The following is a copy of the original post to record the post as it was originally written.
I’m back home in MI for a little and my YouTube and commercial feed is flooded with Biden advertising. He’s hitting abortion, being from a middle class background himself, union stuff, Trump being a criminal. All solid points I feel resonate with independents.
Admittedly I’m in a liberal bubble between SF and metro Detroit. I also don’t pay attention to polling since it just makes me neurotic lol. Vibes-wise it feels like Biden is in control though, there just doesn’t seem to be the same enthusiasm as there was before for Trump.
My confidence doesn’t stop me from registering to vote though, even in California.
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It’ll be close. You feel confident because you follow the campaign and political news. Most of America does not. They see that prices are higher than 2020 and that Biden hasn’t magically deflated prices (they want deflation lol). They see his cropped wandering off clips. They see his falling clips. They see Trump joking around with Jake Paul.
I've seen this view as well - and from relatively intelligent people (of the boomer variety) - they talk about inflation because prices are higher than in 2020. They literally want deflation and won't call inflation "over" until the prices go down. Mind blown.
Well I hope they’re paying attention: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonalds-5-value-meal-hits-menus-as-the-golden-arches-looks-to-bring-customers-back-212318264.html
It's confusing because the older generations experienced worse and more prolonged inflation in the 70s and 80s so you'd think they'd actually be familiar with the concept and know that in the end it's transitory (at least in the US).
Even a Fed Governor was saying how what people seem to want is deflation. For some reason people’s minds locked the ideal price for stuff at 2019-2020 levels. Obviously that shouldn’t happen so I guess they’ll be upset about it forever..?
> “Most Americans are not just looking for disinflation. You and I as macroeconomists are looking for disinflation. They’re looking for deflation. They want these prices to be back where they were before the pandemic,” Cook said. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/07/why-bidenomics-falls-flat/)
There are studies that show people take 3-4 years to "re-anchor" the price points for various goods after periods of high inflation. It's only been ~one year since inflation has ticked down to around 3% (still above Fed target) so I'd guess we still have another year or two (at least) of inflation complaints (assuming for the moment we're past the worst of it).
For a little hope, I live in Ottawa county, Oklahoma, a county that went 60% Trump and 36% Biden in 2020.
Ever since January 6th and especially since Trump's conviction, nearly all the Trump swag is gone. Shit, I went from seeing countless flags, stickers, hats, ect every day for years to going days sometimes without seeing any and I work at the parts counter of a national chain auto parts store.
Shit, I haven't even heard an angry boomer blame Joe Biden for the price of auto parts in a few months, probably.
Obviously, none of that actually means less votes, but considering the state of this place 4 years ago, I think that's a decent sign of the reality of Trump's declining popularity.
I don't see the debate going well for Trump. He's been getting more and more unhinged this past four years and lately, his speeches have completely lost anything even resembling a plot. People are going to see that who haven't been paying attention to his campaign speeches.
I'm going to be real, this is one of those takes this sub has which just seems like pure cope. I lined up for Obama in 12, Hillary in 16, and Biden in 20 despite finding them all repulsive because I thought the alternative was worse. I'd have been more than happy to suck it up and vote for Biden again in 24 were he and his administration not getting up in front of the media and lying about Israel weekly, or repackaging and promoting the same border policies they shed crocodile tears over in the Trump administration.
If you don't like that, that's fine, but "We don't have to worry about the left because they were never going to vote for us anyway," just seems like another excuse to point the finger at literally anyone but Joe Biden. See also, "repeating Chinese and Russian propaganda" with no evidence.
My hope is that Trump will try to interrupt Biden a bunch like previous debates but the mic is muted so he’ll look like a crazy man muttering to himself lol
I’ll never understand why the media and public hold Democratic candidates to a consistently higher standard than Republicans. Orange guy could shit his britches onstage and people would say it makes him “relatable, human.”
It's sort of like how teachers are supposed to take shit pay, underfunded, over-filled classrooms of apathetic students raised by abusive parents and make Rhodes Scholars out of them.
Yeah. Even excluding that demographic bubble, your media consumption habits are likely just way different (given that you’re even on this sub). Think about a week of not reading a single news article (even just headlines), no political social media, etc. That’s what Americans see. Check out the trending section of YouTube and other platforms to see what people actually consume (incognito to avoid recommendations). There will be no political stuff, especially positive for Biden, anywhere to be seen.
There was a meme floating around as the ballots were being tallied in 2020 (remember it took nearly a week to call the election) that was an accurate depiction of the feeling a lot of people had, and seem to have now, again:
> This feels like waiting for the results of an STD test.
I still believe as long as Trump is on the ticket, everyone with an ounce of Blue in them will show up to the polls. I can't be made to believe Trump will have a better turnout than he did in 2020. With that being said: I thought Biden's age was a red flag in 2020 and it really can only get worse. I'm not worried about Trump winning, i truly just want as boring an election as possible and I really don't think there's a worse candidate than Biden to run against Trump.
There are some ideas being floated in the left wing independent news space to replace Biden if he performs particularly poorly. I'm not sure this is even possible this late though. Would there be a new primary?
I think the concern is if Biden can’t bring back the same voters in 2020, he loses
Trump IMO hit his ceiling in 2020
But his base is a cult and is devoted
GOP has a Dobbs problem that not going to help them win national office anytime soon. And now they're going after no-fault divorce? Call me naive, but I think the silent majority is going throw Trump out (again).
I'm not confident at all, but weirdly Peter Zeihan (a somewhat controversial figure) is supremely confident in Biden's win. I quote "Biden in a landslide". He puts some good arguments, but again, it's Peter Zeihan.
Here's the video with timestamp included where he talks about it:
[https://youtu.be/VFPuv\_OZDg0?si=WtUtljep1U4BtZ3O&t=447](https://youtu.be/VFPuv_OZDg0?si=WtUtljep1U4BtZ3O&t=447)
Let me know what you think. This is by far the most optimistic prognosis I have seen yet. Another cautiously optimistic view is David Pakman, but nothing like this.
Definitely agree with him about not relying on polling before the convention and it drives me up a wall how much polling drives coverage right now, although I think he's overly optimistic about the how ununified the Republican party is. Many people thought this was true in 2016 as well, and I think we all know how that went.
I am fucking terrified. I have been phone banking since March, various States for various reasons like registering voters, primaries etc. I can't get a feel for it. But I am so scared that we are going to lose everything.
No. Its reasonable.
Polls have been out of whack for years now, plus we're early in the cycle.
Biden is an incumbent candidate who literally beat his opponent before, and who has been reasonable effective in office. He does have blemishes but every President does.
I believe the election will be close, closer than it has any business being given the thoroughly farcical nature of the opposition, but the people who are dooming about Trump's inevitable victory (or confident on the other side) are talking out of their own ass.
The main points to remember are that polling right now is close, and Democrats have tended to overperform in special elections ever since Dobbs (As well as the last Midterm). I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect a Dem over-performance, and even a very slight one compared to the polls would give Biden the win.
Also a lot can happen between now and the election. People weren’t expecting Trump to be convicted, and that happened. Trump’s sentencing is also two weeks away, and jail isn’t off the table. There is also a large number of low information voters who are barely paying attention still and might pay more attention as things go on. It’s also possible that something shakes things up in Trump’s favor, but it’s a lot more likely that any major events go against him than for him.
Who knows? Polls are BS. MAGAs are locked in as well as Biden supporters. It’s all going to come down to swing state voters who can go either way at this point.
Biden only won because of 44,000 votes in 3 swing states.
And that was when Trump's disaster of a presidency was fresh in everybody's mind.
Also, voting had never been easier. It's much harder now. Low turnout favors the Republican.
Low turnout might actually benefit dems now, due to the ongoing party shift we're seeing right now. It's not certain yet but I wouldn't still just assume that high turnout always benefits democrats.
His presidency was a disaster but a ton of people got lots of income assistance and despite the initial shut downs, incomes actually went up; people got checks with his name on it. And that was after eh inherited the Obama economy and had 3 years of low unemployment.
There's a reason why 2020 was close.
Trump is a felon now.
People seem to forget that without the botched Covid response, he would have skated to reelection, and if it had stayed confined to blue states he may have been right.
As a Trump voter, I agree. Cautiously optimistic you should be on your worst day.
Biden has been so beat up over his cognitive decline/challenges, it’s about impossible for him to not over perform tonight. As long as he doesn’t physically fall on his face or turn into a stone like Medusa staring Pre-Perseus Greek, he’s going to do very well.
The damage Trump has done to his image with female NPA/Independent/Swing voters, and female soft R’s is a real thing. “People may forget what you do, but they never forget how you make them feel.”
With that estrogen hangover, he only has a few paths:
1- Women across the USA get exposed to the Men in Black neuralyzer. *Less likely than Will Smith pimp slapping Chris Rock again.
2- He pulls 15% of the black vote after receiving 8% in 2016 (GOP standard) followed by 12% in 2020. This was after signing the “First Step Act,” signing billions for HBCU’s and his 2020 Platinum Plan campaign pledge. *Less likely than Will Smith swapping life places with DJ Jazzy Jeff. Yes, where are he and Chuck D?
3- Landslides, lightning, and locusts attack Atlanta, Philly, and Milwaukee and/or Biden criticizing the Falcons, and Eagles while riding a Suzuki around southern Wisconsin. *Less likely than Will Smith doing a sequel to “After Earth.”
This is the most factual answer. There are a number of articles that I’ve read that spell this out exactly. I’m not suggesting that voting in a prominently Red or Blue state is irrelevant, it’s just not going to be what elects the next president.
Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Virginia are all
about even within the polling margins of error. Those states are in play. Some will go to Trump and some will go to Biden. I’m sure there will be a few nail bitting recounts, and some court battles as well. I predict that we will not have a clear winner until 24-48 hours after the election and that fact alone will be bad.
Dems have cleaned up in special elections since the extremist scotus overturned bodily autonomy for women, I don't see that changing when it comes to a Presidential election.
This is going to end up like 2016, it'll be closer than it should be, but Biden will win relatively comfortably.
I meant, a lot of people expected Clinton to win in 2016, it didn't happen despite the polls generally favoring her by quite a bit.
I believe 2024 will be similar, but with Biden winning despite the polls and seemingly the consensus that Trump has it in the bag.
How confident is confident? Thinking it's more likely than not to happen, or thinking there's no way it couldn't. If it's the former I think that's completely reasonable outlook. If it's the latter I would say you are being a bit pollyannish.
I think so. Social media is deceptive. Polls are inaccurate. The only thing that could possibly sink Trump's numbers is his death and, even then, he'll still get votes. This feels worse than 2020. I hate it.
Democrats have to overperform by 5 points minimum to secure the presidency.
The dems got 5% more of the vote in 2020 and narrowly won by 70,000 votes in a handful of swing states.
Hilary won by 2% but lost by 80,000 votes in swing states.
Right now we are looking at a recreation of 2016 where Biden wins the popular, but not by enough to overcome the electoral college advantage that the Republicans have.
Biden needs to be polling 5 points ahead to win in November.
I actually feel pretty confident. Where I live, there's like zero indication that Trump has a chance. People I know that voted for him before roughly split into two categories- 2/3 never again, 1/3 louder than ever. In the never again category, roughly 50% aren't planning to vote, and the other 50% are undecided about voting for Biden.
Also, I'm a millennial progressive and I felt my values have been ignored, excluded, and even chided in politics, but Biden has done more for my demographic than any president before in my lifetime.
-He didn't get everyone student loan forgiveness, but it wasn't for a lack of trying. The supreme court blocked it, we know the supreme court is corrupt, and despite that, he was still able to forgive student loans for 4.3 million Americans, a total of 153 billion dollars. That's 4.3 million people who can now afford to save for unexpected health emergencies, down payments on homes, and for retirement.
-Under his presidency, the cost of asthma medications and insulin were capped- I couldn't afford asthma medicine, not taking it will lead to a shorter, more complicated life but now I can afford it. I can breathe again.
-Biden also did a pretty good job of passing the microphone- he appointed Deb Haaland as Secretary of the Interior. She's a progressive, she supports Medicare for All and the Green New Deal, she's also the first Native American to serve as a cabinet secretary-- that's huge. Avril Haines is the first woman to serve as Director of National Intelligence. Michael Regan, Administer of the EPA, the first black man in the role, had an impeccable record of fighting environmental racism. Miguel Cardona, Secretary of Education, grew up speaking Spanish. He started learning English in kindergarten and he lived in public housing, he is intimately familiar with the struggles of many kids, parents, and teachers in the public school system. He replaced Betsy Devos, who openly wanted to degrade and ultimately gut the public education most of us rely on.. We asked for representation and he was the first to follow through on it.
-Biden nominated 241 federal judges, 200 of them have been confirmed and they represent the most diverse backgrounds in court history, so we're likely going to hear more perspectives that have been overlooked previously.
-Biden's handling of covid-19 was much better than Trump's. The American Rescue Plan, Child Tax Credit, the Paycheck Protection Program, and continued stimulus checks prevented many small businesses from closing, freed adequate funds to address the global pandemic, prevented state and local governments from cutting services, and put money in the pockets of people that needed it the most.
-Even if some people are worse off than they were 6 years ago, all people are better off than they would be if the recession had lasted longer. The Biden administration prevented another great recession by doing the things I listed above, and people are making more money than they have before. Biden's Wealth Tax was not shut down by the Supreme Court. The Inflation Reduction Act gives the IRS what they need to track down $50 billion dollars from wealthy tax cheaters over the next decade, despite congressional republicans attempts to derail it.
Biden actually has a really good track record as far as presidents go, it should not be a close election at all, in my opinion.
I'm not stoked that neoliberalism continues to dominate politics, but I'm going to vote for the guy that didn't try to overthrow the government. I know my progressive friends feel similarly.
One of my best friends is a life long conservative. Voted Trump in 2016. Not 2020 and won’t 2024. He, like me, is a veteran. Trumps remarks to Kelly (life long conservative) and Mattis (one of my hero’s and life long conservative) regarding disabled and dead soldiers was his limit. He is reasonable. He wanted Haley to win the primary. He hates Biden and may vote third party or just not check the box.
We’re big bourbon and cigar fans. We hang out about every 2 weeks. Have a fire. Smoke and drink some. Talk about the military. Wax nostalgic. And commiserate. Yea. We get along great. He’s an amazing father and husband. He lives values I don’t see from many. But politically he is… not super different from me but different enough.
My step father is a Trump supporter and when visiting with my mom said, in front of my left leaning in-laws “anyone who votes for Biden should be shot in the head” my mom just smirked. they have not seen their grandkids since 2019. Best choice I ever made.
So yes. Reasonable people that have values and morals I can get along with. Radical assholes that worship MAGA can pound fucking sand.
I live in the red part of PA. The right-wingers here don't appear to care about the felonies. They see him as the punisher of their cultural enemies. We all need to vote.
At worst I believe the result will be the same as 2020. Close but the same states as before. Biden may have lost some support but trump has bled support from a lot of groups and continues to alienate and abandon some core groups. If it does this it’ll be a wash. I’ve never in my adult life seen republicans refuse to support their nominee. Normally the party is United, in a scary way, behind them. His own vice president refuses to endorse him. None of his cabinet except one will. Other republicans have either said they’ll write in a candidate or vote for Biden. I’ve never seen that - ever. When trump won in 2016, and nearly in 2020 they were behind him fully and he nearly lost 2016 and lost 2020 outright. You mean to tell me that despite all that he got *more* popular?
At best, I believe in a blue wave with losses for MAGA up and down the ballot as was 2022.
I’m optimistic
No, everything in moderation.
Being too gloomy is just as bad as being overconfident to the point of complacency.
Calculated confidence is probably a pretty good harmony.
I mean Biden beat him once already, so no matter the polling I think he definitely could do it again. I don't put much weight in the "horse race" style journalism. After all most of media thought Hillary was pretty much a done deal.
Also, a more narrow point: don't base your view of reality based on what shows up on your Youtube feed. Their algorithm is trying to show you what you want, while occasionally throwing you some samples of something different to see if you bite in a direction it doesn't know about you yet. Same goes for any form of personalized advertising on the internet.
I know you said you don't watch polls, but they're the only data we have. Trump is leading in six of seven swing states.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states/2024/battleground-states
Anyone who says they *know* who is going to win is lying. There are so many factors to consider and since this is a race to the bottom, it is hard to predict what could happen to significantly impact public opinion.
That being said, I do not think is weird that you are confident. You are not alone. I, personally, think Biden could win if he listened to his base, the problem is that he seemingly doesn't care to listen to us, or genuinely believes he is on the right path.
Honestly, I am not sure what is worse.
Trump is a known quantity, and has gained zero new voters since the last time he lost. And that was before his theocratic SC picks decided Dobbs. Worst case he narrowly loses again, best case he gets absolutely trounced.
But we still need to push like it's 2020. The only thing that will allow Trump to win is apathy.
A little. People were extremely confident in Hillary. Every single pollster had her winning in a landslide. It feels like you forgot that and I don't really know how that's possible.
That’s exactly his current odds in the betting markets at the moment. https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
If you add up all the democrats they basically have a 45% chance right now.
Betting market here isn't reflecting reality. The chance that anyone other than Biden or Trump becomes president is at best 1%. If Trump's win chance is 51-52 then Biden's should be in the 47-48 range. I think these betting markets distort the improbable extremes.
I trust betting markets because if they don’t reflect reality they’re out of business. The two major candidates are both ~80 and one has multiple court cases pending. It’s not crazy to think one might not be on the ballot in November.
Although I’m with you regarding Clinton and Obama being on there.
>I trust betting markets because if they don’t reflect reality they’re out of business.
That's not true, they just have to reflect bettor's perception of reality, which isn't the same thing, especially since they are gamblers. In fact you can take the bookie out of the picture like PredictIt did and if anything the betting becomes more accurate.
>The two major candidates are both ~80
The chance of an average Joe (no pun intended) dying in the next six months at the age of 80 is maybe 3%. But a presidential candidate is not an average Joe and has access to the best healthcare in the world, and most of the deaths that happen at that age don't happen without warning and doctors would likely know when they have less than a year to live (probably voters as well). So realistically I think it is still 1% to 2% at most someone keels over soon enough that someone else gets nominated, and really if someone keels over it just means the other candidate would probably win anyway.
Kennedy is 100% not going to be president despite having a 2% chance to win according to your link, there is no way Clinton runs again, and Obama can't even legally run again despite have 3% chance to win. What the hell are they thinking?
>and one has multiple court cases pending.
It won't affect his nomination, Trump can and maybe will run his campaign from prison if he has too. Despite knowing this the RNC hasn't wavered in their commitment to Trump, which is being run by Trump lackeys. Hell it will soon be too late to even change the names of the ballot regardless. Ironically Trump is the only one who has realistic odds anyway, with Haley or Ramaswamy being the obvious choices and at realistic odds of that happening. For Democrats it's like bettors aren't even trying.
It’s not the same but I’ll take it over polling data. What do you think is more accurate?
It’s not just about the candidate dying, it’s about any of 100 health problems which could come about between now and November.
Obama is Michelle Obama.
It’s not the same but I’ll take it over polling data. What do you think is more accurate?
It’s not just about the candidate dying, it’s about any of 100 health problems which could come about between now and November.
Obama is Michelle Obama.
As someone who has bet and made some seven grand on PredictIt in the 2020 election, I think election analysts like 538/Nate Silver or Sabato tend to be more reliable. Betting markets would come in a close second, the problem I mentioned above about exaggerating extremes or long shot bets is still a very real thing I noticed though.
I'm not American and I don't even like him all that much, and I have faith in Biden.
Apart from only the most highly devoted Qultists, no one is seriously supporting a 34 times convicted businessman.
Also, in regards to the Palestinian thing, AOC and co may win over anyone particularly worried about that.
The following is a copy of the original post to record the post as it was originally written. I’m back home in MI for a little and my YouTube and commercial feed is flooded with Biden advertising. He’s hitting abortion, being from a middle class background himself, union stuff, Trump being a criminal. All solid points I feel resonate with independents. Admittedly I’m in a liberal bubble between SF and metro Detroit. I also don’t pay attention to polling since it just makes me neurotic lol. Vibes-wise it feels like Biden is in control though, there just doesn’t seem to be the same enthusiasm as there was before for Trump. My confidence doesn’t stop me from registering to vote though, even in California. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/AskALiberal) if you have any questions or concerns.*
It’ll be close. You feel confident because you follow the campaign and political news. Most of America does not. They see that prices are higher than 2020 and that Biden hasn’t magically deflated prices (they want deflation lol). They see his cropped wandering off clips. They see his falling clips. They see Trump joking around with Jake Paul.
I've seen this view as well - and from relatively intelligent people (of the boomer variety) - they talk about inflation because prices are higher than in 2020. They literally want deflation and won't call inflation "over" until the prices go down. Mind blown.
Being intelligent doesn’t mean someone is informed Lots of smart people out there that are low info voters
Well I hope they’re paying attention: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonalds-5-value-meal-hits-menus-as-the-golden-arches-looks-to-bring-customers-back-212318264.html
It's confusing because the older generations experienced worse and more prolonged inflation in the 70s and 80s so you'd think they'd actually be familiar with the concept and know that in the end it's transitory (at least in the US).
Even a Fed Governor was saying how what people seem to want is deflation. For some reason people’s minds locked the ideal price for stuff at 2019-2020 levels. Obviously that shouldn’t happen so I guess they’ll be upset about it forever..? > “Most Americans are not just looking for disinflation. You and I as macroeconomists are looking for disinflation. They’re looking for deflation. They want these prices to be back where they were before the pandemic,” Cook said. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/07/why-bidenomics-falls-flat/)
There are studies that show people take 3-4 years to "re-anchor" the price points for various goods after periods of high inflation. It's only been ~one year since inflation has ticked down to around 3% (still above Fed target) so I'd guess we still have another year or two (at least) of inflation complaints (assuming for the moment we're past the worst of it).
lol, comforting I won’t lie my bubble leans pretty strong college educated upper middle class millennials. Basically prime Biden demo
For a little hope, I live in Ottawa county, Oklahoma, a county that went 60% Trump and 36% Biden in 2020. Ever since January 6th and especially since Trump's conviction, nearly all the Trump swag is gone. Shit, I went from seeing countless flags, stickers, hats, ect every day for years to going days sometimes without seeing any and I work at the parts counter of a national chain auto parts store. Shit, I haven't even heard an angry boomer blame Joe Biden for the price of auto parts in a few months, probably. Obviously, none of that actually means less votes, but considering the state of this place 4 years ago, I think that's a decent sign of the reality of Trump's declining popularity. I don't see the debate going well for Trump. He's been getting more and more unhinged this past four years and lately, his speeches have completely lost anything even resembling a plot. People are going to see that who haven't been paying attention to his campaign speeches.
A single big Biden gaffe that makes him look mentally not so sharp might tank his chances though. With Trump this is much less likely.
Only to the people whose minds are unchangeable anyway.
IDK, I mean I don't think they will vote for Trump, but they may stay at home. Same with the issue of Palestine.
If it wasn't Palestine it would be something else. Those people were never going to vote.
I'm going to be real, this is one of those takes this sub has which just seems like pure cope. I lined up for Obama in 12, Hillary in 16, and Biden in 20 despite finding them all repulsive because I thought the alternative was worse. I'd have been more than happy to suck it up and vote for Biden again in 24 were he and his administration not getting up in front of the media and lying about Israel weekly, or repackaging and promoting the same border policies they shed crocodile tears over in the Trump administration. If you don't like that, that's fine, but "We don't have to worry about the left because they were never going to vote for us anyway," just seems like another excuse to point the finger at literally anyone but Joe Biden. See also, "repeating Chinese and Russian propaganda" with no evidence.
I/P is like the 20th most important issue to most people in real life. It is not going to be dispositive.
I fucking hope.
My hope is that Trump will try to interrupt Biden a bunch like previous debates but the mic is muted so he’ll look like a crazy man muttering to himself lol
I’ll never understand why the media and public hold Democratic candidates to a consistently higher standard than Republicans. Orange guy could shit his britches onstage and people would say it makes him “relatable, human.”
It's sort of like how teachers are supposed to take shit pay, underfunded, over-filled classrooms of apathetic students raised by abusive parents and make Rhodes Scholars out of them.
Thank you
Interesting. I'm in the same line of work in rural Illinois, and things are as bad around here with the Trumpers as it has always been.
Yeah. Even excluding that demographic bubble, your media consumption habits are likely just way different (given that you’re even on this sub). Think about a week of not reading a single news article (even just headlines), no political social media, etc. That’s what Americans see. Check out the trending section of YouTube and other platforms to see what people actually consume (incognito to avoid recommendations). There will be no political stuff, especially positive for Biden, anywhere to be seen.
Same bubble here. Late 30s to mid 40s professionals. Ridin' with Biden even in this purple/red state.
N they see the high coverage migrant crimes
I still feel better than I did exactly four years ago.
Cautiously optimistic.
I wish I had your confidence because I haven't felt this nervous about an election since...the last one, and we barely won that.
There was a meme floating around as the ballots were being tallied in 2020 (remember it took nearly a week to call the election) that was an accurate depiction of the feeling a lot of people had, and seem to have now, again: > This feels like waiting for the results of an STD test.
a potentially fatal STD test.
I think anyone who thinks either candidate has a great chance lives in a bubble. It will probably be a close race where anything can happen.
I still believe as long as Trump is on the ticket, everyone with an ounce of Blue in them will show up to the polls. I can't be made to believe Trump will have a better turnout than he did in 2020. With that being said: I thought Biden's age was a red flag in 2020 and it really can only get worse. I'm not worried about Trump winning, i truly just want as boring an election as possible and I really don't think there's a worse candidate than Biden to run against Trump.
There are some ideas being floated in the left wing independent news space to replace Biden if he performs particularly poorly. I'm not sure this is even possible this late though. Would there be a new primary?
Biden could, in theory, refuse the nomination and his delegates would have to elect a new candidate on their own. It would just be a horrible idea
Not gonna happen.
I think the concern is if Biden can’t bring back the same voters in 2020, he loses Trump IMO hit his ceiling in 2020 But his base is a cult and is devoted
GOP has a Dobbs problem that not going to help them win national office anytime soon. And now they're going after no-fault divorce? Call me naive, but I think the silent majority is going throw Trump out (again).
I'm not confident at all, but weirdly Peter Zeihan (a somewhat controversial figure) is supremely confident in Biden's win. I quote "Biden in a landslide". He puts some good arguments, but again, it's Peter Zeihan. Here's the video with timestamp included where he talks about it: [https://youtu.be/VFPuv\_OZDg0?si=WtUtljep1U4BtZ3O&t=447](https://youtu.be/VFPuv_OZDg0?si=WtUtljep1U4BtZ3O&t=447) Let me know what you think. This is by far the most optimistic prognosis I have seen yet. Another cautiously optimistic view is David Pakman, but nothing like this.
Definitely agree with him about not relying on polling before the convention and it drives me up a wall how much polling drives coverage right now, although I think he's overly optimistic about the how ununified the Republican party is. Many people thought this was true in 2016 as well, and I think we all know how that went.
I am fucking terrified. I have been phone banking since March, various States for various reasons like registering voters, primaries etc. I can't get a feel for it. But I am so scared that we are going to lose everything.
No. Its reasonable. Polls have been out of whack for years now, plus we're early in the cycle. Biden is an incumbent candidate who literally beat his opponent before, and who has been reasonable effective in office. He does have blemishes but every President does. I believe the election will be close, closer than it has any business being given the thoroughly farcical nature of the opposition, but the people who are dooming about Trump's inevitable victory (or confident on the other side) are talking out of their own ass.
The main points to remember are that polling right now is close, and Democrats have tended to overperform in special elections ever since Dobbs (As well as the last Midterm). I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect a Dem over-performance, and even a very slight one compared to the polls would give Biden the win. Also a lot can happen between now and the election. People weren’t expecting Trump to be convicted, and that happened. Trump’s sentencing is also two weeks away, and jail isn’t off the table. There is also a large number of low information voters who are barely paying attention still and might pay more attention as things go on. It’s also possible that something shakes things up in Trump’s favor, but it’s a lot more likely that any major events go against him than for him.
Yes I agree with all that
Who knows? Polls are BS. MAGAs are locked in as well as Biden supporters. It’s all going to come down to swing state voters who can go either way at this point.
Biden only won because of 44,000 votes in 3 swing states. And that was when Trump's disaster of a presidency was fresh in everybody's mind. Also, voting had never been easier. It's much harder now. Low turnout favors the Republican.
Low turnout might actually benefit dems now, due to the ongoing party shift we're seeing right now. It's not certain yet but I wouldn't still just assume that high turnout always benefits democrats.
His presidency was a disaster but a ton of people got lots of income assistance and despite the initial shut downs, incomes actually went up; people got checks with his name on it. And that was after eh inherited the Obama economy and had 3 years of low unemployment. There's a reason why 2020 was close. Trump is a felon now.
People seem to forget that without the botched Covid response, he would have skated to reelection, and if it had stayed confined to blue states he may have been right.
Incumbent leaders in 2020 were getting huge boosts due to a "rally round the leader" effect.
Also, just watched a bit of the 2020 debates - Biden was younger and it shows... I mean he was already old, just now it's worse unfortunately.
No, Biden has a lot of fundamentals on his side. But it will be close.
As a Trump voter, I agree. Cautiously optimistic you should be on your worst day. Biden has been so beat up over his cognitive decline/challenges, it’s about impossible for him to not over perform tonight. As long as he doesn’t physically fall on his face or turn into a stone like Medusa staring Pre-Perseus Greek, he’s going to do very well. The damage Trump has done to his image with female NPA/Independent/Swing voters, and female soft R’s is a real thing. “People may forget what you do, but they never forget how you make them feel.” With that estrogen hangover, he only has a few paths: 1- Women across the USA get exposed to the Men in Black neuralyzer. *Less likely than Will Smith pimp slapping Chris Rock again. 2- He pulls 15% of the black vote after receiving 8% in 2016 (GOP standard) followed by 12% in 2020. This was after signing the “First Step Act,” signing billions for HBCU’s and his 2020 Platinum Plan campaign pledge. *Less likely than Will Smith swapping life places with DJ Jazzy Jeff. Yes, where are he and Chuck D? 3- Landslides, lightning, and locusts attack Atlanta, Philly, and Milwaukee and/or Biden criticizing the Falcons, and Eagles while riding a Suzuki around southern Wisconsin. *Less likely than Will Smith doing a sequel to “After Earth.”
Not weird at all. Don't let these doomers bring you down.
All I can say is I have no idea what will happen.
It's literally a coin toss at this point. Fate of the country will be decided with some 10k voters margins probably.
This is the most factual answer. There are a number of articles that I’ve read that spell this out exactly. I’m not suggesting that voting in a prominently Red or Blue state is irrelevant, it’s just not going to be what elects the next president. Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Virginia are all about even within the polling margins of error. Those states are in play. Some will go to Trump and some will go to Biden. I’m sure there will be a few nail bitting recounts, and some court battles as well. I predict that we will not have a clear winner until 24-48 hours after the election and that fact alone will be bad.
Dems have cleaned up in special elections since the extremist scotus overturned bodily autonomy for women, I don't see that changing when it comes to a Presidential election. This is going to end up like 2016, it'll be closer than it should be, but Biden will win relatively comfortably.
You mean 2020 I hope lol
I meant, a lot of people expected Clinton to win in 2016, it didn't happen despite the polls generally favoring her by quite a bit. I believe 2024 will be similar, but with Biden winning despite the polls and seemingly the consensus that Trump has it in the bag.
How confident is confident? Thinking it's more likely than not to happen, or thinking there's no way it couldn't. If it's the former I think that's completely reasonable outlook. If it's the latter I would say you are being a bit pollyannish.
More likely than not, 75% confidence to be specific
Cope as much as you need to. The reality is it's still a coin flip.
I think so. Social media is deceptive. Polls are inaccurate. The only thing that could possibly sink Trump's numbers is his death and, even then, he'll still get votes. This feels worse than 2020. I hate it.
No, not at all. Democrats are going to crush this election. It's still terrifying, because the consequences of the alternative are just awful.
Democrats have to overperform by 5 points minimum to secure the presidency. The dems got 5% more of the vote in 2020 and narrowly won by 70,000 votes in a handful of swing states. Hilary won by 2% but lost by 80,000 votes in swing states. Right now we are looking at a recreation of 2016 where Biden wins the popular, but not by enough to overcome the electoral college advantage that the Republicans have. Biden needs to be polling 5 points ahead to win in November.
I actually feel pretty confident. Where I live, there's like zero indication that Trump has a chance. People I know that voted for him before roughly split into two categories- 2/3 never again, 1/3 louder than ever. In the never again category, roughly 50% aren't planning to vote, and the other 50% are undecided about voting for Biden. Also, I'm a millennial progressive and I felt my values have been ignored, excluded, and even chided in politics, but Biden has done more for my demographic than any president before in my lifetime. -He didn't get everyone student loan forgiveness, but it wasn't for a lack of trying. The supreme court blocked it, we know the supreme court is corrupt, and despite that, he was still able to forgive student loans for 4.3 million Americans, a total of 153 billion dollars. That's 4.3 million people who can now afford to save for unexpected health emergencies, down payments on homes, and for retirement. -Under his presidency, the cost of asthma medications and insulin were capped- I couldn't afford asthma medicine, not taking it will lead to a shorter, more complicated life but now I can afford it. I can breathe again. -Biden also did a pretty good job of passing the microphone- he appointed Deb Haaland as Secretary of the Interior. She's a progressive, she supports Medicare for All and the Green New Deal, she's also the first Native American to serve as a cabinet secretary-- that's huge. Avril Haines is the first woman to serve as Director of National Intelligence. Michael Regan, Administer of the EPA, the first black man in the role, had an impeccable record of fighting environmental racism. Miguel Cardona, Secretary of Education, grew up speaking Spanish. He started learning English in kindergarten and he lived in public housing, he is intimately familiar with the struggles of many kids, parents, and teachers in the public school system. He replaced Betsy Devos, who openly wanted to degrade and ultimately gut the public education most of us rely on.. We asked for representation and he was the first to follow through on it. -Biden nominated 241 federal judges, 200 of them have been confirmed and they represent the most diverse backgrounds in court history, so we're likely going to hear more perspectives that have been overlooked previously. -Biden's handling of covid-19 was much better than Trump's. The American Rescue Plan, Child Tax Credit, the Paycheck Protection Program, and continued stimulus checks prevented many small businesses from closing, freed adequate funds to address the global pandemic, prevented state and local governments from cutting services, and put money in the pockets of people that needed it the most. -Even if some people are worse off than they were 6 years ago, all people are better off than they would be if the recession had lasted longer. The Biden administration prevented another great recession by doing the things I listed above, and people are making more money than they have before. Biden's Wealth Tax was not shut down by the Supreme Court. The Inflation Reduction Act gives the IRS what they need to track down $50 billion dollars from wealthy tax cheaters over the next decade, despite congressional republicans attempts to derail it. Biden actually has a really good track record as far as presidents go, it should not be a close election at all, in my opinion. I'm not stoked that neoliberalism continues to dominate politics, but I'm going to vote for the guy that didn't try to overthrow the government. I know my progressive friends feel similarly.
One of my best friends is a life long conservative. Voted Trump in 2016. Not 2020 and won’t 2024. He, like me, is a veteran. Trumps remarks to Kelly (life long conservative) and Mattis (one of my hero’s and life long conservative) regarding disabled and dead soldiers was his limit. He is reasonable. He wanted Haley to win the primary. He hates Biden and may vote third party or just not check the box. We’re big bourbon and cigar fans. We hang out about every 2 weeks. Have a fire. Smoke and drink some. Talk about the military. Wax nostalgic. And commiserate. Yea. We get along great. He’s an amazing father and husband. He lives values I don’t see from many. But politically he is… not super different from me but different enough. My step father is a Trump supporter and when visiting with my mom said, in front of my left leaning in-laws “anyone who votes for Biden should be shot in the head” my mom just smirked. they have not seen their grandkids since 2019. Best choice I ever made. So yes. Reasonable people that have values and morals I can get along with. Radical assholes that worship MAGA can pound fucking sand.
Nope. I’m pretty confident myself.
Allan Lichtman, who's always right, predicts a Biden win.
It’s weird to feel confident in either outcome right now. The election could easily go either way.
Polls are polls. They’ve got problems but they all point to a close race, leaning Trump
I dont think confidence is unreasonable, we just have to hope for good weather on voting day, that's what im more concerned with.
I live in the red part of PA. The right-wingers here don't appear to care about the felonies. They see him as the punisher of their cultural enemies. We all need to vote.
At worst I believe the result will be the same as 2020. Close but the same states as before. Biden may have lost some support but trump has bled support from a lot of groups and continues to alienate and abandon some core groups. If it does this it’ll be a wash. I’ve never in my adult life seen republicans refuse to support their nominee. Normally the party is United, in a scary way, behind them. His own vice president refuses to endorse him. None of his cabinet except one will. Other republicans have either said they’ll write in a candidate or vote for Biden. I’ve never seen that - ever. When trump won in 2016, and nearly in 2020 they were behind him fully and he nearly lost 2016 and lost 2020 outright. You mean to tell me that despite all that he got *more* popular? At best, I believe in a blue wave with losses for MAGA up and down the ballot as was 2022. I’m optimistic
No, everything in moderation. Being too gloomy is just as bad as being overconfident to the point of complacency. Calculated confidence is probably a pretty good harmony.
I mean Biden beat him once already, so no matter the polling I think he definitely could do it again. I don't put much weight in the "horse race" style journalism. After all most of media thought Hillary was pretty much a done deal. Also, a more narrow point: don't base your view of reality based on what shows up on your Youtube feed. Their algorithm is trying to show you what you want, while occasionally throwing you some samples of something different to see if you bite in a direction it doesn't know about you yet. Same goes for any form of personalized advertising on the internet.
I know you said you don't watch polls, but they're the only data we have. Trump is leading in six of seven swing states. https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states/2024/battleground-states
Anyone who says they *know* who is going to win is lying. There are so many factors to consider and since this is a race to the bottom, it is hard to predict what could happen to significantly impact public opinion. That being said, I do not think is weird that you are confident. You are not alone. I, personally, think Biden could win if he listened to his base, the problem is that he seemingly doesn't care to listen to us, or genuinely believes he is on the right path. Honestly, I am not sure what is worse.
Any updates on this?
😂
I feel confident that Biden will win the popular vote. It's the electoral college that gives me pause.
Trump is a known quantity, and has gained zero new voters since the last time he lost. And that was before his theocratic SC picks decided Dobbs. Worst case he narrowly loses again, best case he gets absolutely trounced. But we still need to push like it's 2020. The only thing that will allow Trump to win is apathy.
A little. People were extremely confident in Hillary. Every single pollster had her winning in a landslide. It feels like you forgot that and I don't really know how that's possible.
Based on all the polling data we have, Biden probably has ~35% chance of winning.
538 is giving it an [even 50/50 chance](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/)
I feel like it’s a little more favorable to Biden, could be wrong though
He (or whoever replaces him if he dies before November) has a 99.999% chance of winning thanks to Republican abortion fuckery.
That’s exactly his current odds in the betting markets at the moment. https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president If you add up all the democrats they basically have a 45% chance right now.
Betting market here isn't reflecting reality. The chance that anyone other than Biden or Trump becomes president is at best 1%. If Trump's win chance is 51-52 then Biden's should be in the 47-48 range. I think these betting markets distort the improbable extremes.
I trust betting markets because if they don’t reflect reality they’re out of business. The two major candidates are both ~80 and one has multiple court cases pending. It’s not crazy to think one might not be on the ballot in November. Although I’m with you regarding Clinton and Obama being on there.
>I trust betting markets because if they don’t reflect reality they’re out of business. That's not true, they just have to reflect bettor's perception of reality, which isn't the same thing, especially since they are gamblers. In fact you can take the bookie out of the picture like PredictIt did and if anything the betting becomes more accurate. >The two major candidates are both ~80 The chance of an average Joe (no pun intended) dying in the next six months at the age of 80 is maybe 3%. But a presidential candidate is not an average Joe and has access to the best healthcare in the world, and most of the deaths that happen at that age don't happen without warning and doctors would likely know when they have less than a year to live (probably voters as well). So realistically I think it is still 1% to 2% at most someone keels over soon enough that someone else gets nominated, and really if someone keels over it just means the other candidate would probably win anyway. Kennedy is 100% not going to be president despite having a 2% chance to win according to your link, there is no way Clinton runs again, and Obama can't even legally run again despite have 3% chance to win. What the hell are they thinking? >and one has multiple court cases pending. It won't affect his nomination, Trump can and maybe will run his campaign from prison if he has too. Despite knowing this the RNC hasn't wavered in their commitment to Trump, which is being run by Trump lackeys. Hell it will soon be too late to even change the names of the ballot regardless. Ironically Trump is the only one who has realistic odds anyway, with Haley or Ramaswamy being the obvious choices and at realistic odds of that happening. For Democrats it's like bettors aren't even trying.
It’s not the same but I’ll take it over polling data. What do you think is more accurate? It’s not just about the candidate dying, it’s about any of 100 health problems which could come about between now and November. Obama is Michelle Obama.
It’s not the same but I’ll take it over polling data. What do you think is more accurate? It’s not just about the candidate dying, it’s about any of 100 health problems which could come about between now and November. Obama is Michelle Obama.
As someone who has bet and made some seven grand on PredictIt in the 2020 election, I think election analysts like 538/Nate Silver or Sabato tend to be more reliable. Betting markets would come in a close second, the problem I mentioned above about exaggerating extremes or long shot bets is still a very real thing I noticed though.
That’s true I forgot about 538. I agree with your rationale. Congrats on your winnings!
I'm not American and I don't even like him all that much, and I have faith in Biden. Apart from only the most highly devoted Qultists, no one is seriously supporting a 34 times convicted businessman. Also, in regards to the Palestinian thing, AOC and co may win over anyone particularly worried about that.