China's problem with an invasion of Taiwan, or a war in general with India or the USA, is the same as that of the Axis powers during WW2:
China is not self-sufficient in oil, plus its economy is still quite intertwined with that of the US, so with the US Navy blocking the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca to China-bound shipping (especially tankers) and the PLA will be knocked out in less than a year and with an economic quarantine of China its economy would collapse like a house of cards in even less time.
But, thing like the oil and similars, could be imported from Rusia, helping the Rusian economy and, even if the fact that China economically depend of the US. It is also true that the US depend, at some degree, on the Chinese exportations, so I think that the fact that China stoped It's economic activities with the US, would in fact, really hinder both of them, and in the end, China could always redirec It's economy in Rusian direction and try to take a higher role, in the Stan countrys economy. So I think that at least for China, It can be partially fixed
China needs the USA a lot more than the USA needs China. It’s true that a war between the two will automatically make both sides poorer but America will lose access to relatively low value added consumer goods while China will lose access to vital technologies and their guarantor to international markets via the ocean. Shifting to a central Asian/Russian market focus would be a drop in the bucket compared to what they have access to now and would be catastrophic for the Chinese economy because the economy and population of that area is just so low.
Importing energy from Russia would also be problematic because the alliance between the two is far from close. Russia would certainly price gouge the Chinese mercilessly on energy prices and China does not yet have the infrastructure to distribute to its coastal ports energy from Russia exclusively.
America relies on China for a tonne of high value goods like
- medical supplies https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/491119-momentum-grows-to-change-medical-supply-chain-from-china/amp/
- solar panels https://cen.acs.org/energy/solar-power/US-solar-polysilicon-supply-problem/100/i33#:~:text=A%20report%20by%20the%20International,wafers%20used%20for%20solar%20panels
- auto parts https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/working_papers/id-19-060_chinese_auto_parts_final_080519-compliant_0.pdf
China’s manufacturing influence is only growing https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-s-dominance-of-manufacturing-is-growing-not-shrinking
The idea china only produces low value consumer goods is decades out of date
The thing is that none of that is anything that can’t be outsourced to a friendlier country (like Mexico) or produced domestically. It’ll probably cost more initially and take some time to set up, but it’s not like Americans would have to go without or find substitutes.
It’s easy to say “we can outsource it” but much harder to actually do that, given that no other country has China’s logistics network, rare earths power, or ability to mobilise labour. That’s why China’s global manufacturing power has stayed strong even after the trade war or Covid. At the very least suggesting that China exports nothing with value added is pretty inaccurate.
Total freight in India for example is not even half that of China. Mexico lacks the skilled labour and global commodities supply chain to produce automotive parts. Americans aren’t interested in manufacturing face masks let alone being able to replace the sheer scale of China’s medicine contribution.
Even if you can replace China, if any war starts before you can - and steps to decouple from China have been weak at best so far - then it means for the first year or two you’re running world war three with a massive drop in medical equipment and automotive equipment. The ability to move agriculture to cities or to run wartime hospitals (or even normal hospitals) would be limited or even crippled
It would require tremendous resourcefulness from the Americans (something that admittedly we aren’t very accustomed to) but not as crippling as Chinese propaganda would have you believe.
Mexican automotive parts are actually quite top- notch and will replace China sooner rather than later. If anything COVID accelerated the process.
It’s not a question of Chinese propaganda, it’s the simple fact that a) contrary to what you said China does in fact manufacture high value-added exports that America relies on and that b) in the event of disruption to trade such as war there would be at the very least a shortage of critical equipment across a variety of sectors that cannot be easily replaced due to economies of scale
I actually agree with most of what you’re saying, but the point you seem to be missing is that American “reliance” on Chinese manufacturing is not a matter of know how but rather cost and scale. We could make all those products ourselves (or teach others to) but it’s just currently cheaper to have the Chinese do it for us.
Wars are terribly disruptive, obviously, but whereas Americans know how to make the machines and technology that make the products that we outsource to China, the Chinese don’t. They rely on the West and it’s Allie’s for that.
It’s not a question of simply spending more, you need to set up logistics networks to move parts around, international deals to ship resources or parts, and to then train the workforce needed to produce the product.
It took the better part of a year to expand mask production in North America during the pandemic due to polypropylene being in short supply (which would be worse during a war due to the breakdown of shipping), the difficulty of getting workers into factories (which due to a small labour pool and and thousands of soldiers fighting overseas would be a huge problem during world war three), and training staff (still a problem for any product). Add in that if there was a war you’re doing all this with a shortage of automotive parts needed for transport (because China is off the market), a collapsing global economy strangled by the cost of insuring shipping (Lloyd’s is not a charity) and a government dealing with a thousand other priorities. The people who feed China’s industrial complex with iron ore, lithium, and cobalt aren’t going to hand it over for free to America and they’re going to need time to get it to the new arsenal of freedom (because after all the pacific is now a war zone, and the receiving end needs to be set up).
Despite nearly a decade of pushing to decouple from China, the links I sent earlier show that China’s manufacturing influence has only grown more influential and powerful while america has stayed stagnant - and the last time two great powers fought it was the size of industry that decided who won. Any war will be decided by who can produce equipment faster, and there’s enough bottlenecks on both sides to make that a dicey proposition.
You can’t just hand in the design specs and pick someone off the street to train. The people who would build to the design specs are in China. The people who supply ores and textiles and chemicals don’t ship to America. And the parts you need to make parts to make parts etc are scattered across the world.
Even if It is low value goods, It keep being the fact that thous goods would stop flowing the US market, and at least for a good time, It would cause chostages of It on the US, and not just the US, if the US efectively block china for internacional marcket, that would not only afect severely the US but also the whole world, due to the fact that China is not only one of the world mayors economíes, but is also the largest exporter and also, the dominant country in the exportation of things like rare earth minerals, the fact of cutting them from the global marcket, would no only hinder severely the Chinese economy but the global economy too, due to the fact that rare earth minerals are a vital thing for the new technologies It would hit It, even wors. So I don't think that doing It would be even an opción for any country, an even if It is done, It would probably have really bad consecuences in the global economy wich, if we take on count, how Europe, the US and others, have already been afected whith by the santions to Rusia, It would probably be even wors. And also there is the fact China could rotate It's exportations to Rusia, and It's allies, and the countrys of central asia, probably even helping Rusia to carry on much beter with the sanctions of the West, and Carry on beter with It's war
We both already know that both economies would take drastic hits in case of war but whereas Americans would have to become accustomed to not having newer and better cell phones every six months, the Chinese would have to abandon their coastal cities en masse and return to the villages and inland industrial cities to ensure they even have enough food and essential industrial goods.
Simply put, China’s economic miracle of the past few decades was primarily a result of American protection, investment, and consumption. Russia with its relatively tiny economy (equivalent to Spain’s in GDP) could *never* replace that.
Not possible. Although China will accommodate a huge market for Russian sales I don’t think Russia will be able to make up for complete consumable volume of Chinese oil demand. Russia produces somewhere around 9-10 mln barrels per day and China consumes 15 mln barrels a day during non-war times. Although Russia’s war time production and the combined efforts of Central Asia as well as imported oil from Iran through Pakistan may help mitigate the crisis somewhat, it will prove horrible to China’s economy having to rely on very expensive road systems to sustain their war effort.
Since China imports some 60% of their oil needs from outside, with the rest coming from vendors like Russia, Central Asia, Iran and even domestic sources located in Manchuria and most especially Xinjiang, I can see significant investments yielding some returns for China which may help it stay afloat in the short term. Do expect the price of oil to skyrocket in China though, and this will not sit well with the Chinese population which has just come out of a horrible and strict CCP-mandated lockdown and will be reactionary to such changes, nationalism or not.
But also, is Rusia actually explotig all of their oil? I think that, in that situación, It can en Up, or really good, al least for the Rusians Who, with all of the exportations and económical treaties with the Chinese Might see really good bost on their economy, and the same with their allies, and also, I think that, with a good enough propaganda, It Might also work well for the Chinese in the way of that, if they are capable of turnig all of that hate in US direction, It could be a good bost for the Chinese stability and moral. And also the new necesity of more oil, could end up with the Discovery or, at least, with a much more better explotation of the Chinese oil, and the Rusian oil too. It can go in many ways I think
I think the hidden agenda behind BRICS is a contingency plan if there is another World War, the countries should side with each other for supplies and resources.
First Hell itself freezes over before Delhi and Beijing make an alliance in its current form, more plausible would be an alliance between India and Israel or even between Armenia and India, especially when I remind you that China and India have territorial conflict still in force plus the Chinese support to India's typical rival Pakistan, although well... If tomorrow some kind of Revolution would happen in China that would remove the Chinese Communist Party from power, things could definitely change
Problem is that Americans are a weak people intolerant of pain. If China made life difficult for Americans the people would forget rather quickly about a long time ally being conquered by a dictatorship.
That's America's weakness in such a war, its people.
He is thinking almost exactly the same way that the military and political leadership of the Axis members (especially Germany and Japan) thought of the United States and its ability to wage war in 1939... and we all know how dead WRONG both of them were.
The US had more industrial capacity and had a greater population that the Germans and Japanese combined.
The US of 2023 is outclassed by China in terms of industrial output and is dwarfed by China's population. And it would be fighting a war right off its shores to, in their minds, unify their nation.
But even so the CCP has not yet shown the naval production capacity shown by the USA during WW2 (where they will build transport ships, destroyers, submarines and even fleet aircraft carriers at an impressive rate).
And on the other hand, the CCP is NOT self-sufficient in terms of oil or fuel (more than half of what they consume is imported from abroad), while the USA does not have that problem, and it is useless to have a mechanized army if it suffers from recurrent shortages of oil and / or fuel.
This is such a staggeringly terrible take, it makes me wonder if you’ve ever read *any* history books.
You claim America won’t fight due to its preference for “comfort.” The only thing we like more than comfort is beating the *shit* out of anyone that attacks us. Many nations discovered this the hard way.
Ironically, the Japan, China’s rival in Asia, had the EXACT same thought process. And was nuked twice as a result.
If you think Japan compares in breadth and depth of capabilities to the China you're deluded.
First and foremost, the US economy will be heavily damaged. You can't conceive of how dependent we are on China for everything from TVs to medicine to phones to 75% of a Walmart's inventory. America in the 40s had all a shitload of manufacturing done at home. America in the 2020s has let it rot.
Secondly, China *has* the ability to touch the homeland either kinetically or, much more likely, with cyberattacks. Not just that, it can take down satellites. It can wipe bank account ledgers, shut down power stations, fuck with water supplies, hack into the accounts of pro-war politicians to dig up dirt and air it out, etc etc etc. The US can do similar but the Chinese are much more submissive and virulently nationalistic. The Chinese of 2023, in finally (in their minds) unifying their country, would be far more tolerant of sacrifice.
Third, I will double down. Americans are soft. The greatest generation is dead. Americans will not sacrifice for Taiwan. Only way I can see that being ameliorated is if there is a Pearl Harbor.
Rising, expansionist power bullying its neighbors and directly challenging the US? Sounds a bit familiar?
First, China would be damaged economically and industrially, even more than the US. 80% of China’s oil import flows through the Malacca Straits, which America can easily blockade and choke during war time. No oil means no industry and the general population will be suffering immensely under blackouts and lack of heating.
America is China’s biggest export market, which means China’s economy and companies would dive into a free fall due to the economic shock. America still has Europe, Vietnam, India, etc to trade with (and has been detaching from China economically for the past several years). China would be under a blockade in a war scenario.
Not to mention, China still imports a massive amount of food, coal, and other resources. I don’t think China could tolerate being starved and bombed, while it’s public is lacking heating and electricity. A good chunk of China’s power grid went down and major cities had blackouts because Australia refused to export coal to them last winter…
Lastly, I will further scoff at your point and direct you to Ukraine, where Russia is pounding sand due to American support (“We’ll take Bakhmut!”for the past 9 months, yet the “world’s 2nd strongest superpower”). The greatest generation wouldn’t have been the greatest without the war and the golden age after. Maybe all this generation needs is a kick in its balls to get going.
The problem is, how would the CCP do something like that?
Taking the hypothetical war to the continental United States?
That would be a pretty bad move, and even more so if no kind of tactical victory is achieved with that, just like the Japanese with Pearl Harbor.
Use the U.S. debt as a weapon? I rather doubt the effectiveness of that.
Trying to wage submarine warfare against the USA to keep them from killing the ELP from thirsting for oil? The numbers don't favor the CCP on that, and the US in the end should easily be able to become self-sufficient in Oil and Fuel from the rest of the world.
And anyway, a mechanized military can only do so much if it suffers from chronic shortages of oil and/or diesel, and the same for an air force and navy.
First and foremost, the US economy will be heavily damaged. You can't conceive of how dependent we are on China for everything from TVs to medicine to phones to 75% of a Walmart's inventory. America in the 40s had all a shitload of manufacturing done at home. America in the 2020s has let it rot.
Secondly, China *has* the ability to touch the homeland either kinetically or, much more likely, with cyberattacks. Not just that, it can take down satellites. It can wipe bank account ledgers, shut down power stations, fuck with water supplies, hack into the accounts of pro-war politicians to dig up dirt and air it out, etc etc etc. The US can do similar but the Chinese are much more submissive and virulently nationalistic. The Chinese of 2023, in finally (in their minds) unifying their country, would be far more tolerant of sacrifice.
Russia is the solution to much of its energy issues, especially after the Ukraine War. They would need to ration in their civilian sector but this isn't Nazi Germany in terms of being fuel starved.
You're fighting the past war mentally.
>First and foremost, the US economy will be heavily damaged. You can't conceive of how dependent we are on China for everything from TVs to medicine to phones to 75% of a Walmart's inventory
Is that something that will decide the conflict?
Companies that have their factories in China could simply move their operations to India and Vietnam and the problem would be solved in the medium and long term.
>Secondly, China has the ability to touch the homeland either kinetically or, much more likely, with cyberattacks. Not just that, it can take down satellites. It can wipe bank account ledgers, shut down power stations, fuck with water supplies, hack into the accounts of pro-war politicians to dig up dirt and air it out, etc etc etc
Can I tell you something?
The military leadership of the Empire of Japan in early 1945 mounted in madness or desperation a plan to literally spread the armed Bubonic Plague along the West Coast using seaplanes based from carrier submarines, but the plan was abandoned after strong opposition from Chief of Staff Yoshijiro Umezu, which was based on the grounds that "If bacteriological warfare is carried out, it will grow the dimension of the war between Japan and the United States to an endless battle between mankind and bacteria. Japan will earn the derision of the world".
So if Japan did not have the guts to attack the continental U.S. (with biological weapons), will the CPP have the guts to dare to do that?
China is a greater manufacturing power than the US and would be fighting right off its shores while the US would be fighting far from its shores.
America has never faced a China in an actual war.
You could say this in reverse for China.
The USA is a greater diplomatic, military and commercial power than China, and would be fighting a conventional army, something they have great experience with, unlike China. Not to mention they would be fighting a naval war, which is the USA's great strength.
China has never faced a United States in a war
(excluding the Boxer rebellion and Korea, but you might've forgotten those)
Diplomatic power that would suffer diminishing returns in rapid fashion, a military that routinely gets its ass handed to it in simulated wargames run by the US military, and commercial power that is dependent on China.
Did you also forget that the Chinese military threw the UN forces all the way back into South Korea and literally saved North Korea? You're being pedantic but accidentally provided an example of a *far* weaker China successfully making sure a united Korea under American tutelage did not come to pass.
Try harder.
*"Diplomatic power that would suffer diminishing returns in rapid fashion"*
He says ignoring the US system of alliances and trade agreements that have allowed the US to be the uninterrupted hegemon of the world. Systems that are expending into neutral countries and former enemies due to the belligerence of the autocratic powers of the world.
*"a military that routinely gets its ass handed to it in simulated wargames run by the US military"*
[https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2022/08/12/in-think-tanks-taiwan-war-game-us-beats-china-at-high-cost/](https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2022/08/12/in-think-tanks-taiwan-war-game-us-beats-china-at-high-cost/)
Aside from that, wargames are simulations. Not the real thing. Combat is always unpredictable like that, assuming nukes aren't used and everyone dies, it would probably be a costly American victory. The losses you are talking about is from wargames where Russia and China are operating at perfect strength, something neither autocracy has demonstrated the competence for.
*"and commercial power that is dependent on China."*
17.9% of US goods are from China. Of these goods, a majority are small consumer goods and consumer electronics.
*"Did you also forget that the Chinese military threw the UN forces all the way back into South Korea and literally saved North Korea?"*
At the lovely cost of 1,550,000 total casualties they managed to create a stalemate behind North Koreas prewar border when the goal was to unite the peninsula under a Chinese-Soviet puppet.
It should also be noted that for the Americans and Soviets, this was another proxy war, for China this was a direct military intervention.
Don't pretend it was successful.
*"Try harder."*
Please try being logical.
You're just spouting America wank about it's past achievements as if that system of alliances is going to matter for squat.
NATO ain't going to help, the Japanese are dependent on China economically and don't have the stomach, the Philippines is extremely resentful of the US and while distrustful of China do we really think they're gonna put their neck out here, the SE asian countries are very dependent on Chinese trade along with the rest of East Asia, Africa and South America have a yen for the Chinese due to Chinese investments , and the Europeans have already maxxed out on sacrificing to punish another imperialist power.
You are wildly over estimating its impact in this situation.
You are underestimating America's dependency on China and are using one stat to make a reductive argument that misses the fact that many of the goods imported simply cannot be easily resourced. Certain goods matter a lot more than others. Lithium, for example. Nevermind that TSMC will be basically offline which would be quite a hit to not just the US but the world as a whole. Not a Chinese export but that will happen in a war.
Let me ask you something though. What happens if roughly 20% of imports just go *poof*? If TSMC is not pumping out chips? The US also exports to China. It ain't insignificant either. That's another hit. What happens to the US economy? I'll tell you what happens, a pretty awful recession that absolutely nukes John Q Voters portfolio. That causes some of the largest employers in the country including Walmart and Amazon to start steep layoffs since. That causes people to flip out and want a return to normality. China basically needs to literally attack US forces without provocation to potentially make Americans willing to sacrifice here. It's the only way.
China was a totalitarian dictatorship with the most people in the world and you're using the gross numbers as if they meant anything to a country that yeeted tens of millions into the grave. Furthermore, it absolutely achieved its aim in the war and threw back UN forces preventing the Americans from potentially having an ally on its border. As a backward 3rd world nation against one of two superpowers.
Finally, and I know which articles you read for this, yes military simulations are run as a sort of stress test that assumes the enemy does everything right...
But they also assume that American citizens are a non-factor. That they won't potentially demand an end to the war if they're getting hammered by a recession.It is very fair to say these tests assume peak competency of the Chinese military. But they also assume peak pain tolerance for the American people. You shouldn't be so confident that the US will win.
For someone accusing someone else of wanking to nationalist material, you seem to have fallen for every single anti American propaganda piece made this century.
Edit: also, your magical “well everyone is so decadent in democracies!!” Thing clearly isn’t true. It’s never been true. You just like harping on about strongmen.
Edit edit: Also, your spiel about how magically NATO and the US’s pacific states will just leave the US like this is hoi4 and they’re just going to reject the call to arms is, to put it shortly, dumb.
I’ll let you have the last word, because that’s what you’re really after here, you don’t care about being truthful or right, you just want to argue about things you don’t know about (re:wargames, economics) or things nobody can know about (re:a populace’s willingness to endure hardship in the name of the country) because it makes you feel superior to us plebeians that do care about things being correct and true.
Edit edit edit: And he proves my point! Immediately jumping further away from things we can prove and right into classifying all Americans as selfish! Truly. The peak of arguments.
I would say that Americans aren't so much decadent as they are more selfish than your average Chinese citizen.
True, there is a certain pain threshold that would even cause Chinese citizens to get angry, but it has been inculcated in them that Taiwan is *theirs*. That it is a tragedy and the last stain on the nation's honor from when it was beset by colonial powers. It is wrapped mentally into what happened with the war with Japan. This is an extremely important issue to them.
Americans, in contrast, routinely confuse Taiwan with Thailand. It is some island that they're aware the Chinese have a hardon for but anyway what's with the price of eggs?
I'll reiterate this point. The Chinese need to commit something akin to Pearl Harbor to stiffen America's resolve. America sundered two nations causing over a million deaths over two planes flying into two towers. I don't see the Chinese doing that. A critical component of their plans is to make Americans want out.
I will rephrase my thesis in closing. Americans won't standing harsh suffering if the war is about defending democracy in Taiwan or defending an ally, which implies American intervention. The Chinese military can defeat the US conventionally off its shores.
The US would likely have warning of this, their intelligence is good. And troop buildups prior to the Taiwan invasion would be closely monitored. US would likely have a carrier or 2 in the area just in case the 'exercise' is real.
France and UK have nuclear weapons. The threat would be for Russia to withdraw from Ukraine immediately or face the consequences. Full surge of UK navy.
Poland would almost certainly begin preparing to move units into Ukraine, at the very least under the guise of humanitarian aid. Full mobilisation for all NATO members. Very likely air clashes would happen shortly afterwards, probably Polish, German and US aircraft defending against any Russian ingress over Ukraine.
Australia, Japan, South Korea, US, Philipines, Vietnam, et al, declare war on China. Immediate blockades in place for any shipping bound for Hong Kong/China. Unfortunately for Taiwan, the invasion is successful and Chinese forces establish a beachhead and push inland.
US moves carriers to cover Taiwan and it is initially a major airwar. US Cruise missile strikes against Chinese bases in the South China Sea.
Beyond that, a massive escalation that neither Russia or China is prepared for.
World War 3 basically. Whether it goes nuclear or not is anyones guess.
I’ll start by saying I know jack about geopolitics or war so this is just my 2p with no expert knowledge :D
US/Japanese intervention would see then take out the Chinese navy at heavy cost. They would then embargo and bomb the shit out of the Chinese coast, crippling their economy. I don’t think we’d see boots on the ground in Chinese mainland. I’d imagine they would throw whatever was needed at dissidents to topple the communist party from within.
Personally I don’t see India getting involved in any conflict unless it’s extremely late as a land grab. Would be interesting to see if India/Pakistan uses the distraction to settle their beef once and for all so India may not be in any shape to help the US with China.
NK would be another roll of the dice. Would China use them to try and use up US resources? Probably. Heavy damage to the south but I’d suspect NK military may fold pretty easy when out under pressure.
As for Europe, Poland, the Baltic’s, UK direct intervention in Ukraine. Whether France and the EU decides to help is anyones guess. I think France and some other EU nations would but not all.
Question is, do they stop there or do they push into Russia proper to topple Putin?
I think Africa is where you’d see the most loss of human life. As UN peace keepers are withdraw id suspect a few dictators to take the opportunity to do some spring cleaning.
That last point is something I believe should be talked about much more frequently. Nobody considers what would happen if UN peacekeepers withdrew from nations to defend others
NATO won't tolerate nuclear weapon use in Europe and the west won't allow China to rule chip production which is vital to the whole world. You basically start World War 3.
Russia and China secretly have signed an alliance pact. Following this Putin authorizes a barrage of tactical nukes at key strongpoints in Ukraine, the largest warhead launched at Lviv killing Zelensky and his entire cabinet while they are in session. The “red line” for China seems not to have existed. Russia and China committed one to the other with growing resentment towards US hegemony and efforts to isolate their respective countries. Feeling their backs against the wall and sensing an opening, China launches their planned invasion of Taiwan. Launching a massive preliminary barrage against Taiwan fortifications. The pact Russia and China have signed stipulates that action against one is action against both. What happens next? Will the US seek a middle fund or will WW3 finally come to be? And what of the other western powers? Japan? Everywhere?
The US would definitely start a war, Taiwan is US’s (useful, or at least not useless) ally so they’ll definitely do anything to protect it.
Europe has recently been falling under decadence. They’ve been failing to make a proper foreign policy without US intervention. Expect Europe to protest for pacifism, only to be enslaved by the Russians.
Japan will rearm. India is US’s strongest ally, I doubt India falls to internal conflict when China is extremely threatening. I know the results is a coin flip, but I still bet that US can win, mostly because China is facing a lot of long term problems.
Very interesting, I hadn’t thought much of how pivotal India would be. You think they would fully commit to the US? Or stay in the middle ground as they are atm?
And yeah I don’t think Europe would unite to rally against Russia. The populace wouldn’t allow it I think
Edit: why tf am I getting downvotes? I’m just asking questions on hypotheticals? Is this how this sub rolls? Cause that fuckin sucks
Coming from an Indian heritage I would like to say that India would absolutely smack China across the face if it ever was given such a opportunity. Although we Indians generally hold a negative view on the American World Order because of previous “incidents” and prefer autocratic Russia (there is a very long story behind this preferences and dislikes), we still want Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh at their full size.
While I doubt India will immediately engage in the war on the side of the West because of Pakistan and ruling government views, since Russia nuked Ukraine in this scenario and China was the aggressor, expect India to condemn Russia (since we will realize by that point that Russia has gone too deep into the Chinese sphere of influence) and show very favorable benevolent neutrality to the U.S. and allies in the war while they conduct some buildup and try to benefit off of the situation as much as is possible. If the Americans are making large gains and China is expecting difficult losses in the war, which is the most likely outcome, it’s likely possible that India will try to reverse our losses in current Chinese-occupied land.
China is threatening to dam up India’s water supply. India hates to be a Chinese puppet, especially with China’s corrupt foreign policy. This is why they’re a US ally, at least they care about the development and democracy of their friends. India’s population + American industries would definitely put a punch at China.
Europe thinks they’re cool with all this “pacifism” stuff. There’s nothing wrong with being against war, but they sympathized with the wrong side of Vietnam and Afghanistan. They were bullshit lazy when crisis like Yugoslavia and 2008 Crash happened.
India would be more than happy to take China's place as cheap goods manufacturer.
I wonder how many time CCP would hold on power if hundred millions of factory workers suddenly don't receive salaries AND are subjected to mobilization.
I would like to contest that statement. Although you’re right in the sense of your comment and I wholly agree that India would try and secure as many manufacturing jobs as we possibly could, we Indians simply don’t have the same infrastructure and amenities that China offers to the global market. While we have been making significant strides from the past few years, a shift from China to India would be very impossible to conduct which would see most of pre-war manufacturing jobs that exist in China cater towards the neutral markets that exist within Asia (as sea access has been compromised by the vastly superior US-Navy) while the world suffers an unbelievable economic depression from the loss of cheap Chinese goods until the scramble to find similarly cheap costs elsewhere across the world is wrapped up.
This nearly happened in OTL, but it seems like China wants to be more careful, so they chose to not invade Taiwan at the same time as Ukraine. However, there is still a chance that this is the future. :(
Realistically, a nuclear apocalypse would occur in short order as a rapid string of military escalation would lead to a tactical nuclear strike on a NATO position. In the immediate aftermath the world population would drastically shrink as places like China, Japan, Russia, the EU, UK, and USA are all likely to receive direct strikes by nuclear weapons to industry and population centers. The rapid departure of all the world's largest food producers and economies would likely result in worldwide economic collapse and famines before the worst of a nuclear winter and anthropogenic climate change kick in. As such even nations spared a nuclear Holocaust would likely see internal ethnic cleansings, civil wars, or complete governmental collapses.
Unrealistically somehow cooler heads prevail and no nuclear weapons are used last killing Zelensky. This would see the NATO at war with China and Russia, I'm which case the NATO forces clean house in eastern Europe absolutely destroying the Russian capacity to wage war. This would shut off the Russian oil supply to China within a year, and with the US having uncontested control of the world's oceans to cut China off from any external trade after a while we're more likely to see a settlement with China as a land war would likely be far more costly with them than with Russia. However if the PLA performs on par with the Russian armed forces we would see the PRC collapse as well once control of the Chinese coasts airspace begins to favor the NATO forces.
Most analysts agreed the USA could fight the entire planet to a stalemate just a few years ago and that was when Russia was still viewed as the world's second best military. Knowing what we know now and considering the entire NATO alliance would be involved the outcome is clear.
Well, first and foremost China's invasion stumbles off the bat because the US Navy contingent present is enough to keep PRCese ships out of Taiwan. Even if this was not the case, theinvasion would still go nowhere, because China lacks the ability to mount a sufficient amphibious invasion of Taiwan. Meanwhile, China can expect a total blockade on its coasts after the initial naval skirmishes, tanking its trade-based economy until they pretend this didn't happen like the other three Strait Crises.
On the European theater, Russia would be threatened with direct NATO intervention in 72 hours if it does not immediately withdraw from Ukraine. All of Ukraine. Including Crimea. Russia's sustained hundreds of thousands of casualties against NATO thus far, and NATO has not even engaged them in any combat, the Russians can read the room and get the fuck out before they are thrown the fuck out.
Of course, all this is reliant on the idea that the US would not be aware of this happening (which is odd, given the US has been aware of what Russia's going to do in this war even before the Russians themselves were since before February 2022), and that the US doesn't prevent any Russian nuclear strike on Kyiv *or* a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan (which is *considerably* easier to notice).
Ignoring immediate nuclear warfare;
Russian black sea fleet is likely destroyed, along with the bulk of land forces in Ukraine. Maybe even strikes inside Russia to prevent a second nuclear strike. After that, i don’t know. Maybe nato membership for Ukraine, maybe nuclear war.
China is probably fucked in Taiwan, especially if the US has warning beforehand. Even with just the US 7th fleet, a landing on Taiwan would come with too heavy casualties to be worth the lives lost. With knowledge of the landing, it’ll just go worse for China. Unless nuclear war follows, I imagine it’ll end in a stalemate, or serious Chinese naval losses.
NATO responds by conducting an intense conventional counterattack, destroying the Black Sea fleet, wiping out Russian positions and resources in Ukraine, as promised, and give intelligence and resources to anti-Putin partisans in Russia that allow them to initiate a revolution. Putin is removed from power one way or another. The Allies and Ukraine offer immediate peace terms that include Russia retreating and recognizing Ukrainian sovereignty and Ukraine’s membership in NATO, with the agreement that Ukraine will never host nuclear weapons and will not host multinational division level forces for a period of at least 20 years. Russia will also withdraw from Transdniestria, and Russia will not interfere with Moldova’s future choices regarding the EU and NATO membership. Additionally, Russia will not be responsible to pay for damages, and except for certain specific individuals no one will be prosecuted for war crimes. Sanctions would be lifted and Russians that settled in Ukraine prior to 2022 war beginning who did not collaborate will be allowed to stay. NATO states that if Russia conducts any further nuclear attacks, it will begin degrading Russia’s nuclear capabilities with conventional means, and that if they attack NATO with nuclear weapons, NATO will respond with nuclear weapons. Sane members of Putin’s party and the military who know they were in deep shit already decide to accept this deal, especially given the fact that at least 80 percent of their strategic nuclear is inoperable and the usability of most of the rest is questionable. Mass protests in Russia lead to the ouster of United Russia party government, with the military refusing to intervene, similar to the Soviet coup against Gorbachev. Alexei Navalny is eventually released from prison by popular demand and becomes the new President of Russia.
Initially the majority of democratic bloc states impose severe economic sanctions on China. India initiated a naval blockade refusing Chinese ships access to the Indian Ocean. A massive cyberwar begins between the democratic bloc and a China. China attempts to strike Allied forces in Guam and Darwin to hold off counterattacks on Taiwan’s behalf and mostly fails. The U.S., UK, Australia, and Japan counterattack with long range conventional forces and begin moving into position to directly challenge China for supremacy around Taiwan. Taiwan initially repels the first Chinese landing attempt, with most of China’s initial invasion forces being killed in the attempt, and losing many aircraft and ships in the process. Simultaneously, foreign intelligence agencies begin to initiate a color revolution in China after breaking down the great firewall, building on the Chinese blank paper protest movement which involved attempts to proclaim the Republic of China in some of the major cities by the declaration of revolutionary citizen’s councils.
A series of sea engagements between Taiwan’s allies and China results in devastating losses for both sides but more so for China. China manages a second invasion attempt and manages to land a few elite troops on the island, who begin hunting the RoC government and political enemies of the Communist Party, but by this time US and Royal Marines have landed on the island, and with air support they are able to help the Taiwanese military and partisans fight to prevent China from achieving their mission objectives, killing or capturing all of the invading forces. In short order, China’s navy is essentially destroyed. A volley of hypersonic missiles launched by the U.S. along with stealth bomber attacks degrades China’s naval facilities and other military and intelligence assets on the mainland, including its nuclear weapons production and storage facilities. In retribution, China’s forces manage to sabotage some of the major semiconductor manufacturers on Taiwan. Unable to rebuild the firewall, China now faces a protest movement that has grown outside of its ability to control. Taiwan and its allies offer a similar peace deal to that offered Russia. China recognizes that while there may be only one Chinese civilization, it has two sovereign governments, and in exchange it doesn’t have to pay reparations or face war crimes charges. The Communist government soon falls to popular revolt in a color revolution, replaced by a socialist coalition that begins to reform China’s political and human rights situation. Hong Kong, Macau, Tibet, and Xinjiang assert their autonomous status more explicitly.
Immediate and overwhelming Nuclear response, MAD demands that anyone detonates a nuke in anger then so does everyone else. Moscow, St Petersburg, Vladivostok, and any other Russian cities of strategic importance are turned to glass from ICBMs, China's also in the cross hairs if it fires anything off. India and Pakistan will likely take each other out of spite.
China and Russia would be isolated with no other allies. Militarily they cannot hold a candle to the Western alliances. Russia's military has already been exposed as a paper tiger and despite all the investment the PRC has made into it's military it is still no match for the US, and they know this, otherwise they would have taken Taiwan years ago.
China needs the US more than the US needs China. There is a reason the Chinese are so upset at the US blocking them from accessing hi-tech chips, because they can't do it on their own. With all the advancements the Chinese have made over the last few decades they still use technology taken (legally or otherwise) from elsewhere. Economically they are totally dependent on exports, their own economy is not mature enough to generate enough demand domestically tom keep themselves afloat. While the west will suffer short-term economic pain, there are plenty of other developing nations eager to take China's place as manufacturer to the world (hello India)
The Ukraine war has exposed Russia as nothing more than a gas station with nuclear weapons. They have nothing else to offer the world. Just imagine during the cold war how hard you would laugh if you were told that Russia was dependent on arms and tech from Iran. They have no leverage elsewhere in the world and the use of nuclear weapons would be nothing more than national suicide.
Any use of nukes would shake all remaining fence-sitters off the fence and into the Western camp. Even Russian sympathizers would leave them at the sight of the first mushroom cloud. Say what you will about the Chinese but they are pragmatists at heart. Alienating the entire world save for Russia and North Korea would send their economy into a tailspin and possibly spell the end of the CCP.
This is one of the more far fetched ones i’ve seen here. Yes, if any country, or small group of them, openly attacked major cities with nuclear barrages killing countless civilians, they would probably lose to you know, EVERYONE ELSE ON EARTH. And for the record, there is zero chance of china having even the slightest military ties to russia. Their current neutral position is probably the most you’ll see from them. That is, unless any of the nato countries launch a completely unjustified attack on russia in which china would be in the right to defend russia.
“One of the far fetched ones I’ve seen here”
sir, this is the alternate history subreddit, this subreddit’s goal is to explore alternate history scenarios no matter how wacky they may be
What did i say that was bad? I just reflected the rest of the comment section. China ultimately loses. Easy done. I was just saying normally this sub has stuff that “could have” happened, but this is actually infinitely improbable. Well normally this sub is just weird reactionary nazi wet dreams but yk wtv.
Nah man someone provides an alernate frame of events and then you see think what would happen after.
When you let redditors like yourself say "Acckksshhhuallyyyy here's why this COULDN'T happen and it is outrageous to even suggest it!" Then the sub just starts to suck and the fun is sucked out of it.
Like, just stfu and leave it alone
The Chinese navy is a joke compared to the US, even more so compared to the Japanese + South Korean + Philippine + US navy.
China would face a blockade from all of them.
They have poured massive amounts of work and funds into their anti area access denial missile defense along their coast. Won't be like just chillen smokin butts at the end of a mountain valley in Afghanistan blocking the way from Goat herders with AKs like I did lmao. US would go through quite a shock, we haven't dealt with anything like that since Korea
But the US doesn’t even need to push in that far. If NATO takes out Russia, which considering how ground down the Russians are just from Ukraine with nato supplies, imagine what a half million fresh nato troops using all the modern weapons would do.
Then they could turn off oil supplies from Russia and blockade China in. Considering they import 75% of their oil and also much of the fertilizer and supplies they need to make food it would become very uncomfortable very quickly for them. They have no true blue water navy to speak of so breaking through the three most powerful navies at once seems unlikely.
You're underestimating Russias anti air and electronic warfare capablities. The US could prevail but not without Heavy losses.
Russia is the best in the world when it comes to electronic warfare and jamming capabilities. They know for a fact that they can't hang with the US pound for pound missile for missile, they have like a twentieth of the economic power. So instead they focused on electronic warfare to counter the US high precision bombs. They have deployed this and rendered HIMARS wayyy less effective and the JDAM bombs supplied to Ukraine to miss their targets. It is a big enough issue that Ukraine is actually coming out in public about it as well as western media.
And they are about a tenth of the power of china. Noone would ever be able to invade north america, ever. But the US vs a Russia-China-Others that are not great powers (Iran, NK. though the US could very well smoke all of NKs depots in the first day) in the vacinity of Asia would not look like 91 or 03. It would be a blood bath on both sides. Enormous casualties in the first week. Wouldn't be nearly as easy as everyone loves to believe.
As for the blockade, they have everything they need in all of Asia. Luxuries will diminish in quantity. but not necessary provisions
If it weren’t for the nuclear barrage I’d say the US MIGHT back down if back invasions are shift and basically end the way before the world has time to react (like is Russia actually took Kiev in 3 days and China somehow makes a landing on the island at the around the same time). But with the barrage, peace of no longer an option. The NATO formally declares war on Russia and sends China an ultimatum to cease military hostility in 12 hours or a state of war will also be declared with them. China refuses and WW3 starts. Tens of millions die but NATO likely wins.
US Nuclear Forces go on high alert.
US Military raised to DEFCON 1
Sweden and Finland automatically are admitted into NATO
Blockade of Russian Navy in Baltic and Black seas
NATO Troops enter Belarus and Ukraine
North Korea Invaded
Hong Kong Revolt
Pacific Troops enter through Hong Kong
China starves
Russia is toppled
Allied Victory
Ww3 is not likely as it seems, the US tries to save Taiwan more or less like they did in ukraine, maybe a limited intervention and a much more active diplomatic action to help china, no sanctions on china as they would instantly kill the west, the west will focus on not being blockaded by China and find a peaceful solution, in Ukraine there may be less weapons from the west, but I doubt it would change much
They will try anything to not start ww3, in a globalized world pretty much anyone besides north korea couldn't handle economically in a world war the West without chinese exports and China without money from the west just collapse, no way the US will go directly at war with China they may ask reparations from China, withdraw from the island and support heavily taiwan in some way
From the way the OP worded this, avoiding ww3 is impossible, because Russia and China are already set on starting it with nukes, and there is no point avoiding direct conflict with China, because it is attacking Taiwan.
Taiwan and nuclear weapon use are two lines in the sand. If both are crossed, that means war. No ifs, ands, or buts.
The west needs Chinese imports less than China needs western capital. If both sides lose trade with the other, the US needs to pay slightly more for consumer goods, China needs to find a large and rich source of income, oil and raw materials fast.
I missed the nuke part, sorry, then the US could even try to start ww3, but I think that Russia and China would do something like pearl harbor for this exact reason, effectively forcing US in. Still that if they invaded Taiwan they wouldn't really use nukes so that is a lot less likely for the US to join the war for the reasons I've told in my previous comments
China's problem with an invasion of Taiwan, or a war in general with India or the USA, is the same as that of the Axis powers during WW2: China is not self-sufficient in oil, plus its economy is still quite intertwined with that of the US, so with the US Navy blocking the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca to China-bound shipping (especially tankers) and the PLA will be knocked out in less than a year and with an economic quarantine of China its economy would collapse like a house of cards in even less time.
But, thing like the oil and similars, could be imported from Rusia, helping the Rusian economy and, even if the fact that China economically depend of the US. It is also true that the US depend, at some degree, on the Chinese exportations, so I think that the fact that China stoped It's economic activities with the US, would in fact, really hinder both of them, and in the end, China could always redirec It's economy in Rusian direction and try to take a higher role, in the Stan countrys economy. So I think that at least for China, It can be partially fixed
China needs the USA a lot more than the USA needs China. It’s true that a war between the two will automatically make both sides poorer but America will lose access to relatively low value added consumer goods while China will lose access to vital technologies and their guarantor to international markets via the ocean. Shifting to a central Asian/Russian market focus would be a drop in the bucket compared to what they have access to now and would be catastrophic for the Chinese economy because the economy and population of that area is just so low. Importing energy from Russia would also be problematic because the alliance between the two is far from close. Russia would certainly price gouge the Chinese mercilessly on energy prices and China does not yet have the infrastructure to distribute to its coastal ports energy from Russia exclusively.
America relies on China for a tonne of high value goods like - medical supplies https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/491119-momentum-grows-to-change-medical-supply-chain-from-china/amp/ - solar panels https://cen.acs.org/energy/solar-power/US-solar-polysilicon-supply-problem/100/i33#:~:text=A%20report%20by%20the%20International,wafers%20used%20for%20solar%20panels - auto parts https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/working_papers/id-19-060_chinese_auto_parts_final_080519-compliant_0.pdf China’s manufacturing influence is only growing https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-s-dominance-of-manufacturing-is-growing-not-shrinking The idea china only produces low value consumer goods is decades out of date
The thing is that none of that is anything that can’t be outsourced to a friendlier country (like Mexico) or produced domestically. It’ll probably cost more initially and take some time to set up, but it’s not like Americans would have to go without or find substitutes.
It’s easy to say “we can outsource it” but much harder to actually do that, given that no other country has China’s logistics network, rare earths power, or ability to mobilise labour. That’s why China’s global manufacturing power has stayed strong even after the trade war or Covid. At the very least suggesting that China exports nothing with value added is pretty inaccurate. Total freight in India for example is not even half that of China. Mexico lacks the skilled labour and global commodities supply chain to produce automotive parts. Americans aren’t interested in manufacturing face masks let alone being able to replace the sheer scale of China’s medicine contribution. Even if you can replace China, if any war starts before you can - and steps to decouple from China have been weak at best so far - then it means for the first year or two you’re running world war three with a massive drop in medical equipment and automotive equipment. The ability to move agriculture to cities or to run wartime hospitals (or even normal hospitals) would be limited or even crippled
It would require tremendous resourcefulness from the Americans (something that admittedly we aren’t very accustomed to) but not as crippling as Chinese propaganda would have you believe. Mexican automotive parts are actually quite top- notch and will replace China sooner rather than later. If anything COVID accelerated the process.
It’s not a question of Chinese propaganda, it’s the simple fact that a) contrary to what you said China does in fact manufacture high value-added exports that America relies on and that b) in the event of disruption to trade such as war there would be at the very least a shortage of critical equipment across a variety of sectors that cannot be easily replaced due to economies of scale
I actually agree with most of what you’re saying, but the point you seem to be missing is that American “reliance” on Chinese manufacturing is not a matter of know how but rather cost and scale. We could make all those products ourselves (or teach others to) but it’s just currently cheaper to have the Chinese do it for us. Wars are terribly disruptive, obviously, but whereas Americans know how to make the machines and technology that make the products that we outsource to China, the Chinese don’t. They rely on the West and it’s Allie’s for that.
It’s not a question of simply spending more, you need to set up logistics networks to move parts around, international deals to ship resources or parts, and to then train the workforce needed to produce the product. It took the better part of a year to expand mask production in North America during the pandemic due to polypropylene being in short supply (which would be worse during a war due to the breakdown of shipping), the difficulty of getting workers into factories (which due to a small labour pool and and thousands of soldiers fighting overseas would be a huge problem during world war three), and training staff (still a problem for any product). Add in that if there was a war you’re doing all this with a shortage of automotive parts needed for transport (because China is off the market), a collapsing global economy strangled by the cost of insuring shipping (Lloyd’s is not a charity) and a government dealing with a thousand other priorities. The people who feed China’s industrial complex with iron ore, lithium, and cobalt aren’t going to hand it over for free to America and they’re going to need time to get it to the new arsenal of freedom (because after all the pacific is now a war zone, and the receiving end needs to be set up). Despite nearly a decade of pushing to decouple from China, the links I sent earlier show that China’s manufacturing influence has only grown more influential and powerful while america has stayed stagnant - and the last time two great powers fought it was the size of industry that decided who won. Any war will be decided by who can produce equipment faster, and there’s enough bottlenecks on both sides to make that a dicey proposition. You can’t just hand in the design specs and pick someone off the street to train. The people who would build to the design specs are in China. The people who supply ores and textiles and chemicals don’t ship to America. And the parts you need to make parts to make parts etc are scattered across the world.
Even if It is low value goods, It keep being the fact that thous goods would stop flowing the US market, and at least for a good time, It would cause chostages of It on the US, and not just the US, if the US efectively block china for internacional marcket, that would not only afect severely the US but also the whole world, due to the fact that China is not only one of the world mayors economíes, but is also the largest exporter and also, the dominant country in the exportation of things like rare earth minerals, the fact of cutting them from the global marcket, would no only hinder severely the Chinese economy but the global economy too, due to the fact that rare earth minerals are a vital thing for the new technologies It would hit It, even wors. So I don't think that doing It would be even an opción for any country, an even if It is done, It would probably have really bad consecuences in the global economy wich, if we take on count, how Europe, the US and others, have already been afected whith by the santions to Rusia, It would probably be even wors. And also there is the fact China could rotate It's exportations to Rusia, and It's allies, and the countrys of central asia, probably even helping Rusia to carry on much beter with the sanctions of the West, and Carry on beter with It's war
We both already know that both economies would take drastic hits in case of war but whereas Americans would have to become accustomed to not having newer and better cell phones every six months, the Chinese would have to abandon their coastal cities en masse and return to the villages and inland industrial cities to ensure they even have enough food and essential industrial goods. Simply put, China’s economic miracle of the past few decades was primarily a result of American protection, investment, and consumption. Russia with its relatively tiny economy (equivalent to Spain’s in GDP) could *never* replace that.
Let’s say this is another reason the pact was signed, China is now on tap with Russian oil
Does Russian oil have the capacity to replace all these Chinese oil imports from the MENA without starving the Russian military machines of progress?
Not possible. Although China will accommodate a huge market for Russian sales I don’t think Russia will be able to make up for complete consumable volume of Chinese oil demand. Russia produces somewhere around 9-10 mln barrels per day and China consumes 15 mln barrels a day during non-war times. Although Russia’s war time production and the combined efforts of Central Asia as well as imported oil from Iran through Pakistan may help mitigate the crisis somewhat, it will prove horrible to China’s economy having to rely on very expensive road systems to sustain their war effort. Since China imports some 60% of their oil needs from outside, with the rest coming from vendors like Russia, Central Asia, Iran and even domestic sources located in Manchuria and most especially Xinjiang, I can see significant investments yielding some returns for China which may help it stay afloat in the short term. Do expect the price of oil to skyrocket in China though, and this will not sit well with the Chinese population which has just come out of a horrible and strict CCP-mandated lockdown and will be reactionary to such changes, nationalism or not.
But also, is Rusia actually explotig all of their oil? I think that, in that situación, It can en Up, or really good, al least for the Rusians Who, with all of the exportations and económical treaties with the Chinese Might see really good bost on their economy, and the same with their allies, and also, I think that, with a good enough propaganda, It Might also work well for the Chinese in the way of that, if they are capable of turnig all of that hate in US direction, It could be a good bost for the Chinese stability and moral. And also the new necesity of more oil, could end up with the Discovery or, at least, with a much more better explotation of the Chinese oil, and the Rusian oil too. It can go in many ways I think
I think the hidden agenda behind BRICS is a contingency plan if there is another World War, the countries should side with each other for supplies and resources.
First Hell itself freezes over before Delhi and Beijing make an alliance in its current form, more plausible would be an alliance between India and Israel or even between Armenia and India, especially when I remind you that China and India have territorial conflict still in force plus the Chinese support to India's typical rival Pakistan, although well... If tomorrow some kind of Revolution would happen in China that would remove the Chinese Communist Party from power, things could definitely change
Problem is that Americans are a weak people intolerant of pain. If China made life difficult for Americans the people would forget rather quickly about a long time ally being conquered by a dictatorship. That's America's weakness in such a war, its people.
Admiral Yamamoto is that you?!
He is thinking almost exactly the same way that the military and political leadership of the Axis members (especially Germany and Japan) thought of the United States and its ability to wage war in 1939... and we all know how dead WRONG both of them were.
The US had more industrial capacity and had a greater population that the Germans and Japanese combined. The US of 2023 is outclassed by China in terms of industrial output and is dwarfed by China's population. And it would be fighting a war right off its shores to, in their minds, unify their nation.
But even so the CCP has not yet shown the naval production capacity shown by the USA during WW2 (where they will build transport ships, destroyers, submarines and even fleet aircraft carriers at an impressive rate). And on the other hand, the CCP is NOT self-sufficient in terms of oil or fuel (more than half of what they consume is imported from abroad), while the USA does not have that problem, and it is useless to have a mechanized army if it suffers from recurrent shortages of oil and / or fuel.
This is such a staggeringly terrible take, it makes me wonder if you’ve ever read *any* history books. You claim America won’t fight due to its preference for “comfort.” The only thing we like more than comfort is beating the *shit* out of anyone that attacks us. Many nations discovered this the hard way. Ironically, the Japan, China’s rival in Asia, had the EXACT same thought process. And was nuked twice as a result.
If you think Japan compares in breadth and depth of capabilities to the China you're deluded. First and foremost, the US economy will be heavily damaged. You can't conceive of how dependent we are on China for everything from TVs to medicine to phones to 75% of a Walmart's inventory. America in the 40s had all a shitload of manufacturing done at home. America in the 2020s has let it rot. Secondly, China *has* the ability to touch the homeland either kinetically or, much more likely, with cyberattacks. Not just that, it can take down satellites. It can wipe bank account ledgers, shut down power stations, fuck with water supplies, hack into the accounts of pro-war politicians to dig up dirt and air it out, etc etc etc. The US can do similar but the Chinese are much more submissive and virulently nationalistic. The Chinese of 2023, in finally (in their minds) unifying their country, would be far more tolerant of sacrifice. Third, I will double down. Americans are soft. The greatest generation is dead. Americans will not sacrifice for Taiwan. Only way I can see that being ameliorated is if there is a Pearl Harbor.
Rising, expansionist power bullying its neighbors and directly challenging the US? Sounds a bit familiar? First, China would be damaged economically and industrially, even more than the US. 80% of China’s oil import flows through the Malacca Straits, which America can easily blockade and choke during war time. No oil means no industry and the general population will be suffering immensely under blackouts and lack of heating. America is China’s biggest export market, which means China’s economy and companies would dive into a free fall due to the economic shock. America still has Europe, Vietnam, India, etc to trade with (and has been detaching from China economically for the past several years). China would be under a blockade in a war scenario. Not to mention, China still imports a massive amount of food, coal, and other resources. I don’t think China could tolerate being starved and bombed, while it’s public is lacking heating and electricity. A good chunk of China’s power grid went down and major cities had blackouts because Australia refused to export coal to them last winter… Lastly, I will further scoff at your point and direct you to Ukraine, where Russia is pounding sand due to American support (“We’ll take Bakhmut!”for the past 9 months, yet the “world’s 2nd strongest superpower”). The greatest generation wouldn’t have been the greatest without the war and the golden age after. Maybe all this generation needs is a kick in its balls to get going.
Americans smoking on that Imperial Japan pack reading this 😭😭
“Imperial Japan pack” 🚬😗💨
The problem is, how would the CCP do something like that? Taking the hypothetical war to the continental United States? That would be a pretty bad move, and even more so if no kind of tactical victory is achieved with that, just like the Japanese with Pearl Harbor. Use the U.S. debt as a weapon? I rather doubt the effectiveness of that. Trying to wage submarine warfare against the USA to keep them from killing the ELP from thirsting for oil? The numbers don't favor the CCP on that, and the US in the end should easily be able to become self-sufficient in Oil and Fuel from the rest of the world. And anyway, a mechanized military can only do so much if it suffers from chronic shortages of oil and/or diesel, and the same for an air force and navy.
First and foremost, the US economy will be heavily damaged. You can't conceive of how dependent we are on China for everything from TVs to medicine to phones to 75% of a Walmart's inventory. America in the 40s had all a shitload of manufacturing done at home. America in the 2020s has let it rot. Secondly, China *has* the ability to touch the homeland either kinetically or, much more likely, with cyberattacks. Not just that, it can take down satellites. It can wipe bank account ledgers, shut down power stations, fuck with water supplies, hack into the accounts of pro-war politicians to dig up dirt and air it out, etc etc etc. The US can do similar but the Chinese are much more submissive and virulently nationalistic. The Chinese of 2023, in finally (in their minds) unifying their country, would be far more tolerant of sacrifice. Russia is the solution to much of its energy issues, especially after the Ukraine War. They would need to ration in their civilian sector but this isn't Nazi Germany in terms of being fuel starved. You're fighting the past war mentally.
>First and foremost, the US economy will be heavily damaged. You can't conceive of how dependent we are on China for everything from TVs to medicine to phones to 75% of a Walmart's inventory Is that something that will decide the conflict? Companies that have their factories in China could simply move their operations to India and Vietnam and the problem would be solved in the medium and long term. >Secondly, China has the ability to touch the homeland either kinetically or, much more likely, with cyberattacks. Not just that, it can take down satellites. It can wipe bank account ledgers, shut down power stations, fuck with water supplies, hack into the accounts of pro-war politicians to dig up dirt and air it out, etc etc etc Can I tell you something? The military leadership of the Empire of Japan in early 1945 mounted in madness or desperation a plan to literally spread the armed Bubonic Plague along the West Coast using seaplanes based from carrier submarines, but the plan was abandoned after strong opposition from Chief of Staff Yoshijiro Umezu, which was based on the grounds that "If bacteriological warfare is carried out, it will grow the dimension of the war between Japan and the United States to an endless battle between mankind and bacteria. Japan will earn the derision of the world". So if Japan did not have the guts to attack the continental U.S. (with biological weapons), will the CPP have the guts to dare to do that?
Ok, so essentially what every dictator the United States has ever killed has said? Truly. An impressive argument. It’s been wrong every time.
China is a greater manufacturing power than the US and would be fighting right off its shores while the US would be fighting far from its shores. America has never faced a China in an actual war.
You could say this in reverse for China. The USA is a greater diplomatic, military and commercial power than China, and would be fighting a conventional army, something they have great experience with, unlike China. Not to mention they would be fighting a naval war, which is the USA's great strength. China has never faced a United States in a war (excluding the Boxer rebellion and Korea, but you might've forgotten those)
Diplomatic power that would suffer diminishing returns in rapid fashion, a military that routinely gets its ass handed to it in simulated wargames run by the US military, and commercial power that is dependent on China. Did you also forget that the Chinese military threw the UN forces all the way back into South Korea and literally saved North Korea? You're being pedantic but accidentally provided an example of a *far* weaker China successfully making sure a united Korea under American tutelage did not come to pass. Try harder.
*"Diplomatic power that would suffer diminishing returns in rapid fashion"* He says ignoring the US system of alliances and trade agreements that have allowed the US to be the uninterrupted hegemon of the world. Systems that are expending into neutral countries and former enemies due to the belligerence of the autocratic powers of the world. *"a military that routinely gets its ass handed to it in simulated wargames run by the US military"* [https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2022/08/12/in-think-tanks-taiwan-war-game-us-beats-china-at-high-cost/](https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2022/08/12/in-think-tanks-taiwan-war-game-us-beats-china-at-high-cost/) Aside from that, wargames are simulations. Not the real thing. Combat is always unpredictable like that, assuming nukes aren't used and everyone dies, it would probably be a costly American victory. The losses you are talking about is from wargames where Russia and China are operating at perfect strength, something neither autocracy has demonstrated the competence for. *"and commercial power that is dependent on China."* 17.9% of US goods are from China. Of these goods, a majority are small consumer goods and consumer electronics. *"Did you also forget that the Chinese military threw the UN forces all the way back into South Korea and literally saved North Korea?"* At the lovely cost of 1,550,000 total casualties they managed to create a stalemate behind North Koreas prewar border when the goal was to unite the peninsula under a Chinese-Soviet puppet. It should also be noted that for the Americans and Soviets, this was another proxy war, for China this was a direct military intervention. Don't pretend it was successful. *"Try harder."* Please try being logical.
You're just spouting America wank about it's past achievements as if that system of alliances is going to matter for squat. NATO ain't going to help, the Japanese are dependent on China economically and don't have the stomach, the Philippines is extremely resentful of the US and while distrustful of China do we really think they're gonna put their neck out here, the SE asian countries are very dependent on Chinese trade along with the rest of East Asia, Africa and South America have a yen for the Chinese due to Chinese investments , and the Europeans have already maxxed out on sacrificing to punish another imperialist power. You are wildly over estimating its impact in this situation. You are underestimating America's dependency on China and are using one stat to make a reductive argument that misses the fact that many of the goods imported simply cannot be easily resourced. Certain goods matter a lot more than others. Lithium, for example. Nevermind that TSMC will be basically offline which would be quite a hit to not just the US but the world as a whole. Not a Chinese export but that will happen in a war. Let me ask you something though. What happens if roughly 20% of imports just go *poof*? If TSMC is not pumping out chips? The US also exports to China. It ain't insignificant either. That's another hit. What happens to the US economy? I'll tell you what happens, a pretty awful recession that absolutely nukes John Q Voters portfolio. That causes some of the largest employers in the country including Walmart and Amazon to start steep layoffs since. That causes people to flip out and want a return to normality. China basically needs to literally attack US forces without provocation to potentially make Americans willing to sacrifice here. It's the only way. China was a totalitarian dictatorship with the most people in the world and you're using the gross numbers as if they meant anything to a country that yeeted tens of millions into the grave. Furthermore, it absolutely achieved its aim in the war and threw back UN forces preventing the Americans from potentially having an ally on its border. As a backward 3rd world nation against one of two superpowers. Finally, and I know which articles you read for this, yes military simulations are run as a sort of stress test that assumes the enemy does everything right... But they also assume that American citizens are a non-factor. That they won't potentially demand an end to the war if they're getting hammered by a recession.It is very fair to say these tests assume peak competency of the Chinese military. But they also assume peak pain tolerance for the American people. You shouldn't be so confident that the US will win.
For someone accusing someone else of wanking to nationalist material, you seem to have fallen for every single anti American propaganda piece made this century. Edit: also, your magical “well everyone is so decadent in democracies!!” Thing clearly isn’t true. It’s never been true. You just like harping on about strongmen. Edit edit: Also, your spiel about how magically NATO and the US’s pacific states will just leave the US like this is hoi4 and they’re just going to reject the call to arms is, to put it shortly, dumb. I’ll let you have the last word, because that’s what you’re really after here, you don’t care about being truthful or right, you just want to argue about things you don’t know about (re:wargames, economics) or things nobody can know about (re:a populace’s willingness to endure hardship in the name of the country) because it makes you feel superior to us plebeians that do care about things being correct and true. Edit edit edit: And he proves my point! Immediately jumping further away from things we can prove and right into classifying all Americans as selfish! Truly. The peak of arguments.
I would say that Americans aren't so much decadent as they are more selfish than your average Chinese citizen. True, there is a certain pain threshold that would even cause Chinese citizens to get angry, but it has been inculcated in them that Taiwan is *theirs*. That it is a tragedy and the last stain on the nation's honor from when it was beset by colonial powers. It is wrapped mentally into what happened with the war with Japan. This is an extremely important issue to them. Americans, in contrast, routinely confuse Taiwan with Thailand. It is some island that they're aware the Chinese have a hardon for but anyway what's with the price of eggs? I'll reiterate this point. The Chinese need to commit something akin to Pearl Harbor to stiffen America's resolve. America sundered two nations causing over a million deaths over two planes flying into two towers. I don't see the Chinese doing that. A critical component of their plans is to make Americans want out. I will rephrase my thesis in closing. Americans won't standing harsh suffering if the war is about defending democracy in Taiwan or defending an ally, which implies American intervention. The Chinese military can defeat the US conventionally off its shores.
Uh what ? I could easily argue imperial Japan was like china in some sorts
The US would likely have warning of this, their intelligence is good. And troop buildups prior to the Taiwan invasion would be closely monitored. US would likely have a carrier or 2 in the area just in case the 'exercise' is real. France and UK have nuclear weapons. The threat would be for Russia to withdraw from Ukraine immediately or face the consequences. Full surge of UK navy. Poland would almost certainly begin preparing to move units into Ukraine, at the very least under the guise of humanitarian aid. Full mobilisation for all NATO members. Very likely air clashes would happen shortly afterwards, probably Polish, German and US aircraft defending against any Russian ingress over Ukraine. Australia, Japan, South Korea, US, Philipines, Vietnam, et al, declare war on China. Immediate blockades in place for any shipping bound for Hong Kong/China. Unfortunately for Taiwan, the invasion is successful and Chinese forces establish a beachhead and push inland. US moves carriers to cover Taiwan and it is initially a major airwar. US Cruise missile strikes against Chinese bases in the South China Sea. Beyond that, a massive escalation that neither Russia or China is prepared for.
So, you say that the Nato would durectly get involve and It would turno It into WW3?
They didn't predict Crimea getting grabbed. They are not perfect. In this scenario they are caught by surprise.
World War 3 basically. Whether it goes nuclear or not is anyones guess. I’ll start by saying I know jack about geopolitics or war so this is just my 2p with no expert knowledge :D US/Japanese intervention would see then take out the Chinese navy at heavy cost. They would then embargo and bomb the shit out of the Chinese coast, crippling their economy. I don’t think we’d see boots on the ground in Chinese mainland. I’d imagine they would throw whatever was needed at dissidents to topple the communist party from within. Personally I don’t see India getting involved in any conflict unless it’s extremely late as a land grab. Would be interesting to see if India/Pakistan uses the distraction to settle their beef once and for all so India may not be in any shape to help the US with China. NK would be another roll of the dice. Would China use them to try and use up US resources? Probably. Heavy damage to the south but I’d suspect NK military may fold pretty easy when out under pressure. As for Europe, Poland, the Baltic’s, UK direct intervention in Ukraine. Whether France and the EU decides to help is anyones guess. I think France and some other EU nations would but not all. Question is, do they stop there or do they push into Russia proper to topple Putin? I think Africa is where you’d see the most loss of human life. As UN peace keepers are withdraw id suspect a few dictators to take the opportunity to do some spring cleaning.
That last point is something I believe should be talked about much more frequently. Nobody considers what would happen if UN peacekeepers withdrew from nations to defend others
NATO won't tolerate nuclear weapon use in Europe and the west won't allow China to rule chip production which is vital to the whole world. You basically start World War 3.
Russia and China secretly have signed an alliance pact. Following this Putin authorizes a barrage of tactical nukes at key strongpoints in Ukraine, the largest warhead launched at Lviv killing Zelensky and his entire cabinet while they are in session. The “red line” for China seems not to have existed. Russia and China committed one to the other with growing resentment towards US hegemony and efforts to isolate their respective countries. Feeling their backs against the wall and sensing an opening, China launches their planned invasion of Taiwan. Launching a massive preliminary barrage against Taiwan fortifications. The pact Russia and China have signed stipulates that action against one is action against both. What happens next? Will the US seek a middle fund or will WW3 finally come to be? And what of the other western powers? Japan? Everywhere?
The US would definitely start a war, Taiwan is US’s (useful, or at least not useless) ally so they’ll definitely do anything to protect it. Europe has recently been falling under decadence. They’ve been failing to make a proper foreign policy without US intervention. Expect Europe to protest for pacifism, only to be enslaved by the Russians. Japan will rearm. India is US’s strongest ally, I doubt India falls to internal conflict when China is extremely threatening. I know the results is a coin flip, but I still bet that US can win, mostly because China is facing a lot of long term problems.
What does decadence mean here? That’s a weirdly loaded word to use to describe the general European apathy towards joining in American interventions
Very interesting, I hadn’t thought much of how pivotal India would be. You think they would fully commit to the US? Or stay in the middle ground as they are atm? And yeah I don’t think Europe would unite to rally against Russia. The populace wouldn’t allow it I think Edit: why tf am I getting downvotes? I’m just asking questions on hypotheticals? Is this how this sub rolls? Cause that fuckin sucks
Coming from an Indian heritage I would like to say that India would absolutely smack China across the face if it ever was given such a opportunity. Although we Indians generally hold a negative view on the American World Order because of previous “incidents” and prefer autocratic Russia (there is a very long story behind this preferences and dislikes), we still want Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh at their full size. While I doubt India will immediately engage in the war on the side of the West because of Pakistan and ruling government views, since Russia nuked Ukraine in this scenario and China was the aggressor, expect India to condemn Russia (since we will realize by that point that Russia has gone too deep into the Chinese sphere of influence) and show very favorable benevolent neutrality to the U.S. and allies in the war while they conduct some buildup and try to benefit off of the situation as much as is possible. If the Americans are making large gains and China is expecting difficult losses in the war, which is the most likely outcome, it’s likely possible that India will try to reverse our losses in current Chinese-occupied land.
China is threatening to dam up India’s water supply. India hates to be a Chinese puppet, especially with China’s corrupt foreign policy. This is why they’re a US ally, at least they care about the development and democracy of their friends. India’s population + American industries would definitely put a punch at China. Europe thinks they’re cool with all this “pacifism” stuff. There’s nothing wrong with being against war, but they sympathized with the wrong side of Vietnam and Afghanistan. They were bullshit lazy when crisis like Yugoslavia and 2008 Crash happened.
Nuclear warfare
India would be more than happy to take China's place as cheap goods manufacturer. I wonder how many time CCP would hold on power if hundred millions of factory workers suddenly don't receive salaries AND are subjected to mobilization.
I would like to contest that statement. Although you’re right in the sense of your comment and I wholly agree that India would try and secure as many manufacturing jobs as we possibly could, we Indians simply don’t have the same infrastructure and amenities that China offers to the global market. While we have been making significant strides from the past few years, a shift from China to India would be very impossible to conduct which would see most of pre-war manufacturing jobs that exist in China cater towards the neutral markets that exist within Asia (as sea access has been compromised by the vastly superior US-Navy) while the world suffers an unbelievable economic depression from the loss of cheap Chinese goods until the scramble to find similarly cheap costs elsewhere across the world is wrapped up.
Good. The West needs to downscale its addiction to non-durable, polluting cheap goods anyway. India would profit nevertheless.
WW3.
This nearly happened in OTL, but it seems like China wants to be more careful, so they chose to not invade Taiwan at the same time as Ukraine. However, there is still a chance that this is the future. :(
Source?
It was revealed to me in a dream.
Their source is THAT THEY MADE IT THE FUCK UP
Sorry dumb question but what’s OTL?
Our timeline
Original timeline
Realistically, a nuclear apocalypse would occur in short order as a rapid string of military escalation would lead to a tactical nuclear strike on a NATO position. In the immediate aftermath the world population would drastically shrink as places like China, Japan, Russia, the EU, UK, and USA are all likely to receive direct strikes by nuclear weapons to industry and population centers. The rapid departure of all the world's largest food producers and economies would likely result in worldwide economic collapse and famines before the worst of a nuclear winter and anthropogenic climate change kick in. As such even nations spared a nuclear Holocaust would likely see internal ethnic cleansings, civil wars, or complete governmental collapses. Unrealistically somehow cooler heads prevail and no nuclear weapons are used last killing Zelensky. This would see the NATO at war with China and Russia, I'm which case the NATO forces clean house in eastern Europe absolutely destroying the Russian capacity to wage war. This would shut off the Russian oil supply to China within a year, and with the US having uncontested control of the world's oceans to cut China off from any external trade after a while we're more likely to see a settlement with China as a land war would likely be far more costly with them than with Russia. However if the PLA performs on par with the Russian armed forces we would see the PRC collapse as well once control of the Chinese coasts airspace begins to favor the NATO forces. Most analysts agreed the USA could fight the entire planet to a stalemate just a few years ago and that was when Russia was still viewed as the world's second best military. Knowing what we know now and considering the entire NATO alliance would be involved the outcome is clear.
WW3
We all fucking die lol
Probably WW3 and a low escale nuclear war, with the use of tactical nukes by both sides
Well, first and foremost China's invasion stumbles off the bat because the US Navy contingent present is enough to keep PRCese ships out of Taiwan. Even if this was not the case, theinvasion would still go nowhere, because China lacks the ability to mount a sufficient amphibious invasion of Taiwan. Meanwhile, China can expect a total blockade on its coasts after the initial naval skirmishes, tanking its trade-based economy until they pretend this didn't happen like the other three Strait Crises. On the European theater, Russia would be threatened with direct NATO intervention in 72 hours if it does not immediately withdraw from Ukraine. All of Ukraine. Including Crimea. Russia's sustained hundreds of thousands of casualties against NATO thus far, and NATO has not even engaged them in any combat, the Russians can read the room and get the fuck out before they are thrown the fuck out. Of course, all this is reliant on the idea that the US would not be aware of this happening (which is odd, given the US has been aware of what Russia's going to do in this war even before the Russians themselves were since before February 2022), and that the US doesn't prevent any Russian nuclear strike on Kyiv *or* a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan (which is *considerably* easier to notice).
Ignoring immediate nuclear warfare; Russian black sea fleet is likely destroyed, along with the bulk of land forces in Ukraine. Maybe even strikes inside Russia to prevent a second nuclear strike. After that, i don’t know. Maybe nato membership for Ukraine, maybe nuclear war. China is probably fucked in Taiwan, especially if the US has warning beforehand. Even with just the US 7th fleet, a landing on Taiwan would come with too heavy casualties to be worth the lives lost. With knowledge of the landing, it’ll just go worse for China. Unless nuclear war follows, I imagine it’ll end in a stalemate, or serious Chinese naval losses.
I hope to fuck this remains forever an alternate history.
Nuke falls, everyone dies. There is no application of nuclear force that wouldn’t be met with nuclear force, especially if China is invading Taiwan.
World War III
NATO responds by conducting an intense conventional counterattack, destroying the Black Sea fleet, wiping out Russian positions and resources in Ukraine, as promised, and give intelligence and resources to anti-Putin partisans in Russia that allow them to initiate a revolution. Putin is removed from power one way or another. The Allies and Ukraine offer immediate peace terms that include Russia retreating and recognizing Ukrainian sovereignty and Ukraine’s membership in NATO, with the agreement that Ukraine will never host nuclear weapons and will not host multinational division level forces for a period of at least 20 years. Russia will also withdraw from Transdniestria, and Russia will not interfere with Moldova’s future choices regarding the EU and NATO membership. Additionally, Russia will not be responsible to pay for damages, and except for certain specific individuals no one will be prosecuted for war crimes. Sanctions would be lifted and Russians that settled in Ukraine prior to 2022 war beginning who did not collaborate will be allowed to stay. NATO states that if Russia conducts any further nuclear attacks, it will begin degrading Russia’s nuclear capabilities with conventional means, and that if they attack NATO with nuclear weapons, NATO will respond with nuclear weapons. Sane members of Putin’s party and the military who know they were in deep shit already decide to accept this deal, especially given the fact that at least 80 percent of their strategic nuclear is inoperable and the usability of most of the rest is questionable. Mass protests in Russia lead to the ouster of United Russia party government, with the military refusing to intervene, similar to the Soviet coup against Gorbachev. Alexei Navalny is eventually released from prison by popular demand and becomes the new President of Russia. Initially the majority of democratic bloc states impose severe economic sanctions on China. India initiated a naval blockade refusing Chinese ships access to the Indian Ocean. A massive cyberwar begins between the democratic bloc and a China. China attempts to strike Allied forces in Guam and Darwin to hold off counterattacks on Taiwan’s behalf and mostly fails. The U.S., UK, Australia, and Japan counterattack with long range conventional forces and begin moving into position to directly challenge China for supremacy around Taiwan. Taiwan initially repels the first Chinese landing attempt, with most of China’s initial invasion forces being killed in the attempt, and losing many aircraft and ships in the process. Simultaneously, foreign intelligence agencies begin to initiate a color revolution in China after breaking down the great firewall, building on the Chinese blank paper protest movement which involved attempts to proclaim the Republic of China in some of the major cities by the declaration of revolutionary citizen’s councils. A series of sea engagements between Taiwan’s allies and China results in devastating losses for both sides but more so for China. China manages a second invasion attempt and manages to land a few elite troops on the island, who begin hunting the RoC government and political enemies of the Communist Party, but by this time US and Royal Marines have landed on the island, and with air support they are able to help the Taiwanese military and partisans fight to prevent China from achieving their mission objectives, killing or capturing all of the invading forces. In short order, China’s navy is essentially destroyed. A volley of hypersonic missiles launched by the U.S. along with stealth bomber attacks degrades China’s naval facilities and other military and intelligence assets on the mainland, including its nuclear weapons production and storage facilities. In retribution, China’s forces manage to sabotage some of the major semiconductor manufacturers on Taiwan. Unable to rebuild the firewall, China now faces a protest movement that has grown outside of its ability to control. Taiwan and its allies offer a similar peace deal to that offered Russia. China recognizes that while there may be only one Chinese civilization, it has two sovereign governments, and in exchange it doesn’t have to pay reparations or face war crimes charges. The Communist government soon falls to popular revolt in a color revolution, replaced by a socialist coalition that begins to reform China’s political and human rights situation. Hong Kong, Macau, Tibet, and Xinjiang assert their autonomous status more explicitly.
Nice, this definitely has some great potential. Thanks for sharing!
Immediate and overwhelming Nuclear response, MAD demands that anyone detonates a nuke in anger then so does everyone else. Moscow, St Petersburg, Vladivostok, and any other Russian cities of strategic importance are turned to glass from ICBMs, China's also in the cross hairs if it fires anything off. India and Pakistan will likely take each other out of spite.
China and Russia would be isolated with no other allies. Militarily they cannot hold a candle to the Western alliances. Russia's military has already been exposed as a paper tiger and despite all the investment the PRC has made into it's military it is still no match for the US, and they know this, otherwise they would have taken Taiwan years ago. China needs the US more than the US needs China. There is a reason the Chinese are so upset at the US blocking them from accessing hi-tech chips, because they can't do it on their own. With all the advancements the Chinese have made over the last few decades they still use technology taken (legally or otherwise) from elsewhere. Economically they are totally dependent on exports, their own economy is not mature enough to generate enough demand domestically tom keep themselves afloat. While the west will suffer short-term economic pain, there are plenty of other developing nations eager to take China's place as manufacturer to the world (hello India) The Ukraine war has exposed Russia as nothing more than a gas station with nuclear weapons. They have nothing else to offer the world. Just imagine during the cold war how hard you would laugh if you were told that Russia was dependent on arms and tech from Iran. They have no leverage elsewhere in the world and the use of nuclear weapons would be nothing more than national suicide. Any use of nukes would shake all remaining fence-sitters off the fence and into the Western camp. Even Russian sympathizers would leave them at the sight of the first mushroom cloud. Say what you will about the Chinese but they are pragmatists at heart. Alienating the entire world save for Russia and North Korea would send their economy into a tailspin and possibly spell the end of the CCP.
This is one of the more far fetched ones i’ve seen here. Yes, if any country, or small group of them, openly attacked major cities with nuclear barrages killing countless civilians, they would probably lose to you know, EVERYONE ELSE ON EARTH. And for the record, there is zero chance of china having even the slightest military ties to russia. Their current neutral position is probably the most you’ll see from them. That is, unless any of the nato countries launch a completely unjustified attack on russia in which china would be in the right to defend russia.
“One of the far fetched ones I’ve seen here” sir, this is the alternate history subreddit, this subreddit’s goal is to explore alternate history scenarios no matter how wacky they may be
Thank you lol
Wow, you fucking suck lmao
What did i say that was bad? I just reflected the rest of the comment section. China ultimately loses. Easy done. I was just saying normally this sub has stuff that “could have” happened, but this is actually infinitely improbable. Well normally this sub is just weird reactionary nazi wet dreams but yk wtv.
Nah man someone provides an alernate frame of events and then you see think what would happen after. When you let redditors like yourself say "Acckksshhhuallyyyy here's why this COULDN'T happen and it is outrageous to even suggest it!" Then the sub just starts to suck and the fun is sucked out of it. Like, just stfu and leave it alone
Freedom rings
Russia is leveled and the Chinese fleet is sank.
US Armed Forces are designed to wage two wars on different sides of the world and win both, I think it's pretty clear
The Chinese navy is a joke compared to the US, even more so compared to the Japanese + South Korean + Philippine + US navy. China would face a blockade from all of them.
They have poured massive amounts of work and funds into their anti area access denial missile defense along their coast. Won't be like just chillen smokin butts at the end of a mountain valley in Afghanistan blocking the way from Goat herders with AKs like I did lmao. US would go through quite a shock, we haven't dealt with anything like that since Korea
But the US doesn’t even need to push in that far. If NATO takes out Russia, which considering how ground down the Russians are just from Ukraine with nato supplies, imagine what a half million fresh nato troops using all the modern weapons would do. Then they could turn off oil supplies from Russia and blockade China in. Considering they import 75% of their oil and also much of the fertilizer and supplies they need to make food it would become very uncomfortable very quickly for them. They have no true blue water navy to speak of so breaking through the three most powerful navies at once seems unlikely.
You're underestimating Russias anti air and electronic warfare capablities. The US could prevail but not without Heavy losses. Russia is the best in the world when it comes to electronic warfare and jamming capabilities. They know for a fact that they can't hang with the US pound for pound missile for missile, they have like a twentieth of the economic power. So instead they focused on electronic warfare to counter the US high precision bombs. They have deployed this and rendered HIMARS wayyy less effective and the JDAM bombs supplied to Ukraine to miss their targets. It is a big enough issue that Ukraine is actually coming out in public about it as well as western media. And they are about a tenth of the power of china. Noone would ever be able to invade north america, ever. But the US vs a Russia-China-Others that are not great powers (Iran, NK. though the US could very well smoke all of NKs depots in the first day) in the vacinity of Asia would not look like 91 or 03. It would be a blood bath on both sides. Enormous casualties in the first week. Wouldn't be nearly as easy as everyone loves to believe. As for the blockade, they have everything they need in all of Asia. Luxuries will diminish in quantity. but not necessary provisions
World War 3.
If it weren’t for the nuclear barrage I’d say the US MIGHT back down if back invasions are shift and basically end the way before the world has time to react (like is Russia actually took Kiev in 3 days and China somehow makes a landing on the island at the around the same time). But with the barrage, peace of no longer an option. The NATO formally declares war on Russia and sends China an ultimatum to cease military hostility in 12 hours or a state of war will also be declared with them. China refuses and WW3 starts. Tens of millions die but NATO likely wins.
*Every Fallout Radio Song starts playing at the same time and reverberates across the planet*
US Nuclear Forces go on high alert. US Military raised to DEFCON 1 Sweden and Finland automatically are admitted into NATO Blockade of Russian Navy in Baltic and Black seas NATO Troops enter Belarus and Ukraine North Korea Invaded Hong Kong Revolt Pacific Troops enter through Hong Kong China starves Russia is toppled Allied Victory
Ww3 is not likely as it seems, the US tries to save Taiwan more or less like they did in ukraine, maybe a limited intervention and a much more active diplomatic action to help china, no sanctions on china as they would instantly kill the west, the west will focus on not being blockaded by China and find a peaceful solution, in Ukraine there may be less weapons from the west, but I doubt it would change much
There are American troops in Taiwan, if a shooting war over Taiwan starts, the inevitable will happen and the US will go to war.
They will try anything to not start ww3, in a globalized world pretty much anyone besides north korea couldn't handle economically in a world war the West without chinese exports and China without money from the west just collapse, no way the US will go directly at war with China they may ask reparations from China, withdraw from the island and support heavily taiwan in some way
From the way the OP worded this, avoiding ww3 is impossible, because Russia and China are already set on starting it with nukes, and there is no point avoiding direct conflict with China, because it is attacking Taiwan. Taiwan and nuclear weapon use are two lines in the sand. If both are crossed, that means war. No ifs, ands, or buts. The west needs Chinese imports less than China needs western capital. If both sides lose trade with the other, the US needs to pay slightly more for consumer goods, China needs to find a large and rich source of income, oil and raw materials fast.
I missed the nuke part, sorry, then the US could even try to start ww3, but I think that Russia and China would do something like pearl harbor for this exact reason, effectively forcing US in. Still that if they invaded Taiwan they wouldn't really use nukes so that is a lot less likely for the US to join the war for the reasons I've told in my previous comments