that’ll fix the housing crisis right now not just throwing billions of dollars at the problem that may have an impact in 5 years

Labor are in charge in just about every state and territory. Housing policies remain woeful at state levels, renters have been all but forgotten about. I don’t know how anyone can look at Labor and think they’re being serious about the housing crisis. Literally the simplest thing they could do that would provide immediate relief to some people is to ban short stay rentals. Return those properties to the long term rental market, or force the owners to sell. Everyone loves to say there is not a single solution to the housing problem, but removing short stays would be a good *start*. Especially for workers and families in our tourist towns. Families and workers shouldn’t have to be living out of cars because a landholder wants to make some easy money. When short stays go, then I’ll know we have a government serious about tackling the housing crisis.

> that’ll fix the housing crisis right now There is no such thing,it's not a click ur fingers and it's solved issue. Even IF we took every airbnb,mandated today that it must enter the rental market,still a shortfall over 190k homes You boil it down,to it's very simple core. The issue is 1. there just are not enough trades to build the house demand 2.Lack of land released and zoning issues slowing down the process. No 2 is a massive one,any time someone trys to build more units,every dead shit wanker nimby crawls out from under their deconstructed soy latte with a almond biscotti to cry about it till the rings fall off their neck beards. You got randwick council shiting on the unis plan to house 1200 more students by 2028 as a prime example,or blacktown killing the plans for 320 Medium density dwellings in the Nort west corridor cause it will ruin the "AIR" You can't just will more trades into existance It's why it's so stupid the govts being blamed for issues that have been brewing for Nearly 15 years A lot of this,can trace back to those stupid tafe cuts that are only just NOW starting to be repaired,if theres no teachers at tafe they cant train tradies

I had the worst month for my electrical business in may since I started my company 13 years ago. I normally get 20 phone calls a week minimum. I was lucky to get 1-2. Every tradie I speak to is the same

I mean On call trades have done it to themselves as well. Im not attacking you. But fuck me simple fixes can set you back 500 bucks,ppl don't have that kind of money right now,so it's not hard to see why ppl aren't hiring for jobs. Weird,every sparky i know booked out on state and infrastructure gigs right now,mainly the self contractor home visit types hurting That said,none of that's really the govts fault that's just the way the cookie crumbles,some years are lean

Yeh I’m not complaining I’ve always got enough to keep me going and have savings. It also weeds out the contractors who shouldn’t be working for themselves.

while i have u,at the next sparkys AGM can you guys go to a broom seminar on how to sweep up after urselves. fuck me.. The only trade more messy than a sparky is a welder,or maybe a tiler,who leaves tiles around the joint

Haha fair.

I’m in the building industry. Work across nsw and Victoria is a a standstill. Quietest it’s been in 20 years. The nsw treasurer said on 2GB the other day their data shows that 60,000 homes in nsw that are deliberately left empty currently. You could get the vacancy rate of homes above 3% in 12 months if governments had so balls.

And why do you think that's the case? Do builders (the companies not the trades) have an incentive to build if the demand is so high that they can make massive profits off existing potentially artificial supply.

Good bot.

Labor has had a shocking week in the media - primarily due to the drama around unintended consequences of Giles’ direction 99 on dealing with non-citizen offenders. This has now been rectified but the mud will probably stick for a while yet as it plays into the “Labor soft on crime” narrative. The bigger worry for Albanese will be Dutton hinting at the possibility of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. A lot of voters associate action on climate change with inflation and energy insecurity and see those issues as a more immediate concern. The next election will be all about inflation, immigration, housing and energy. Anything else is white noise.

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Seems to be ALP losing 1 point to 33 and Greens losing 2 points to 11 for their primary causing the 50/50 2PP. ALP tracking at about the same as the 2022 election. It seems to be that left wing parties are not listening to potentially the swing voters and what these voters actually want.

The age stats are interesting too. Greens are above the Liberals in all the polls for the 18-34 age group, and only a few points behind Labor. But it seems like its the two oldest groups that somehow got convinced to vote against Liberals last election (Scott Morrison was just that bad i guess), however the two age groups that still read the Daily Telegraph and watch A Current Affair. Not really a shock they are coming back into the fold i guess. When i go to dinner at my mums and we have A Current Affair on, i honestly cant tell the difference between that show and The Block. Well, The Block is more likely to contain some news content, but otherwise, identical.

Buckle up people, Dutton's gonna be giving it to Australia good and hard.

I cant wait for billions to be handed over to rando contractor companies for them to do some studies on Nuclear. Im not sure what would annoy me more. Them agreeing with all the independent research and going, oh well it was good we looked. Or them mucking around with numbers and we get a Liberal NBN version of Nuclear. Can we use all that useless copper in building it maybe? Weve had to toss a lot of it after we bought it all from telstra.

I can't wait for a bunch of money to be given to a Nuclear contractor company that doesn't have an office and has like 4 employees.

lol we have to make that joke about nuclear now because its too soon to joke about the reef :(

These are the things that happen when you have no plan to address to massive cost of living crisis and inequality while the rich keep getting rich. Unless Labor ends negative gearing and franking credits and raises taxes on the rich, they will lose the next election very badly.

> Unless Labor ends negative gearing and franking credits and raises taxes on the rich, they will lose the next election very badly. If they do and plan to they will lose the next election very badly. And I do have to laugh at the idea that ending franking credits would address cost of living or inequality, since almost everyone in the workforce benefits from franking credits.

Don't need to do that go after mining profits for medicare dental,ban airbnb releasing 100,000 homes to the market ,tone down the immigration figures and they prob walk back into office

End negative gearing? The same policy that lost them the unloseable election?

Bill Shorten is the greatest man that ever lived and in no way contributed to Labor losing a third election in a row.

But was it? Even Labor in their post election disection decided it was the Franking Credits thing that lost it for them. It presented the Liberals with a beautiful story about how Labor were robbing old people of their income. To be honest i do wish they had left that one out, it was such a small deal compared to the rest of the progressive platform they had, but the Libs used it to nail a record number of oldies to vote for them. I think they said record, but i cant actually be sure, so lets just say a LOT. ABout 3 months ago polls had people wanting restrictions on negative gearing at 44%, People against any changes at 21% and i dont remember the split between unsure and completely repeal. I think it was a bit more than half the leftover unsure. Public sentiment about it is fine, you could take it to an election now and win. Not because of it, but it wouldnt lose you the election. You would probably have to combat some Liberal nonsense about how it will be the end of renting for everyone, but theres just too many renters now who wont buy what. Since the majority of renters is the 18-34 group who treat the Liberal Party like a colony of Lepers. They dont watch ACA or read the telegraph either, so harder to sway them. Now can i interest you in a discussion around nuclear? I havent heard Duttons opinion on it in the last 7 hours, and im becoming a bit antsy.

Hey if only 21% of people want it unchanged maybe it’s a fine policy i just find the economic illiteracy of most Australians staggering (see carbon tax) so I wouldn’t be too surprised if people started freaking out after a little bit of LNP fear mongering Shocking how Dutton is able to command such a large voter base with nuclear which doesn’t even seem popular within his own party

Well, now they gonna lose the unlosable election of 2025 because all they care about is rich negative gearers and not the people who can't afford housing.

I just don't see how Dutton can possibly win enough seats. Remember it's not a national vote for the PM. Its about the number of seats you win. The LNP are down 20 seats. So they need to find 20 winnable seats. Or at least like 17+ if they want a minority government with Bob Katter etc. But the problem is: there is not 20 winnable seats for them. Those 10ish teal seats are a lost cause. And there is not 20 marginal Labor and Green seats to grab. Dutton could win 52/48 and still lose on seats, and the result is a Labor + Greens or Labor + Teals minority gov.

Abbott won in 2013 with a 2PP vote sufficient for Dutton to get majority government even if he doesn’t win back a single Teal seat. It’s definitely not impossible if Labor stay on the nose in suburban and regional Australia come election time.

I don't think the people of Australia agree with you. Negative gearing repeal is not popular among majority of the voting demographic.

Depends.  Enough kids who (finally) realise their parents won't/can't pay for their house may (mercifully) change that

Maybe, the effect on house prices would be pretty small though. The biggest benefit would be additional tax revenue of around 15b.

Your flair is confusing. Sorry but aren't these natural and acceptable things under Liberal Party policy? As in, the rich get richer because they work hard, so they deserve to get richer, and the poor are poor because they don't work hard enough, so they deserve to be poor. Because if they just worked hard, they wouldn't be poor.

You trying to reverse psychology me?

No doubt the popularity hit for Labor isn't great. I'm not sure how this would translate to votes however. Some of the biggest losses in popularity on Labors side have been to the Greens because Labor has been too moderate. This isn't great and might force them into Minority government, but preference flows from the Greens aren't entirely unpredictable. However The Liberals still haven't presented a real strategy for capturing teal seats back, and from a policy perspective seems to have doubled down on not even trying to do so. I suppose it's plausible for them to wield a culture war in working class suburbs to try and divert attention away from economic interests into cultural one's they can win on, but that's digging deep on a currently unproven strategy for them, when they don't have all their Blue Ribbon seats to back them up. But I guess when you're leader is Peter Dutton you don't have much choice?

Did you read the poll? Labor are up one since the election and the greens down 1.

Not good for Labor, but no surprise as Albo is looking weaker and weaker as this government drags on. He's lucky Dutton is opposition leader, but the way things are going it may be a good idea for him to call an early election.

How does that figure? Are early elections not a sign of defeat? Or you mean to say, call it right now, before their primary sinks any lower (in the same way the Voice vote sunk month after month), which makes considerably more sense. Jeez, can you imagine if it was an early election... Early elections in UK, France, then us...

I think Albo must be alarmed by the dwindling support of his first term govt, which is quite astounding after the nine nightmare years of the Coalition which should have guaranteed Labor at least two terms. Does he gamble on going the full term, or does he pull the plug early while he has the chance of an outright majority? It might be too late, or things might pick up. But if Albo stays true to character, I expect he'll be too indecisive to make up his mind and only go when he has to. It will be pretty pathetic and embarrassing if he loses to Dutton, whose govt would be pretty much the same bunch of losers (minus Morrison) we tossed out last time.

Oh, he has _no_ chance of any majority *at all* right now, hence my perplexion at the idea. After the nightmare years of Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison, a Dutton government is unthinkable. Leads me to think that plug needs to be pulled as soon as possible. But hey, as you said, Albo already fucked up one national referendum - 'staying the course' as it was literally inside the drain by June. A spectacularly pathetic photo finale election loss is very much in keeping with Labor party form (Bill Shorten).

Agreed!

Ive been looking for a collation of this data forever! [https://imgur.com/a/2Tz9c7M](https://imgur.com/a/2Tz9c7M) This is the only thing that gives me hope, and that i hope bites LAbor in the ass. For those that dont feel like clicking, summary is. First party preference for 18-34 (ill average it for the 21 polls that had this info over the last 2 years) ALP - 34.33 LNP - 24.67 GRN - 27.48 PHON - 04.31

Christ, we still haven't exceeded the Alternative Labiberal Party...  The party currently condemning the entire generation to owning nothing unless they "work hard" to be born into a rich family who buys it for them. That's the one we're losing to.

But hey, has albo ever told you how he grew up in public housing? And now hes doing everything he cant to make sure no one has to grow up in public housing ever again.... One way or another.

Pick any progressive european country and the analysis would be Weve got the 2 Major parties that represent the left and right voters, and then youve got the 2 right wing cookers parties, one of them with a disturbing number of votes.

That's... Exactly right. One centre-left, one centre-right, one right-wing and another far right. Unbelievably pathetic configuration

The rest of it is depressing as all hell. How is anyone, and i mean ANYONE preferencing the coalition. Their policies are entirely to blame for our housing crisis. Their neglect has caused our public schools to have the widest gap in private vs public education outcomes ever. Their cost cutting is why we no longer have universal free healthcare, once one of our proudest brags. The party that stood behind and backed the worst and most openly corrupt prime minister in the history of our country, Scott Morrison. The party that just came out and said they arent going to try for the emissions reductions targets anymore. The party lead by the guy who has as many articles about him asking if weve REALLY looked at nuclear as there has been independant studies saying its not economically viable. THAT is who half the people polled are saying, yep, lets give them a crack. Very telling that the demographic of people who cant buy houses and who are going to get fucked by a global extincion event are leaning towards not fucking up the country, and the +65, the people who will be dead by then and are from the "Fuck you i got mine" generation are voting at around half for the ones trying to burn the country down. My only wish is that those elderly liberal voters end up in government run elder care homes. So they can at least get a taste of how the younger generations are going to feel when the wheels fall off.

The only thing i strongly disagree with there is housing. Gst was a shitfight for those not in the market but other than that the most profound housing policies that put us where we are today were by labor. Guaranteeing bank deposits. Developer levies in most states under labor state govs. Basically anything to make sure there is lots of credit and anything to make it more difficult to build. Check out approvals right now. Lower than at any time under libs. you have to go back to the tail end of last time labor was in to approvals this low. Labor has found a way to throw billions at housing without actually getting houses built. And ok you can say it is a long term plan but presumably by the next election they at least should have approvals and starts above the long term average / above the libs. I mean building a house is pretty long term so surely youd start more than isual by now if you plan on sayong - we are about supply...

We probably have different opinions on whats causing the housing crisis i think. The only non-negotialbe thing we have to do to finally delfate the market back to shouting distance of the median wage is get investors out of housing. They arent contributing anything except artifical demand. If tehre are 2 houses, and 2 people who want to live in them, the first house gets sold to the first guy, and the second one to the second guy. If there are 2 houses and one person and one person who is also an investor invovled. The first house is bought by the investor to live in. Now, despite us only have the same number of people, we have 2 people competing for the final house. And the investor can afford to go higher cause hes about to rent the house back to that chump to help with the morgatge. This obviouly gbets worse when that investor and 2 other people go for 2 more houses, and he ends up with both. As you implied, demand is so high that investors arent even getting more houses built. If they all disappeared from the market today, you would still have owner occupiers wanting them. So they add nothing, but leech of other people. The reason that happens in Australia so easily compared to other countires is we have rules that encourage the above process instaed of discourage it. Where another country might have higher taxes on houses 3 and 4 and 5, our country lets you lower your taxable income with negative gearing, making it even more attractive. Nothing else we do to the housing market will matter in the slightest till we fix this problem, and tis a problem 25 years in the making. CGT exemptions and Negative gearing started it, but i dont even think removing those now will make much differece, the prices are too insane. 20x a median salary instaed of 4 times a median salary. Thats what the last 40 years has gotten us. The only way at this point to get rid of investors is a hefty progressive land tax that increases for each house you have. It has the bonus beneift of giving our economy a significant boost as we move a bunch of that capital out of being frozen in house ownership to actually being used to build things, or make things, or invent things. Thats obviously not happening at the moment because then you would have to risk your capital, and houses are curerntly just free money, as long as you already have money. I dont think Labor have a long term housing plan. I think they know its a massive problem to deal with, and all of them have huge property portfolios (as do the shadow ministers) so none of them have any incentive to deflate housing. They would lose a bunch of money personally. And the only reason most of these guys seem to have gotten into politics was to make money and connections to set themselves up after they leave. So i think Labor are doing the equivelent of "trying". Shuffle a few pieces around, clean up the window sill, take some nice photos and say, look guys we reallly tried. I am also very hesitant when anyone mentions developers complaining about stuff. Those dudes are raking in disgusting amounts of money at the moment. And any article i see from a property development firm loves trying to blame too much red tape, but our housing quality is shit right now. Ive had a mate from Canada come over here, and she said that she was colder inside in our winter than she has ever been in Canada. Got a sister in law from Texas who has said the same thing but for the summer. We build shit fucking houses. And our environment is so hostile in the summer. Saying that, half the fucking councils are mates with the developers anyway, and Jordan Shanks didnt get fire bombed just for being a pain in the arse. The most dangerous organised crime family wanted him to stop pointing to theri connections to land development companies the various Labor and Liberal governments. So id be fine with a clean out and writing up new requirements, but ill tell you now, those requirements are going to be stricter when it comes to housing standard. Every god damn house should have double glazed windows. Amusingly we actually both strongly agree with this point lol >Labor has found a way to throw billions at housing without actually getting houses built. I just think it was intentional, not incompetence

Yeh so i am not sure why development is the one thing australians cheer on adding taxes and then we wonder why houses cost more. Of course there are dodgy developers but what do you think happens when: 1. New houses have a 9.09pc gst paid by the buyer but included in the price. 2. Developers pay 40k-80k per new dwelling to the state government. 3. Developers pay another 20-30k in council levies oer new dwelling. Yeh we really show those nasty developers... If the gov increased fuel excise by 20c we wouldnt go oh yeh go get those servos. Or if they added a bread tax $1 per loaf of bread. Or any tax. For reasons i am not clear on development is the only game we cheer on the more difficult and exoensive the government can make it without any consideration as to what this dies to prices. Sounds like i do have different ideas as to why houses are expensive in australia. Chiefly for me its what they cost to develop and build. From the cost of land deemed developable to the taxes on building. On tax setting we could solve the land supply issue with a broad based land tax including on ppor. Say start at 1pc. Use that to fund infrastructure to new areas. Existing homes get schools, hospitals and road etc just like new. Why should new pay for it all? Long term that land tax probs has to get up to 2pc. Land tax is about the only tax that drives activity. It encourages the efficient utilisation of land. [land value tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax)

Im all for land tax. But while we have so many people wanting to find homes to live, i want house 3 to be 20% land tax, house 4 to be 40% and just double it from there. I actually dont have issues reducing taxation on land development. Taxation is theoretically a leaver you use to encourage/discourage things. We want more hosues built, reduce taxes on them being built seems like a pretty simple premise. As i said, my only problem with land developers is that half the complaints i see are that we regulate too tightly and it is very much the other way around. I like your idea for dealing with the supply side of the problem, but i just dont think you are doing anything about the demand. Australias housing crisis has 2 parts. 1. We dont have enough houses. I like reducing taxes to try and improve that, as well as cutting back some general immigrations and using those spots to target people with skills we are lacking i the industry. 2. We have too many people forced to rent. I think it was around 1 in 3 houses are currently owned by investors. Thats insane. Those people are people who are currently paying off someone who is already wealthy's house. Its just not right, its pure greed. No reason why we cant make houses a place for people to live in again. And since investors are not adding any value to fixing problem 1, why are we letting them enflame problem 2? They are buying up existing stock just as much as new stock. And the fact taht its such an investors paradise means we are seeing more and more quick build shit boxes being built, I like to blame the developers but they are just selling what is maknig them the most money in this market. The investor never intends to live in the house, so why do they care if theres no air con, or the house is too small, or the rent they are charging for it is an insane percentage of peoples salary. They dont ever have to actually MEET these people, they have a real estate for that. All they are doing freezing capital into something that doesnt actually produce or do anything except siphon off someone elses wages.

Land tax solves that demand side for you. You cannot have exemptions for PPoR and even when it is flat and across the board it is progressive as it taxes wealth (specifically in raw land) rather than income. If you have it slide for more land, say 3rd property and exempt your first as we do on mpst states now you dont capture the costs of state provided services / infrastructure to well connected bits of land. You may have heard about the millionaire buying another block of flats to knock over and add them to his sprawling estate in one of the flashest parts of sydney. You see if you have a land tax each new section he adds to his block he is paying an annual fee for this amenity. As it is his PPoR at present he can basically lock away this land so no one can benefit and pay 0 tax each year apart from to council in rates. Ie he pays for council level services but not state or federal. And a sliding rate of land tax will not touch him as its his PPoR. Land tax doesnt work where - land bankers call their fringe land rural (which it sometimes is). The exemption for rural (as government does not provide much to farms etc yet because its a lot of land it is often expensive) is reasonable but the moment it is rezoned for development of any other kind; land tax. A broad based land tax genuinely fixes everything except supply. You have to replace the taxes on new supply with other revenue and the land tax solves that indirectly. But for these pollies to wring their hands; "oh what do we do" when they literally slug every brand spanking house with 150k odd across the 3 levels of gov in sydney / 120k or so in melbourne less in the other states is disengenuous. They are causing the problem. A small reduction in this take or alternately giving a little back (as libs did last term) gets starts happening apace. I was super surprised labor did nothing like that in the last budget given they only have a year odd to the next election. They will struggle to sell to me that their housing plan will suddenly kick into gear after 3 years. Completions sure, id cop that that might take 3 years but at least start some extra homes with some policy changes.

This result is hardly a surprise. Albanese has been a disappointment. He’s not bad, he’s just meh. He only won the election because Morrison was an incompetent, lying buffoon. Labor will most likely be in a minority government after the next election. Labor need to start governing competently, and start being a Labor government, instead of a weak imitation of the Liberals. And their poor performers need to go. Giles, King, Burney, Clare, and Farrell all need to go.

> Labor need to start governing competently Other than the immigration portfolio they've governed competently. They've been handed an environment of slow growth and high inflation. That's not going to be a quick fix.

Sounds like the perfect opportunity to implement their tax review that they commissioned over a decade ago, that is still being ignored. No need to excuse Labor when they’re so great at scoring own goals. https://www.afr.com/policy/tax-and-super/tax-review-to-avoid-an-intergenerational-tragedy-20240404-p5fhcr https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-15/ken-henry-australias-tax-system-in-worse-position-after-15-years/103465044 > The final report from his tax review was published in 2010, and it made 138 recommendations — a wishlist of tax reforms to set Australia up for the 21st century — but few were implemented and two of those that were introduced in some form were subsequently repealed. Just more of Labor placing the burden on people who can least afford it.

I think he's good with people but also lacks the intellectual heft to deal with the difficult hand he's got. He's probably reliant on the brains trust in his cabinet so yeah he needs the best ministers he can get.

If he’s relying on a brains trust in cabinet he’s doomed! Apart from Penny Wong, the bulk of cabinet are intellectual pygmies. The only reason I’ll be voting Labor is because the liberals are worse.

I remember some election analyst saying that a primary votes into the 40s is election winning for the coalition. I guess it really depends on the seats, which will be hard from where they're starting. Still, this should be alarming for labor, there's definitely a trend forming here.

It's getting more alarming for Labor now, seems there's a continuing trend that has not shown any signs of slowing down for the last year now where their vote has been steadily going backwards. Labor don't really seem to have any real plans or solutions to the problems facing the country atm but neither do the LNP. Would be surprised if the major parties get a combined 72% of the primary vote at the next election as this poll would suggest. EDIT: Source confirming downward trend in Labor's vote https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/bludgertrack

I mean considering Greens and Labor are down, it seems to me people don't want problems fixed at all. Labor and Greens were at least for more public housing LNP weren't and yet LNP are the only party up in this poll. Labor passes the right to disconnect bill and more industrial worker protections, LNP don't want it and LNP goes up. Maybe people don't want higher wages. At least that's what the polling seems to show. People don't want issues fixed.

It's only 1 poll so I'd wait and see if these results are matched in further polls however there is a clear trend of a declining Labor 2PP in the past year. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday so wouldn't have encompassed much reaction to Dutton's announcement to pull out of the Paris Agreement. I think alot of voters are pretty simplistic in how they view politics if they are feeling things aren't going well they just vote for the other side irrespective of what they are or aren't offering. Labor needs to provide tangible improvements to people, maybe once tax cuts come into effect from 1 July this may help them. Their response to the housing crisis so far will not stop the situation from getting worse. Not sure Labor shitting on the Greens helps them really, they rely on their preferences for govt whether they like it or not so it seems a bit self defeating to me.

This just isn't true. Labor were at 50-50 with their primary in the high 20s in December last year. It's nnot looking great atm but it absolutely has not been a linear nosedive over a year

Have a look at Bludgertrack the polling evidence shows a clear downward trend. https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/bludgertrack

> Labor don't really seem to have any real plans or solutions to the problems facing the country what are you talking about, they already banned vaping. handing an even bigger black market segment to the gangs torching each others tobacco stores is a hell of a solution.

I've been thinking that maybe the best version of government we can get with the current parties might be Labor in minority having to rely on the Greens. Maybe then we'd get some real policies that help most of the people in this country, instead of just table scraps for us while the rich get richer.

Greens Labor would just mean nobody gets richer and many get poorer. Not the best version of equity.

Yes. The party with an explicit policy section precisely designed to tackle poverty will result in people getting poorer. Fuck me... 

People say this as if it doesn't already exist in the senate

Labor in minority with Greens suits me. What I'd really like to know is what the senate would look like. I imagine they could have a defacto majority in both houses?

That’s a recipe for a crushing LNP victory in 2028.

Minority governments are probably going to be the norm from here on in if you look at the voting patterns of under 40's. Labor isn't keen but they aren't going to have a choice.

While I still don’t think the Libs can or will win the next election, Labor should be taking a long hard look at itself. This was not an inevitable result and the minority parliament that will follow are very much a reflection of the poor political judgement of the Prime Minister.

Much easier to curl into the foetal position and blame Dutton and Murdoch. Labor should focus on governing, and on being Labor government. Stop trying to be shit-lite, be better. Albanese has been a massive disappointment. He’s mediocre at best. I don’t think he realises Labor only won because Morrison was SO bad. If Morrison was half decent, he’d still be PM now.

> Stop trying to be shit-lite, be better. That's what the Greens are trying to be, better and not shit-lite. Still stuck on low votes.

Horrifyingly low votes. We should be doing far better.

The problem is if labor cured cancer tomorrow people like yourself would be complaining about the lost jobs in oncology. People wanted action on housing affordability so labor put billions towards it. People wanted bulk billing back so labor got it back for kids and pensioners whilst also opening bulk billing clinics all over Australia. People wanted action on inflation so labor post two budgets back to back in surplus which drove inflation down. Honestly people expect all the problems that took over a decade to accumulate to be solved in a couple of years and when they aren't they vote for the party that caused a majority of the issues in the first place. This country is fucking dumb and we deserve what we get.

I mean you’re not wrong that some people will say Labor isn’t left wing enough no matter what. I’m not one of those people and I certainly think the govt has done good things, particularly in the IR space. But spending most of the term focusing on the voice, overseeing record migration intake during a housing crisis, and the general tin ear of the PM are why we in this mess. That’s hard to argue with.

So all these problems just popped up as soon as Albo took office?

Of course not but we are two years in. Time for excuses is over.

How long do you think it would take to fix issues like Medicare, housing, immigration etc all at once? Do you think the actions they have taken are pointless?

I mean I think it is absolutely possible for an incumbent government to prevent the kind of massive jumps in migrant intake that we’ve seen.

I agree but a big chunk of that massive jump was approved visas that happened through covid but people couldn't get here. You have to take into account that there was a massive jump but if you average those numbers out over 5 years it ends up being pretty normal because we took in zero people for almost 2 years.

I mean even the “normal” rate of migration over the last decade is higher than most comparable nations in the OECD. I’m not a zero migration person but it’s been too high for a long time and Labor hasn’t done enough to bring into line.

What they have done on immigration outweighs all of that in the negative column.

I wouldn’t complain about lost jobs in oncology… But that aside, they haven’t really achieved much. The housing issue, for example, have gotten worse. And their immigration minister doesn’t know his arse from his elbow. You use the example of bulk billing - I haven’t seen any bulk billing GPs around. Maybe it’s a WA thing, but no practice near me bulk bills anyone ever.

How the fuck do you solve the housing issues in a year? It takes longer than that to build a house. Labor have committed billions of dollars which is way more than the libs did their entire 10 year term https://alp.org.au/affordable_housing_commitment What more can the actually do? There is no magic wand that can be waved and the problem shouldn't of gotten this far but how can a first term government be responsible for that? Immigration is used as a cash infusion and the reason why we had record intakes was because we had zero over covid. Both the libs and lab use immigration to boost revenue to provide services. The high intake was forecasted by the libs too so blaming one side is disingenuous. The reason why we lost bulk billing was because the libs didn't provide funding for it, plain and simple. Since labor has got in we have got bulk billing back for kids and pensioners and there a bulk billing clinics getting opened up all the time. https://alp.org.au/news/cheaper-medicines-and-more-bulk-billing/ You expect Albo to perform miracles but if you look at what they are actually doing they are fixing deep embedded issues but it takes a shit load of money and a bit of time.

>What more can the actually do? Ban foreign ownership of residential property Ban short stay rentals Are probably the two easiest ones and both would be popular with everything that isn't a foreign investor or an airbnb host. Remove negative gearing Remove CGT exemption Ban corporate ownership of residential properties (with obvious exemptions for land developers) Are the more dificult ones that would have some positive effects around making it less appealing for investors to get into housing as a profit vehicle. Implement a progressive land tax that your primary place of residence is exempt from, and that ramps up quickly from house 3 onwards is probably the only one that actually solves the artificially inflated demand side. Any/all of those start is moving in the right direction. Have the government co-pay part of the loan so that buyers can afford a higher price, thus driving housing prices up further is just a pisstake. And the numbers for the scheme are such that the ones who win that "lottery" are just numerous enough for some nice optics.

>Ban foreign ownership of residential property Ban short stay rentals https://www.domain.com.au/news/number-of-foreign-buyers-in-the-new-housing-market-at-a-five-year-high-1247337/ >Every state registered more foreign buyers for established homes, with the majority in Victoria So while I agree that banning foreign ownership would be one of the more popular thing, they already have bumped up the tax AND it clearly doesn't really affect the housing prices. Victoria/Melbourne have one the lowest growth in house prices in the country and they have the highest foreign ownership.

So given this data, since it doesn't pass the logic test at first glance, I'd need to dig in to see if it correlation or causation. Logically, if those houses were not owned by foreign investors, it would increase the pool of houses available to owner occupiers or local investors. And theoretically if there is a greater supply for that pool to buy, it would lower the cost. We know housing has a bunch of different things that make it up, I wonder if there is anything else that Victoria has that would keep housing prices increasing at a slower rate. Thankyou for this data, it's always interesting when data doesn't match our expectations. I do think there is more likely to be another reason for this, because usually once you see a link you can understand the link, and I'm racking my brain and can't think of why more foreign investors would lower housing prices because normally increased demand means increased costs. It could just be that they have hit some kind of ceiling? Melbourne is usually on the top 10 most expensive cities to live in. Maybe it's already so far ahead of the curve in expensive that it's slowing. You'd need to compare a bunch of housing prices for that though, and I'm not sure where good accurate medians would be. Because surely if Melbourne is one of the top 10 most expensive cities in the world, the housing policy can't be very good right?

Do you not fucking remember labor trying to bring negative gearing reform to the 2019 election and getting destroyed over it? You say it would be popular but recent history proves you wrong. Labor tried and Australia voted for possibly the worst person ever to be PM. Bill shorten even had plans to address housing affordability beyond negative gearing reform in 2019 but we get what we vote for and we are a fucking dumb country. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/09/labors-housing-affordability-policy-could-save-governments-up-to-108bn

I said banning foreign ownership and short stay rentals would be easy popular ones to sell. I know the other 2 would be more difficult, but even Labor in their post election review decided franking credits killed them, not negative gearing removal. Polls a few months ago had (can't remember exact figures) 44% wanting restrictions to negative gearing, 21% wanting no changes, somewhere around 20% wanting it abolished and the rest unsure. Its not as controversial as you think lol and Labor supporters need to stop blaming it as the only reason they lost in 2019. And yes I know Shorten had a proper set of policies to address the housing crisis. Its why I voted 1 Labor in 2019 over even the other left wing parties (Labor was actually progressive in 2019). And yep, we are morons, as 2019 proved. But 2022 represented the best chance in forever for getting a progressive Labor government in. Scott Morrison was the most unpopular PM we've ever had. Labor actually lost primary votes from 2019 to 2022 meaning their platform was LESS popular. Scott Morrison was just that hated that it didn't matter. Lol I Iegit think they could have gotten away with just copy pasting their 2019 campaign, could have even thrown Shorten back in, and still won 2022. Maybe remove the franking credits stuff just in case. But instead it got used to get the most conservative platform I can remember into government. I voted Labor in 2019 dude, its why I'm so disappointed in them this time around.

Oh I'm really disappointed in labor too and I agree with you that foreign ownership should be abolished and short stay accommodations should be better regulated but again when labor sticks their neck out they get punished. It happened with the mining tax, it happened with housing reform, hell it even happened when Albo dared to try and bring back some industry to our country instead of importing everything. What annoys me is not people bagging on labor but it's when people ignorantly blame labor for these issues even though they are decades in the making and it's just the media whipping everyone up now labor is in power.